The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[a700hitter]

Daily reminder to the FO:

 

Get Carl Crawford

 

Not interested in DH Dunn or Fatty Fielder. Get Crawford.

[a700hitter]

... And right after you get Crawford get a starting catcher. I don't like so called "projects". I don't care how much talent they have. No one had more talent than Wily Mo. Look how that ended. When is the last time that one of these "projects" worked out for the Sox? Please tell me that there were some.

[Dojji]

Yeah, there isn't a single veteran catcher on this market that I would consider anything other than a project. Olivo? Please. He's a slugger, but he'll hit for a sub-.300 OBP more often than not and make a lot of outs, and he ain't exactly a spring chicken. He spent the entire last half of last year undoing all the good he'd done in his first half. He's streaky, undisciplined, and undependable when the chips are down and the performance of the teams he's been on while he was on them is a big tell of that.

 

Given my druthers, I'd prefer to bring in Russel Martin if he's non-tendered over Miguel Olivo. None of the explosive upside of an Olivo in power sense, but a solid and internally consistent skillset in its own right, combining OBP, solid defense and above average baserunning (well above average for a catcher). And unlike Olivo, Martin seems to be a well above average gamecaller and strategist, pitchers who throw to him seem to do better than average while they do so at least. It's no replacement for VMart, but then nothing on this market is so it's time to lower our expectations on that score.

[BSN07]

Daily reminder to the FO:

 

Get Carl Crawford

 

Not interested in DH Dunn or Fatty Fielder. Get Crawford.

Crawford has a lot of positives. But I don't see him with the Sox while they still have a younger cheaper version entering his prime in Ellsbury. The one tool you could argue Crawford has on Ellsbury is power. But given the fence in RF moving in and Ellsbury development physically, I would wager he could put up similar power numbers to Crawford. Besides Crawford is being strong in his stance that he does not want to be a lead off hitter. Taking that into consideration, he is not the middle of the order bat the Sox need. In the end I won't be upset if they get him. Probably more surprised if anything.

Yeah, there isn't a single veteran catcher on this market that I would consider anything other than a project. Olivo? Please. He's a slugger, but he'll hit for a sub-.300 OBP more often than not and make a lot of outs, and he ain't exactly a spring chicken. He spent the entire last half of last year undoing all the good he'd done in his first half. He's streaky, undisciplined, and undependable when the chips are down and the performance of the teams he's been on while he was on them is a big tell of that.

 

Given my druthers, I'd prefer to bring in Russel Martin if he's non-tendered over Miguel Olivo. None of the explosive upside of an Olivo in power sense, but a solid and internally consistent skillset in its own right, combining OBP, solid defense and above average baserunning (well above average for a catcher). And unlike Olivo, Martin seems to be a well above average gamecaller and strategist, pitchers who throw to him seem to do better than average while they do so at least. It's no replacement for VMart, but then nothing on this market is so it's time to lower our expectations on that score.

 

I would much rather have Martin then Olivo. Even if it means giving up a prospect compared to just $.

[BSN07]

... And right after you get Crawford get a starting catcher. I don't like so called "projects". I don't care how much talent they have. No one had more talent than Wily Mo. Look how that ended. When is the last time that one of these "projects" worked out for the Sox? Please tell me that there were some.

 

And what pitcher other then a project that may need time in the minors will sign when they can plainly see the Red Sox rotation is full? As far as I am concerned there is no pitcher right now on the market worth the money it will take to sign them. Lee included. Lee is a great pitcher, no question. My view of him is he will be good for the next 2 years, but after that it's a gamble. After that there is nothing but gambles IMO. De La Rosa? He seems more like the next Oliver Perez then a middle-top of the rotation starter, especially in the AL East. Pavano? Um no. Those look like the guys that are getting mulit year deals and not 1 year short term or rebuilding value contracts.

