Why the obsession with A-Gon? Considering other alternatives...

[Dipre]

PNC Park:

 

 

Runs Hit HR 2B 3B BB

1.022 1.054 1.053 0.939 0.714 0.969

 

Above average on Runs, hits and HR's.

 

 

 

Safeco:

 

Runs Hit HR 2B 3B BB

0.947 0.886 0.984 0.911 0.842 1.085

 

Below average on everything but BB.

 

MLB park Factors

[Dipre]

Well if you're going to round on me for smugness, you guys could maybe start by checking your freaking facts. You were dead wrong about LaRoche's offense vs. Beltre's, don't try to turn that around by getting offended at me by pointing it out.

 

And for the record, I don't want LaRoche because I'm desperate for LaRoche. I want LaRoche because I want us to go balls to the wall after Hanley and pick up a real slugging LF, and LaRoche will do to replace Lowell and complete the offseason. He's PART of the plan, he isn't the plan by himself. But SS is more important.

 

If dead wrong means ignoring obvious factors to suit your arguments, then yes, we are indeed wrong, however:

 

1)You tried to compare PNC to Safeco, that is fallacy.

 

2) You compared Beltre to Jacoby Ellsbury. That is fallacy.

 

3) You fail to establish a consistent thought process applying logical values.

[Dojji]

Do you have the info on the park factors to back up your claim?

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2008

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2007

 

It bounces between average stadium and major pitchers' park depending on the year. Last 3 seasons, it was 14th, 27th, and 20th in runs respectively.

 

Which suggests a certain variability that would mean maybe park factors have some random factors involved and shouldn't be taken too seriously in most cases.

[Emmz]

Well if you're going to round on me for smugness' date=' you guys could maybe start by checking your freaking facts. You were dead wrong about LaRoche's offense vs. Beltre's, don't try to turn that around by getting offended at me by pointing it out.[/quote']

 

The ballpark factors for PNC Park: Check them.

 

And for the record, I don't want LaRoche because I'm desperate for LaRoche. I want LaRoche because I want us to go balls to the wall after Hanley and pick up a real slugging LF, and LaRoche will do to replace Lowell and complete the offseason. He's PART of the plan, he isn't the plan by himself. But SS is more important.

 

We made a push for Scutaro, pretty sure we're sticking with him. It's really that simple. If we saw ourselves with Hanley, we wouldn't have made such a deal. Also, Beltre costs little more than LaRoche does, and is an upgrade offensively and defensively.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dojji, turn off MLB 09 the Show and join reality.

[Rdsxmbnt]

can all you pots stop calling the kettle black

[Dipre]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2008

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2007

 

It bounces between average stadium and major pitchers' park depending on the year. Last 3 seasons, it was 14th, 27th, and 20th in runs respectively.

 

Which suggests a certain variability that would mean maybe park factors have some random factors involved and shouldn't be taken too seriously in most cases.

 

Conveniently ignored 2009.

[Emmz]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2008

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/year/2007

 

It bounces between average stadium and major pitchers' park depending on the year. Last 3 seasons, it was 14th, 27th, and 20th in runs respectively.

 

Hey, uhhhh, Dojji. Those be from, well, not this year.

[Dipre]

Dojji' date=' turn off MLB 09 the Show and join reality.[/quote']

 

Jacko, + respect for this post.

[Dipre]

can all you pots stop calling the kettle black

 

Fantastic contribution.

[Dojji]

Oh, interesting stat -- to me anyway -- Fenway is apparently one of the consistently hardest places for a generic hitter to HR in the big leagues. Sort of suggests that a guy who all he does productively is homer may not be a good fit.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Hey' date=' uhhhh, Dojji. Those be from, well, not this year.[/quote']

 

Does the park change shapes or something? I'm pretty sure much of Dojj's argument consisted of past years stats also...

[Dojji]

Conveniently ignored 2009.

 

Sure, since it was a pretty neutral result. Point stands based on 2008 and 2007 though.

 

Also, just look at how much year to year variability there is in "park factors." And look how many of the league's worst offenses line the bottom of that list. I'm sure the park contrubutes some to that, but there's a legitimate chicken-and-egg question here too. Although I'm sure I can count on you to arrogantly and cavalierly dismiss that, since it doesn't support your lust for Beltre.

[Dipre]

Oh' date=' interesting stat -- to me anyway -- Fenway is apparently one of the consistently hardest places for a generic hitter to HR in the big leagues. Sort of suggests that a guy who all he does productively is homer may not be a good fit.[/quote']

 

Not for RHH.

[Emmz]

can all you pots stop calling the kettle black

 

Trying to continue an old fight that was dropped in favor of using statistics? I think that's a little contradictory.

[redsoxrevenge]

20 AAV/7 years gets it done IMO.

 

I say he gets $25 million at the minimum.

[Dipre]

Sure' date=' since it was a pretty neutral result. Point stands based on 2008 and 2007 though.[/quote']

 

Good point.

[Emmz]

Does the park change shapes or something? I'm pretty sure much of Dojj's argument consisted of past years stats also...

 

Two convenient years for him to choose. It's really that simple. 2009 is damaging to his argument.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Trying to continue an old fight that was dropped in favor of using statistics? I think that's a little contradictory.

 

Old fight? This is the same stuff I've been reading for the past couple months, you guys are still dicks to everyone, especially Dojj.

[Emmz]

Old fight? This is the same stuff I've been reading for the past couple months' date=' you guys are still dicks to everyone, especially Dojj.[/quote']

 

There's no reason to bring it up. It's a lack of maturity on your behalf. Baiting attempt is denied.

