What to expect next season?

[netpox]

What should we expect next season?

[msubulldogs21]

More Boston Red Sox Rhinestone Bling Hats!

 

Those are my expecations anyway...

[Dojji]

More of the same. 93-97 wins, and a ticket to the postseason. Meanwhile the Yankees play a few wins over pythag and their fans strut around like they own the world because their team looks like it played a whole lot better than it actually did.

[rhet]

The Yankee core had a trend reversal this year...

 

Jeter (age 35): 2008 OPS+ 102, 2009 OPS+ 129

Matsui (age 35): 2008 OPS+ 108, 2009 OPS+ 128

Damon (age 35): 2008 OPS+ 118, 2009 OPS+ 123

Posada (age 37): 2008 OPS+ 103, 2009 OPS+ 130

Cabrera (age 24): 2008 OPS+ 68, 2009 OPS+ 97

Cano (age 26): 2008 OPS+ 86, 2009 OPS+ 126

Swisher (age 28): 2008 OPS+ 92, 2009 OPS+ 126

 

Arod and Tex had their usual productive years, but the other seven hitters all trended up significantly.

Can they do that again next year?

[Dipre]

The Yankee core had a trend reversal this year...

 

Jeter (age 35): 2008 OPS+ 102, 2009 OPS+ 129

Matsui (age 35): 2008 OPS+ 108, 2009 OPS+ 128

Damon (age 35): 2008 OPS+ 118, 2009 OPS+ 123

Posada (age 37): 2008 OPS+ 103, 2009 OPS+ 130

Cabrera (age 24): 2008 OPS+ 68, 2009 OPS+ 97

Cano (age 26): 2008 OPS+ 86, 2009 OPS+ 126

Swisher (age 28): 2008 OPS+ 92, 2009 OPS+ 126

 

Arod and Tex had their usual productive years, but the other seven hitters all trended up significantly.

Can they do that again next year?

 

The stadium didn't hurt them (specially Damon) at all.

[stocker323]

I think they'll take a step back, rebuild a bit, and load themselves up for 2011. Bay is going to be too expensive to keep and there are no real alternatives on the market or available for trade. I think they take a regression next year, keep relatively the same lineup together and not plan on making a major splash this season. Most of their top prospects are in the lower levels right now, so once they come up by 2011 then I think the Sox are a force to be reckoned with. Will they make the playoffs? Possibly. But I don't see them contending for a championship next year.

[rhet]

The stadium didn't hurt them (specially Damon) at all.

 

No doubt. Home field was huge for them.

 

But still, they led the league in ROAD home runs too.

[witty_alias]

More of the same.....which is not bad IMO

[Dipre]

No doubt. Home field was huge for them.

 

But still, they led the league in ROAD home runs too.

 

You can thank Swisher for being a major contributor in that aspect.

[msubulldogs21]

I'm going to withhold judgement until, you know, free agency plays out.

[Lester82]

Btw... I wouldn't downplay the impact of Contract year Josh Beckett in 2010.

 

He kind of has been less than what he should be at times since 2007.

 

He got passed by as ace for the last two years, has had one truely great/spectacular season in Boston in 2007. I can certainly see a 2007-esque Josh Beckett in 2010 (contract time).

[BSN07]

Btw... I wouldn't downplay the impact of Contract year Josh Beckett in 2010.

 

He kind of has been less than what he should be at times since 2007.

 

He got passed by as ace for the last two years, has had one truely great/spectacular season in Boston in 2007. I can certainly see a 2007-esque Josh Beckett in 2010 (contract time).

 

If the Sox don't go out and get a young frontline SP like Felix, I think they will try to extend Beckett this off season. It would behoove them to try at least. If he comes out and has a huge contract year, your looking at 20M + a year deal for certain. Right now I think they could sign him for something less the CC but on par or more the AJ.

