The Official 2010 Hot Stove Thread.

[a700hitter]

Statisically' date=' there's not a lot to support the magnitude of difference you keep suggesting. I think that is the core of the question, "why the hate", and not actual hate.[/quote']We'll have to see what they sign for. I think Crawford will get a much bigger contract.

[example1]

Personally I think the best move would be to trade Ellsbury while he's still cheap to maximize his value. If the Mets/Padres would take a package of Ellsbury/Kelly/Lowrie(Iglesias) for Wright or Gonzalez then I think they should make that trade. It frees up Kalish to be the CF and allows them to sign Crawford for the leadoff spot. Giving a lineup of

 

1. Crawford LF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Gonzalez/Wright 1B/3B

4. Youkillis 1B/3B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Drew RF

7. Lowrie SS

8. Kalish/Cameron CF

9. Salty C

 

Bottom of the lineup is a bit iffy but I could also see it working out extremely well

 

Of all the established players on the Sox, Ellsbury makes the most sense to move. I'm sure they are open to it.

 

Also, I don't think that bottom of the linup is iffy at all. Lowrie and Salty are better offensively than they get credit for. Lowrie especially.

 

We'll have to see what they sign for. I think Crawford will get a much bigger contract.

 

I think that's the problem. No matter what metric/statistic one looks at, he isn't one of the very best players in baseball. He's very, very good, please don't get me wrong. He's just not deserving of being one of the only 20m/year players in the game.

[a700hitter]

I think that's the problem. No matter what metric/statistic one looks at' date=' he isn't one of the very best players in baseball. He's very, very good, please don't get me wrong. He's just not deserving of being one of the only 20m/year players in the game.[/quote']The market will establish there worth. I'm betting that Crawford gets substantially more.

[Dipre]

The Werth vs. Carawford debate.

 

Personally, i think Crawford is overrated because of his speed, which, once he ages, will be the first thing to go.

 

Werth is a rare hybrid of semi 5-tool player that is usually the perfect compliment to any lineup, and he can hit both lefties and righties to boot.

 

If you look at the way the Boston Red are constructed, the stadium they play in, and the fact that Werth, albeit older than Crawford, has a skillset that will likely age better, less platoon issues (.801 career OPS vs righties), and will cost less money, i don't see how anyone can complain that the guy could be a "consolation prize" to Crawford, who has better speed, but is not the superior player overall.

 

As for the "He plays in the NL" line of thinking (which is laughable by the way), here's a list of players who have come from the NL the last couple of years to light the AL on fire:

 

Miguel Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Placido Polanco, Vladimir Guerrero, and those are just off the top of my head.

 

And the reason why the "Hitters from the NL would suck in the AL" argument is retarded has two basic reasons:

 

A) The reason why pitchers going to the NL from the NL enjoy a rise in their numbers, is not an indication of a specific "per-hitter" trend but rather a reflection of two notable differences between AL and NL lineups, one being the lack of DH, the other being the emphasis on defense at some positions (C, SS) which usually makes NL lineups "shorter" than AL lineups. However, good pitching is good pitching, and a good NL pitcher is just as likely to get out a good AL hitter as a good AL pitcher is likely to get out a good NL hitter. It's a matter of talent, and talent is shown through the numbers.

 

B ) The stupid double standard that people who use this as a basis for criticizing a player use, because they don't like "player X" but a couple posts later they'll be pining for Pujols or Hanley or Upton or whoever. Consistency please.

 

In the end, it's not about which player you have a hard-on for, but which player will help the organization win, and due to overall level of talent and cost, i believe that player is Jayson Werth.

[ORS]

Of all the established players on the Sox, Ellsbury makes the most sense to move. I'm sure they are open to it.

 

Also, I don't think that bottom of the linup is iffy at all. Lowrie and Salty are better offensively than they get credit for. Lowrie especially.

Yeah, but he's gone the aforementioned scenario.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Yeah' date=' but he's gone the aforementioned scenario.[/quote']

 

I mean there are a lot of other players/prospects that could fill that #3 spot (Doubrot, Anderson, Rizzo, Pimentel, Reddick, etc.)

