Hitting & Pitching Win, Not Defense

[TheMino007]

Perusing the Major League Baseball standings, I am thinking about two teams that made a concerted and fairly significant shift in philosophy this offseason. Before I go into how these teams’ philosophy changed, a quote from Jermaine Dye’s agent, Bob Bry, strikes me as rather poignant, “…the emphasis on defense has reached the level of absurdity.” In this day and age of advanced statistics, developing ways to measure defensive aptitude has long been a goal of stat geeks who have more advanced analytical minds than me. While Mr. Bry’s comments are obviously self-serving, as his client no longer excels at playing the field, I think he may be onto something here. I don’t think Bry had any other intention but to promote his client by touting the stronger part of his game, offense. What he did do is challenge a belief that is currently sweeping through MLB and the people who follow it closely, that these defensive metrics are infallible and contribute in large part towards determining how good a team was, is or will be.

 

The two teams I mentioned above are the Boston Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners. Both of the front offices of these squads set in motion a fairly significant overhaul on the defensive side of the ball (some might say at the expense of their offense). Boston, long known as a team built around offense, signed such defensive specialists as Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron, while the Mariners acquired, via trade or free agency, Chone Figgins, Casey Kotchman and Jack Wilson (at the trade deadline last season). All five of these players were assumed to be fixtures in the lineups for their respective teams as well as defensive wizards. I realize that Cameron is injured, but the premise here is that Jason Bay was not re-signed by the Red Sox due to the concern that he would not hold up in the field and that his defense was so atrocious that it weighed down his value to the point that he wouldn’t be worth the contract he would eventually sign.

 

The defensive metric that paints these players in such a positive light is none other than fangraphs.com’s UZR/150 (ultimate zone rate per 150 games). UZR/150 is defined by fangraphs as, “The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, per 150 defensive games.” Simply put, if a player finishes a season at 15 UZR/150, if he were to play exactly 150 games, the assumption is that he had saved his team 15 runs more than that of an average fielder at his position. Baseball fans all across the internet use this statistic to determine whether a player will provide value on both sides of the ball. Fangraphs.com also uses this statistic in conjunction with their offensive numbers to grade the player as a whole. An extreme example of how much defense factors into their equation is this: according to their overall rating system (WAR), in 2009, Randy Winn was a more valuable player than Adam Dunn. Go to your favorite baseball stats website and look at their respective seasons at the plate and ask yourself how bad Adam Dunn’s defense would have to be for you to prefer to start Randy Winn over him in your outfield.

 

Before embarking on this analysis, I had a goal in mind of trying to determine the relationship between how a team performs with respect to UZR/150 and where that team finishes the season in the standings. I used the 2009 season for the analysis.

 

Based on the premise that performance in three different categories, hitting, pitching and defense, determine a team’s success, I employed three different variables: OPS, FIP (fielding independent pitching) and UZR/150. I then ranked all of the teams in baseball on all three of these variables and compared these rankings to the record they finished with (i.e. the Yankees won 103 games and are ranked first, the Angels won 97 games and are ranked second, so on and so forth).

 

Once these rankings were complete, I then compared the difference in rankings five different ways. These comparisons were done in absolute value, so as to only determine how far away from their actual final ranking they were and not how much better or worse they fared.

 

1) Combo: An average of a team’s ranking in OPS, FIP and UZR/150 [(OPS rank + FIP rank + UZR/150)/3] compared to their ranking in the final standings.

 

MLB Teams, on average, ranked 5.7 spots different than their OPS, FIP and UZR/150 indicated they should have.

 

2) Combo2: An average of a team’s ranking in OPS and FIP [(OPS rank + FIP rank)/2] compared to their ranking in the final standings.

 

MLB Teams, on average, ranked 4.8 spots different than their OPS and FIP indicated they should have.

