The Bullpen Thread

[Yaz Sideburn]

a reliever who pitches 70 innings in a year does not have as much impact as a good position player who plays in more like 1,000 innings a year. not even mariano rivera has had as much of a win value as jd drew

[jacksonianmarch]

I dunno man. While a position player has more pull over every game, the closer has the unique ability to close out a win or lose a game that you should have won.

[Yaz Sideburn]

it's a proven fact that position players have more influence over a game than relief pitchers. there's a reason that the best relief pitchers in baseball aren't paid anywhere near what the best position players are

[italstallianion]

But lets say the sox dont make the playoffs based on 1 game. Let's just put that out there. Would Wagner have been worth the playoff appearance?

 

 

 

 

If the Red Sox don't make the playoffs by one game, we have plenty more things to complain about than not having Wagner. The injuries being a good start.

[Spudboy]

it's unlikely that they had an extra $7 million to spend and they didn't spend it

 

:blink:

 

What! The Sox don't have another $7. Mil to spend?

 

They paid for Renteria, Manny, Lugo, to play for another team.

 

Ad those salaries up.

[Dipre]

*Add.

 

And it's not about adding the salaries per se, but a luxury tax issue.

 

Besides, we're all talking hypotheticals.

 

Who's to say Wagner would have wanted to stay and set up for Papelbon when he could have gone elsewhere and closed? It's clear he wanted to reach 400 saves, and it was going to be very difficult to reach that mark setting up.

[italstallianion]

*Add.

 

And it's not about adding the salaries per se, but a luxury tax issue.

 

Besides, we're all talking hypotheticals.

 

Who's to say Wagner would have wanted to stay and set up for Papelbon when he could have gone elsewhere and closed? It's clear he wanted to reach 400 saves, and it was going to be very difficult to reach that mark setting up.

 

 

 

And, going a step further, Wagner is/was 38, so for the long term, the 2 draft picks is much more lucrative, especially considering the Red Sox draft history. I'd rather have Vitek and Ranaudo (assuming we sign him) over a pissed off setup guy who'd probably retire at the end of the year.

[Spudboy]

What about Saito?

 

I hope I spelled that correctly.

[italstallianion]

What about Saito?

 

I hope I spelled that correctly.

 

 

 

That's a bit different, because we couldn't offer him arbitration and as such, we didn't get any draft picks for Saito. Plus, Saito was more content with being a setup man.

[Yaz Sideburn]

yeah, even if we did happen to have an extra $7 million lying around that we didn't spend and were willing to pay an additional $1.5 million in luxury tax by signing wagner, it's unlikely that he would have wanted to sign with the red sox. he went to the braves because he's at 386 careers saves and he wants to reach 400 before he retires after this year. saito would have made more sense as others have pointed out

[SoxSport]

I doubt Wagner would hold up in the Red Sox bullpen. Tito uses 2-3 relievers even in one-sided wins. That takes its toll over the year. Except for Bard, everybody else out there is underachieving this year. From overuse?

 

The trouble with this kind of thinking is you are fighting a paradigm. Most every manager does it--more or less--with the same result.

 

How baseball got to this I don't know. I guess they decided starters couldn't pitch 9 innings...then 8 innings...then 7 innings....

 

A HOF Orioles pitcher once told me he would have thrown Weaver off the mound if he tried to take him out on pitch counts.

[example1]

But lets say the sox dont make the playoffs based on 1 game. Let's just put that out there. Would Wagner have been worth the playoff appearance?

 

But lets say Vitek is an all-star and Ranaudo becomes a trade piece for Hanley Ramirez. Let's just put that out there. Would Wagner have been worth the all-star and a Hanley Ramirez trade? Just putting it out there.

 

"Of course" I would put my money on the highly developed premium prospects over the aged, formerly injured relievers who would have been either a set-up man or a #3 in the bullpen. Clearly that's what Theo chose to do to. Of course.

 

If either of the prospects becomes an MLB regular or better they will be worth more over the length of their contract than Wagner in one year, and it isn't even close. You know this. Wagner isn't Mariano Rivera. He's an experienced lefty closer near the end of his career; he's good, not great.

[lasitter]

Who's to say Wagner would have wanted to stay and set up for Papelbon when he could have gone elsewhere and closed? It's clear he wanted to reach 400 saves' date=' and it was going to be very difficult to reach that mark setting up.[/quote']My suggestion was that he be allowed to stay and pick up some of the "saving" even if Papelbon wasn't that happy about it.