 

My main point is that the Red Sox need to get a legitimate middle of the order hitter. I don't think Werth is that hitter (he's really very similar to the role Drew plays right now), but someone who is better off being the #5/6 hitter who's possibly an all-star but not superstar. Perhaps the Red Sox can wait a year to get this hitter (Gonzalez, etc.) but if teams will accept a package around Ellsbury then I think now is the time to act on someone like Gonzalez/Wright/Upton/etc.

[a700hitter]

The Werth vs. Carawford debate.

 

Personally, i think Crawford is overrated because of his speed, which, once he ages, will be the first thing to go.

 

Werth is a rare hybrid of semi 5-tool player that is usually the perfect compliment to any lineup, and he can hit both lefties and righties to boot.

 

If you look at the way the Boston Red are constructed, the stadium they play in, and the fact that Werth, albeit older than Crawford, has a skillset that will likely age better, less platoon issues (.801 career OPS vs righties), and will cost less money, i don't see how anyone can complain that the guy could be a "consolation prize" to Crawford, who has better speed, but is not the superior player overall.

 

As for the "He plays in the NL" line of thinking (which is laughable by the way), here's a list of players who have come from the NL the last couple of years to light the AL on fire:

 

Miguel Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Placido Polanco, Vladimir Guerrero, and those are just off the top of my head.

 

And the reason why the "Hitters from the NL would suck in the AL" argument is retarded has two basic reasons:

 

A) The reason why pitchers going to the NL from the NL enjoy a rise in their numbers, is not an indication of a specific "per-hitter" trend but rather a reflection of two notable differences between AL and NL lineups, one being the lack of DH, the other being the emphasis on defense at some positions (C, SS) which usually makes NL lineups "shorter" than AL lineups. However, good pitching is good pitching, and a good NL pitcher is just as likely to get out a good AL hitter as a good AL pitcher is likely to get out a good NL hitter. It's a matter of talent, and talent is shown through the numbers.

 

B ) The stupid double standard that people who use this as a basis for criticizing a player use, because they don't like "player X" but a couple posts later they'll be pining for Pujols or Hanley or Upton or whoever. Consistency please.

 

In the end, it's not about which player you have a hard-on for, but which player will help the organization win, and due to overall level of talent and cost, i believe that player is Jayson Werth.

I thought you would excoriate E1 for saying that he'd like to trade in J.D.

[Dipre]

I mean there are a lot of other players/prospects that could fill that #3 spot (Doubrot, Anderson, Rizzo, Pimentel, Reddick, etc.)

 

My main point is that the Red Sox need to get a legitimate middle of the order hitter. I don't think Werth is that hitter (he's really very similar to the role Drew plays right now), but someone who is better off being the #5/6 hitter who's possibly an all-star but not superstar. Perhaps the Red Sox can wait a year to get this hitter (Gonzalez, etc.) but if teams will accept a package around Ellsbury then I think now is the time to act on someone like Gonzalez/Wright/Upton/etc.

 

They could also sign Werth, trade for Gonzales, keep 'Tek and field the following lineup:

 

1)Ellsbury

2)Pedroia

3)Youkilis

4)Gonzales

5)Werth

6)Ortiz

7)Salty/ 'Tek

8)Drew

9)Scutaro.

 

Or:

 

Sign Crawford, trade for Gonzales, keep 'Tek and field the following lineup:

 

1)Crawford

2)Pedroia

3)Gonzales

4)Youkilis

5)Ortiz

6)Salty/'Tek

7)Drew

8)Scutaro

9)Ellsbury

 

They would be competitive lineups either way IMO.

[Dipre]

I thought you would excoriate E1 for saying that he'd like to trade in J.D.

 

This is relevant to the current discussion how?