 

3) UZR/150: A team’s ranking in UZR/150 compared to their ranking in the final standings

 

MLB Teams, on average, ranked 10.0 spots different than their UZR/150 indicated they should have.

 

4) OPS: A team’s ranking in OPS compared to their ranking in the final standings

 

MLB Teams, on average, ranked 5.9 spots different than their OPS indicated they should have.

 

5) FIP: A team’s ranking in FIP compared to their ranking in the final standings

 

MLB Teams, on average, ranked 7.3 spots different than their FIP indicated they should have.

 

What this analysis tells me is that of the three variables compared, UZR/150 is the worst indicator of team success. The best indicator of the three is OPS, essentially meaning that, according to this comparison, having a good offense is far more important than having a good defensive team. While it would be foolish of me to posit that defense is unimportant, what I do suggest is that it has much less to do with winning than offense and pitching does. I absolutely do not believe that offense, pitching and defense are three equal parts when determining how good a baseball team is. While it is only a guess, I would assign the following weights to the three facets of the game with regard to the importance of each when judging the overall strength of a team: 50% offense, 40% pitching, 10% defense. If I apply these weights to the original combined comparison:

 

1) MLB teams, on average, ranked 4.8 spots different than their OPS (50%), FIP (40%) and UZR/150 (10%) indicated they should have.

 

Please don’t misunderstand the point of this exercise. I truly believe baseball players should ably field their position, but it is getting to the point where a player’s defense is being overvalued. By the time a player reaches the big leagues, for the most part, I believe he is capable of playing passable defense, or else he wouldn’t be there (obviously, we are disregarding the DH position). Major League teams don’t normally toss a player onto the field unless that is the case, no matter how well you hit. I am just of the belief that the distance between passable and outstanding defense is not as wide of a spectrum that some people think it is, and this analysis seems to support that hypothesis. With all due respect to those developing methods to decipher who is flashing the most leather on the diamond, for the record, I would choose Adam Dunn’s 2009 season over Randy Winn’s 100 times out of 100 if given the chance.

 

I realize that this comparison has a few flaws in that the difference in leagues is not accounted for, what with there being nine “real” hitters in an American League lineup and eight in the National League. What I had hoped would even out the difference is that AL teams would rank higher in OPS, but lower in FIP, overall, and vice versa for the NL. Additionally, FIP is not a perfect statistic to rank pitching, but I chose it instead of ERA because FIP attempts to eliminate the influence that the defense has on a pitcher’s ERA, and we were already measuring the effect that defense has on a team’s success by using UZR/150. So, while this analysis isn’t perfect, I think it does have some value in demonstrating how the influence defense has on a team’s success may be getting overblown as of late.

 

Read more: http://baseball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/19953/20100508/how_important_is_fielding/#ixzz0nPBbXYFS

[TedWilliams101]

First of all, pitching and defense are just as important as offense. Second, we didn't let Bay walk because of his fielding, we let him walk because he wanted too much money and his knees weren't any good. 3rd, we didn't replace Bay with just Cameron, we replaced him with Beltre and Lackey too. I think having those 3 guys is more valuable than having just Bay.

 

Finally, sabermetrics aren't perect, no one is arguing that they are. Defense is important, but it's just a piece of the puzzle. It's about balance and value. There isn't anyone on our team that can't hit. As for Randy Winn, yeah, I'd take dunn over him too, but you are talking about a .1 difference in WAR. It's insignificant and hardly a great example if that's the best "gap" the guy could come up with.

 

It's not even that difficult to understand really, someone who is faster has more range and will get to more balls meaning less runs for opposing teams. Dunn is a little leaguer on defense compared to Winn. Winn's much faster, has a much greater range, much better glove, anticipation, can dive, etc etc. It could very well be the difference between winning a game 2-1 and losing 4-2. Now, i do believe Dunn's bat more than makes up for it, but I'm not actually all the surprised the value is so close.