[jacksonianmarch]

Beckett was on his way to a career yr when a back issue flared up and made him pedestrian. You are gonna have to face the facts here guys. Beckett is a dominant starter when he's 100% healthy. When he is not, he either goes on the shelf or fights though it and is a below average pitcher. He's the JD Drew of pitchers. And he seems to be hurt at the wrong times. Yrs 1 and 2 in Boston, he was fine. Yrs 3 and 4 have seen him limp into the postseason. Might be time for him to shed the "ace" title and for him to get more rest during the season so he is fresher for the postseason

[Lester82]

Isn't AJ Burnett on your team?

 

Enjoy how he holds up over the 5 years, 16 or so million per...

[Lester82]

" Beckett is a dominant starter when he's 100% healthy. "

 

Wow, you just described every pitcher in major league baseball.

[Lester82]

Btw... I wouldn't downplay the impact of Contract year Josh Beckett in 2010.

 

He kind of has been less than what he should be at times since 2007.

 

He got passed by as ace for the last two years, has had one truely great/spectacular season in Boston in 2007. I can certainly see a 2007-esque Josh Beckett in 2010 (contract time).

 

 

but anyway, the point of the above post, is no way Beckett isn't gonna get his s*** together bigtime in 2010 - contract time.

 

I think he'll be a monster. With a co-ace in Jon Lester and ....Clay Buchholz as a number 3 the whole year. * Possibly Felix Hernandez, but not likely.

 

make some upgrades to the lineup, and with the pitching the Red Sox front their rotation with, it just won't be a shocking development to see the Red Sox in the WS.

[jacksonianmarch]

Guys, Beckett HAD his s*** together in 2009. He just got hurt at the end of the yr. He had a run of 14 or 15 starts where he looked like Pedro circa 1999. The only thing you can hope for is a completely healthy Beckett for 2010. If he is completely healthy start to finish, then he will be an ace. If he isnt healthy, then he is gonna limp into that big contract.

 

Also, it might be time to space him out. Francona uses him like a rented mule and never seems to give him the extra days of rest that a guy with his injury history might need.

[ORS]

The stadium didn't hurt them (specially Damon) at all.

OPS+ accounts for home park, so what rhet is asking is a legitimate question IMO. Ignore Swisher, Cano, and Cabrera because they are either in or about to enter ages associated with the prime phase of player production. The others are all well over that age, and it's within reason to question if those performances can be repeated as they age further.

 

However, it also assumes Matsui and Damon will both be back in a year when Holliday and Bay will be available. I'm not so sure that will be the case.

[FourFriends1679]

I hate to say it, but I expect (HOPE FOR might be a better way to say it) a little LESS patience with DAVID ORITZ.

 

Don't get me wrong: I LOVE THE GUY. But he's done. Washed-up. And over-priced.

 

Everyone's down on Varitek's bat, but Ortiz really wasn't all that much better. And he's a DH! You can live with a offensive black hole at Catcher, just like at Short, if the player brings something else, which 'Tek does. But if a DH can't hit... why bother?

 

He gave us some good memories, but I don't think we'll be seeing that anymore, second half resurgence not withstanding. He reminds me of Jim Rice c.1987-89 or Mo Vaughn with the Mets.

 

Harsh, I know. And I truly do hate to say it. But he was by far the biggest disappointment in the lineup in BOTH of the last two years. I wrote a post like this, saying about the same thing, about a year ago on oneredseat.com, based on his 2008 season.

 

I really hate being right all the time!

[Dipre]

OPS+ accounts for home park, so what rhet is asking is a legitimate question IMO. Ignore Swisher, Cano, and Cabrera because they are either in or about to enter ages associated with the prime phase of player production. The others are all well over that age, and it's within reason to question if those performances can be repeated as they age further.

 

However, it also assumes Matsui and Damon will both be back in a year when Holliday and Bay will be available. I'm not so sure that will be the case.

 

I wasn't referring to Damon's OPS+, i was referring to his 915/795 home/road OPS splits, since he was the only Yankee player besides Swisher, who had a reverse 776/946 home/road split, to have an extreme difference in home/road OPS, however, the fact that the stadium tremendously helped their overall production is legit IMHO.

[TheMino007]

Obviously its too early to b/c we haven't even entered the offseason, nevermind free agency, but I expect the Sox to win the Wild Card next year and have around 95 wins. Unless we make several drastic moves, I don't see us catching the Yankees and winning the East.

