Bay vs. Holliday

[TheKilo]

It'd be unlikely. You're overselling your point at "no way" though.

 

List some type A free agents who signed with their teams within the exclusive period. I'll wait.

[Dojji]

Lowell, Mike.

Rodriguez, Alex

[TheKilo]

Lowell, Mike.

Rodriguez, Alex

 

Mike Lowell re-signed November 20, 2007. Past the 10 day exclusive period. He filed for free agency.

 

Alex Rodriguez re-signed November 15, 2007. Past the 10-day exclusive period.

[Dojji]

Even so, the groundwork for those deals was clearly laid during the exclusive peroid.

[Dipre]

Even so' date=' the groundwork for those deals was clearly laid during the exclusive peroid.[/quote']

 

So?

 

A deal isn't finalized until it's official.

 

Stop making s*** up to back up an argument with no merit, for the love of Jesus.

[TheKilo]

Stop moving the goalposts.

[Dojji]

Stop moving the goalposts.

 

A player doesn't make a multi-year commitment on a whim. If any FA were to sign within a week of the exclusive period, it'd be pretty good evidence the signing team had talked pretty fast during the time they had exclusive access to his ear

[example1]

The Red Sox are going to be as selective with Bay as he is about resigning with them. Again, they got Bay because they COULD, not because they really, really wanted to. I bet they would give Bay a B+ as an overall player, Holliday an A-, and Manny an A (salary and attitude aside).

 

If they have to pay Holliday close to Teixeira money (eventually touching 20m a year) I'd be okay with it, if the deal is short enough. He really has had great numbers. They are often disregaded because of COL, but he gets on base better, strikes out a hell of a lot less, and has a higher OPS. His .318 career AVG speaks to his ability to make contact and be aggressive at the plate, and those things all give him a minor (but significant) advantage over Bay. If you're buying the luxary car you want all the bells and whistles, not just most of them. Free Agency is the one chance the Sox have to get the players they want, not the generic version.

 

I agree with Kilo that there's a high risk of Boras dicking the Sox around, but not if they can get it to the point where there's an AAV on the table. If they can get there it is worth just sealing the deal and moving forward. Two years ago I would have hand picked Holliday as a replacement for Manny or Ortiz. Now he's available. There's too many reasons not to just fork out the money and do it.

[BSN07]

Trevor Hoffman, just playing devil's advocate:D

 

I agree with Dipre and Kilo on this one.

 

exp1 makes a great poinst about Holliday vs Bay that I am in agreement with. I remember when I first joined that one of my first "wishlist" type of post was a trade for Matt Holliday. Might have been around the same time as the Helton rumors. And like exp1 said, he is available. I think the Sox really make a strong push for him.

 

I think they offered Bay deals that they ultimately knew he would reject. And if he didn't they would be getting him on the cheap so to speak, so it was ok. It's like they were prepping their plan B in case plan A(Holliday) blows up in their faces.

[Dojji]

This is foolishness. Holliday is a great left fielder no doubt, and would be a tremendous asset to the team, but you guys are seriously selling out to the greener grass on the other side of the hill.

 

Jason Bay is a consistent 30+ HR hitter year in, year out. He and Holliday have the same career high in HR's, but Bay has the second, fourth, and fifth most HR's in a season between them and has crossed the 30 HR threshhold two more times than Holliday has in a career track that has been as close to comparable as you're likely to get with two ballplayers.

 

Holliday is a good OPS hitter, but does not have that kind of raw power on his resume. Other than the truly awesome year in 2007, he's a slightly better offensive version of Kevin Youkilis, and I'm not sure what kind of "true #4 hitter" that makes him. (actually over the last 2 years I'd give the edge to Youkilis)

 

Also, this year Jason Bay had a slightly higher OPS than Holliday, in a tougher division. You lose practically nothing if you "settle" for Bay over Holliday.

 

I understand the sexiness of Holliday's batting average and his slightly higher OBP does make a difference, but what we're looking for is specifically a home run hitter. Both Bay and Holliday would serve more than adequately next year if called upon to do so and there are great arguments to go for either guy. Bay does NOT take a back seat to Holliday. He just has a different skillset.

 

Finally I'd like to point out that while Bay hit .267 this year he's a career .280 hitter. He's not THAT vulnerable. Even with that, he hit for more raw power than Holliday and got on base about as much.

 

I can't imagine that the team has done anything like stiffed or disrespected Bay when there's every possibility that he becomes the best remaining option on the market at some point in the offseason. If they did, it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.

[Dipre]

This is foolishness. Holliday is a great left fielder no doubt, and would be a tremendous asset to the team, but you guys are seriously selling out to the greener grass on the other side of the hill.