[Dipre]

Park construction:

 

 

PNC Park:

 

PNC Park.

 

Safeco:

 

Safeco Field.

 

Which looks more forgiving to you: PNC vs lefties? or Safeco vs righties?

[Emmz]

I say he gets $25 million at the minimum.

 

I said somewhere that he'd make 20M/yr, but I also said that he may make a bit more. He would make that figure in most cases, but I think he's willing to take a bit off for the Twins.

[Dipre]

that's simply not true. LaRoche has been a consistent .800-.850 OPS hitter. Beltre has been a consistent .750-.800 OPS hittter. LaRoche has been consistently, if slightly, superior to Beltre as a hitter every year the two have both been in the league.

 

In fact, they were only tied one year, in 2007, and that was Beltre's best season since his breakout in 2004 -- and LaRoche's worst year since his rookie campaign.

 

And going further back, LaRoche's WORST offensive season, his .775 OPS 2005 campaign, represented about an average year for Beltre.

 

LaRoche has a career .834 OPS to Beltre's .770. And it aiin't exactly like the Pittsburgh Pirates have been spoiling him with vast protection in that lineup of theirs

 

Yeah, Beltre's OPS is the same as Ellsbury's. Whatta sluggah!

 

Beltre wins everything back in defense, and in his position along the defensive spectrum, but when it comes to offense alone, LaRoche is clearly the better hitter.

 

Old fight? This is the same stuff I've been reading for the past couple months' date=' you guys are still dicks to everyone, especially Dojj.[/quote']

 

This is what started everything. You're talking out of your ass and not contributing anything. All i'm going to say about that.

[Dojji]

Not for RHH.

 

Actually, this is a much better doubles park than it is a HR park. In fact Fenway is consistently THE doubles park. That wall may be shallow, but you lose a lot of the benefit of that from a HR perspective by having it be freaking 100 feet tall. On the other hand, it's a great park for line drive hitters, and the more contact and more line drives, the better.

 

That's why a guy like Mike Lowell, who hits a lot of line drives, hits for a high average, but isn't a huge HR hitter, thrives here -- while guys like Wily Mo Pena or Jeremy Giambi who are dependent on the long bomb, tend to struggle a bit.

 

Also it's a testament to just how awesome Big Papi really was that he hit all those HR's here in his prime, even with the park factors... well... factored in.

 

What that means in real terms is that Derek Jeter would have probably been about the best Fenway hitter in the history of ever. It's why Youkilis has thrived here, and ditto for Pedroia -- they're the kind of hitter that will do well here. Guys like Beltre, or Adrian Gonzalez -- or, yes, Adam LaRoche -- will probably NOT perform up to their averages here, because they're dependent on something that isn't easy to hit.

 

And, ironically enough given our team's history, we might have one of the best parks ever to put a speedy fast lineup into, one that can score from first on a double consistently.

[Dipre]

I say he gets $25 million at the minimum.

 

I sincerely doubt he'll get 25 AAV. That's why i said the contract would probably have an incremental value.

[Emmz]

How's about getting back on topic?

 

I agree with you, the park factors for the Mariners and Beltre are more punishing than the ones for PNC and LaRoche.

[Dipre]

Actually, this is a much better doubles park than it is a HR park. In fact Fenway is consistently THE doubles park. That wall may be shallow, but you lose a lot of the benefit of that from a HR perspective by having it be freaking 100 feet tall. On the other hand, it's a great park for line drive hitters, and the more contact and more line drives, the better.

 

That's why a guy like Mike Lowell, who hits a lot of line drives, hits for a high average, but isn't a huge HR hitter, thrives here -- while guys like Wily Mo Pena or Jeremy Giambi who are dependent on the long bomb, tend to struggle a bit.

 

Also it's a testament to just how awesome Big Papi really was that he hit all those HR's here in his prime, even with the park factors... well... factored in.

 

What that means in real terms is that Derek Jeter would have probably been about the best Fenway hitter in the history of ever. It's why Youkilis has thrived here, and ditto for Pedroia -- they're the kind of hitter that will do well here. Guys like Beltre, or Adrian Gonzalez -- or, yes, Adam LaRoche -- will probably NOT perform up to their averages here, because they're dependent on something that isn't easy to hit.

 

However,looking at the park aspect, we both know that Fenway is a brutal park for lefty pull hitters, AKA Adam Laroche.

 

Look, the point is, that when you measure defense, ballpark projection and actual value, Beltre outweighs LaRoche.

 

You're welcome to think otherwise if you want. But at least present your points without the smugness like you've been doing after the mini-shitstorm.

[jacksonianmarch]

20 AAV/7 years gets it done IMO.

 

Depends on what happens in Yankee land. If Montero shows he's useless behind the dish and Romine doesnt step up in 2010, then I expect the Yanks to be in on it. And if NY is in on it, you better believe the dollars will exceed that.

[Dipre]

Depends on what happens in Yankee land. If Montero shows he's useless behind the dish and Romine doesnt step up in 2010' date=' then I expect the Yanks to be in on it. And if NY is in on it, you better believe the dollars will exceed that.[/quote']

 

I still highly doubt he hits FA. But that's a personal opinion so i know it doesn't hold much water. All we can do is wait and see.

[Emmz]

Depends on what happens in Yankee land. If Montero shows he's useless behind the dish and Romine doesnt step up in 2010' date=' then I expect the Yanks to be in on it. And if NY is in on it, you better believe the dollars will exceed that.[/quote']

 

Yeah, but we're assuming he stays with the Twins with that number. If the Yankees were to sign him, which I doubt very much, he'd make closer to 30M/yr than 20M, IMO.