 

I do want to point out that having good pitching is vital to defense. If you can't pitch there is really no point trying to build a strong defense. I know it's obvious, but pitching and defense go hand in hand, weak one and the other will become weak as a result, and vice versa.

[Dipre]

First of all, pitching and defense are just as important as offense. Second, we didn't let Bay walk because of his fielding, we let him walk because he wanted too much money and his knees weren't any good. 3rd, we didn't replace Bay with just Cameron, we replaced him with Beltre and Lackey too. I think having those 3 guys is more valuable than having just Bay.

 

Finally, sabermetrics aren't perect, no one is arguing that they are. Defense is important, but it's just a piece of the puzzle. It's about balance and value. There isn't anyone on our team that can't hit. As for Randy Winn, yeah, I'd take dunn over him too, but you are talking about a .1 difference in WAR. It's insignificant and hardly a great example if that's the best "gap" the guy could come up with.

 

It's not even that difficult to understand really, someone who is faster has more range and will get to more balls meaning less runs for opposing teams. Dunn is a little leaguer on defense compared to Winn. Winn's much faster, has a much greater range, much better glove, anticipation, can dive, etc etc. It could very well be the difference between winning a game 2-1 and losing 4-2. Now, i do believe Dunn's bat more than makes up for it, but I'm not actually all the surprised the value is so close.

 

I do want to point out that having good pitching is vital to defense. If you can't pitch there is really no point trying to build a strong defense. I know it's obvious, but pitching and defense go hand in hand, weak one and the other will become weak as a result, and vice versa.

 

Excellent post. The mere premise of discounting the importance of defense as an integral part of most winning ballclubs is ridiculous, not to mention the article is full of half-truths and complete lies.

[a700hitter]

First of all, pitching and defense are just as important as offense. Second, we didn't let Bay walk because of his fielding, we let him walk because he wanted too much money and his knees weren't any good. 3rd, we didn't replace Bay with just Cameron, we replaced him with Beltre and Lackey too. I think having those 3 guys is more valuable than having just Bay.

 

Finally, sabermetrics aren't perect, no one is arguing that they are. Defense is important, but it's just a piece of the puzzle. It's about balance and value. There isn't anyone on our team that can't hit. As for Randy Winn, yeah, I'd take dunn over him too, but you are talking about a .1 difference in WAR. It's insignificant and hardly a great example if that's the best "gap" the guy could come up with.

 

It's not even that difficult to understand really, someone who is faster has more range and will get to more balls meaning less runs for opposing teams. Dunn is a little leaguer on defense compared to Winn. Winn's much faster, has a much greater range, much better glove, anticipation, can dive, etc etc. It could very well be the difference between winning a game 2-1 and losing 4-2. Now, i do believe Dunn's bat more than makes up for it, but I'm not actually all the surprised the value is so close.

 

I do want to point out that having good pitching is vital to defense. If you can't pitch there is really no point trying to build a strong defense. I know it's obvious, but pitching and defense go hand in hand, weak one and the other will become weak as a result, and vice versa.

The off season moves were very ill-conceived. The team didn't need a third guy to play third base. After getting Lackey, they needed a big OF stick and a utility IF. They got neither. They got a third baseman that left Lowell with no useful purpose. They have no IF depth, because the utility guy they got (Hall) sucks all around the diamond. The plan was poor, the execution was poor in that they couldn't get anything of value for Lowell, and we are seeing this not bear fruit each and every game.

[Dipre]

The off season moves were very ill-conceived. The team didn't need a third guy to play third base. After getting Lackey' date=' they needed a big OF stick and a utility IF. They got neither. They got a third baseman that left Lowell with no useful purpose. They have no IF depth, because the utility guy they got (Hall) sucks all around the diamond. The plan was poor,[b'] the execution was poor in that they couldn't get anything of value for Lowell, and we are seeing this not bear fruit each and every game.[/b]

 

That's the main point IMO. They planned to get something of value for Lowell, but couldn't.

