Sox Add Crawford and Gonzalez, Still Might Not Make Playoffs

[Plumpamania]

Ah you Sox fans are already thinking you will win the Series.

[italstallianion]

Ah you Sox fans are already thinking you will win the Series.

 

 

 

Yankees fan? I guess that your original post makes more sense now knowing that you aren't a Sox fan.

[a700hitter]

Ah you Sox fans are already thinking you will win the Series.

. Especially if the Skanks don't get Lee.

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

Ah you Sox fans are already thinking you will win the Series.

 

What do you want us to say? After picking A-Gon and Crawford we will miss the playoffs? We have arguably the best lineup in the league. Just because we haven't picked up a bullpen arm doesn't mean we can't win the world seres. We are looking for one now.

[YAZMAN]

WAAAA WAAAA THE SOX AREN'T A FINISHED PRODUCT SEVERAL MONTHS BEFORE SPRING TRAINING WAAAAA!!!

 

http://www.thewolverineblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/oh-noes.jpg

 

Is that Rachel Dratch?

[Plumpamania]

So I didn't think I'd be remembered. I'm no where NEAR being a Yankees fan, look up my past posts bashing Jackson repeatedly and any Yankee fan since 2005. I just don't post all the time.

 

I will say however being confident is good, but these forums have grown into being arrogant.

[Dipre]

So I didn't think I'd be remembered. I'm no where NEAR being a Yankees fan, look up my past posts bashing Jackson repeatedly and any Yankee fan since 2005. I just don't post all the time.

 

I will say however being confident is good, but these forums have grown into being arrogant.

 

WE HAVE PLUMP!!!!!!!!

[Plumpamania]

I knew Dipre would get me!

[italstallianion]

So I didn't think I'd be remembered. I'm no where NEAR being a Yankees fan' date=' [b']look up my past posts bashing Jackson repeatedly [/b]and any Yankee fan since 2005. I just don't post all the time.

 

I will say however being confident is good, but these forums have grown into being arrogant.

 

 

We all bash Jacksonian, even other Yankee fans.

[Plumpamania]

Good thing you DIDN'T READ anything AFTER that. Bandwaggoner.

[italstallianion]

Good thing you DIDN'T READ anything AFTER that. Bandwaggoner.

 

 

I'm going to let your misguided post slide because I don't know you too well, however, despite the fact that I am a lot of things, snarky, arrogant, confrontational, fat...etc, one thing that cannot possibly describe me is the term "bandwagoner". Not only does that have absolutely nothing to do with ripping on Jacko, but I'd like to meet a bandwagon Jaguars or Flyers fan. That said, one cannot refer to the Red Sox fanbase as "you Sox fans" without people assuming that you are not a part of it.

[Dipre]

Calm down Plump. After a tough 2010, it's normal the kids are excited about the upgrades to the team.

 

Welcome back, my friend!

[Plumpamania]

Excitement is great, I'm excited too, but everything I read is about us goin' to the Series already, yet the biggest hole in our team last year was the 'pen and there were no injuries to it, and no upgrades there as yet. Everyone and their mother knew we were gonna land Gonzalzez, and most though Werth would be here not Crawford, either way content. I'll be happier when we upgrade what needs to be upgraded.

[italstallianion]

I agree, however I wouldn't have made a thread about it considering the offseason is so young. If it was March and we still hadn't signed any relievers, then maybe the thread would have been useful.

[Plumpamania]

This thread is useful now or in March since our line up is set. I mean sure what the hell I'm now AFK from posting until March via Stallion's excellent advice.

[italstallianion]

This thread is useful now or in March since our line up is set. I mean sure what the hell I'm now AFK from posting until March via Stallion's excellent advice.

 

 

I said the thread was useless, not you as a poster.

