2011 Yankee rotation conundrum

[jacksonianmarch]

I was in a discussion with Yaz Sideburn when I figured this would be a hot topic of discussion between now and the start of next spring training. Consolidation is key.

 

In 2010, the Yankees will have 3 current starters under contract.

 

1. Sabathia

2. Hughes

3. Burnett

 

Not a bad way to anchor a rotation. But with Hughes going into his second full season as a starter and Burnett being either Cy Young or Cy Yuk, gaining more stability would be beneficial, especially when the sox and rays have a set rotation.

 

Now to look at those departing us.

 

Andy Pettitte has given us ace production at $11.75 million. But his age, family ties, and injury status has everyone concerned. Andy's groin went this yr and Andy's elbow has been "barking" (ie a ticking time bomb) since 2008.

 

Javier Vazquez started off the yr poorly, righted the ship, then saw his fastball lose all signs of life. He's now on his way out of the rotation in lieu of a hot shot rookie. He's likely to be denied arbitration and his $11.5 million salary is likely to be recouped for 2011 spending cash.

 

So, enter the 2011 FA pitcher's class. And for the Yankees, the only obvious improvement is Cliff Lee. He would tandem with Sabathia as arguably the best 1-2 punch of any rotation and would give the Yankees two left handed horses in a ballpark that favors lefties. If Lee goes elsewhere, the Yankees arent left with much. Rich Harden? Might as well resign Pettitte. Brandon Webb? Not bad as a flier, but cannot be counted on as a regular contributor. Ted Lilly? He and his 84mph fastball would die in YS. So, there are two scenarios....

 

1. With Cliff Lee in the fold...

 

1. Sabathia

2. Lee

3. Hughes

4. Burnett

5. ???

 

The #5 competition would likely involve either Pettitte returning (doubtful in this scenario), a flier like Webb, or a rookie. Bear in mind, the Yankees minor league system is deeper than most any other system in pitching talent. And unlike last yr, most of that talent is now in the upper levels. Take a look at this...

 

1. Nova- currently in MLB

2. Phelps- AAA

3. Noesi- AAA

4. Mitchell- AAA

5. Warren- AA

6. Banuelos- AA

7. Betances- AA

8. Brackman- AA

 

These are where guys are this season. Needless to say, the Yankees have the goods to fill one rotation spot if needed. And this Nova kid looks like he's getting an accelerated audition for next season

 

2. If Cliff Lee spurns us...

 

1. Sabathia

2. Hughes

3. Burnett

4. ???

5. ???

 

In this instance, I dont think you can give one of those spots to a rookie out of the gate. You need to make up for missing Lee by getting 2 guys who you can somewhat count on in the #4 and #5 spots. This would also require us to resign Pettitte into the #4 hole and for us to get someone with a track record to fill the #5 hole. Maybe, this is the spot you go after a guy who can give you 200IP of sub 5 ERA like Vazquez was supposed to. Or, maybe this is where you package some of that pitching talent and deal for a guy who can slot into the rotation and be useful

 

 

 

Regardless, the Yankees can very well flex their financial muscle this offseason and lock down the top 4 spots in the rotation. This would then let them flex their developmental muscle and bring up a kid who could very well become the next Phil Hughes. Regardless, it is going to be interesting, and with the lack of quality backup plans, Lee almost becomes a must.

[Yaz Sideburn]

i don't see where the money will come from to sign lee. after their arbitration cases and all the players who will get salary increases next year, the yankees will have $55 million freed up to get a closer, a shortstop, a dh two starting pitchers and various bench/middle relievers

 

rivera hasn't done anything to deserve a pay cut, you have to figure he's going to get another 3 year/45 million contract

jeter's going to want about $17 million a year, he's not going to take much more of a pay cut than that

if you sign lee for a sabathia-like contract, that's $23 million a year and you have only $5 million left to fill all the team's other needs

[Yaz Sideburn]

the yankees have kind of screwed themselves by giving out these bloated contracts. they paid mo $15 million a year and he's pitched great so they don't really have an excuse to cut his bloated salary. they can't pay jeter $21 million and then cut his salary in half to reflect his current level of production and expect things to be honky dory. and lee is a better pitcher than sabathia so they'd be hard pressed to justify paying him much less in talks with his free agent

[jacksonianmarch]

Mariano will see an extension

Jeter is gonna see a pay cut

The yanks, IMO, will fill DH internally.