 

At this point there is no such thing as having Josh Beckett healthy for an entire season, you can only hope he isn't hurt down the stretch run and into the playoffs.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree, it is way too early. I expect NY to patch their holes well enough to stay in the lead. I expect Boston to kick a TON of tires this offseason and for there to be some serious rumors hanging around from here until April. But how many of those tires get purchased will determine the sox fate.

 

If they get a guy like Abreu for LF and dont upgrade anywhere else, I think they are in danger of losing out on the playoffs. If they do something more, then I think a wild card spot is a pretty good bet

[Dipre]

If you don't think that with a couple tweaks the Sox can contend for the division, you're using drugs.

[TheMino007]

Those are going to have to be some major tweaks my friend.

[Dojji]

No they aren't. By pythag we're not that far behind the Yankees, we just had some epic slumps at the wrong times this season. We need to pick up about +30 runs this offseason and we should be good to go. With black holes last year at SS and C for much of the season that shouldn't be too difficult to do.

[Dipre]

Those are going to have to be some major tweaks my friend.

 

Nonsense.

 

A healthy season from the starting rotation, and replace the defensive suck at SS while taking out the black hole at C and replace it with V-Mart, plus what should be a more consistent season from Papi, and the only question marks are LF and the #5 starter. Fill those with Holliday/Bay and a reasonable option, and we're good to go.

 

The inferiority complex needs to die in a fire.

[jacksonianmarch]

If you don't think that with a couple tweaks the Sox can contend for the division' date=' you're using drugs.[/quote']

 

They either need major tweaks, major luck or a major injury bug to hit NY. The dichotomy between the two teams is much greater than the standings indicated, especially when you consider how poorly NY started vs Boston.

[Dipre]

They either need major tweaks' date=' major luck or a major injury bug to hit NY. The dichotomy between the two teams is much greater than the standings indicated, especially when you consider how poorly NY started vs Boston.[/quote']

 

This is ********.

 

What the Sox need is to sign a good LF and health.

 

How about that?

[example1]

They either need major tweaks' date=' major luck or a major injury bug to hit NY. The dichotomy between the two teams is much greater than the standings indicated, especially when you consider how poorly NY started vs Boston.[/quote']

 

You're wrong.

 

The additions of an in-shape Dice-K, a full season of Buchholz (instead of Smoltz/Penny), and a full season of Victor Martinez instead of Pedroia is worth at lesat 4-5 more wins, IMO. That doesn't mean passing the Yankees, but it also doesn't mean that "major tweaks, major luck, or major injuries" are the only way it can work.

 

I would say that the Yankees NOT having major injuries would be, in and of itself, major luck for the Yankees. If the Yankees lost A-Rod, Teixeira, Rivera, Jeter, or CC they would be a considerably more challenged team.

 

Furthermore, I simply wouldn't be too confident with AJ Burnett, Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain moving forward, given how poorly they have looked. Joba was bad this year, AJ inconsistent. That's a pretty shallow staff. I assume they'll add Lackey or someone else this year, but still, your head is getting too big for itself here Jacko.

[Dipre]

You're wrong.

 

The additions of an in-shape Dice-K, a full season of Buchholz (instead of Smoltz/Penny), and a full season of Victor Martinez instead of 1)Varisuck is worth at lesat 4-5 more wins, IMO. That doesn't mean passing the Yankees, but it also doesn't mean that "major tweaks, major luck, or major injuries" are the only way it can work.

 

I would say that the Yankees NOT having major injuries would be, in and of itself, major luck for the Yankees. If the Yankees lost A-Rod, Teixeira, Rivera, Jeter, or CC they would be a considerably more challenged team.

 

Furthermore, I simply wouldn't be too confident with AJ Burnett, Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain moving forward, given how poorly they have looked. Joba was bad this year, AJ inconsistent. That's a pretty shallow staff. I assume they'll add Lackey or someone else this year, but still, 2)your head is getting too big for itself here Jacko.

 

1) A fix.

 

2) Ain't that the truth?