Have the Red Sox improved or regressed?

[GiveMeMyNomar5]

I honestly think the Red Sox are regressing on the offensive side of the ball. We are going to have to rely on our defense and pitching this year. We have (arguably) the best starting 5 and defense in the league, along with one of the more dominant closers of the past 4 years. I'm not too worried. If our players stay healthy, and we get good production out of Ortiz this year, we should be fine. We have Ortiz, Vic, and Youk that can go deep 30+ times this year. JD, Cameron, and Beltre will hit between 15-25 dingers, and Scuturo, Ellsbury and Pedey will have fewer than 10 a piece. I'm not all that worried.

[Emmz]

I could potentially see Cameron and Beltre hitting over the 25 mark, but that's a high estimate, maybe even low 30 mark.

 

I agree that maybe we've regressed on paper, but I expect a full season of Ortiz being about where he was after the terrible start. Add in Beltre, who I believe is about the same as Lowell offensively, with far superior defense, Cameron, who isn't Bay offensively, but his defense is way superior, Scutaro, who's not great defensively, but better than what we had before Gonzales, and MUCH better than anyone we had last year offensively, as well as a full year of V-Mart. I think that brings us pretty close to where we were last season.

 

Along with that, our starting five is, on paper, the best in baseball, there's not too much of an argument about that (Unless you're a homering Yankee fan who thinks that Vasquez is going to be an ace this year. Not naming any names).

 

All of the improvements and upgrades, in my opinion, make us a better ball club, and I expect us to win more games, and compete in the playoffs. I also like that the Yankees have offensively regressed, replacing Damon, Matsui and Melky with Nick "Feeblebonez" Johnson, Curtis Granderson and Brett "The Benchwarmer" Gardner.

[Imperial59]

I honestly think the Red Sox are regressing on the offensive side of the ball. We are going to have to rely on our defense and pitching this year. We have (arguably) the best starting 5 and defense in the league' date=' along with one of the more dominant closers of the past 4 years. I'm not too worried. If our players stay healthy, and we get good production out of Ortiz this year, we should be fine. We have Ortiz, Vic, and Youk that can go deep 30+ times this year. JD, Cameron, and Beltre will hit between 15-25 dingers, and Scuturo, Ellsbury and Pedey will have fewer than 10 a piece. I'm not all that worried.[/quote']

 

This has been discussed a couple times, but I don't think we're regressing all that much offensively. We're losing a good chunk of offense going from Bay to Cameron, no doubt. But we're picking up a good chunk of offense going from Varitek to V-Mart, from Green to Scutaro and from Lowell to Beltre.

 

Perhaps there will be some minor regression, but I think the MAJOR improvements we made to our pitching and defense will be more than enough to improve on the 95 win team we had last year.

 

And offensively, there are some things that could happen that improve our offense compared to last year. If Ellsbury's .389 OBP in the minors finally translates to the majors, we're a better offensive team. If David Ortiz has a bounce back year, we're much better offensively. If Feway Park has the effect on Beltre that it did in Lowell, we could have another 30 HR, 100 RBI middle of the order bat.

 

If you remember, Lowell went from a .236/.298/.360 hitter for Florida in 2005 to a .284/.339/.475 hitter for us the next year and a .324/.378/.501 hitter the year after. Fenway can do wonders for RH pull hitters like Beltre.

[Imperial59]

I could potentially see Cameron and Beltre hitting over the 25 mark' date=' but that's a high estimate, maybe even low 30 mark.[/quote']

 

I think it's rather safe to estimate 25 home runs for Beltre. He's hit 25+ 3 of the last 4 years hitting in Safeco and on the road he's been a 30 HR, 100 RBI hitter.

[Emmz]

This has been discussed a couple times, but I don't think we're regressing all that much offensively. We're losing a good chunk of offense going from Bay to Cameron, no doubt. But we're picking up a good chunk of offense going from Varitek to V-Mart, from Green to Scutaro and from Lowell to Beltre.

 

Perhaps there will be some minor regression, but I think the MAJOR improvements we made to our pitching and defense will be more than enough to improve on the 95 win team we had last year.

 

And offensively, there are some things that could happen that improve our offense compared to last year. If Ellsbury's .389 OBP in the minors finally translates to the majors, we're a better offensive team. If David Ortiz has a bounce back year, we're much better offensively. If Feway Park has the effect on Beltre that it did in Lowell, we could have another 30 HR, 100 RBI middle of the order bat.

 

If you remember, Lowell went from a .236/.298/.360 hitter for Florida in 2005 to a .284/.339/.475 hitter for us the next year and a .324/.378/.501 hitter the year after. Fenway can do wonders for RH pull hitters like Beltre.

 

Not to mention Beltre has more power than Lowell ever had.

[Emmz]

And Cameron has hit around 20-25 HR in San Diego and Milwaukee over the past 4 seasons... I think he could certainly hit the upper half of the 20's at Fenway, with low-30's being the absolute dream scenario.

[Dipre]

One look at Beltre's home/road splits and one look at Fenway's effect on right handed flyball hitters, as well as another look at Beltre's and Lowell's career stats, and logic keeps hitting me with its hammer telling me there will be no "significant dropoff" going from one to the other no matter what some biased Yankee fans might want me to believe.

[Imperial59]

Not to mention Beltre has more power than Lowell ever had.

 

I don't know if he has more power than Lowell EVER had. Lowell did hit 32 home runs one year. But Lowell hasn't reached the 25 home run mark since 2004. Beltre's done it three of the last four years.

[Dipre]

I don't know if he has more power than Lowell EVER had. Lowell did hit 32 home runs one year. But Lowell hasn't reached the 25 home run mark since 2004. Beltre's done it three of the last four years.

