Giants sign Penny to help in playoff race

[Christian Snyder]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10005692/Sources:-Giants-sign-Penny-to-help-in-playoff-race?MSNToolbar130 He will probably become the best pitcher in MLB for the Giants (sarcasm).

[Cocos Disciples]

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10005692/Sources:-Giants-sign-Penny-to-help-in-playoff-race?MSNToolbar130 He will probably become the best pitcher in MLB for the Giants (sarcasm).

 

You're really unfamiliar with the Giants, right?

[CrespoBlows]

The title is an oxymoron.

 

As for how it rates, is Martinez really worse than Penny?

[Christian Snyder]

Sorry, about the title....My 12 year old brain couldn't think of a better title for some reason? I have attempted to fix it....

[CrespoBlows]

Sotty' date=' about the title....My 12 year old brain couldn't think of a better title for some reason?;oops: I have attempted to fix it....[/quote']

 

No, I'm just saying that Brad Penny and help in playoff race don't belong in the same sentence.

[ms_sox]

Oops, didn't see this before posting in the Penny Released thread.

 

I'd say it wasn't a very good decision, but am trying to remind myself that sometimes seemingly stupid decisions actually work out.

[a700hitter]

I was hoping that the Yankees would sign him.

[BSN07]

I bet he does fairly well out in the NL West.

[ms_sox]

Friend said the amount Giants have to pay is about 100 grand ... is that right? Is that all he had left on his 5million contract? If so, I guess he was really cheap, so even if it doesn't turn out that well, at least it was...well, cheap.

 

Also, I don't get why the NL should be better for pitchers...besides the fact starters have to bat, there's no logical difference. Just luck of streak timing and/or team & stadium dynamics that can seem to change things, me thinks. That and whatever different training/confidence the player does, of course.

[Christian Snyder]

No' date=' I'm just saying that Brad Penny and help in playoff race don't belong in the same sentence.[/quote']Okay... I understand...

 

I was hoping that the Yankees would sign him.

I was hoping that also.

[Spudboy]

Friend said the amount Giants have to pay is about 100 grand ... is that right? Is that all he had left on his 5million contract? If so, I guess he was really cheap, so even if it doesn't turn out that well, at least it was...well, cheap.

 

Also, I don't get why the NL should be better for pitchers...besides the fact starters have to bat, there's no logical difference. Just luck of streak timing and/or team & stadium dynamics that can seem to change things, me thinks. That and whatever different training/confidence the player does, of course.

 

The Sox are obligated to pay the balance of Penny's contract minus the prorated Veteran Minimum (which the Giants pay).

 

One obvious difference in the NL is there is no DH. A pitcher faces another pitcher unless the opposing pitcher is pinch hit for.

[ms_sox]

The Sox are obligated to pay the balance of Penny's contract minus the prorated Veteran Minimum (which the Giants pay).

 

One obvious difference in the NL is there is no DH. A pitcher faces another pitcher unless the opposing pitcher is pinch hit for.

I just don't see how overall, that alters the pitcher's ability to gain W's all that much. It's just 1 batter. Most teams often seem to have an 'automatic out' or two - or at least a poor batter - in their lineup somewhere, despite all the constant trading.

[Spudboy]

What can I say?

 

Take a productive Ortiz, Lowell, V Mart, or Youk out of the line-up and substitute a pitcher hitting .130-160 and add that to your other guy that hits for s*** and maybe it is easier to see how a pitcher is less challenged in the NL.

[ms_sox]

What can I say?

 

Take a productive Ortiz, Lowell, V Mart, or Youk out of the line-up and substitute a pitcher hitting .130-160 and add that to your other guy that hits for s*** and maybe it is easier to see how a pitcher is less challenged in the NL.

No, I understand that point of view.

 

You're missing my point of view that EVERY team usually has at least one or two people who hit for s***...the NL just replaces one of theirs with the pitcher instead of, say, the catcher (current Tek, haha) or a SS or an OF.