[BSN07]

Plump I remember you. But for the newer guys that don't, I can see how your posts may have come off different to them, thus leading to some of the response's I have been reading

 

The BP is an issue. But even with that and the injuries, the team was still competitive until the last week of the season. Given the hopeful healthy return of key players + the additions of Agon and Crawford, this team could very well over come a mediocre BP and still be a contender for a WS. They have Paps, Bard, Wake and Doubront right now. I'd like to see them sign Fuentes and Guerrier and/or depending on the Martin talks, trade for a guy like Nunez(FL) or Tejeda(KC). I think that woud be a very good BP. I'd also be ok with bringing Oki back instead of Fuentes on a shorter less $ deal. I think he could rebound.

[jacksonianmarch]

Offensively speaking, you go from starting Cameron, Beltre, and Victor Martinez to starting Crawford, AdGon and Saltalamacchia. Your offense takes a bit of a hit "when healthy" because while Crawford and AdGon adequately replace VMart and Beltre, the loss of Cameron in the lineup compared to the addition of Salty takes you down a peg (unless he finally realizes his potential). Your defense also takes a bit of a hit. Cameron and Crawford are similar defensively, so the OF is a wash, and if it moves Ells back to CF, then you weaken the D a little in CF and strengthen it in LF. By moving Salty into the C spot and losing VMart, you essentially have a wash there with VMart being more experienced in playcalling and a better blocker, while Salty has the better arm. In the IF, you move Youk to 3b, where he is an unknown in terms of UZR, but likely nowhere near Beltre, and you replace him at 1b with AdGon, both GG defenders. The biggest offensive addition is the fact that Youk and Pedroia should be healthy. Together, they missed 120 games last year. Plus Ellsbury should be healthy, although the fact that he is dealing with pain still makes Cameron's role in Boston a lot more important. Regardless, from an "on paper" perspective, the sox lineup is a little weaker in projection that what a combo of projection and production from 2010 was. This means, project out Youk, Pedey, Cameron, and Ellsbury while taking VMart and Beltre at their stats for 2010. But, the likelihood of losing 4 starters for the stretch run is very very low. Regardless, the sox lineup should mash and their D takes a minor hit depending on how Youk takes to 3rd.

 

The rotation has an ace with Lester. I think Buchholz pitches to a solid #2, but I doubt he can come close to a sub 3ERA next season. But I think the sox post-season and World Series hopes rely on 2 guys not previously mentioned. Beckett and Lackey need to man up. If Beckett comes out and is the hot/cold guy with recurrent nagging injured that he has been for the last 2 seasons, then the sox will be hurt significantly. Especially with the fact that Wake is your #6 and NOBODY is there as minor league depth. Lackey gave innings, but he also has a bit of an injury history. I think his durability will be more important than his performance in 2010. Then on to DiceK, who I think the sox cannot deal without getting a pitcher back. With the loss of Kelly and the conversion of Doubront into a pen arm for 2011, the sox really cannot deal from their "strength" since they have a void after the old knuckler.

 

The pen is definitely the soft underbelly. Bard damn near threw his arm off in the pen last yr. Papelbon showed regression for a 3rd straight year, and Theo dealt away or non-tendered every arm inbetween not named Scott (I shouldnt be a major leaguer) Atchison. The sox as is will make the playoffs, IMO, and I dont think it will be close. But their pen is the reason why they might struggle vs good teams. We'll see who they add. I thought Downs was a guaranteed sock, but I guess not.

[Palodios]

I think it makes no sense to compare 2011's lineup to what last's year's lineup could have been. Cameron and Ellsbury weren't in the outfield-- Hermida and Mcdonald were. Crawford is a huge upgrade defensively to that position. The infield should be a wash defensively by replacing Beltre/Hall with Youk/Pedroia.