Their arb cases will not see too big a raise. Hughes will be in the 4 mil range and Joba probably around 2 mil

Like I said before. Losing pettitte and Vazquez will free up the money

[Yaz Sideburn]

Mariano will see an extension

Jeter is gonna see a pay cut

The yanks, IMO, will fill DH internally.

Their arb cases will not see too big a raise. Hughes will be in the 4 mil range and Joba probably around 2 mil

Like I said before. Losing pettitte and Vazquez will free up the money

 

pettitte and vazquez will free up $24.6 million but the yankees also have $9 million more in salary to pay next year due to escelating contracts and if joba and hughes make those figures in arbitration that's an additional $5 million in salary. the reamaining $10.6 million left of the money the yankees free up from vazquez and pettitte is not enough to sign lee

[yrtb]

It would be nice if Pettitte didn't retire. But Dustin Moseley hasn't been too shabby

[Palodios]

They've got 70 million coming off the books. 30ish to Jeter/Rivera, 10 ish between arbitration and raises. If they stay around that same priceline, that's 30 million to revamp that bullpen, pick up atleast one starter, and dh and bench roles. I think they're better off looking for a 5th starter from within, and putting good money on Lee. Their lineup is beastly already, so I think its worth focusing their money there.

[Yaz Sideburn]

They've got 70 million coming off the books. 30ish to Jeter/Rivera' date=' 10 ish between arbitration and raises. If they stay around that same priceline, that's 30 million to revamp that bullpen, pick up atleast one starter, and dh and bench roles. I think they're better off looking for a 5th starter from within, and putting good money on Lee. Their lineup is beastly already, so I think its worth focusing their money there.[/quote']

 

between arbitration and raises, they'll have to pay more like $14 million. so in order to have $23 million to sign lee they'd need jeter to take a $6 million a year pay cut and find players making the league minimum to play dh, both of their backup infield spots, backup outfield and their 3 unfilled bullpen spots

[Divinity]

Yankees passed on Dan Haren because they didn't want to pay the remaining 31 million on his contract, instead saving the money specifically for Lee. I also read a article earlier of how Sabathia almost certainly guarantees it.

 

A story in today's New York Post quotes CC Sabathia after his 17th win yesterday, "I'm here," Sabathia said. "Hundred percent."

 

Sabathia is referring to the clause in his contract to opt-out after next season. CC was not sure he or his family would like the hustle of New York, and being Californians, wanted the option to go back to the west coast.

 

"I think you know I've built a house here, right?" CC said. "My kids go to school here. We live here year round. So I'm not going anywhere."

That is great news for the Yankees, who have relied on Sabathia more this year then they even did last season. A remarkable feat indeed, considering CC won 19 games in the regular season last year, three more in the post season and was the stopper when the rotation became erratic.Deja vu all over again in 2010, right?What CC's declaration also tells me is that Cliff Lee is even more likely to sign with the Yankees next season after becoming a free agent. After being traded THREE times in less than a year, Lee wants to play with what is comfortable to him.And CC is comfort food for Cliff Lee.They are really good friends since their days with Cleveland, and CC is perhaps the biggest cheerleader for players to come to New York. And with Lee and Yankee rotation stalwart A.J. Burnett both hailing from Arkansas and sharing the same agent, Lee is almost guaranteed to become part of the 2011 Yankee rotation.

[jacksonianmarch]

See YS, the Yanks aren't looking at the salary escalators, IMO. The lux tax is based off AAV, so that number doesn't change, even if the actual payout increases. So while $9 mil more is coming out of their pockets, their lux tax number remains the exact same.

 

In terms of Lee, that money has been earmarked for awhile. That caused the Yanks to pass on a cheap deal for Haren, a guy who would have helped this team for this yr and the subsequent 3 seasons. When you have the option to get a reasonable contract for one good prospect and a bunch of detritus, you do it unless that money is earmarked elsewhere.

 

In terms of Lee's value, I can see NY offering somewhere in the neighborhood of 5yrs 100mil with a vesting option for a 6th at $22 mil or thereabouts. In this economic climate, I don't think that gets beaten

[Yaz Sideburn]

See YS, the Yanks aren't looking at the salary escalators, IMO. The lux tax is based off AAV, so that number doesn't change, even if the actual payout increases. So while $9 mil more is coming out of their pockets, their lux tax number remains the exact same.