[example1]

The off season moves were very ill-conceived. The team didn't need a third guy to play third base. After getting Lackey' date=' they needed a big OF stick and a utility IF. They got neither. They got a third baseman that left Lowell with no useful purpose. They have no IF depth, because the utility guy they got (Hall) sucks all around the diamond. The plan was poor, the execution was poor in that they couldn't get anything of value for Lowell, and we are seeing this not bear fruit each and every game.[/quote']

 

The offseason moves were ill-conceived if we assume that their #1 priority was to put a team on the field that would absolutely beat the yankees (and Rays). I'm not convinced that this was one of those offseasons. I think this offseason was an attempt to keep the team in its most competitive position for the next few years rather than trying to win at all costs in 2010.

 

I imagine this infuriates you, as it approximates a team "giving up on a season". It is hard for me to swallow too, but in this division it might be the best strategy. The single player who swings this momentum isn't anyone who was available in 2010; rather, it was Teixeira and that horse has been beaten to death. Matt Holliday (who I wanted them to get) wasn't going to make this team better than NY or TB.

 

The question I have now is which strategy would be better:

 

1) Aim for the ideal power hitting 1B/3B (Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez) when they become FAs in a few years (as well as supplementing the rest of the club as needed).

 

2) Become a heavy bidder for Carlos Pena and Carl crawford and weaken Tampa Bay by trying to ensure both don't play in TB (realizing that Crawford may be destined for NY). Even if they don't go to Boston, going to another team would weaken Tampa. Perhaps the Sox can help drive up their prices.

 

Route #1 seems more thorough (and more Theo), but route #2 might be a vable option if they are concerned about being able to keep this team competitive in 2011.

[yankees228]

The offseason moves were ill-conceived if we assume that their #1 priority was to put a team on the field that would absolutely beat the yankees (and Rays). I'm not convinced that this was one of those offseasons. I think this offseason was an attempt to keep the team in its most competitive position for the next few years rather than trying to win at all costs in 2010.

 

I imagine this infuriates you, as it approximates a team "giving up on a season". It is hard for me to swallow too, but in this division it might be the best strategy. The single player who swings this momentum isn't anyone who was available in 2010; rather, it was Teixeira and that horse has been beaten to death. Matt Holliday (who I wanted them to get) wasn't going to make this team better than NY or TB.

 

The question I have now is which strategy would be better:

 

1) Aim for the ideal power hitting 1B/3B (Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez) when they become FAs in a few years (as well as supplementing the rest of the club as needed).

 

2) Become a heavy bidder for Carlos Pena and Carl crawford and weaken Tampa Bay by trying to ensure both don't play in TB (realizing that Crawford may be destined for NY). Even if they don't go to Boston, going to another team would weaken Tampa. Perhaps the Sox can help drive up their prices.

 

Route #1 seems more thorough (and more Theo), but route #2 might be a vable option if they are concerned about being able to keep this team competitive in 2011.

 

I'm not convinced the Yankees are going to go strong after Crawford. Assuming they resign Jeter and Rivera at similar rates, they'll probably only have room for one big money free agent. Considering two fifths of their starting rotation is probably leaving (Vazquez and Pettitte), I'd imagine they would want to make a strong at Cliff Lee.

 

They might expand the payroll to try and fit both, but I think they'll make Lee the priority, meaning they could certainly be outbid for Crawford.

[redsoxrules]

isn't Pujols a free agent after the season ?

[example1]

There is a 2011 club option.

 

Not that he's available, but I imagine Pujols is the type of impact player the Sox would offer upwards of $30m to if given the opportunity.

[yankees228]

Yeah, just like with Mauer, I'd be surprised if Pujols reaches free agency.

[jacksonianmarch]

They wont have room for Crawford if Gardner continues to show he belongs. And no, I dont think he's gonna hit .350 for the season.

