8/20 @ Toronto

[CrespoBlows]

Here we ago again with OBP. Look' date=' Nick Johnson has a higher career OBP than Drew. So don't start making ridiculous comparisons with Hall of Famers like McCovey and Matthews. [/quote']

 

Nick Johnson is a fine baseball player. Why is it ridiculous? Because it disproves your whiny rant about old school baseball? OPS is a measure of offensive value, although imperfect, because it places too much value on SLG%, it shows that JD Drew has been a very good hitter in his career.

 

 

Christ, the guy has made ONE all star team in 12 years!

 

What a great measure of value. Some really useless players make the all-star team, because the fans vote for the players, and players on bad teams have to be picked. All-Star awards?

 

The guy doesn't produce runs. Period. What else is there to say?

 

Ruben Sierra drove in 100 runs in 1993, but managed to put up a sub .300 OBP. Is he still a good baseball player?

[rhet]

SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

 

whats his career RISP? I f***ing bet you wont answer that one because you just point out the bad

 

I "f***ing" will answer any question asked of me if you ask it nicely.

 

His career avg with RISP is .045 lower than his career avg not with RISP. What does that tell you?

[CrespoBlows]

Moneyball is a dated publication. Even Bill James has softened his negative proclamations about clutch hitting.

 

Have you read it?

[redsoxrules]

I "f***ing" will answer any question asked of me if you ask it nicely.

 

His career avg with RISP is .045 lower than his career avg not with RISP. What does that tell you?

 

it tells me that this years 179 is SMALL SAMPLE and that he's usually much better

[CrespoBlows]

I "f***ing" will answer any question asked of me if you ask it nicely.

 

His career avg with RISP is .045 lower than his career avg not with RISP. What does that tell you?

 

umm..

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=drewj.01&year=Career&t=b#bases

 

It's .003 BA lower.

 

Drew RISP - .278/.408/.487/.895

Normal - .281/.390/.497/.887

 

Drew actually is better with RISP.

[redsoxrules]

umm..

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=drewj.01&year=Career&t=b#bases

 

It's .003 BA lower.

 

Nice how about that rhet?

[rhet]

Have you read it?

 

LOL of course!

 

As I said earlier, I've read several. You people ought to start out by reading Player Win Averages by E.G. Mills. It's another dated publication but has more credible statistical evidence than Moneyball.

[yankees228]

Off the top of my head' date=' Hawpe, Werth, Ethier, Justin Upton, Markakis, Pence, Ichiro, Abreu, Swisher, Choo, Cruz...[/quote']

 

Swisher has a relatively high, walk driven OBP, and is a poor defensive outfielder. I don't mind Swisher, but considering your complaints about Drew, I don't see how you could prefer Swisher.

[CrespoBlows]

LOL of course!

 

As I said earlier, I've read several. You people ought to start out by reading Player Win Averages by E.G. Mills. It's another dated publication but has more credible statistical evidence than Moneyball.

 

Read Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game Is Wrong.

[rhet]

Drew - career stats

 

RISP 2-out: .240

Not RISP 2-out: .287

Difference: .047

 

RISP: .278

Not RISP: .283

Difference: .005

 

Conclusion: he pees his pants more when there are two outs.

[schillingouttheks]

Conclusion: Batting average is an awful stat.

[rhet]

Swisher has a relatively high' date=' walk driven OBP, and is a poor defensive outfielder. I don't mind Swisher, but considering your complaints about Drew, I don't see how you could prefer Swisher.[/quote']

 

Swisher's no bargain, but at least he likes to play.

[Mr Crunchy]

How about 45 RBI and a .260 average a week away from September?

Those #s make Todd Walker look like Ryan Howard.

Sorry,I forgot that those stats are meaningless to the guys who read Moneyball.

When Billy Beane wins something rather than dedicating his services to the elderly I'll buy the book.

Until then its got more fiction in it than a Steven King novel.

The consensus here is split but if I needed an RBI in the 9th of a tie game Id rather see Ortiz up with a guy on 3rd with 1 out than this guy.

[rhet]

Conclusion: Batting average is an awful stat.

 

No, it's not a bad stat. It's actually the most important stat with runners in scoring position.