[ORS]

Offensively speaking' date=' you go from starting Cameron, Beltre, and Victor Martinez to starting Crawford, AdGon and Saltalamacchia. Your offense takes a bit of a hit "when healthy" because while Crawford and AdGon adequately replace VMart and Beltre, the loss of Cameron in the lineup compared to the addition of Salty takes you down a peg (unless he finally realizes his potential). Your defense also takes a bit of a hit. Cameron and Crawford are similar defensively, so the OF is a wash, and if it moves Ells back to CF, then you weaken the D a little in CF and strengthen it in LF. By moving Salty into the C spot and losing VMart, you essentially have a wash there with VMart being more experienced in playcalling and a better blocker, while Salty has the better arm. In the IF, you move Youk to 3b, where he is an unknown in terms of UZR, but likely nowhere near Beltre, and you replace him at 1b with AdGon, both GG defenders. The biggest offensive addition is the fact that Youk and Pedroia should be healthy. Together, they missed 120 games last year. Plus Ellsbury should be healthy, although the fact that he is dealing with pain still makes Cameron's role in Boston a lot more important. Regardless, from an "on paper" perspective, the sox lineup is a little weaker in projection that what a combo of projection and production from 2010 was. This means, project out Youk, Pedey, Cameron, and Ellsbury while taking VMart and Beltre at their stats for 2010. But, the likelihood of losing 4 starters for the stretch run is very very low. Regardless, the sox lineup should mash and their D takes a minor hit depending on how Youk takes to 3rd.[/quote']

This is a mess of an analysis. There's a lot of apples to oranges comparisons here, several ommissions, and some sketchy assumptions. Let's make it a little easier....

 

What they got out of each position, the new player there, & better/worse/same expectations:

 

[table]Position|Stats|2011 Player|Expectation

C|.273/.330/.463|Saltalamacchia|Worse, not by a ton though

1B|.279/.371/.478|Gonzalez|Better, mabye by a lot due to park

2B|.260/.332/.435|Pedroia|Better, not by a ton though

SS|.273/.334/.403|Scutaro/Lowrie|Same/Better, depends on Lowrie

3B|.321/.364/.554|Youk|Better, not by a ton though

LF|.230/.303/.396|Crawford|Are you s***ing me?

CF|.234/.301/.381|Ellsbury|Better, probably by a lot

RF|.269/.345/.456|Drew|Better, very off year for Drew

DH|.264/.364/.503|Ortiz|Enigma, 8/10 months he's been a lot better[/table]

 

How you get that they have become weaker offensively is an absolute joke. I don't care if you projected what the normal starters would have meant to last year's team, that's fantasy. The reality is they were the #2 run producing team, and they look to be a lot better.

[Dipre]

And the ORS hammer hits Jacko square in the forehead yet again.

[jacksonianmarch]

It's called reading, and obviously you two dolts do not know how to do it.

 

I said to take the projection for the injured players in 2010 and the actual for the non-injured players and put that together and compare it. For arguments sake, take the 2009 numbers for Ellsbury and Cameron and stick to OPS for Youkilis and Pedroia.

 

Catcher

2010- Victor Martinez- .844OPS 20HR 79RBI

2011- Jarrod Saltalamacchia- career .701OPS with 23HR in 813AB

 

How this isnt "worse by a ton" is incredible. Martinez is the second best offensive catcher in the game. Salty has been a AAAA player for the past few seasons and this might be his last chance at a quasi starting gig. This is a MASSIVE dropoff

 

First base:

2010- Kevin Youkilis .975OPS on pace for 27HR

2010- Adrian Gonzalez .904OPS 31HR.