[Youker20]

What they should do is kick the tires on joe mauer.. maybe lester + salty for mauer + Liriano

[redsoxrules]

What they should do is kick the tires on joe mauer.. maybe lester + salty for mauer + Liriano

 

LOLOL

 

Mauer isn't going anywhere's especially not for the package you suggested

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

What they should do is kick the tires on joe mauer.. maybe lester + salty for mauer + Liriano

 

First the Hannah Montana lyrics and now crazy ideas that won't happen probably ever.

[a700hitter]

This is relevant to the current discussion how?

I was joking. Is this Dipre... the self-proclaimed defender of J.D. Drew? Read the thread. There are derogatory statements by E1 about Drew. Don't you defend J.D. any more?

[Rdsxmbnt]

They could also sign Werth, trade for Gonzales, keep 'Tek and field the following lineup:

 

1)Ellsbury

2)Pedroia

3)Youkilis

4)Gonzales

5)Werth

6)Ortiz

7)Salty/ 'Tek

8)Drew

9)Scutaro.

 

Or:

 

Sign Crawford, trade for Gonzales, keep 'Tek and field the following lineup:

 

1)Crawford

2)Pedroia

3)Gonzales

4)Youkilis

5)Ortiz

6)Salty/'Tek

7)Drew

8)Scutaro

9)Ellsbury

 

They would be competitive lineups either way IMO.

 

I like both but the only problem is getting Gonzalez without Ellsbury. Is say Kelly/Rizzo/Lowrie/Doubrout enough? Do the Red Sox make that deal or just wait a year?

[WhiskeyBreath]

I think they should just wait until he's a free agent. What other teams realistically have the ability to sign him and have a need for a 1B like Gonzalez?

[Flynnatic10]

According to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, the Red Sox "appear to be the favorites" to sign free agent outfielder Jayson Werth.

The Red Sox made contact with Scott Boras in early November to gauge Werth's asking price. It's probably a bit high at the moment, but the Sox are really hoping to upgrade offensively this offseason and Werth would provide a significant improvement in the club's overall run-scoring ability. He batted .296/.388/.532 with 27 home runs and 85 RBI in 554 at-bats this year.

 

Rotoworld

[RedSoxfanforlife305]

According to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, the Red Sox "appear to be the favorites" to sign free agent outfielder Jayson Werth.

The Red Sox made contact with Scott Boras in early November to gauge Werth's asking price. It's probably a bit high at the moment, but the Sox are really hoping to upgrade offensively this offseason and Werth would provide a significant improvement in the club's overall run-scoring ability. He batted .296/.388/.532 with 27 home runs and 85 RBI in 554 at-bats this year.

 

Rotoworld

 

Jayson Stark reports the Red Sox are the front runners on Werth. Maybe Crawford isn't their #1 priority afterall.

 

He beat you to it kiddo

[Flynnatic10]

my bad :thumbdown

[example1]

I was joking. Is this Dipre... the self-proclaimed defender of J.D. Drew? Read the thread. There are derogatory statements by E1 about Drew. Don't you defend J.D. any more?

 

Saying that JD Drew is worth his contract (I agree) is different than saying that there are better players than Drew (there are). Dipre wouldn't dispute that.

 

I've been a supporter of Drew throughout and simply see Werth is a better version. He will likely make more money than Drew because he's a better producer.

[a700hitter]

Saying that JD Drew is worth his contract (I agree) is different than saying that there are better players than Drew (there are). Dipre wouldn't dispute that.

 

I've been a supporter of Drew throughout and simply see Werth is a better version. He will likely make more money than Drew because he's a better producer.

I was just joking with Dipre because he has always been a staunch Drew supporter. When I saw your post mentioning Drew, I thought about Dipre. When I saw him post in the thread shortly after your post, I thought he had some JD telepathy.

[Dipre]

Dipre's dream off-season: (Note the "dream part, it's possible, but likely won't happen).

