How Should Beckett's Workload be Handled Down the Stretch?

[a700hitter]

I think he is a little fatigued at this stage accounting for his poor outings and unusual number of HR balls left up in the zone. Ideally, it would probably be most beneficial to him to skip one of his next 2 starts. However, the wild card race is still tight, and they probably can't afford to do that. There are a couple of off days coming up. If they stay in rotation, he could get an extra days rest.

[Dojji]

Can they afford to let him go out there and keep pitching poorly either?

 

take the hit and trust the middle of your rotation to get something done. If you get into trouble, a better-rested Beckett will be there to help pitch you out of it later on.

[ORS]

I don't think this is a significant problem. His peripherals are actually quite good, but his mistakes are all getting hammered. This is similar to what happened to Lester to start the year. Lester didn't do much different, same peripherals, and his HR rate came back down to normal. The same should occur for Beckett. Just let the anomaly play itself out.

[BSN07]

I think they should skip 1 start. Give him a good rest. Hopefully by doing this the quality of his remaining starts will be better.

 

But ORS makes a valid point to just letting him work it out on the mound too.

[a700hitter]

I don't think this is a significant problem. His peripherals are actually quite good' date=' but his mistakes are all getting hammered. This is similar to what happened to Lester to start the year. Lester didn't do much different, same peripherals, and his HR rate came back down to normal. The same should occur for Beckett. Just let the anomaly play itself out.[/quote']Lester's problem was at the beginning of the season, so maybe he just needed to get everything in sync. Being that Beckett's problem is coming at the end of the season, you don't think fatigue could be a contributing factor. One of the first signs of fatigue in a pitcher is that he starts to miss location.

[a700hitter]

I wanted to add a poll to this thread, but I couldn't do it from my blackberry. Is there a way to add it now? I am curious to see how people will vote.

[ORS]

Lester's problem was at the beginning of the season' date=' so maybe he just needed to get everything in sync. Being that Beckett's problem is coming at the end of the season, you don't think fatigue could be a contributing factor. One of the first signs of fatigue in a pitcher is that he starts to miss location.[/quote']

Two games:

 

8/7/2009 vs. NY: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K

 

http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/location.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2009/month_08/day_07/gid_2009_08_07_bosmlb_nyamlb_1//pbp/pitchers/277417.xml&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3

 

8/23/2009 vs. NY: 8 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 5 HR, 0 BB, 5 K

 

http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/location.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2009/month_08/day_23/gid_2009_08_23_nyamlb_bosmlb_1//pbp/pitchers/277417.xml&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3

 

Can you point to signs of a control issue between one start and the other? I can't. Sometimes, you get away with mistakes. Sometimes, you don't. I think that's just baseball.

[Paradisecity]

 

Can you point to signs of a control issue between one start and the other? I can't. Sometimes, you get away with mistakes. Sometimes, you don't. I think that's just baseball.

 

I have to agree with this. I thought Beckett pitched ok in the yankee slaughter- they just had a gameplan for attacking him and executed perfectly. Its a matter of adjusting to eliminate the trends.

 

He didnt look bad yesterday, either.

[Dojji]

Just get him to the playoffs, healthy, and let him do his thing.

[a700hitter]

Two games:

 

8/7/2009 vs. NY: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K

 

http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/location.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2009/month_08/day_07/gid_2009_08_07_bosmlb_nyamlb_1//pbp/pitchers/277417.xml&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3

 

8/23/2009 vs. NY: 8 IP, 9 H, 8 R, 5 HR, 0 BB, 5 K

 

http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/location.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2009/month_08/day_23/gid_2009_08_23_nyamlb_bosmlb_1//pbp/pitchers/277417.xml&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3

 

Can you point to signs of a control issue between one start and the other? I can't. Sometimes, you get away with mistakes. Sometimes, you don't. I think that's just baseball.

These plot points show where the pitch went. They don't show the intended target of each pitch. If a batter is looking outside, and Beckett tries to bust him in side, but leaves the pitch 3" over the outside portion of the plate he's missed his location badly but the plot point will look like a good pitch over the outside corner.

 

Beckett and the Coaching staff have been explaining this stretch as a mechanical problem causing him to leave certain pitches high in the zone. I think that you have to consider that fatigue could be a contributing factor. Schilling used to say that the difference between winning and losing came down to executing a half dozen pitches. The plot graph doesn't show which of those pitches were the critical ones.

[TedWilliams101]

I'm not sure how accurate this is, but i watched a breakdown of Lester's bad start and they pointed to the fact that Lefties were crushing him, but he still pretty much dominated righties. Their explanation was that he wasn't getting his pitches inside on Lefties. He explained that since they weren't really looking inside, Lester's slider down and away became less effective and the hitters (lefties) were able to sit on FB over the plate. Once he regained his ability to locate over the inner half against lefties, he began to dominate them again and the bad stretch was over.

 

I haven't look at very detailed stats of his bad start, but I do remember that it was primarily lefties that were giving him the problem early on.

