Should Kalish make the team next year?

[redsoxrules]

Is it ideal? Hardly. But even with Kalish's reported reverse splits, putting 6 leftes in the lineup limits your options, and batting Pedroia and Youkilis in that order isn't smart under those circumstances.

 

Since I think Youks is the guy who needs to be hitting third next year for purely practical reasons, I'd rather load our best speed at the top of the order to set the table for him than treat *anyone* as if their place in the lineup is sacrosanct. Pedroia will be an asset no matter where he hits, there's no reason he has to bat second if it might make the team stronger if someone else did.

 

If you bat Pedroia 7th , you limit his AB troughout the season

[Dojji]

Having a strong, loaded lineup means that strong players who might do a great job in bigger roles if called upon will be playing near the bottom.

 

Classic example is Scutaro this year. Brought in to be the #9 hitter but he's done a great job leading off. if our lineup had functioned like it should he'd never have been in position to prove that. but that doesn't magically mean he's sucked.

 

point is I'm not that worried if a few players play below their ideal role as long as everyone is producing in the role they play.

 

I'm not being some kind of evil Pedroia skeptic. I just like speed at the top of the lineup and Kalish has more of it. If he struggles, and he might, Pedroia makes one heck of a safety net -- or vice versa, although that seems less likely.

[ORS]

Having a strong' date=' loaded lineup means that strong players who might do a great job in bigger roles if called upon will be playing near the bottom.[/quote']

All well and good, but the problem with your point isn't about what happens if they have a strong lineup, it's the assumption that they will have one. Kalish is an unknown going into next year.....you caution about this to start the thread, remember? If you put him in that spot over Pedroia, you are taking a big leap of faith, against your own caveat, I might add, and expecting everyone else to jump along with you. Not happening.

 

Classic example is Scutaro this year. Brought in to be the #9 hitter but he's done a great job leading off.

If Scutaro were left at #9 and MacDonald went to leadoff when he came up would be the corresponding example to what you are proposing now.

[Dojji]

No it isn't, unless you'd like to claim that McDonald is no less talented than Kalish. It would entertain me to see you defend that particular claim.

 

Might want to have thought that analogy through just a bit more.

[ORS]

No it isn't, unless you'd like to claim that McDonald is no less talented than Kalish. It would entertain me to see you defend that particular claim.

 

Might want to have thought that analogy through just a bit more.

Wrong. MacDonald in comparison to Scutaro vs. Kalish in comparison to Pedroia. Try and keep up.

[soxfan74]

Kalish should be Starting next season. He is beyond ready. But we are so stupid he probably will start the season in Pawtucket. Hell Braniac pulled him from tonights game for Hall to bat.

[Will617]

Wasn't a terrible decision by Francona. Just as Franklin Gutierrez is Death to Flying Things, Bill Hall is Death to Left Handed Things Standing on the Pitcher's Mound.

This lineup will never happen, but why not bat Pedroia second, A-Gon third and Youk 4th?

1. Crawford CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Gonzalez 1B

4. Youkilis 3B

5. Ortiz DH

6. Martinez C

7. Drew RF

8. Kalish LF

9. Scutaro SS

[Dojji]

if I have Youks and Gonzo 3-4, I'd rather bat Youks third.

 

Pure hitter ahead of the high-performance slugger. I think you get a couple more runs that way.

[Will617]

Adrian Gonzalez has a career average of .283, OBP of .366, playing in Petco (where I'd assume he gets robbed of a few HRs that would add to his average). Also, Youkilis slugs .497 while AGon slugs .507 - perhaps a more significant gap if AGon moves to Fenway, but not a significant one (also, Youkilis' slugging has been higher over the past 3 years than AGons').

*By last 3 years, I meant last two and this season.

[Dojji]

Not taking anything away from Gonzo's talent, but he's a patience/power hitter with decent offense tools otherwise while Youkilis is a more balanced package.

 

Letting Youks get on base or rap a double or hit a base hit BEFORE AGonz hits his homer makes more sense to me than doing it the other way around.