 

In terms of Lee, that money has been earmarked for awhile. That caused the Yanks to pass on a cheap deal for Haren, a guy who would have helped this team for this yr and the subsequent 3 seasons. When you have the option to get a reasonable contract for one good prospect and a bunch of detritus, you do it unless that money is earmarked elsewhere.

 

In terms of Lee's value, I can see NY offering somewhere in the neighborhood of 5yrs 100mil with a vesting option for a 6th at $22 mil or thereabouts. In this economic climate, I don't think that gets beaten

 

i guarantee that lee will make more than $20 million per year. it's possible that the yankees sign lee, but if they do they'll have pretty much no money left over to address their bench or their bullpen. i think it's going to take more than 5 year/100 million to sign lee, there are a lot of teams with money being freed up this offseason and 2/3rds of the teams in baseball could use a #1 starter

[Yaz Sideburn]

lee isn't going to be easy to sign. texas has over $30 million in salary coming off the books and they've said that lee is their #1 priority this offseason. the dodgers were interested in lee when he was on the trade block but didn't want to give up prospects to get him, they have more than $40 million in salary coming off the books. the angels and red sox also inquired and they both have over $30 million coming off the books

[Will617]

The Yankees have $69 million to work with next season. Assuming Rivera and Jeter cost $35 million a season roughly, that's $34 million. Add in some arbitration and that's maybe $25 million. Not a lot of money remaining to get Lee.

Of course, the Yankees could just increase their payroll. I doubt the Sox will tie up 3 large contracts to pitchers that will be about 35 when those contracts end (Beckett, Lackey, and Lee). The Angels are probably set after acquiring Haren for peanuts, but I suppose they could make a run at him. The Dodgers probably don't have much in the way of finances with that divorce. I think the likeliest scenario is that the Rangers and Yankees bid for Lee, unless Dice-K somehow gets traded.

Contract numbers here: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tpQLwiiQL4kzEzLhsUqVjLQ&output=html

[redsoxrules]

NWIH Lee is in Boston next year

 

the rotation is already set

 

Lester

Beckett

Lackey

Buchholz

Dice K

[Meh]

i don't see where the money will come from to sign lee. after their arbitration cases and all the players who will get salary increases next year, the yankees will have $55 million freed up to get a closer, a shortstop, a dh two starting pitchers and various bench/middle relievers

 

rivera hasn't done anything to deserve a pay cut, you have to figure he's going to get another 3 year/45 million contract

jeter's going to want about $17 million a year, he's not going to take much more of a pay cut than that

if you sign lee for a sabathia-like contract, that's $23 million a year and you have only $5 million left to fill all the team's other needs

 

The Yankees will have about 160 million on their payroll going into next season. I can see them non tendering Mitre, myself thats how I got the number. 3 for Joba, 1.4 for Logan, 4 for Hughes. Plus about 5-6 million for players just making min and 2 million left over just incase we see even higher raises. Mo for 15, Jeter for 18 = 193. We have 20 million left over to spend on Lee. I wouldn't be shocked to see us go even higher with the payroll next year since YES will be going national and that means we'll likely see our income double.

[jacksonianmarch]

I find it interesting that the premise of the vitriol in this thread is that the Yankees are gonna run out of money. Lee has been at the top of their wish list for awhile. Barring an unforseen development (Lee not wanting to play in NY or some other team offering $30 mil a yr), he's a Yankee next yr

[Yaz Sideburn]

I find it interesting that the premise of the vitriol in this thread is that the Yankees are gonna run out of money. Lee has been at the top of their wish list for awhile. Barring an unforseen development (Lee not wanting to play in NY or some other team offering $30 mil a yr)' date=' he's a Yankee next yr[/quote']

 

the premise is that salary would be tight for the yankees if they sign lee and while the yankees would really like to sign him, but they're not the only team that would and they're not the only team that can afford him. and like you said, who's to say he wants to play in new york?

 

just because new york wants someone doesn't mean they automatically get them

[ORS]

the premise of the thread is that salary would be tight for the yankees if they sign lee and while the yankees would really like to sign him, but they're not the only team that would and there are plenty of other teams that could afford lee. and like you said, who's to say he even wants to play in new york?

 

just because new york wants someone doesn't mean they automatically get them

When was the last time they lost out on a guy they wanted?

 

Part of the tangible doucheyness of Yankee fans is the sense of the entitlement, as displayed by Jacko's surety that they will get him. That expectation of always getting what is desired is based on the history of them, well, actually always getting the guys they target. Perception is reality.