[a700hitter]

And what pitcher other then a project that may need time in the minors will sign when they can plainly see the Red Sox rotation is full? As far as I am concerned there is no pitcher right now on the market worth the money it will take to sign them. Lee included. Lee is a great pitcher' date=' no question. My view of him is he will be good for the next 2 years, but after that it's a gamble. After that there is nothing but gambles IMO. De La Rosa? He seems more like the next Oliver Perez then a middle-top of the rotation starter, especially in the AL East. Pavano? Um no. Those look like the guys that are getting mulit year deals and not 1 year short term or rebuilding value contracts.[/quote']Read my post. I asked fora starting catcher, not pitcher. The project I was referring to was Salty. That's why we need the starting catcher. We're full up at starting pitcher. Sorry for the confusion. I should have been more clear that I was talking about Salty.

[a700hitter]

Yeah, there isn't a single veteran catcher on this market that I would consider anything other than a project. Olivo? Please. He's a slugger, but he'll hit for a sub-.300 OBP more often than not and make a lot of outs, and he ain't exactly a spring chicken. He spent the entire last half of last year undoing all the good he'd done in his first half. He's streaky, undisciplined, and undependable when the chips are down and the performance of the teams he's been on while he was on them is a big tell of that.

 

Given my druthers, I'd prefer to bring in Russel Martin if he's non-tendered over Miguel Olivo. None of the explosive upside of an Olivo in power sense, but a solid and internally consistent skillset in its own right, combining OBP, solid defense and above average baserunning (well above average for a catcher). And unlike Olivo, Martin seems to be a well above average gamecaller and strategist, pitchers who throw to him seem to do better than average while they do so at least. It's no replacement for VMart, but then nothing on this market is so it's time to lower our expectations on that score.

A.J. Pierzsinski isn't a project. As for Russell Martin, we don't need a catcher with a bad hip. There is a reason he is being non-tendered. No thanks to a guy who will be assigned to the MASH unit.

[ORS]

AJ Pierzynski looks like he starting that "I've caught over 1200 games" slide into awful.

[a700hitter]

AJ Pierzynski looks like he starting that "I've caught over 1200 games" slide into awful.

It could be, but we need some insurance in case Salty can't handle the job. Tek has slid into awful a couple of years ago. There just aren't many options on the FA market. Maybe they could acquire Ianetta. The big prize would be if they could acquired Suzuki, but he would cost a bundle, so I don't think it is very likely.

[ORS]

I'd like them to look at trying to get David Ross from Atlanta. I don't think he'd cost a ton, and would be a decent option.

 

Of course, if they sign Werth and Dunn, and the lineup is....

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Ortiz

Youk

Dunn

Werth

Drew

Scutaro/Lowrie

Saltalamacchia/whoever if he can't hack it defensively

 

...it wouldn't be the end of the world.

[Palodios]

They've been looking at Barajas a lot apparently, and he's garbage offensively and defensively recently. So hopefully that means they'll upgrade the other parts of the roster.

[a700hitter]

I'd like them to look at trying to get David Ross from Atlanta. I don't think he'd cost a ton, and would be a decent option.

 

Of course, if they sign Werth and Dunn, and the lineup is....

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Ortiz

Youk

Dunn

Werth

Drew

Scutaro/Lowrie

Saltalamacchia/whoever if he can't hack it defensively

 

...it wouldn't be the end of the world.

I have very little hope that Salty can hack it defensively, more likely he'll be a defensive hack. His record for throwing out base runners has been atrocious. Believe it or not but it is significantly worse than VMart and Varitek and even Javy Lopez.

[a700hitter]

Have Phillies made an offer to Werth? This is not solid information but:

 

http://www.buckslocalnews.com/articles/2010/11/29/bucks_sports/doc4cf3ab25dc21b712676088.txt

[Dojji]

David Ross is a career backup. A good one, but still more the good version of Doug Mirabelli than Joe Mauer. I wouldn't expect him to keep his numbers up in a starting role -- or someone would have given him one by now.

[a700hitter]

The more I look at his stats the more I think getting Lance Berkman for 1 season would not be a bad thing.