[Dojji]

Of course that really doesn't actually address the absurdity of thinking that we can have Kalish and Adrian Gonzalez at the same time. All roads to Gonzo run through Kalish IMHO, he's the piece we have who is the best candidate to headline any trade for a headline slugger.

[Will617]

I agree this won't happen, but it's kinda fun, almost like playing fantasy baseball.

Youkilis' ISO has been .257, .242, .257 in 08, 09, and this year; Gonzalez has had .231, .274, .217. Gonzalez is patient enough, and Youkilis hits for enough power, that I would rather get the platoon splits right and not mess up the lineup.

[Dojji]

A lot of Youk's power is tied up in doubles -- way more of his overall power than Gonzo. So let the doubles guy double home the speed guys and then put long bomber guy behind him to hit the 2 run homer.

[soxfan74]

Kalish is a star in the making. Letting this kid get away in another absurd trade would be ridiculous. We should be just buying time until Rizzo is ready at first. Personally tired of trading guys away like Hanley Ramirez, And David Murphy. Obviously take the World series win with the Hanley trade. Just saying he would be nice to have in the line-up. Lets not let Kalish get away.

[TedWilliams101]

I just took a look at AGon's line with RIPS this year, HOLY s***!

108 PA w/ RISP: .408 BA, .556 OBP, .684 SLG, 1.24 OPS.

 

Ridiculous. I want this guy!

[Dojji]

He might not be for trade, if the Padres think they can go on one last run with him. It's a low risk proposition for them because if it doesn't pan out they can trade him at the deadline and if it does, they might have the revenue to ink him.

[Dojji]

The thing about Kalish and trades is I'm reluctant to move him because there's two outfield positions coming up when Drew and Cameron walk at the end of next season, and of course left field is wide open, so Kalish is a guy who can fill any one of multiple needs. Filling one hole by creating another one isn't great asset management, and you can't always sign your blues away.

[Will617]

A lot of Youk's power is tied up in doubles -- way more of his overall power than Gonzo. So let the doubles guy double home the speed guys and then put long bomber guy behind him to hit the 2 run homer.

 

I'm just saying, AGon will be hitting a homer every 4 games if he hits 40 and plays 160. If AGon hits a single, and Youkilis hits a double, chances are AGon will still score. Also, Youkilis has 30 HR power; it's not like he doesn't have good power. You would have to severely convolute the lineup with situations that really aren't ideal to work out the platoon splits (and both AGon and Ortiz are substantially worse against LHP, unless you slot VMart 5th, move Ortiz to sixth, find a righty to bat 7th...etc).

And yeah, AGon probably won't be moved in the offseason unless the Sox give the Padres a roster of our farm system and tell Jed Hoyer to pick four.

[Dojji]

Right now, gun to my head, tell you how we solve the 1B/DH situation next year, my answer probably sounds something like "Dunn-Lowell-Ortiz quasi-platoon." Youik over at third since it's going to be way easier to find a solid short term 1B than a similar 3B and patch the first base situation together with multiple roster veterans.

[Will617]

BUT DUNN HURTS THE TEAM BY WALKING INSTEAD OF HITTING MORE HOME RUNS. HE'S CLOGGING THE BASES!

I think the Sox would take a short term solution at 1B and wait for Lars/Rizzo or Pujols.

[Dojji]

I know you're being sarcastic, but Dunn sure has his flaws. Defense for one.

 

I would take a serious look at Derrek Lee as a stopgap 1B. It's a gamble, he's having a truly lamentable year, but there's no denying his talent and you could get him for reasonable money right now. He seems like a guy who could really benefit from playing in Fenway. And it isn't that hard to figure out how to piece the roster together if he can't pull through, so go for it.

 

I would also be for exploring the idea of re-signing Mike Lowell for short money to play Kevin Millar for one year. There's no denying that he can hit, and his skills would seem at first blush to make transition to 1B relatively simple for him. For the right price, Mike can still help us. This is an option you explore if FA utterly fails you, but it would be a better option than most of what I see out there that doesn't involve a blockbuster trade and several valuable, desperately-needed young players going somewhere else.