 

There have been pitchers who can hit/bunt at least as well as (current) Tek in terms of getting on base perhaps, tho I know that's probably pretty rare, and it's sure not Penny, haha.

 

Also, in terms of a pitcher's win/loss record, even if there is a small advantage because a batting pitcher=less runs scored, the other team they're playing will have the same advantage, right, so it could balance out and thus the pitcher's W/L record would not improve substantially.

 

Lastly, in the NL, since they have to bat, pitchers are more exposed, maybe, to injuries and fatigue.

 

Still feels to me that in terms of a pitchers W/L record that in the long run it would all kinda balance out.

[ORS]

Well, to start, W/L performance is a really poor gauge of how good a pitcher is. Good pitchers on bad teams rarely are league leaders in W/L performance regardless of which league it is. Stats like ERA and WHIP (walks + hits per inning pitched) tend to tell you more about how good a pitcher is in his given league. Where the DH has an impact is on those stats, so it's tough to compare an NL pitcher to an AL pitcher via ERA and WHIP without a league adjustment.

 

Early in the offseason, someone was suggesting the league adjustment was very large. I did a quick rudimentary look at league scoring averages and the RC (runs created) by the DH in the AL and hitting pitchers and pinch hitters in the NL. The difference in league scoring average was about 0.5 runs a game. The difference in the RC between the DH and hitting pitchers + pinch hitters was about 0.5 runs. In other words, the scoring difference appears to solely based on the rules differences.

[rhet]

ERA, H/IP, K/IP, WHIP, IP, HR

in that order are the things I look at before W/L record. Although W/L record is important - since the goal is to win games - it is dependent on a team's offense to score, which is something the pitcher has no control over.

[BoSox21]

BABIP and ERA+ aren't bad ones to look at first either

[Dipre]

GO/AO, HR/9, BB/9, K/9 and every other pitching stat must be looked at before wins.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Wins shouldn't be looked at period.

 

If you can allow 8 runs and get a win, and allow 1 run and get a loss, then the stat in question is absolute trash.

[Dipre]

Wins shouldn't be looked at period.

 

If you can allow 8 runs and get a win, and allow 1 run and get a loss, then the stat in question is absolute trash.

 

Actually you can allow 0 earned runs and get a loss.

 

Ask Daniel Cabrera.

[BoSox21]

For example, Matt Cain is 42-47 over his career with an ERA of 3.47

[rhet]

Wins shouldn't be looked at period.

 

If you can allow 8 runs and get a win, and allow 1 run and get a loss, then the stat in question is absolute trash.

 

No doubt a win accumulation will include outliers like that. Other measures are certainly more important in determining how effective a pitcher is. But I still think it's valuable to see how many wins and losses a pitcher has.

[rhet]

Actually you can allow 0 earned runs and get a loss.

 

Ask Daniel Cabrera.

 

 

Pitchers who consistently have a lot of unearned runs are pitchers who have a problem pitching with men on base. Witness Daniel Cabrera.

[BoSox21]

But I still think it's valuable to see how many wins and losses a pitcher has.

 

How is it important at all? A statistic's value is based entirely on the other statistics that are available to measure a pitcher's effectiveness. There are so many variables that factor into wins and losses and pretty much a more effective statistic is available to eliminate all of those variables.

[rhet]

How is it important at all? A statistic's value is based entirely on the other statistics that are available to measure a pitcher's effectiveness. There are so many variables that factor into wins and losses and pretty much a more effective statistic is available to eliminate all of those variables.

 

Don't mistake me, I think it's a secondary stat. However, given a large enough sample, win accumulation is a valid measure of a pitcher's effectiveness. While dependencies on a team's run scoring ability and bullpen affect win total in a given period, over a longer period of time, the relative effect among all pitchers tends to even out. It is no surprise that great pitchers in history tend to have more wins than mediocre pitchers.