 

This is pretty much a wash on this end. I think Gonzalez and Youkilis are comparable defensively, and I think Gonzalez could put up a high .900s OPS in this park and this lineup

 

Third base

2010- Adrian Beltre .918OPS 28HR

2011- Kevin Youkilis .975OPS, on pace for 27HR

 

Offensively, when comparing 2010 to 2011, this is an advantage Red Sox, but not that huge IMO. In terms of reliability, having Youk and AdGon vs Youk and Beltre, the sox win out big time since Adrian is very volatile. That being said, strictly from a 2010 vs 2011 standpoint, this is a mild win for the sox offensively. From a defensive standpoint, this is a loss, and could be a major loss depending on how he plays over at 3b. Beltre was a gamechanger over there, and we dont know if Youkilis can even be above average let alone GG caliber. So overall, this is a wash, IMO as well

 

OF

2010 Mike Cameron- total lost season, lets go back to 2009 for comparison's sake where he hit 24HR and had a .794OPS

2011 Carl Crawford- .851OPS, 19HR 47SB.

 

This is obviously quite an upgrade offensively. I doubt Crawford reaches close to 20HR in this park, but he has proven to be pretty reliable in the .300AVG and .350OBP area. His defense in LF is superb as well. Now, strictly from comparison's sake, Cameron in CF with Ellsbury in LF was to be a better defensive outfield than Crawford and Ellsbury, but it never materialized due to injury.

 

What I am saying is that the sox replaced the parts they had to. They upgraded appropriately to a team that was already getting internal upgrades in terms of health. My beef with their initial rumors of letting AdGon go to FA before getting him and going with Lowrie at 3b, maybe or maybe not getting Werth, etc made the sox have to rely on total health again to field a solid offense. Now, even if they are unlucky and a few guys go down, they should still be a top 2 offense. If all stay healthy, then they will be challenging the Yanks for #1, and in that park, I am guessing they will overtake them.

[ORS]

It's called reading, and obviously you two dolts do not know how to do it.

 

I said to take the projection for the injured players in 2010 and the actual for the non-injured players and put that together and compare it. For arguments sake, take the 2009 numbers for Ellsbury and Cameron and stick to OPS for Youkilis and Pedroia.

 

Catcher

2010- Victor Martinez- .844OPS 20HR 79RBI

2011- Jarrod Saltalamacchia- career .701OPS with 23HR in 813AB

 

How this isnt "worse by a ton" is incredible. Martinez is the second best offensive catcher in the game. Salty has been a AAAA player for the past few seasons and this might be his last chance at a quasi starting gig. This is a MASSIVE dropoff

 

First base:

2010- Kevin Youkilis .975OPS on pace for 27HR

2010- Adrian Gonzalez .904OPS 31HR.

 

This is pretty much a wash on this end. I think Gonzalez and Youkilis are comparable defensively, and I think Gonzalez could put up a high .900s OPS in this park and this lineup

 

Third base

2010- Adrian Beltre .918OPS 28HR

2011- Kevin Youkilis .975OPS, on pace for 27HR

 

Offensively, when comparing 2010 to 2011, this is an advantage Red Sox, but not that huge IMO. In terms of reliability, having Youk and AdGon vs Youk and Beltre, the sox win out big time since Adrian is very volatile. That being said, strictly from a 2010 vs 2011 standpoint, this is a mild win for the sox offensively. From a defensive standpoint, this is a loss, and could be a major loss depending on how he plays over at 3b. Beltre was a gamechanger over there, and we dont know if Youkilis can even be above average let alone GG caliber. So overall, this is a wash, IMO as well

 

OF

2010 Mike Cameron- total lost season, lets go back to 2009 for comparison's sake where he hit 24HR and had a .794OPS

2011 Carl Crawford- .851OPS, 19HR 47SB.

 

This is obviously quite an upgrade offensively. I doubt Crawford reaches close to 20HR in this park, but he has proven to be pretty reliable in the .300AVG and .350OBP area. His defense in LF is superb as well. Now, strictly from comparison's sake, Cameron in CF with Ellsbury in LF was to be a better defensive outfield than Crawford and Ellsbury, but it never materialized due to injury.

 

What I am saying is that the sox replaced the parts they had to. They upgraded appropriately to a team that was already getting internal upgrades in terms of health. My beef with their initial rumors of letting AdGon go to FA before getting him and going with Lowrie at 3b, maybe or maybe not getting Werth, etc made the sox have to rely on total health again to field a solid offense. Now, even if they are unlucky and a few guys go down, they should still be a top 2 offense. If all stay healthy, then they will be challenging the Yanks for #1, and in that park, I am guessing they will overtake them.