 

This article isnt full of half truths or lies. It shows that defense is OVER-valued. Defense is important. But there is a point where you need to score more runs on offense and prevent more runs with pitching. I have always put offense and pitching 1-2 with defense being a distant 3rd. And, defense at specific positions should be considered a boon. LF defense? Really, is that something that should be important, assuming said player can hit 30 bombs and have an OPS near .900? Defense at 3b is also highly overvalued, unless you are a Brooks Robinson type player who can make all spectacular and routine plays, then your defense is going to be significantly outweighed by your offense. I have said it all along, defense UP THE MIDDLE is the most important aspect of a team's defense. The recent surge to have every 3b and LFer be dominant defensive forces will self correct in a few yrs. Until then, I will enjoy the ride

[Soxfaninjersey]

Garder is a beast

[Dipre]

They wont have room for Crawford if Gardner continues to show he belongs. And no, I dont think he's gonna hit .350 for the season.

 

This article isnt full of half truths or lies. It shows that defense is OVER-valued. Defense is important. But there is a point where you need to score more runs on offense and prevent more runs with pitching. I have always put offense and pitching 1-2 with defense being a distant 3rd. And, defense at specific positions should be considered a boon. LF defense? Really, is that something that should be important, assuming said player can hit 30 bombs and have an OPS near .900? Defense at 3b is also highly overvalued, unless you are a Brooks Robinson type player who can make all spectacular and routine plays, then your defense is going to be significantly outweighed by your offense. I have said it all along, defense UP THE MIDDLE is the most important aspect of a team's defense. The recent surge to have every 3b and LFer be dominant defensive forces will self correct in a few yrs. Until then, I will enjoy the ride

 

Jacko, when you want to forcefully introduce a really stupid opinion, you'll go all out to do so, which is hilarious.

 

How exactly is defense overrated?

 

Fact: A good defense improves a pitching staff's performance. So for a pitching staff to be as effective as it can be, good defense is required.

 

This is just another one of your attempts to minimize the Pitching and Defense strategy as propaganda. While it's true that D up the middle is the most important aspect, you'd be retarded to say that strong defense at every position (including 3B and LF) does not have a direct impact on the amount of runs allowed by a baseball team, specially if you consider the type of pitching stff owned by the Red Sox.

 

Funny thing is, had the Yankees taken a similar approach, you'd have jumped on the bandwagon so fast you'd have strained your back in the process. Then again, i expect nothing less from you, and neither should anyone else. Please continue, like the article, to spew "facts" suited to the convenience of your extremely annoying arguments.

[Dipre]

LF defense? Really' date=' is that something that should be important, assuming said player can hit 30 bombs and have an OPS near .900? [/quote']

 

Marcus Thames says hello, but defense is unimportant.

[YeAuldBroade]

Marcus Thames says hello' date=' but defense is unimportant.[/quote']

 

hehe

[VA Sox Fan]

What is pitchnig?

[Youk Of The Nation]

Yeah I couldn't stand looking at that.

[ORS]

That "study" is funny. First of all, the difference from average is unimportant in what is trying to be measured. What is important is the correlation between wins and rank in those categories. More important, the assumption in the analysis is that those teams ignored offense in their attempt to field well.

 

This isn't the case. It is about run differential. I think the Sox knew they would have a less productive offense, and the attempt was to mitigate that by an equal level of run prevention. If you can keep the run differential static, your expected won/loss record improves as the overall scoring decreases. For example, with a run differential of 162, you are 162-0 when your run scoring for the season is 162-0 (1-0 win every game), and you are 82-80 when your run scoring is 2162-2000. Yes, these are unlikely extreme examples, but they are used to quickly demonstrate the concept.

 

These teams didn't just try and win the UZR/150 measure. They tried to offset any offensive loss with defensive gain. Whether or not that will happen over a full season remains to be seen. My guess is that forecasting run prevention is much more difficult than forecasting run scoring, so there is more risk attempting this strategy.