 

The Red Sox still have around 43-47 million to play with (they currently have 112 million allocated, let's add 12 for Paps, 2.75 for Okajima, and 4.2 for Ellsbury,bringing the total up to 130 million) and if i was them, this is what i'd do:

 

1)Sign Jayson Werth (4/68, vesting option for a 5th for 18.5 mill). (17 mill for '11)

 

2)Trade Casey Kelly (blocked to some extent), Anthony Rizzo (replacement for A-Gon), Kalish, Doubront and another, lower-tier piece for A-Gon and Heath Bell. I believe that on a one-year deal, Gonzales' value is much lower than it was before last year, that is a package that helps the Padres in many levels, and if i had to add another piece, i certainly would do it as well.

 

3)Gonzo:6.3 mill for '11. Bell: Final year of arb, likely 6 mill for '11.

 

4) Bring Varitek back: 1 year, 4.5 million.

 

5) Sign Pedro Feliciano: 2 year, 6 million. (3 million for '11).

 

6)Sign one more BP arm from the following group: Hisanori Takahashi, JJ Putz, Jon Rauch, Grant Balfour, Tyler Walker, Ron Mahay. (3 for '11 )

 

7)Bring back Bill Hall (3.5 mill).

 

Total: 45.5 million.

 

My 25-man roster, lineup, rotation and bullpen:

 

C- Salty

1B- Gonzales

2B-Pedroia

3B- Youkilis

SS- Lowrie/Scutaro

LF: Drew

CF:Ellsbury

RF:Werth

 

DH: David Ortiz.

 

Bench:

 

Varitek ©

Lowrie/Scutaro (2B,3B,SS)

Cameron (OF)

 

Rotation:

 

1)Lester

2)Bucholz

3)Beckett

4)Lackey

5)Dice-K

 

Bullpen:

LRP Atchison

MRP Okajima

MRP Feliciano

MRP Balfour

SU: Papelbon

SU: Bard

CL: Bell.

 

Lineup:

 

Against righties:

 

1) Ellsbury CF

2) Pedroia 2B

3) Youkilis 3B

4) Gonzales 1B

5) Werth RF

6) Ortiz DH

7) Drew LF

8) Salty C

9) Lowrie SS

 

Against Lefties:

 

1) Ellsbury LF (If Cameron is healthy)

2) Pedroia 2B

3) Youkilis 3B

4)Gonzales 1B

5) Werth RF

6) Ortiz/Drew DH

7)Cameron CF

8)Varitek C

9)Scutaro SS

 

Disclaimer: This is only a mental exercise on how i would do things if i were running the team, i am not a talent evaluator, nor a member of a team's Front Office, and i do not claim to be so either. I let the people who know what they're doing make the decisions.

[ORS]

For one, I don't see SD moving Gonzalez and Bell before the deadline. They finished 2nd in their division and are improving. Maybe they take a step forward, maybe they take a step back, but if I was forced to bet, I'd say they will see where they are come June before making a decision.

 

Then, that's a lot of talent to give up just to get those guys one year earlier. I agree, Kelly is kind of blocked, and Rizzo would be if they acquired him as a FA, but Kalish looks like a guy you can consider a contributor to the 2011 and future squads. I mean, if you get Gonzo a year early it's to extend him right, but then you lose Drew and Cameron, and you only have Ellsbury and Werth in the OF moving forward. With an expensive IF (Gonzo at big money, Youk and Pedroia hitting the back end of their deals), a very expensive starting rotation, Papelbon hitting free agency, you are going to need someone contributing at the league minimum. Take away Kalish and you are left back on the market and over budget.

 

Don't see it happening.

[example1]

Dipre's dream off-season: (Note the "dream part, it's possible, but likely won't happen).

 

The Red Sox still have around 43-47 million to play with (they currently have 112 million allocated, let's add 12 for Paps, 2.75 for Okajima, and 4.2 for Ellsbury,bringing the total up to 130 million) and if i was them, this is what i'd do:

 

1)Sign Jayson Werth (4/68, vesting option for a 5th for 18.5 mill). (17 mill for '11)

 

2)Trade Casey Kelly (blocked to some extent), Anthony Rizzo (replacement for A-Gon), Kalish, Doubront and another, lower-tier piece for A-Gon and Heath Bell. I believe that on a one-year deal, Gonzales' value is much lower than it was before last year, that is a package that helps the Padres in many levels, and if i had to add another piece, i certainly would do it as well.