[ORS]

These plot points show where the pitch went. They don't show the intended target of each pitch. If a batter is looking outside, and Beckett tries to bust him in side, but leaves the pitch 3" over the outside portion of the plate he's missed his location badly but the plot point will look like a good pitch over the outside corner.

 

Beckett and the Coaching staff have been explaining this stretch as a mechanical problem causing him to leave certain pitches high in the zone. I think that you have to consider that fatigue could be a contributing factor. Schilling used to say that the difference between winning and losing came down to executing a half dozen pitches. The plot graph doesn't show which of those pitches were the critical ones.

It also doesn't show if his target is inside with a FB, he hits his target, and the batter just happens to be looking for an inside FB that he hammers. Losing out on the guessing game won't show up in the pitch charts, but it's a reality of the game. Over time, the quality of a pitcher's stuff (velocity, movement, deception) will determine how often he gets hurt when he loses out in the guessing game, or how often he gets away with a mistake. Beckett looks fine to the eye, the data on his stuff doesn't suggest any degradation of quality, and he's demonstrating the same levels of dominance (K/9, BB/9) he was during his good stretch this year. I don't think there is a problem.

[a700hitter]

It also doesn't show if his target is inside with a FB' date=' he hits his target, and the batter just happens to be looking for an inside FB that he hammers. Losing out on the guessing game won't show up in the pitch charts, but it's a reality of the game. Over time, the quality of a pitcher's stuff (velocity, movement, deception) will determine how often he gets hurt when he loses out in the guessing game, or how often he gets away with a mistake. Beckett looks fine to the eye, the data on his stuff doesn't suggest any degradation of quality, and he's demonstrating the same levels of dominance (K/9, BB/9) he was during his good stretch this year. I don't think there is a problem.[/quote']

The fact that he has been getting hurt several times a game on a regular basis when this wasn't happening before suggests to me that something else is at work other than random good swings on mistakes when batters were consistently not making those swings on similar mistakes earlier in the year.

[ORS]

Or, it suggests that that quality of his stuff is somewhere in the middle of his bad stretch and his good stretch.

[a700hitter]

Or' date=' it suggests that that quality of his stuff is somewhere in the middle of his bad stretch and his good stretch.[/quote']Does it suggest which direction he is going-- to the bad stuff or good stuff?

[Keeper]

Over the course of season most pitchers go into funks. Beckett will be fine. It's cyclical. Buehrle was struggling big time for awhile. He's turned it around. I don't think the Sox can afford to skip a start for Beckett. If they had a bigger lead in the WC, then it wouldn't be a terrible idea. As it is, though, it looks like it's going to be a tight race to the finish line. You need your horse down the stretch.

[a700hitter]

Over the course of season most pitchers go into funks. Beckett will be fine. It's cyclical. Buehrle was struggling big time for awhile. He's turned it around. I don't think the Sox can afford to skip a start for Beckett. If they had a bigger lead in the WC' date=' then it wouldn't be a terrible idea. As it is, though, it looks like it's going to be a tight race to the finish line. You need your horse down the stretch.[/quote']

At 188 innings, he's on pace for 224 innings which blows away his 2006 season-high of 204. I'm the first one to say that todays players are coddled too much, but I think they need to consider what he'll have left in the tank when the regular season comes to a close.

[ORS]

Does it suggest which direction he is going-- to the bad stuff or good stuff?

I don't think so. He was great. He was awful. This last time out, he was in the middle. Giving up 3 ER in 7 IP is a 3.86 ERA. That's about how good he is, IMO.

[a700hitter]

I don't think so. He was great. He was awful. This last time out' date=' he was in the middle. Giving up 3 ER in 7 IP is a 3.86 ERA. That's about how good he is, IMO.[/quote']We need him to be better. We need 2007 shutdown Beckett to advance to and win the World Series.

[BSN07]

Over the course of season most pitchers go into funks. Beckett will be fine. It's cyclical. Buehrle was struggling big time for awhile. He's turned it around. I don't think the Sox can afford to skip a start for Beckett. If they had a bigger lead in the WC' date=' then it wouldn't be a terrible idea. As it is, though, it looks like it's going to be a tight race to the finish line. You need your horse down the stretch.[/quote']

 

I get where your coming from. The WC is close, and it would be a risky move. Maybe they could push him back and get him a week off or 8 days or something. Maybe it would help refresh him.

 

Right now from what i personaly see when watching him pitch is his FB is down around 93 MPH, topping at 95 MPH on occasion. I know that it's still hard, but it seems more hittable. His mistakes are ending up in the bleachers. When he's 95-97MPH he gets away with a lot more.

 

It was the same last post season when he was injured. He could only hit 93 MPH or so and what much more hittable.

 

If a few extra days of get him back in top FB form then they should do it. Maybe put him on a lower pitch count if they won't skip or push his start back.:dunno:

[ORS]

We need him to be better. We need 2007 shutdown Beckett to advance to and win the World Series.

If this is your expectation, expect to be disappointed. That said, if he pitches that well and the BP does it's job, then they should win. If they lose, that's on the offense, not the pitching.