[Will617]

I've always liked Lee and Lowell, but Lowell can't play every day at 1st. If V-Mart were resigned, he might have to spend significant time there, and then we'd need a catcher more offensively adept than Kevin Cash. It might actually work out better for the long-term career of V-Mart.

Dunn's defense has actually been average this season. I think that given how much he bounced around in previous years from the outfield to first and back, he never got a chance to work on his defense (since the two positions aren't similar aside from the fact that you don't have to be defensively adept to play either). He had a full spring training to work on his defense, and he has apparently played average defense according to the stats. He'd be a great signing, but I'm not so sure he would fit with the (my) strategy of waiting for Lars/Rizzo/Pujols.

[example1]

The only way I see the Yankees in on Crawford is if they deal Gardner or Granderson. Swisher has been our second best player this yr

 

If you get Adrian Gonzalez' date=' then you're gonna be signing him to a $20 mil per yr deal, which makes getting Crawford much less realistic[/quote']

 

If you take the Yankees "outbid at all costs" mentality out of the equation for a minute, how much does Crawford get? He's been a very valuable player the past two seasons and can pretty reliably be penciled in for 4.5-5.5 WAR.

 

Currently, he is 2nd in WAR among OFs (behind Hamilton) and he was 4th among all OFs in 2009.

 

I think that with the Yankees out of it and in this climate he would be an $18m/yr player.

 

By comparison, Adrian Gonzalez is also a roughly 5 WAR player whose value is much more offensive. His tools will probably age better, so I agree that $20m would probably be about right.

 

$38 million for two players? Well, they will be dropping $33.5m by releasing Lowell, Ortiz and Beltre. They don't have to pay $8.4m to Bill Hall or $5m to 'Tek.

 

Should we pretend that the Sox get two of the best players from other playoff teams for a second? Sure, why not?

 

Can they fill all of the other positions internally to mitigate the cost of signing those guys? They could retain Victor Martinez for less than the cost of Hall and Tek. With so many internal options (now including Salty) I can see them paying V-Mart and filling the C position internally the rest of the time. I could also see them letting Ortiz and Beltre go. Losing Bill Hall doesn't hurt if Lowrie is healthy. If they were to get Gonzalez he would replace some of the offense and a lot of the defense of Beltre-Ortiz; he would also be youger, more consistent and more dependable. Crawford would obviously be a formidable force in LF with Cameron or Kalish in CF and Drew in RF.

 

I think part of the loss of interest in the Red Sox is their lack of recently acquired star-power. Lackey is on the hill every 5th night and is tolerable because he's pretty lowkey. Getting a highly touted piece from another team creates a buzz that is difficult to equal through internal player development. They may need to purge the team of bad contracts and old/inconsistent players, spend some big money on prime players in FA and use your player development system to fill out the rest of the team. If Kalish or Iglesias become better than average MLB players in 2 years then the team would be really dangerous.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hall is not being paid by the Red Sox, not sure why people are including him in their salary loss. Milwaukee is paying his entire salary minus $400K

[BSN07]

Right now' date=' gun to my head, tell you how we solve the 1B/DH situation next year, my answer probably sounds something like "Dunn-Lowell-Ortiz quasi-platoon." Youik over at third since it's going to be way easier to find a solid short term 1B than a similar 3B and patch the first base situation together with multiple roster veterans.[/quote']

 

I know you have a gun to your head and all, but the fact you think Mike Lowell will be part of the 2011 Red Sox is madness.

[Dojji]

Lowell still has utility. He can still hit a little and doesn't suck defensively when he can play. He's way overpaid atm, but if you re-up him for what he's worth, somewhere in the 4-6M range, he could be a decent to actually quite strong bench player, with some time at DH you could probably nurse him through 350-400 decent at bats.

[jacksonianmarch]

He doesnt have utility Dojji. He's now a minus 3b and a liability in the field due to lack of range and injury potential. He's a 1b/DH

[Dojji]

Which happens to be exactly what we need.

[ORS]

Yeah, and a 1984 Ford Escort is a car. But, I'm not buying one if I have more than $1,000 in my budget when I need one.

[Palodios]

Lowell is not going to be back next season. I would bet my savings on that. Its been such an emotional roller coaster for him that there really isn't any reason for him to.