[jacksonianmarch]

But lets say Vitek is an all-star and Ranaudo becomes a trade piece for Hanley Ramirez. Let's just put that out there. Would Wagner have been worth the all-star and a Hanley Ramirez trade? Just putting it out there.

 

"Of course" I would put my money on the highly developed premium prospects over the aged, formerly injured relievers who would have been either a set-up man or a #3 in the bullpen. Clearly that's what Theo chose to do to. Of course.

 

If either of the prospects becomes an MLB regular or better they will be worth more over the length of their contract than Wagner in one year, and it isn't even close. You know this. Wagner isn't Mariano Rivera. He's an experienced lefty closer near the end of his career; he's good, not great.

 

It's kinda early to call that right now. One is just starting his career and the other is gonna be a tough sign. I put a feasible scenario out there with a proven borderline HOF caliber pitcher out there. Now you're making s*** up

[Dipre]

It's kinda early to call that right now. One is just starting his career and the other is gonna be a tough sign. I put a feasible scenario out there with a proven borderline HOF caliber pitcher out there. Now you're making s*** up

 

Which feasible scenario? The one where the pitcher who specifically said he wasn't going to stay and set up for Papelbon because he wanted to close full time but instead went to close full time on a contender for seven million stays on the Red Sox setting up for Papelbon (which is what he stated he didn't want to do) for seven million is what you call a feasible scenario? Wagner wasn't even going to come to the Red Sox if he was offered arb when those negotiations began, and it took a lot of bargaining to get him to even accept that. He wasn't going to be a set up man for the Red Sox. And that's the reality of it.

 

If the Red Sox miss the playoffs by one game, trying to assign the blame to the lack of one reliever, now that is making s*** up

 

What about all the injuries? What about Ortiz' early-season slump? What about the early ineffectiveness of the rotation? What about the early defensive lapses?

 

All of those cost at least a game , but they don't matter because it doesn't suit your premise.

 

@lasitter:

 

Why was Wagner going to accept picking up "some" saving when he could go elsewhere for the same amount of money and close full time?

 

It didn't make sense for him, and that's the main reason why he's a Brave now.

[example1]

It's kinda early to call that right now. One is just starting his career and the other is gonna be a tough sign. I put a feasible scenario out there with a proven borderline HOF caliber pitcher out there. Now you're making s*** up

 

Dude, I was being facetious in the face of your scenario, in which the Sox miss out on the playoffs by one game. I think the chances of Vitek being an MLB contributer to the tune of more than ONE win are pretty good.

 

Let's back my scenario up.. what if Vitek is "merely" an everyday Red Sox player (2.5-3 WAR for 5-6 years) and Ranaudo doesn't sign or gets injured. I contend that the trade pieces are STILL more valuable than Wagner.

 

I know it may pain you to admit it, but the FO did this for a reason and they often do well with these types of calculations. You know this. Wagner didn't want to be a setup man and they got two very good draft picks for him. It was a no brainer, and with the Sox sitting 1/2 game behind the best record in baseball I'd say they made the right choice.

[Yaz Sideburn]

the only way signing wagner is a feasible scenario would be if we went back in time, brain washed wagner into thinking he really didn't want to make the 400 saves mark as a closer but instead set up for the red sox in the last year of his career and then spend the $7 million we would have spent on someone like beltre or scutaro on wagner. and if that happened and we missed the playoffs by 1 game, people would be complaining that we didn't sign beltre or scutaro

[example1]

the only way signing wagner is a feasible scenario would be if we went back in time' date=' brain washed wagner into thinking he really didn't want to make the 400 saves mark as a closer but instead set up for the red sox in the last year of his career and then spend the $7 million we would have spent on someone like beltre or scutaro on wagner. and if that happened and we missed the playoffs by 1 game, people would be complaining that we didn't sign beltre or scutaro[/quote']

 

I don't think there's any way they would have resigned Wagner, even with all the above caveats. As soon as he was acquired most of us thought he would be allowed to leave for draft picks, IF he turned out to be a productive and healthy reliever (which he did.. that was in question when they got him).

