Should Kalish make the team next year?

[Dojji]

And then I sabotage the whole idea by calling for that 1B to be Mike Napoli, a low-contact high strikeout slugger, but oh well, no one's perfect.

 

Ellsbury, CF

Crawford, LF

Pedroia, 2B

Youkilis, 3B

Ortiz/Dunn, DH

Martinez, C

Napoli, 1B

Drew, RF

Scutaro/Lowrie, SS

 

Kalish

Hall (re-signed, I like him and we need a RHH)

Lowrie

Salty/Wagner (depending on who has a better Spring)

 

That's a lineup that can win. There's some "ifs" to it of course, but it can win.

[Palodios]

Ellsbury is simply the most moveable piece for the Sox. No other replaceable piece on this team will get anywhere near his value-- except Bard, but whether he's replaceable is debatable. Throw in possible issues with the team, and he's probably gone.

 

Mike Cameron is going to be much more valuable as 2010 as this team's 4th outfielder than on another team. He's had a rough season, but you can't blame it on regression-- its pretty clear to me that the injury has been the only real issue. It hurt his power a bit, and it makes it harder for him to get to balls, but otherwise he is pretty close to career averages. Cameron hasn't done anything to be in Lugo territory yet. Remember, he has averaged 20+ home runs for his whole career, and that includes 2006-2009.

[Dojji]

Ellsbury is simply the most moveable piece for the Sox.

 

No he isn't. He's about to start costing money and only has 3 years of control. Kalish himself is more movable for higher value than Jacoby atm.

[Palodios]

I was under the impression that Kalish has reached untouchable status within this organization. Besides him, who has more value? Its not like 3 years isn't a long time for a proven quality major league player. Plus his arbitration cost will be down because of this season.

[Dojji]

I was under the impression that Kalish has reached untouchable status within this organization. Besides him' date=' who has more value? Its not like 3 years isn't a long time for a proven quality major league player. Plus his arbitration cost will be down because of this season.[/quote']

 

I'm not saying Ellsbury isn't valuable -- Example would murder me if I tried that. What I'm saying is that he definitely isn't the most fungible guy on the roster, especially in terms of what his departure would take away from the team vs. what the return would bring back. People always underestimate speed when it doesn't come with a high OPS.

 

Our most fungible player right now IMHO, the guy we can move quickly at lowest risk for highest return, is quite likely Felix Doubront.

[Palodios]

Oh no, I never meant you didn't find Ellsbury valuable. What I've been saying is that while he's valuable, Crawford does everything he does and more, thus he's not only a proven mlb ready talent, he's also replaceable, something you can't say about any of the other guys on the roster.

[Dojji]

I can't agree with that because I don't see Ellsbury as a left fielder or Crawford as a CF

[Palodios]

That's an odd thing to say. Play Crawford in left, or in center, whatever works.

[jacksonianmarch]

Crawford is an avg CFer but a ridiculous LFer

[Yaz Sideburn]

jed lowrie might not be so bad as a 3b. he reminds me of a young bill mueller. maybe he'll win a batting title and lead us to a historic championship

[Dojji]

If his arm is good enough he's got a chance to be a solid 3B

[jacksonianmarch]

If his arm is good enough he's got a chance to be a solid 3B

 

He's got a chance to be average at 3b. His lack of power is going to necessitate either GG defense or a very high average-OBP combo. Nowadays, in order to be above average or better at 3b, you need to have good power, which he doesnt have

[Yaz Sideburn]

lowrie's got a great eye and gap power. if he could transition to 3b defensively, he could be pretty good. i doubt the red sox take that gamble though

[jacksonianmarch]

lowrie's got a great eye and gap power. if he could transition to 3b defensively' date=' he could be pretty good. i doubt the red sox take that gamble though[/quote']

 

It is a gamble, mostly because he'd be manning a power position and in order to get the most value out of the position, Lowrie would have to set new career standards. OR the sox would have to upgrade elsewhere. Think about it, you are removing MVP caliber performance out of Beltre

[Yaz Sideburn]

It is a gamble' date=' mostly because he'd be manning a power position and in order to get the most value out of the position, Lowrie would have to set new career standards. OR the sox would have to upgrade elsewhere. Think about it, you are removing MVP caliber performance out of Beltre[/quote']

 

i don't think the sox will struggle to score runs with league average offense at 3rd. they've had multiple members of their lineup injured for pretty much every game this year and they lead the majors in ops

[Yaz Sideburn]

not to mention, 3b isn't the power position that it used to be. the average 3b the last couple years has had a slg around .430

[jacksonianmarch]

not to mention' date=' 3b isn't the power position that it used to be. the average 3b the last couple years has had a slg around .430[/quote']

 

The MLB average is a .752OPS. But when you are talking about losing a guy who has a mid .900s OPS, then a .750OPS doesnt cut it.