 

3)Gonzo:6.3 mill for '11. Bell: Final year of arb, likely 6 mill for '11.

 

4) Bring Varitek back: 1 year, 4.5 million.

 

5) Sign Pedro Feliciano: 2 year, 6 million. (3 million for '11).

 

6)Sign one more BP arm from the following group: Hisanori Takahashi, JJ Putz, Jon Rauch, Grant Balfour, Tyler Walker, Ron Mahay. (3 for '11 )

 

7)Bring back Bill Hall (3.5 mill).

 

Total: 45.5 million.

 

My 25-man roster, lineup, rotation and bullpen:

 

C- Salty

1B- Gonzales

2B-Pedroia

3B- Youkilis

SS- Lowrie/Scutaro

LF: Drew

CF:Ellsbury

RF:Werth

 

DH: David Ortiz.

 

Bench:

 

Varitek ©

Lowrie/Scutaro (2B,3B,SS)

Cameron (OF)

 

Rotation:

 

1)Lester

2)Bucholz

3)Beckett

4)Lackey

5)Dice-K

 

Bullpen:

LRP Atchison

MRP Okajima

MRP Feliciano

MRP Balfour

SU: Papelbon

SU: Bard

CL: Bell.

 

Lineup:

 

Against righties:

 

1) Ellsbury CF

2) Pedroia 2B

3) Youkilis 3B

4) Gonzales 1B

5) Werth RF

6) Ortiz DH

7) Drew LF

8) Salty C

9) Lowrie SS

 

Against Lefties:

 

1) Ellsbury LF (If Cameron is healthy)

2) Pedroia 2B

3) Youkilis 3B

4)Gonzales 1B

5) Werth RF

6) Ortiz/Drew DH

7)Cameron CF

8)Varitek C

9)Scutaro SS

 

Disclaimer: This is only a mental exercise on how i would do things if i were running the team, i am not a talent evaluator, nor a member of a team's Front Office, and i do not claim to be so either. I let the people who know what they're doing make the decisions.

 

Good post. I think most of this is realistic, except the Gonzalez trade. I just don't see it. It's a huge risk to take on a guy who just had surgery and who will proably want to test the FA market... of course, that might be the time to buy low. Kelly, Rizzo, Kalish and Doubront (plus whoever else you are willing to throw in) is a huge amount of talent for a guy who seems destined for Boston one way or another.

 

To me, it makes a lot more sense to use those prospects on someone you can't get in 12 months (Upton/Hanley/Wright/Other?). I'm okay if they wait to deal their huge package of players until they can have a player they couldn't get otherwise.

 

By spring training, I anticipate that arguments on this board will be between those who didn't think Theo did enough and the "our team will rebound" crowd. I definitely see myself in the later group. The 2011 pitching staff should be a better reflection of the $$$ that is being spent on it, and obviously having Pedroia, Ellsbury and Youkilis, plus a healthy Jed Lowrie, will mean a lot.

 

I certainly hope they make a significant trade and will certainly adjust for the better even if they send away a big package of high-level prospects, but I think Theo is extremely conservative with his prospects and it has worked well for the most part. It just takes more patience, and in 2012 and beyond I think the team is better served with Kelly, Kalish, Doubront and Rizzo available to build with.

[SCM33]

What about Pat Burrell on short money to play 1B on the meantime? I know the favorite is Derek Lee, but I just dont see him signing here for a short deal regardless of his age and injury history.

[example1]

What about Pat Burrell on short money to play 1B on the meantime? I know the favorite is Derek Lee' date=' but I just dont see him signing here for a short deal regardless of his age and injury history.[/quote']

 

I don't like either of those options, to be honest. I have never really liked Burrell and though Lee seems like an okay buy-low candidate, I doubt he's sunk to the point of needing a 1 year deal to prove his worth. I don't want the Sox going much longer than that on too many players.