 

Jason Bay is a consistent 30+ HR hitter year in, year out. He and Holliday have the same career high in HR's, but Bay has the second, fourth, and fifth most HR's in a season between them and has crossed the 30 HR threshhold two more times than Holliday has in a career track that has been as close to comparable as you're likely to get with two ballplayers.

 

Holliday is a good OPS hitter, but does not have that kind of raw power on his resume. Other than the truly awesome year in 2007, he's a slightly better offensive version of Kevin Youkilis, and I'm not sure what kind of "true #4 hitter" that makes him. (actually over the last 2 years I'd give the edge to Youkilis)

 

Also, this year Jason Bay had a slightly higher OPS than Holliday, in a tougher division. You lose practically nothing if you "settle" for Bay over Holliday.

 

I understand the sexiness of Holliday's batting average and his slightly higher OBP does make a difference, but what we're looking for is specifically a home run hitter. Both Bay and Holliday would serve more than adequately next year if called upon to do so and there are great arguments to go for either guy. Bay does NOT take a back seat to Holliday. He just has a different skillset.

 

Finally I'd like to point out that while Bay hit .267 this year he's a career .280 hitter. He's not THAT vulnerable. Even with that, he hit for more raw power than Holliday and got on base about as much.

 

I can't imagine that the team has done anything like stiffed or disrespected Bay when there's every possibility that he becomes the best remaining option on the market at some point in the offseason. If they did, it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.

 

162 K's.

 

Not that vulnerable my ass.

 

And let's not mention his defense in left please.

[Dojji]

It's a rare power hitter that doesn't strike out a lot. Comes with the swing. Even Holliday struck out 100 times. If a guy's getting on base well and hitting for power, I tend to ignore strikeouts.

[Dipre]

It's a rare power hitter that doesn't strike out a lot. Comes with the swing. Even Holliday struck out 100 times. If a guy's getting on base well and hitting for power' date=' [b']I tend to ignore strikeouts.[/b]

 

Of course you do.

 

It helps your argument.

 

And just for the record, there is an enormous difference between 162 and 101 strikeouts.

 

Just sayin'

[Dojji]

Of course you do.

 

It helps your argument.

 

And just for the record, there is an enormous difference between 162 and 101 strikeouts.

 

Just sayin'

 

Couse. Just like there's an enormous difference between 36 HR's and 24.

 

Holliday would not lead this team in home runs.

 

He would not be second on this team in home runs.

 

He might not even be third.

 

Just. Sayin'.

[Dipre]

Couse. Just like there's an enormous difference between 36 HR's and 24.

 

Holliday would not lead this team in home runs.

 

He would not be second on this team in home runs.

 

He might not even be third.

 

Just. Sayin'.

 

O Rly?

 

As usual, you ignore obvious factors like his time in Oakland to fuel your baseless arguments.

 

Typical.

[Dojji]

O Rly?

 

As usual, you ignore obvious factors like his time in Oakland to fuel your baseless arguments.

 

Typical.

 

You're using Holliday's mediocre performance in his only exposure to the American League to DEFEND him? Oy.

 

Holliday performed at exactly the same level in 2008 -- at Coors' Field. I could throw your barb right back at you.

 

Holliday's banking almost entirely on his 2007 campaign while Bay is a model of consistency. Given the choice, I'd take the one more likely to repeat his best numbers. Right now, that's Bay.

[Dipre]

You're using Holliday's mediocre performance in his only exposure to the American League to DEFEND him? Oy.

 

Holliday performed at exactly the same level in 2008 -- at Coors' Field. I could throw your barb right back at you.

 

Holliday's banking almost entirely on his 2007 campaign while Bay is a model of consistency. Given the choice, I'd take the one more likely to repeat his best numbers. Right now, that's Bay.

 

Sure because the hitters' paradise and legendary lineup that he had in Oakland don't justify any sort of offensive drop-off.

 

We're going by Doiji logic right?

[Dojji]

Sure because the hitters' paradise and legendary lineup that he had in Oakland don't justify any sort of offensive drop-off.

 

Holliday. Didn't. Drop. Off.

 

His 2009 numbers mirror his 2008 numbers, and he hit at Coors in 2008.

 

You're wanting to sign this guy because of 1 good year in Colorado and half a year in St. Louis.

 

Please stop making crap up.

[Dipre]

Holliday. Didn't. Drop. Off.

 

His 2009 numbers mirror his 2008 numbers, and he hit at Coors in 2008.

 

You're wanting to sign this guy because of 1 good year in Colorado and half a year in St. Louis.