[Dojji]

I could stand it. He's only a year removed from some fairly nifty numbers.

[PineRider]

That's a question worthy of further exploration, no?

 

Since 2006 (per BB Ref):

 

Dunn: 787 G, 3266 PA

Fielder: 677 G, 3386 PA

 

Dunn: 99 Runs Above Replacement (RAR); 20 RAR/YR; 10.2 WAR Total

Fielder: 152 Runs Above Replacement (RAR); 30 RAR/YR; 15.6 WAR Total

 

oWAR (Wins above replacement, without concern for fielding. Offensive measure)

 

Dunn: 17.0 Total; 3.5 AVG

Fielder: 19.4 Total; 3.9 AVG

 

REGULAR STATS:

 

Overall

 

Dunn: .252/.378/.524/.902, 1407 TB, 132 OPS+

(Per-162): 41 HR/105 RBI/ 292 TB

 

Fielder: .279/.386/.536/.922, 1555 TB, 140 OPS+

(Per-162): 38 HR/107 RBI/ 316 TB

 

 

I don't think those would justify $100m more, but Fielder being young and very consistent in his own right will probably warrant a bigger payday.

 

Dunn is really bad in the field, and that's where his reduced value comes in. If either he or Fielder would be the DH, their offensive differences won't be worth a huge difference in pay. If they are hiring a DH, Fielder is who I would prefer if $$ is not an issue.

 

Adrian Gonzalez is my preference above both, obviously

 

 

Good post. Much appreciated. It really sheds some light (for me) on comparing the two players.

 

Thanks for bringing some IQ back to this thread. :thumbsup:

[Palodios]

I could stand it. He's only a year removed from some fairly nifty numbers.

 

Was there any reason he was on career worse numbers?

[a700hitter]

Possible Roster:

 

C - A.J. Pierzinski

C - Salty

1B- Berkman

2B- Pedroia

SS- Scutaro

3B- Youkilis

Util- Lowrie

Util- Hall/Lopez

OF- Crawford

OF- Ellsbury

OF- Drew

OF- Cameron

DH- Ortiz

 

P - Lester

P - Buchholz

P - Beckett

P - Lackey

P- Dice K

 

CL- Papelbon

SU- Bard

LR - Downs

LR - Dubront

RR -Atchinson

R - Open

R - Open

[PineRider]

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Youkilis

Ortiz

Werth

Berkman

Drew

Lowrie

Salty/Tek platoon

 

That is a pretty potent lineup if Berkman hits anything like he has in the past.

 

And from a700's ideas from his post above, I'd assume something like this?

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Crawford

Youkilis

Ortiz

Berkman

Drew

Scutaro

Salty/AJ Platoon

 

Which lineup do you like better?

[Dojji]

Do not want Pierzynski. That sounds like a bad idea from the word go. He was never a great catcher's catcher, and he's reaching the end of his shelf life. Combine his terrible performance this year with that and we have a poster boy for the "pay him for how he used to perform" crowd. Besides, dude's an idiot.

 

If you're worried about Salty, you want to bring in a guy who is what Salty isn't. That means a noodle-armed, inconsistent attitude problem is about the last thing you want. Martin is several times better than that as an option, even with the bad recent power numbers he's consistent enough offensivey to put up a decent OBP, he's got a good arm and he handles the pitching staff pretty well. He also has some medium-term bounceback potential as a doubles hitter in a better hitters' park. And for the clincher, his knees are healthy enough that he can steal basis, while Pierzynski has more than a thousand games on his. On the whole he makes a much sounder, saner investment. I'd happily trade a midrange prospect for him if the Dodgers were interested -- not a worldbeater but maybe a Che-Hsuan Lin type whose wheels and speed would play well in the cavernous Western stadiums.

[a700hitter]

Do not want Pierzynski. That sounds like a bad idea from the word go. He was never a great catcher's catcher, and he's reaching the end of his shelf life. Combine his terrible performance this year with that and we have a poster boy for the "pay him for how he used to perform" crowd. Besides, dude's an idiot.