[schillingouttheks]

Swisher's no bargain' date=' but at least he likes to play.[/quote']

 

lol. Like you know that JD Drew doesn't like playing baseball.

[yankees228]

How about 45 RBI and a .260 average a week away from September?

Those #s make Todd Walker look like Ryan Howard.

Sorry,I forgot that those stats are meaningless to the guys who read Moneyball.

When Billy Beane wins something rather than dedicating his services to the elderly I'll buy the book.

Until then its got more fiction in it than a Steven King novel.

The consensus here is split but if I needed an RBI in the 9th of a tie game Id rather see Ortiz up with a guy on 3rd with 1 out than this guy.

 

The playoffs are a crapshoot. Beane's regular season success, especially considering the money he had to work with, is extremely impressive.

[schillingouttheks]

No' date=' it's not a bad stat. It's actually the most important stat with runners in scoring position.[/quote']

 

It's an awful stat. I'd rather have someone that can drive the ball than luckily string together a couple of lucky bloop hits.

 

OBP is a measure of how much you don't make an out, and it already involves batting average. How can you honestly say you would rather look to batting average? There are way too many outside factors that determine someone's batting average.

[schillingouttheks]

How about 45 RBI and a .260 average a week away from September?

Those #s make Todd Walker look like Ryan Howard.

Sorry,I forgot that those stats are meaningless to the guys who read Moneyball.

When Billy Beane wins something rather than dedicating his services to the elderly I'll buy the book.

Until then its got more fiction in it than a Steven King novel.

The consensus here is split but if I needed an RBI in the 9th of a tie game Id rather see Ortiz up with a guy on 3rd with 1 out than this guy.

 

That's not what Moneyball says.

[redsoxrules]

Drew - career stats

 

RISP 2-out: .240

Not RISP 2-out: .287

Difference: .047

 

RISP: .278

Not RISP: .283

Difference: .005

 

Conclusion: he pees his pants more when there are two outs.

 

conclusion : you dont like Drew

[schillingouttheks]

conclusion : you dont like Drew

 

Every Drew hater dislikes him on a personal level, and lets that get into their head. A-Rod could be on this team doing all sorts of awesome and people like the Drew haters would still find a reason to s*** on him because they don't like him.

[rhet]

It's an awful stat. I'd rather have someone that can drive the ball than luckily string together a couple of lucky bloop hits.

 

OBP is a measure of how much you don't make an out, and it already involves batting average. How can you honestly say you would rather look to batting average? There are way too many outside factors that determine someone's batting average.

 

The object of the game is to score runs. Getting a hit with a man on third achieves the object, getting a base on balls does not.

[schillingouttheks]

The object of the game is to score runs. Getting a hit with a man on third achieves the object' date=' getting a base on balls does not.[/quote']

 

It keeps the opportunity alive. As long as you don't kill the inning, you're not a problem. Besides, are you really trying to argue that over his career Drew has not been a run producer?

 

RBI is a team-dependent statistic. Sure, it's nice to have them, but lacking RBIs doesn't make you a s***** run producer.

 

I don't argue that he isn't performing like a $14M/yr player. That said, that isn't Drew's fault. So, the "well he makes $14M a year and doesn't earn his contract" argument is completely invalid, IMO. It places the blame for the contract on completely the wrong party. I measure his performance against what we can expect from his career. What we're paying for it is Theo's responsibility. All that said, JD Drew has been more or less in line for his career, with a down year this year. That happens every now and then, and we knew that when we got him. He has not nearly been the biggest issue on this team over the past few years, so everyone needs to stop acting like he is.

 

I would argue that the object of the game is to get on base so that RBI opportunities arise. If you walk with men on 2nd and 3rd, there is NO problem with that. Period. In fact, it shows incredible plate discipline.

[rhet]

conclusion : you dont like Drew

 

He seems like a nice guy.

 

But he's a mediocre at best player. And this team has locked themselves into a subpar performance from RF for five years.

[rhet]

It keeps the opportunity alive. As long as you don't kill the inning' date=' you're not a problem. Besides, are you really trying to argue that over his career Drew has not been a run producer?[/quote']

 

If the object of the game to get the run in, getting a hit with RISP is better than drawing a walk. In either case the opportunity stays alive.