[Yaz Sideburn]

The MLB average is a .752OPS. But when you are talking about losing a guy who has a mid .900s OPS' date=' then a .750OPS doesnt cut it.[/quote']

 

barring another freakish injury year, we'd be fine even if lowrie hit that poorly

[jacksonianmarch]

barring another freakish injury year' date=' we'd be fine even if lowrie hit that poorly[/quote']

 

Well, it all depends on what happens with VMart and Papi as well.

[Yaz Sideburn]

Well' date=' it all depends on what happens with VMart and Papi as well.[/quote']

 

ok, so barring we don't lose beltre, v-mart and papi and do nothing to replace them...

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, let's say the sox let them all walk. Just a theory to throw out there. You're looking at replacing a catcher, a 3b/1b and a DH. With all 3 of them being key contributors to your offense. You'd need to get .900OPS AVERAGE out of the 3 guys you replace them with to break even. Putting Lowrie at 3b essentially makes that impossible. AND, you are talking about replacing a position in C that really doesnt have a lot of offense out there.

[jacksonianmarch]

The only way I could see the sox having Lowrie at 3b and still breaking even or improving is if they improve at a position that they already have an under contract player. Like dealing for Fielder to DH/1B, signing Werth for LF and promoting Salty to C and then giving the 3b job to Lowrie

[Yaz Sideburn]

The only way I could see the sox having Lowrie at 3b and still breaking even or improving is if they improve at a position that they already have an under contract player. Like dealing for Fielder to DH/1B' date=' signing Werth for LF and promoting Salty to C and then giving the 3b job to Lowrie[/quote']

 

or if they're healthy...

 

ellsbury over mcdonald

cameron over hermida

pedroia over hall

[jacksonianmarch]

or if they're healthy...

 

ellsbury over mcdonald

cameron over hermida

pedroia over hall

 

The sox LF position has a .718OPS this yr, not too far from the .754 career line of Jacoby. The SBs would definitely be the difference maker there

 

The sox CF position is where the money would be made. Sox CFers are .694OPS, while Cameron's career is right around .800. Bill Hall for 6 weeks has hurt, but he is really having a good yr. He has a .784OPS.

 

Regardless, taking a snakebit team, then downgrading them and relying on health is not a prudent idea.

[Yaz Sideburn]

The sox LF position has a .718OPS this yr, not too far from the .754 career line of Jacoby. The SBs would definitely be the difference maker there

 

The sox CF position is where the money would be made. Sox CFers are .694OPS, while Cameron's career is right around .800. Bill Hall for 6 weeks has hurt, but he is really having a good yr. He has a .784OPS.

 

Regardless, taking a snakebit team, then downgrading them and relying on health is not a prudent idea.

 

like i said, i'm sure the red sox won't just let beltre, v-mart and ortiz walk without doing anything to replace their production. but they can afford to downgrade one or two of those positions because they're going to get a boost from being healthier next year and they already lead the majors in ops

[jacksonianmarch]

And them leading the league in OPS has them out of the playoffs at the moment. If the offense is downgraded, then they need to tighten up somewhere else

[Yaz Sideburn]

And them leading the league in OPS has them out of the playoffs at the moment. If the offense is downgraded' date=' then they need to tighten up somewhere else[/quote']

 

their rotation will also be much improved with good health. if they pick up some bullpen help and replace most of the offensive production they're getting this year form catcher, dh and third base they'll be good to go. if they were healthy this year, i think they would have been a 98 win team

[Yaz Sideburn]

oops, posted this in the wrong forum

[Dojji]

The only way Lowrie's our starting 3B is if Theo commits to a full rebuild. Not saying he can't do it, but I am saying that we have options that make that a silly one by comparison, especially if we keep at least Ortiz and V-Mart, which is quite doable. Or we could even lose Ortiz and sign Dunn to replace him.

 

All we have to do to make the Lowrie option a joke is pick up a power-hitting 1B and move Youkilis back to his natural position.

[Yaz Sideburn]

The only way Lowrie's our starting 3B is if Theo commits to a full rebuild. Not saying he can't do it' date=' but I am saying that we have options that make that a silly one by comparison, especially if we keep at least Ortiz and V-Mart, which is quite doable.[/quote']

 

yeah. like i said before i doubt theo uses lowrie as the starting 3b