 

Beltre hit 48 once. They might have both been aided by the same brand of milkshakes......

[Imperial59]

And Cameron has hit around 20-25 HR in San Diego and Milwaukee over the past 4 seasons... I think he could certainly hit the upper half of the 20's at Fenway' date=' with low-30's being the absolute dream scenario.[/quote']

 

Cameron will probably see a bump in his numbers being that he's going from some very unfriendly hitting parks to Fenway Park. It's impressive that he hit 20+ home runs both his years playing in San Diego.

[Imperial59]

Beltre hit 48 once. They might have both been aided by the same brand of milkshakes......

 

Yeah, if we're talking about the players off of steroids, Beltre has much more power

[rhet]

Beltre hit 48 once. They might have both been aided by the same brand of milkshakes......

 

 

Really?

Do you know what steroids do to people with cancer?

[rhet]

One look at Beltre's home/road splits and one look at Fenway's effect on right handed flyball hitters' date=' as well as another look at Beltre's and Lowell's career stats, and logic keeps hitting me with its hammer telling me there will be no "significant dropoff" going from one to the other no matter what some biased Yankee fans might want me to believe.[/quote']

 

 

Except for about 40 points off OBP.

[Keeper]

Cameron will probably see a bump in his numbers being that he's going from some very unfriendly hitting parks to Fenway Park. It's impressive that he hit 20+ home runs both his years playing in San Diego.

 

Miller Park is a hitter's park. What about his age? He's 37 now. Jeter is a year and a half younger. Posada is not quite a year older. According to you, they will almost certainly regress. I can't argue with that, but why the double standard for Cameron?

[SoxSport]

They should be significantly improved. I still can't figure out how they managed to win 95 games last year, so I don't expect their wins to increase by much.

[Dipre]

Except for about 40 points off OBP.

 

This has to be a joke, because if it isn't, then please check the stats.

[Dipre]

Really?

Do you know what steroids do to people with cancer?

 

Really?

 

Do you have any way to know if any player (Lowell included) didn't use steroids at some point in their career?

[jacksonianmarch]

Miller Park is a hitter's park. What about his age? He's 37 now. Jeter is a year and a half younger. Posada is not quite a year older. According to you' date=' they will almost certainly regress. I can't argue with that, but why the double standard for Cameron?[/quote']

 

exactly. I couldnt agree more

[Dipre]

I say no on regression for Cameron or Jeter. If Posada catches less than 120 games, no on him either.

[Imperial59]

Miller Park is a hitter's park.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

 

Actually, it's one of the most extreme pitcher's parks in baseball.

 

What about his age? He's 37 now. Jeter is a year and a half younger. Posada is not quite a year older. According to you' date=' they will almost certainly regress. I can't argue with that, but why the double standard for Cameron?[/quote']

 

I never claimed that Jeter and Posada are going to regress just because of their ages. I said they're going to regress because they had years which were significantly above their career averages last year, and in their late 30's players tend to regress towards their career averages and eventually decline.

[Imperial59]

exactly. I couldnt agree more

 

Of course you agree that Miller Park is a friendly hitter's park even though it's an extreme pitcher's park. You'd agree with someone who disagreed with me if they said the sky was yellow.

[Imperial59]

This has to be a joke' date=' because if it isn't, then please check the stats.[/quote']

 

Yeah, I left that one alone because I was baffled by what stats they could have been referring to.

[Dipre]

Of course you agree that Miller Park is a friendly hitter's park even though it's an extreme pitcher's park. You'd agree with someone who disagreed with me if they said the sky was yellow.

 

Nah dude. Miller is a launching pad for lefties that's around league average for righties, but it's not Fenway, which is a launching pad for righties.

[Emmz]

Miller Park is a hitter's park. What about his age? He's 37 now. Jeter is a year and a half younger. Posada is not quite a year older. According to you' date=' they will almost certainly regress. I can't argue with that, but why the double standard for Cameron?[/quote']

 

Because he's going to one of the premier launching pads for his style, something that Miller Park is NOT. Jeter is in the same park this year.

 

Cameron's stats will go up, Jeter's stats will probably remain about the same, with a probably regression considering the fact that he had about the best year he's EVER had.

 

That's the difference.

[Imperial59]

Nah dude. Miller is a launching pad for lefties that's around league average for righties' date=' but it's not Fenway, which is a launching pad for righties.[/quote']

 

1. Cameron obviously is not a lefty.

 

2. Miller Park was the 4th worst friendly hitter's park in MLB last year in terms of runs scored.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

[yankees228]

1. Cameron obviously is not a lefty.

 

2. Miller Park was the 4th worst friendly hitter's park in MLB last year in terms of runs scored.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

 

So I guess, by your logic, Yankee Stadium is a pitcher's park...

[Imperial59]

So I guess' date=' by your logic, Yankee Stadium is a pitcher's park...[/quote']

 

Yes, Yankee Stadium is a slight pitcher's park (it only cuts down on run production by about 3% so it's nearly neutral). It's the best home run hitting park in baseball, but home runs make up a small portion of team offense.

[Keeper]

Yankee Stadium is a pitcher's park. I'll have to remember that.

[Imperial59]

Yankee Stadium is a pitcher's park. I'll have to remember that.

 

It's more or less neutral. But Miller Park is not at all neutral. It cut down on run production by 11.5%, which made it the 4th worst hitting ballpark in baseball last year. It has had a negative effect on run production both of the years that Cameron has played there.

[Emmz]

I personally think that a park that has a strong advantage for a certain type of hitter should be considered hitters parks, with an asterisk. At Miller Park, the advantage did not apply for Cameron, but at Fenway, it would. However, both parks are still hitter's parks. I think the only 100% hitter's park is Coors, which is basically going to bad any, and every type of hitter's stats.