 

This FO has shown over and over that they prefer two first round draft picks to most FA possibilities. Wagner gets most of his money because of his veteran status, not because of his actual production on the field. The Sox tend to only pay those veteran FA prices on rare occasions (Lackey, Drew come to mind) but much more often seem to prefer getting the chance to draft a Pedroia, Bard, Lester, Buchholz, etc.,

[Yaz Sideburn]

i agree with you example. and let's remember that he is a 38 year old closer and he has already recieved a cortisone shot for discomfort in his ankle, who's to say he holds up over a full season? he's pretty much the least appealing bullpen arm we could have went after last year considering the draft picks he netted us, his age and the amount it would have taken to acquire him IF he was willing to be a set up man at all which he probably wasn't

[Yaz Sideburn]

the next few weeks will be crucial for the bullpen. manny delcarmen and michael bowden are both in the bullpen now, replacing some really poor middle relievers. delcarmen has been great this year, with the exception of his 2 starts prior to his trip to the dl (2.23 era prior) and bowden allowed one hit, no walks and no runs in 6 innings as a reliever at pawtucket

[jacksonianmarch]

Bowden looked good today. You will definitely get to see what he can do over the next 2 weeks or so

[example1]

I think Bowden should translate into a nice long option out of the bullpen over the next few years. Over the course of a season in that role he could stay near the top of his game and really hone his repetoir.

 

He's probably not going to make it as a starter on the Sox, but there's no shame in entering the 'bigs as a reliever.

[Spudboy]

I think Bowden should translate into a nice long option out of the bullpen over the next few years. Over the course of a season in that role he could stay near the top of his game and really hone his repetoir.

 

He's probably not going to make it as a starter on the Sox, but there's no shame in entering the 'bigs as a reliever.

 

More than likely (as long as he does not embarrass himself) he's gone.

 

Too bad.

[Palodios]

I don't see them trading him, simply because I don't think anyone really knows what he's worth. He went from being a top prospect to a top pitcher in 2008/2009, who then lost his confidence when he failed in the majors, then had a rough start to 2010, but eventually came back to have a stretch of really great starts in 2010, and so far he's been an exceptional reliever in AAA. Unless a team they're trading to values him highly, I see no reason to trade him-- just look at his stats in the minors, overall they still look incredibly good.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bowden is being showcased, I agree with spud on this one. You dont bring up a guy who is new to the pen after 6 appearances in the minors unless you are doing something. My guess is that Bowden is gonna be a part of a deal for a reliever or for Dejesus

[Dojji]

If he landed us Chris Snyder, I'm not going to complain. We need a catcher in his prime to bridge to our guys who are at least 2-3 years away like Expo.

[Palodios]

Bowden is being showcased' date=' I agree with spud on this one. You dont bring up a guy who is new to the pen after 6 appearances in the minors unless you are doing something. My guess is that Bowden is gonna be a part of a deal for a reliever or for Dejesus[/quote']

 

I hate to be the one to point out the obvious, but maybe they brought him to the pen because the pen sucks and desperately needed help? Bowden had just gone through an impressive array of starts in AAA, and they reward his success by moving him to the pen? I doubt he'd get any more value as a reliever than a starter.

[Yaz Sideburn]

I hate to be the one to point out the obvious' date=' but maybe they brought him to the pen because the pen sucks and desperately needed help? Bowden had just gone through an impressive array of starts in AAA, and they reward his success by moving him to the pen? I doubt he'd get any more value as a reliever than a starter.[/quote']

 

yeah, it's just as likely that they brought it up to help their bullpen depth as it is that they're showcasing him. perhaps they'll use him in a trade for dejesus but it doesn't make sense to trade him for bullpen depth if he's going to provide quality innings out of the bullpen for the league minimum

[jacksonianmarch]

yeah' date=' it's just as likely that they brought it up to help their bullpen depth as it is that they're showcasing him. perhaps they'll use him in a trade for dejesus but it doesn't make sense to trade him for bullpen depth if he's going to provide quality innings out of the bullpen for the league minimum[/quote']

 

The sox could view it as a win-win here. Improve his value by strengthening their biggest weakness

[Yaz Sideburn]

The Red Sox have been inquiring about relievers over the past few days, but as of this weekend they were not close to any deal. We'll look into whether that's changed in the last 24 hours.

 

The ones who appear to be in play are the Marlins' Leo Nunez, anyone from Kansas City (except Soria), Seattle's Dave Aardsma, Houston's Matt Lindstrom, Toronto's Scott Downs, but for the moment the Sox would like to see what they have in Michael Bowden in that role and the price for all of the relievers is still quite high

 

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2010/07/pregame_news_an_5.html