 

Please stop making crap up.

 

One good year in Colorado?

 

My IQ just dropped by 20 points.

 

Can you be any more of an idiot?

 

Matt Holliday's topped a .900 OPS in 4 of his 6 seasons in MLB.

 

The only one making s*** up is you.

[Dojji]

One good year in Colorado?

 

My IQ just dropped by 20 points.

 

Can you be any more of an idiot?

 

Matt Holliday's topped a .900 OPS in 4 of his 6 seasons in MLB.

 

The only one making s*** up is you.

 

OPS is not everything. We have plenty of OPS on this roster with or without Holliday, and Holliday and Bay are close enough to equal on the OPS front over the last 2 years. Slight advantage Holliday, but it's not a huge difference.

 

I know I'm gonna sound like one of those uberconservative schmucks we like to laugh at but what we really need right now is a home run hitter to stick in the middle of the order. I think you and I both agree on that, that's why you want Gonzalez despite him only really having the one great OPS year himself (Gonzalez' career OPS is .869. Good, but not exactly tremendous)

 

Holliday is good for mid 20's HR's each of the last 2 years. Other than his one 36 HR year in 2007 he's pretty much been Kevin Youkilis. That's pretty danged good, but it isn't as good as Bay in the one area we really need from them. And he's been up and down in his career in total HR's despite mostly playing at Coors. Meanwhile Bay's been good for 30+ HR's a year with one exception despite changing leagues and playing in a far tougher division. That's why I call him a model of consistency and why I'd really prefer we get him. You have a better idea exactly what you're getting with Bay.

[Dipre]

OPS is not everything. We have plenty of OPS on this roster with or without Holliday, and Holliday and Bay are close enough to equal on the OPS front over the last 2 years. Slight advantage Holliday, but it's not a huge difference.

 

I know I'm gonna sound like one of those uberconservative schmucks we like to laugh at but what we really need right now is a home run hitter to stick in the middle of the order. I think you and I both agree on that, that's why you want Gonzalez despite him only really having the one great OPS year himself (Gonzalez' career OPS is .869. Good, but not exactly tremendous)

 

Holliday is good for mid 20's HR's each of the last 2 years. Other than his one 36 HR year in 2007 he's pretty much been Kevin Youkilis. That's pretty danged good, but it isn't as good as Bay in the one area we really need from them. And he's been up and down in his career in total HR's despite mostly playing at Coors. Meanwhile Bay's been good for 30+ HR's a year with one exception despite changing leagues and playing in a far tougher division. That's why I call him a model of consistency and why I'd really prefer we get him. You have a better idea exactly what you're getting with Bay.

 

Now OPS is not everything?

 

And now Holliday's pretty much "Kevin Youkilis"?

 

Jesus Christ.

[Dojji]

Yeah, sorry, a gaffe on my part. But just because Youkilis has been better than Holliday over the last 2 years is no reason not to get him, right?

 

I should clarify: I'm aware of the difference in OPS (although they're virtually tied this year) I just think Bay's skillset is more important to us than Holliday's would be, OPS notwithstanding.

[Dipre]

Yeah, sorry, a gaffe on my part. But just because Youkilis has been better than Holliday over the last 2 years is no reason not to get him, right?

 

I should clarify: I'm aware of the difference in OPS (although they're virtually tied this year) I just think Bay's skillset is more important to us than Holliday's would be, OPS notwithstanding.

 

Youkilis has been better than Bay the last 2 years as well, is that a reason not to get him either?

[Dojji]

Youkilis has been better than Bay the last 2 years as well' date=' is that a reason not to get him either?[/quote']

 

Depends on what you want him for. I mean, Youkilis has even homered more than Holliday each of the last 2 seasons. Bay at least has an edge on Youks in HR's and RBI.

 

What it comes down to is unless Holliday recaptures a better form than we've seen over the last couple seasons from him, he won't be the bigtime offensive leader on this team that people think he is or that the team needs him to be, or that we're paying him to be for that matter. He'll be one more high-OPS, very disciplined cog in the lineup, and that's incredibly valuable, but he won't stand out all that much in this lineup.

 

Unless Fenway brings his power to the fore (and it very well might) the only category he'd lead the team in is the semi-useless batting average. And he'd have plenty of competition even there from Pedroia.

[Dipre]

Depends on what you want him for. I mean, Youkilis has even homered more than Holliday each of the last 2 seasons. Bay at least has an edge on Youks in HR's and RBI.

 

What it comes down to is unless Holliday recaptures a better form than we've seen over the last couple seasons from him, he won't be the bigtime offensive leader on this team that people think he is or that the team needs him to be, or that we're paying him to be for that matter.