[ms_sox]

Argh if only trying to comprehend stats/tech/math analysis didn't give me migraines.

 

I have no serious arguments w/what most of you are saying re: other stuff besides W/L meaning more re: pitchers skill, since I wouldn't disagree. I think the issue is that you're misunderstanding a little what I was originally trying to say.

 

Example:

"Smoltz sucks, he can't get wins!"

Smoltz goes back the NL, has a great start or two.

 

"Penny sucks, he can't get wins!"

...let's assume he also does better his first few starts in the NL, maybe with a couple nice low-score wins.

 

Average yoo-hoo responses are like this: "It's because he's in the pansy NL/couldn't hack it in AL, hahaha!"

 

...my point is that I disagree with that attitude. It's not about whether the NL or AL does better in interleague teamplay because of rule differences that lead to different gameplay strategies (say, more smallball vs huge sluggers). It's that a pitcher's overall record/ability ought to remain relatively equal no matter which league they're in. Maybe slightly better stats or W/L ratio in the AL, but a pitcher who does terrible for an AL team for 3 months...I don't believe that's just because "NL is easier."

[Dipre]

Argh if only trying to comprehend stats/tech/math analysis didn't give me migraines.

 

I have no serious arguments w/what most of you are saying re: other stuff besides W/L meaning more re: pitchers skill, since I wouldn't disagree. I think the issue is that you're misunderstanding a little what I was originally trying to say.

 

Example:

"Smoltz sucks, he can't get wins!"

Smoltz goes back the NL, has a great start or two.

 

"Penny sucks, he can't get wins!"

...let's assume he also does better his first few starts in the NL, maybe with a couple nice low-score wins.

 

Average yoo-hoo responses are like this: "It's because he's in the pansy NL/couldn't hack it in AL, hahaha!"

 

...my point is that I disagree with that attitude. It's not about whether the NL or AL does better in interleague teamplay because of rule differences. It's that a pitcher's overall record/ability ought to remain relatively equal no matter which league they're in. Maybe slightly better stats or W/L ratio in the AL, but a pitcher who does terrible for an AL team for 3 months...I don't believe that's just because "NL is easier."

 

Then you're wrong.

 

Specially if you move to the weakest-hitting division in baseball.

[ms_sox]

If there are tables of stats of a large sample size of pitchers who have, say, pitched 3+ years for one league then 3+ years for another, and the tables show a significant change in the pitchers stats (including their W/L) then I'll reconsider.

 

By significant I mean very much so...not just a few tenths. Minor differences can easily be attributed to things like home ballpark, team psychology factors, aging, and so on.

 

Edit: I'd assume such tables are probably rare/hard to produce since most teams lose patience within a year or less and trade the pitcher away.

[Dipre]

If there are tables of stats of a large sample size of pitchers who have' date=' say, pitched 3+ years for one league then 3+ years for another, and the tables show a [b']significant[/b] change in the pitchers stats (including their W/L) then I'll reconsider.

 

By significant I mean very much so...not just a few tenths. Minor differences can easily be attributed to things like home ballpark, team psychology factors, aging, and so on.

 

Edit: I'd assume such tables are probably rare/hard to produce since most teams lose patience within a year or less and trade the pitcher away.

 

Hey lady:

 

A) W/L is a nearly worthless stat.

 

B ) You don't need a table, but check out these names:

 

Pedro Martinez.

 

Randy Johnsonn.

 

Derek Lowe.

[ms_sox]

A) W/L is a nearly worthless stat.

I believe I said I understood that the other stats were the main focus for determining a pitcher's skill...but I still find the W/L stat interesting, like rhet does.

 

I'll check those names later, but a sample size of 3 is nowhere near large enough for me to feel a determination of...odds? trends?...whateveryoucallit?...could be made. Have another dozen or two names for me to check out? I'm not being sarcastic there...if you have more names, I'd be interested in them too.