 

If you're worried about Salty, you want to bring in a guy who is what Salty isn't. That means a noodle-armed, inconsistent attitude problem is about the last thing you want. Martin is several times better than that as an option, even with the bad recent power numbers he's consistent enough offensivey to put up a decent OBP, he's got a good arm and he handles the pitching staff pretty well. He also has some medium-term bounceback potential as a doubles hitter in a better hitters' park. And for the clincher, his knees are healthy enough that he can steal basis, while Pierzynski has more than a thousand games on his. On the whole he makes a much sounder, saner investment. I'd happily trade a midrange prospect for him if the Dodgers were interested -- not a worldbeater but maybe a Che-Hsuan Lin type whose wheels and speed would play well in the cavernous Western stadiums.

Martin is a great catcher, but he has a bad hip. Why get a guy that will reside on the DL? That's just not a good option.

[BSN07]

Read my post. I asked fora starting catcher' date=' not pitcher. The project I was referring to was Salty. That's why we need the starting catcher. We're full up at starting pitcher. Sorry for the confusion. I should have been more clear that I was talking about Salty.[/quote']

 

My apologies good sir

[Dojji]

Martin is a great catcher' date=' but he has a bad hip. Why get a guy that will reside on the DL? That's just not a good option.[/quote']

 

Because I like his rebound potential. I don't mind Martin taking a bit of time to get back -- not only does he have a whole offseason to rehab that hip, I think you almost have to air out Salty anyway at the start of the year when the pressure is lower and you have a chance to figure out what you have. Plenty of time for Martin to get well before we really need to lean on him -- if we ever actually do.

 

But players have had hip surgery and hip injuries before and rebounded to have good years later behind the dish. This isn't a Mike Lowell situation where the guy's logged so many years worth of wear and tear on his body that his ability to recover is compromised. This is a guy in the middle of his putative prime who could probably have caught in the waning days of last season if there'd been a point to doing it that way. If you can get him by all means do, if people are worried about his health that just makes him a buy-low candidate, and with both Salty and some nice prospects at the position we can afford to take some risks over the next couple years.

[a700hitter]

Because I like his rebound potential. I don't mind Martin taking a bit of time to get back -- not only does he have a whole offseason to rehab that hip, I think you almost have to air out Salty anyway at the start of the year when the pressure is lower and you have a chance to figure out what you have. Plenty of time for Martin to get well before we really need to lean on him -- if we ever actually do.

 

But players have had hip surgery and hip injuries before and rebounded to have good years later behind the dish. This isn't a Mike Lowell situation where the guy's logged so many years worth of wear and tear on his body that his ability to recover is compromised. This is a guy in the middle of his putative prime who could probably have caught in the waning days of last season if there'd been a point to doing it that way. If you can get him by all means do, if people are worried about his health that just makes him a buy-low candidate, and with both Salty and some nice prospects at the position we can afford to take some risks over the next couple years.

I am not aware of any catchers that came back to play effectively after a hip injury.

[Dojji]

Mauer's played with a bad hip a couple times.

[Spudboy]

While we are scraping the bottom of the barrel, why not consider Gregg Zaun?

 

He's old (39-40) and has a knee injury. But he's cheap, available, and a decent defensive catcher. And he's not a black hole at the plate either.

[a700hitter]

Mauer's played with a bad hip a couple times.

I know that Mauer has had a bad and shoulder trouble from time to time, but i have not read or heard about him having a hip problem. Certainly, he has not had a hip fracture and torn labrum like Martin has.

[a700hitter]

While we are scraping the bottom of the barrel, why not consider Gregg Zaun?

 

He's old (39-40) and has a knee injury. But he's cheap, available, and a decent defensive catcher. And he's not a black hole at the plate either.

I'd rather have the fat Molina brother.

[Palodios]

The available Molina who is a FA is definitely on the back end of his career, and saw a pretty sharp decline in thrown out base-runners.