 

Unless Fenway brings his power to the fore (and it very well might) the only category he'd lead the team in is the semi-useless batting average. And he'd have plenty of competition even there from Pedroia.

 

RBI. Check.

 

Home runs as a measure of offensive worth.Check.

 

Completely ignoring the fact that Holliday's the tougher out. Check.

 

Completely ignoring the fact that Holliday's a more complete offensive threat. Check.

 

Completely ignoring the fact that Holliday can actually play defense. Check.

 

Yup, seems like a Doiji argument to me.

[Dojji]

Home runs as a measure of offensive worth.Check.

 

He's a middle of the order hitter. HR's matter. Especially when it's the one major difference between the two players.

 

Completely ignoring the fact that Holliday's the tougher out. Check.

 

By .010. That's maybe 5-6 outs a year. If it was the difference between .320 and .330 I'd be more worried. The diference between .384 and .394 is not big enough to make a fuss over.

 

Completely ignoring the fact that Holliday's a more complete offensive threat. Check.

 

Depends on how you define a complete offensive threat. Bay was the better base-stealer, OBP is about equal, and Bay hit for somewhat more power.

 

Completely ignoring the fact that Holliday can actually play defense. Check.

 

We aren't signing either of these guys for their gloves. This is left field we're talking about. Defense is at most a tiebreaker, unless one of the two are ridiculously bad.

 

Last year Holliday was a little above average, and Bay a little below average, but both were at least adequate left fielders so the argument isn't particularly compelling compared to a discussion of their offensive abilities.

[Dipre]

By .010. That's maybe 5-6 outs a year. Not big enough to make a fuss over.

 

Sure, if it fits your argument.

 

Depends on how you define a complete offensive threat. Bay was the better base-stealer, OBP is about equal, and Bay hit for somewhat more power.

 

Bay career OPS: .896

 

Holliday career OPS: .933.

 

Substantial difference if you ask me.

 

And for the record, Holliday has a better career OBP (.387 to .376) and Slugging (.545 to .519) than Bay, just to break it down for you and destroy any nitpicking attempt.

 

But hey, the numbers lie, Bay "hits for somewhat more power".

 

We aren't signing either of these guys for their gloves. This is left field we're talking about. Defense is at most a tiebreaker, unless one of the two are ridiculously bad.

 

Last year Holliday was a little above average, and Bay a little below average, but both were at least adequate left fielders so the argument isn't particularly compelling compared to a discussion of their offensive abilities.

 

Oh?

 

So now defense doesn't matter?

 

We're not signing either of these guys for their glove?

 

That's quite the weak argument you got going there, sport.

[example1]

at work... can't... reply.... must... work....

 

Dipre is.... right... big... difference... between... the two...

 

gasp... choke... will reply later....

[redsoxrules]

I'd prefer Holliday over Bay

[Dojji]

Sure, if it fits your argument.

 

 

 

Bay career OPS: .896

 

Holliday career OPS: .933.

 

Substantial difference if you ask me.

 

.037 OPS is substantial? It's there, I haven't denied it, but that difference barely clears the margin of performance either one would have in a given year.

 

And for the record, Holliday has a better career OBP (.387 to .376) and Slugging (.545 to .519) than Bay, just to break it down for you and destroy any nitpicking attempt.

 

Mostly fuelled by Matt Holliday's 2007 season in which he hit .340 (and achieved a whopping .380 BABIP). Over the last two seasons Bay has had the advantage.

 

Holliday has the best offensive season between the two. Bay has the second, fourth, and fifth, and has performed at a consistently good level throughout his career, especially if you bear in mind that Bat's injury-riddled 2007 performance drags his numbers down as much as Holliday's 2007 performance with that ridiculous BABIP inflates his.

 

 

But hey, the numbers lie, Bay "hits for somewhat more power".

 

I said over the last two years, dolt.

 

Homers do matter, and other than 2007 Bay has hit more of them every year than Holliday has.

 

Sure, Holliday hits enough extra singles to inflate his SLG past Bay's but Bay has superior isolated power. (.240 to Holliday's .227) If you want a pure power hitter, the better power hitter of the two is still Jason Bay.

 

Oh?

 

So now defense doesn't matter?

 

We're not signing either of these guys for their glove?

 

That's quite the weak argument you got going there, sport.

 

Did you hear me say defense didn't matter?

 

If you'll look back, I said that unless one of the two was awful, defense was at most a secondary issue. We're going after these players because they're offensive players. Defense is an extra, a tiebreaker, the crackers with the soup, whatever "secondary but potentially useful attribute) analog you prefer.