I read what you said about using projections for the players that lost time in 2010, and I, appropriately, called it fantasy. It's why I posted what they actually got from each position. It's why you are absolutely right that Martinez is miles better than Saltalamacchia at this point offensively, but since Martinez didn't catch every game (there was a bunch of Kevin Cash last year), your comparison is weak because it makes the assumption that the platoon for 2011 has to match Martinez, and Martinez only. This is lazy analysis on your part. From the catcher they got a .793 OPS last year, due in large part to Martinez. Saltalamacchia projects for a mid-.700 OPS this year. That's not a ton.

 

Once 2010 is on the books, it doesn't matter what they could have been on paper. They were #2 in runs scored last year. Number 2. They look to be significantly better at several positions across the diamond. They are not weaker offensively than they were last year. Period.

[Dipre]

I read what you said about using projections for the players that lost time in 2010, and I, appropriately, called it fantasy. It's why I posted what they actually got from each position. It's why you are absolutely right that Martinez is miles better than Saltalamacchia at this point offensively, but since Martinez didn't catch every game (there was a bunch of Kevin Cash last year), your comparison is weak because it makes the assumption that the platoon for 2011 has to match Martinez, and Martinez only. This is lazy analysis on your part. From the catcher they got a .793 OPS last year, due in large part to Martinez. Saltalamacchia projects for a mid-.700 OPS this year. That's not a ton.

 

Once 2010 is on the books, it doesn't matter what they could have been on paper. They were #2 in runs scored last year. Number 2. They look to be significantly better at several positions across the diamond. They are not weaker offensively than they were last year. Period.

 

You should've known your argument was a winning one when Mr. Extra Chromosome there resorted to name-calling and numbers residing in fantasy to "create" an argument.

 

Anyways, this is the same yearly attempt to put down the offense. Remember last year? It was going to be a much much weaker offense, with Beltre not providing league average offense, and several other players taking a step back due to nitpicky reasons.

 

How'd that work out?

[ORS]

Not only that, but look closer at what he's doing in that 2nd post. He's throwing defensive projections in to support his analysis of how they will compare "on paper" to last year's offense. He's throwing paint against the wall and trying to sell it as art.

[a700hitter]

Jacko is just so blown away by the fact that the Sox spent $300 million on two young studs that he needs to explain it to himself in a way that he finds acceptable. This is what lots of Sox fans have been doing for years when the Yanks went out and bought the biggest stars. Now, you can see how stupid it looks when Jacko is doing it. That's how stupid many of you looked when you were analyzing the acquisition of Tex, CC and AJ in 2009. There's no minimizing it. It's huge, and the Yankee fans are on the other side for a change. Too freakin bad.

[Emmz]

It's called reading, and obviously you two dolts do not know how to do it.

 

I said to take the projection for the injured players in 2010 and the actual for the non-injured players and put that together and compare it. For arguments sake, take the 2009 numbers for Ellsbury and Cameron and stick to OPS for Youkilis and Pedroia.

 

Catcher

2010- Victor Martinez- .844OPS 20HR 79RBI

2011- Jarrod Saltalamacchia- career .701OPS with 23HR in 813AB

 

How this isnt "worse by a ton" is incredible. Martinez is the second best offensive catcher in the game. Salty has been a AAAA player for the past few seasons and this might be his last chance at a quasi starting gig. This is a MASSIVE dropoff

 

First base:

2010- Kevin Youkilis .975OPS on pace for 27HR

2010- Adrian Gonzalez .904OPS 31HR.