[jacksonianmarch]

Exactly. I am not trying to be a douche here. It's been the reality of things over the past century or so

[Yaz Sideburn]

When was the last time they lost out on a guy they wanted?

 

Part of the tangible doucheyness of Yankee fans is the sense of the entitlement, as displayed by Jacko's surety that they will get him. That expectation of always getting what is desired is based on the history of them, well, actually always getting the guys they target. Perception is reality.

 

john lackey says hi

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees didnt actively pursue Lackey, although a lot of the fanbase wanted him

[Yaz Sideburn]

it was widely reported that they were interested in lackey and they fact that they traded for vazquez a week after the red sox signed him seems to support that

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/11/09/lackey.yankees/index.html

[Yaz Sideburn]

it's a fact that the yankees don't always get the guy they want. look at when andy pettitte left for houston or when cashman wanted to sign damon last year but hal steinbrenner told him he was tightening the budget and he could only spend $2 million on a left fielder

 

these aren't george's yankees anymore

[jacksonianmarch]

it was widely reported that they were interested in lackey and they fact that they traded for vazquez a week after the red sox signed him seems to support that

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/11/09/lackey.yankees/index.html

 

Looking and actively wanting are two different things

 

In terms of Damon, he wanted him for a price and found what he thought was a decent alternative in Johnson.

 

There are those guys the Yankees would like but are replaceable (see Lackey and Damon)

 

Then there are those guys the yankees want unabashedly and they are not replaceable. These include Tex, CC, RJ, ARod, etc.

[Yaz Sideburn]

Looking and actively wanting are two different things

 

In terms of Damon, he wanted him for a price and found what he thought was a decent alternative in Johnson.

 

There are those guys the Yankees would like but are replaceable (see Lackey and Damon)

 

Then there are those guys the yankees want unabashedly and they are not replaceable. These include Tex, CC, RJ, ARod, etc.

 

johnson wasn't damon's replacement, he was matsui's replacement. it's a pretty cut and dry case of cashman wanting someone and the new yankees ownership telling him they wanted to cut salary instead and cashman not getting the player he wanted

[Divinity]

who's to say he wants to play in new york?

 

who's to say he doesn't? He's close friends with CC from the years they were together in Cleveland, and I'm sure he knows being on the Yankees roster would give him the highest probability of winning the World Series. In terms of money he'll certainly get a fair contract.

[yankees228]

it's a fact that the yankees don't always get the guy they want. look at when andy pettitte left for houston or when cashman wanted to sign damon last year but hal steinbrenner told him he was tightening the budget and he could only spend $2 million on a left fielder

 

these aren't george's yankees anymore

 

Wow, kudos YS. Extremely well said. I wish you were here when I was debating this point the entire offseason lol.

[Divinity]

Yankees didn't need Damon after they aquired Granderson, along with having Gardener who is like a mini-Crawford. Nick Johnson was supposed to fill Damon's spot as the #2 before he went down for the season. even if they claimed him now he would only clog up the DH spot. Leaving no room for Berkman, Thames (who absolutey kills LH pitching), Kearns, and not giving Posada, Jeter, A Rod days off.

[jacksonianmarch]

johnson wasn't damon's replacement' date=' he was matsui's replacement. it's a pretty cut and dry case of cashman wanting someone and the new yankees ownership telling him they wanted to cut salary instead and cashman not getting the player he wanted[/quote']

 

Johnson was Damon's replacement in the lineup. I think the Yankees viewed Matsui as completely expendable, as evidenced by their total lack of pursuit. And they viewed Damon as a DH. Getting Johnson and putting him in the #2 hole was to replace Damon. Obviously, Johnson hasnt worked out

[Yaz Sideburn]

Yankees didn't need Damon after they aquired Granderson' date=' along with having Gardener who is like a mini-Crawford. Nick Johnson was supposed to fill Damon's spot as the #2 before he went down for the season. even if they claimed him now he would only clog up the DH spot. Leaving no room for Berkman, Thames (who absolutey kills LH pitching), Kearns, and not giving Posada, Jeter, A Rod days off.[/quote']

 

i think you misremembered what actually happened. curtis granderson plays centerfield, not left field. cashman was forced to go out and sign randy winn (remember him?) to play left field for them instead of damon after hal said he only had $2 million to spend on a left fielder