[SCM33]

I don't like either of those options' date=' to be honest. I have never really liked Burrell and though Lee seems like an okay buy-low candidate, I doubt he's sunk to the point of needing a 1 year deal to prove his worth. I don't want the Sox going much longer than that on too many players.[/quote']

 

I dont like the options either, but what do you see realistically if we cannot get A-Gon this offseason?

 

I think Youkilis needs to be moved to 3B regardless because of notion that one day A-Gon will be in Boston.

 

Do we use Lowrie at 1B? Sign Adam Laroche? Sign Dunn and move him to DH next year?

[example1]

One thing to keep in mind this offseason is that MLB has changed over the last 5 years. Strategies must evolve as well. Happy Thanksgiving!

 

--John Henry, Twitter

 

"There is no way around it, older players are being looked at differently," Johnny Damon said. "But what a lot of people forget is that guys like me and Jeter, we came out at the same time and we are special players. If things need to get done on a baseball field, we get it done."

 

--Johnny Damon, NY Post

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/yankees/not_in_the_ballpark_B9cTNeZ2727OT9iMooroXP?CMP=OTC-rss&FEEDNAME=&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

 

What do these two quotes have to do with each other? Well, as soon as I read Damon's quote I think I figured out how, exactly, the game has changed so much in the past 5 years for John Henry. There are probably a number of things that have changed, but Damon's comments and the Red Sox recent actions speak to staying away from longer, expensive contracts with injury prone or older players.

 

PEDs were great for improving performance, but they were also great for improving recovery from injury. Old guys who have significant injuries are really high risk if they can't "boost" their recovery and performance.

 

Interestingly, I don't think this would be supported by pursuing Jayson Werth over Carl Crawford, except that Werth's skill set (as a Paul Bunyon type) will probably hold on longer.

[SCM33]

Sounds like Damon is begging for a job.

 

Too many burned bridges Johnny Boy. Jeter will find his way back to NY because he was loyal to them all along. Who were you loyal to Johnny Boy? Sounding a little desperate these days. Maybe blocking that deal to Boston wasnt in your best interest after all.

[example1]

I dont like the options either, but what do you see realistically if we cannot get A-Gon this offseason?

 

I think Youkilis needs to be moved to 3B regardless because of notion that one day A-Gon will be in Boston.

 

Do we use Lowrie at 1B? Sign Adam Laroche? Sign Dunn and move him to DH next year?

 

Worst case scenario next year, IMO:

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Youkilis (1B )

Ortiz (DH)

Werth (LF)

Drew

Lowrie (3B )

Salty (C )

Scutaro (SS)

 

That's not a horrible lineup, as it stands. They would need to sign at least one backup infielder (maybe get Felipe Lopez back, maybe Bill Hall, others...) and a backup catcher.

[BSN07]

The thought of trading Drew has crossed my mind a few times this year. With a decent offensive and healthy 2010 and him being on a one year deal give him trade value. Trading Drew could open up this team for big changes(I'm stating now I'm fine with keeping him for the last year of his deal, this is just an interesting topic). They could pull a Yankees and sign both Werth and Crawford. And have an OF of Crawford, Ellsbury, Werth. Or if they really wanted to mix it up they could send Ellsbury + prospects to AZ for Upton and have an OF of Crawford, Upton, Werth.. Excuse me I need a moment to compose myself. .....And still Add Agon in 2012.

 

2011 lineup

 

Ellsbury/Upton

Pedroia

Crawford

Youk

Ortiz

Werth

Lee type

Salty/platoon

Lowrie

 

2012

Upton

Pedroia

Agon

Youk

Crawford

Werth

DH(low cost)

Salty/platoon(low cost)

Lowrie/Igelsias

 

 

Also to be cover my bases, you could slot in Pujols for Agon technically. He still isn't signed That would be a nice powerful RHH lineup to counter act CC, Lee and Price

 

The scenario is out there I know. But it is possible.