 

This is pretty much a wash on this end. I think Gonzalez and Youkilis are comparable defensively, and I think Gonzalez could put up a high .900s OPS in this park and this lineup

 

Third base

2010- Adrian Beltre .918OPS 28HR

2011- Kevin Youkilis .975OPS, on pace for 27HR

 

Offensively, when comparing 2010 to 2011, this is an advantage Red Sox, but not that huge IMO. In terms of reliability, having Youk and AdGon vs Youk and Beltre, the sox win out big time since Adrian is very volatile. That being said, strictly from a 2010 vs 2011 standpoint, this is a mild win for the sox offensively. From a defensive standpoint, this is a loss, and could be a major loss depending on how he plays over at 3b. Beltre was a gamechanger over there, and we dont know if Youkilis can even be above average let alone GG caliber. So overall, this is a wash, IMO as well

 

OF

2010 Mike Cameron- total lost season, lets go back to 2009 for comparison's sake where he hit 24HR and had a .794OPS

2011 Carl Crawford- .851OPS, 19HR 47SB.

 

This is obviously quite an upgrade offensively. I doubt Crawford reaches close to 20HR in this park, but he has proven to be pretty reliable in the .300AVG and .350OBP area. His defense in LF is superb as well. Now, strictly from comparison's sake, Cameron in CF with Ellsbury in LF was to be a better defensive outfield than Crawford and Ellsbury, but it never materialized due to injury.

 

What I am saying is that the sox replaced the parts they had to. They upgraded appropriately to a team that was already getting internal upgrades in terms of health. My beef with their initial rumors of letting AdGon go to FA before getting him and going with Lowrie at 3b, maybe or maybe not getting Werth, etc made the sox have to rely on total health again to field a solid offense. Now, even if they are unlucky and a few guys go down, they should still be a top 2 offense. If all stay healthy, then they will be challenging the Yanks for #1, and in that park, I am guessing they will overtake them.

 

Who wants to read your biased garbage. I thought even you would admit that the Sox have taken a step forward, but you not only didn't do that, you also seem to think that they've taken a step back. Not only did you completely miss on the catcher comparison, but you cherrypicked stats that make it almost seem like you might be right. For example, Gonzo's OPS, while you fail to acknowledge he played in the pitcher's division to end all pitcher's divisions, trying to use Cameron's 2009 season, etc.

 

Fail analysis doc, it's not a tumah.

[jacksonianmarch]

Once again, you guys just cannot actually read what I am saying once again. I said that the sox, on paper with what was known about the players you just lost, look to be pretty similar offensively. And, with the unlikely occurence of 4 starters missing significant playing time, you should be a lot better than you were last yr and may actually be better than you were projected to be should you have been healthy. But instead, you sit back and pull the same old ********. ORS, you're the worst of them, twisting the argument into whatever you want it to be, although the majority of the time you are arguing against something that wasnt said.

[ORS]

No, no, no. I have read what you said, I got your idea of using projections for the 2010 roster, and I called BS, because that's what it was. Then I showed you how a tradeoff analysis should be done. I'm not twisting anything, I am directly refuting your analysis without creating a strawman. You just don't like it because you look foolish with what you are saying.

 

EDIT: And "similar" is a laugh. They should be significantly better, but you'll never say that because their uniform contains red socks and not blue pinstripes.

[jacksonianmarch]

My god you are a dumbass. I said they could put up similar production IF THEY SUSTAINED THE SAME AMOUNT OF INJURIES AS LAST SEASON. I said that if healthy, they should reclaim the top spot in terms of runs scored in a season.

 

What I am saying is that the sox replaced the parts they had to. They upgraded appropriately to a team that was already getting internal upgrades in terms of health. My beef with their initial rumors of letting AdGon go to FA before getting him and going with Lowrie at 3b, maybe or maybe not getting Werth, etc made the sox have to rely on total health again to field a solid offense. Now, even if they are unlucky and a few guys go down, they should still be a top 2 offense. If all stay healthy, then they will be challenging the Yanks for #1, and in that park, I am guessing they will overtake them.

 

Reading is very fundamental ORS. Very, very fundamental