[CrespoBlows]

How about 45 RBI and a .260 average a week away from September?

Those #s make Todd Walker look like Ryan Howard.

Sorry,I forgot that those stats are meaningless to the guys who read Moneyball.

When Billy Beane wins something rather than dedicating his services to the elderly I'll buy the book.

Until then its got more fiction in it than a Steven King novel.

The consensus here is split but if I needed an RBI in the 9th of a tie game Id rather see Ortiz up with a guy on 3rd with 1 out than this guy.

 

How do you know? You haven't read it.

[CrespoBlows]

That's not what Moneyball says.

 

He hasn't read it. He doesn't know.

[schillingouttheks]

The numbers don't lie. He is a subpar run producer.

 

You're right. They don't lie. Your conclusion is incorrect, and your unwillingness to debate this more openly is proof that you either have some sort of agenda against the guy or you really don't understand how s***** batting average is as a statistic.

 

If the object of the game to get the run in' date=' getting a hit with RISP is better than drawing a walk. In either case the opportunity stays alive.[/quote']

 

The point is not to kill it. Not to succeed in it every time. If you fail 7 out of 10 times, you're successful. That line of thinking still applies. I have no problem with JD Drew working a walk with RISP. Apparently you do, and I have no idea why.

[ORS]

Drew - career stats

 

RISP 2-out: .240

Not RISP 2-out: .287

Difference: .047

 

RISP: .278

Not RISP: .283

Difference: .005

 

Conclusion: he pees his pants more when there are two outs.

Yeah, and his BABIP in that situation is .044 lower than his nonRISP BABIP. Plus, he has the gall to make less outs when the team has a good chance to score and there are two outs. What a selfish prick!

 

This career loser doesn't have what it takes to win. That's why his tie game and 1-run game OPS is higher than spreads of 2,3,4 runs, and it's why he performs at his worst when the game is out of reach either way.

 

I don't know, maybe it's just me, but I think the career numbers tell the best story of all, because in the end, performance in situational hitting tends to gravitate toward the career numbers as the sample expands. By his career numbers and injury history, JD Drew is a very talented ball player who will help your team.......when he takes the field. He will miss time with injury, cramps (both muscle and menstrual), family concerns, sandy vaginitis, what have you, and this is what pisses most people off about him, but in reality, he's quite good at what he does, that is, when he does it.

[schillingouttheks]

Yeah, and his BABIP in that situation is .044 lower than his nonRISP BABIP. Plus, he has the gall to make less outs when the team has a good chance to score and there are two outs. What a selfish prick!

 

This career loser doesn't have what it takes to win. That's why his tie game and 1-run game OPS is higher than spreads of 2,3,4 runs, and it's why he performs at his worst when the game is out of reach either way.

 

Don't bother. This guy will just come back at you with his batting average and prove to you that JD Drew, is, in fact, Satan.

[example1]

His WARP totals haven't justified him being the highest paid player on the team.

 

I don't know how people can spend this much time arguing about Drew. Anyone arguing that he's great needs to take his lack of playing time, his injury proneness and his actual lack of counting stats as something significant. I'm a "moneyball" guy (for lack of a badly-needed better term), but I too am dismayed at his consistently low RBI totals. Even though RBI are a s***** way of measuring a player's overall value, for some reason there ARE players who can both put up .385 OBP and 100+ RBI, and their production is represented in WARP, VORP, Win Shares, whatever... Drew doesn't light up any of those categories.

 

In his 3 seasons with Boston he's had 64, 64 and 48 RBI. That really isn't that impressive. His high in a season in BOS is 126 H.

 

I like when guys get on base, but sometimes you just need someone to hit the f***ing ball.

 

That said, anyone arguing that he sucks needs to step back and look at his career averages and his high OBP and realize that he actually does a nice job of not making outs.

 

It just doesn't seem that hard to me. Like ORS said (and I said before) Im' always happy when he's playing, and I'm disappointed when he's not. His pay doesn't jusitify itself but he's not a complete waste. He's right in the middle between expectations and disappointments. When he's done in Boston we will likely give him a resounding "meh".