David Ortiz DFA watch.

[a700hitter]

Yeah' date=' he's well below elite. The man has a sub .800 OPS season out of the DH spot. He's playing good right now, but he was a terrible player for long stretches this season.[/quote']

There were reasons for that slump. He had developed some bad habits as a result of playing last season with the bad wrist and he had the personal issue of his father's illness. I'd be more concerned with a slump at the end of the year than at the beginning, because stamina issues could be age related. I don't think you gain bat speed as a season goes on or strength. So, I don't think his earlier slump was largely age related.

[CrespoBlows]

There were reasons for that slump. He had developed some bad habits as a result of playing last season with the bad wrist and he had the personal issue of his father's illness. I'd be more concerned with a slump at the end of the year than at the beginning' date=' because stamina issues could be age related. I don't think you gain bat speed as a season goes on or strength. So, I don't think his earlier slump was largely age related.[/quote']

 

You still think he's the Papi of 2006?

[Dipre]

You still think he's the Papi of 2006?

 

How do we even know what Papi he is?

 

At times this season, he's looked like Jorge Piedra, then goes on a power binge that resembles Jim Thome in his prime.

 

Jesus f***ing Christ.

[ORS]

He was dead cold for the first two months of the season. For the last two and a half, he's been as a700 states, just below elite. Since June 1 his line has been .259/.349/.554, with a BABIP of only .230. Is that BABIP real? I don't know. His LD% is in-line with his career, his GB% is lower at the expense of a higher FB%, and GB's tend to find a way through for hits at slightly higher rate than FB's tend to find a hole, but not enough to account for the .070 drop in BABIP from his career .304. During that stretch he's walked 13.9% of his ABs compared to about 15% during his 2004-2007 peak, and he's struck out 23.2% of the time compared to about 21.5% from 2004-2007.

 

Anyone who wants to contend he can still be elite has a case.

[Dipre]

I hadn't noticed he's been that unlucky.

 

But still, sometimes it looks as though he's pressing at the plate.

 

His BB/PA was significantly lower when he was slumping at the beginning of the year than when he started heating up against the Yanks.

[CrespoBlows]

He was dead cold for the first two months of the season. For the last two and a half, he's been as a700 states, just below elite. Since June 1 his line has been .259/.349/.554, with a BABIP of only .230. Is that BABIP real? I don't know. His LD% is in-line with his career, his GB% is lower at the expense of a higher FB%, and GB's tend to find a way through for hits at slightly higher rate than FB's tend to find a hole, but not enough to account for the .070 drop in OPS from his career .304. During that stretch he's walked 13.9% of his ABs compared to about 15% during his 2004-2007 peark, and he's struck out 23.2% of the time compared to about 21.5% from 2004-2007.

 

Anyone who wants to contend he can still be elite has a case.

 

In this case, I concede.

[example1]

He was dead cold for the first two months of the season. For the last two and a half, he's been as a700 states, just below elite. Since June 1 his line has been .259/.349/.554, with a BABIP of only .230. Is that BABIP real? I don't know. His LD% is in-line with his career, his GB% is lower at the expense of a higher FB%, and GB's tend to find a way through for hits at slightly higher rate than FB's tend to find a hole, but not enough to account for the .070 drop in BABIP from his career .304. During that stretch he's walked 13.9% of his ABs compared to about 15% during his 2004-2007 peak, and he's struck out 23.2% of the time compared to about 21.5% from 2004-2007.

 

Anyone who wants to contend he can still be elite has a case.

 

This is unrelated to Papi per-se, but I'm curious whether BABIP expectations should be adjusted due to "the shift". When a defense can predictably set up to cover only 65% of the field and a hitter plays into that, doesn't that mess with the expected number of hits that are likely to find grass? I think it would.

 

Anyway, Papi has looked markedly better the last few weeks and his ABs have been better as well. I think he is still succeptable to good fastballs (which wasn't the case in years past) but his eye still seems pretty acute and when pitchers make mistakes he can still rip the ball.

 

If he were to reemerge as even a .900 OPS kind of guy (with almost .400 of that from OBP) this team would be in much better shape. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

[a700hitter]

You still think he's the Papi of 2006?

No, I think it is almost certain that a wrist injury like the one he sustained causes a mid-30's hitter to lose something. He's clearly in decline from his heyday, but I don't think he is near the cliff yet.

[ORS]

I just caught an error in my BABIP calculation. It's been .256 during his recent stretch (forgot to take HR away from the AB total). Still low for him.

 

When did the shift start getting employed full time? I'd say, by memory, it was 2005. Since 2005 his BABIP has been .293. Compared to his career average of .304, I'd call the impact of the shift a minimal one, and not something that should account for the -0.050 he's experiencing during his recent stretch.

[Gom]

He was dead cold for the first two months of the season. For the last two and a half, he's been as a700 states, just below elite. Since June 1 his line has been .259/.349/.554, with a BABIP of only .230. Is that BABIP real? I don't know. His LD% is in-line with his career, his GB% is lower at the expense of a higher FB%, and GB's tend to find a way through for hits at slightly higher rate than FB's tend to find a hole, but not enough to account for the .070 drop in BABIP from his career .304. During that stretch he's walked 13.9% of his ABs compared to about 15% during his 2004-2007 peak, and he's struck out 23.2% of the time compared to about 21.5% from 2004-2007.

 

Anyone who wants to contend he can still be elite has a case.

 

As a player ages, his strikeouts will increase and his walks will decrease as pitchers are more likely to challenge him. Therefore, I believe his Ks and BBs are consistent with decline.

 

Also, as has been stated, players who use only a portion of the field will see a decline in their BABIP as the defense is covering the majority of the holes due to a severe pull-hitters inability to use the entire infield [see Giambi].

 

I believe what you are seeing from Ortiz is a repeat of Giambi, just a year or two behind. If you look at their stances and hot zones, they are basically carbon copies of each other. Lumbering, left-handed hitters with the ability to hit the ball out of the park if you make a mistake in their wheelhouse, but little else, and a halfway decent eye...and who can attribute a great part of their success due to performance enhancing drugs.

[SoxSport]

Kotchman over Ortiz? I think that would be a horrible mistake.

 

You have to look at the defense, too. This is a good lineup. I would platoon Lowell and Ortiz at DH and use Lowell some at 3B if he can play. AGon may make Lowell more playable at 3B with his restricted range. Lowell is hitting well right now, and they need his bat in the lineup, especially against LHP.

[SoxSport]

Papi's only good month was the month of June. His OPS and OBP numbers have been down below acceptable DH levels in July and August, even though he has hit some HRs. 4 in the last 5 or so games.

He's hot right now, and we'll see if he can maintain it.

[a700hitter]

You have to look at the defense' date=' too. This is a good lineup. I would platoon Lowell and Ortiz at DH and use Lowell some at 3B if he can play. AGon may make Lowell more playable at 3B with his restricted range. Lowell is hitting well right now, and they need his bat in the lineup, especially against LHP.[/quote']

When you posted the lineup, I thought it was just for purposes of offense. Even factoring in defense, I don't think it is worth it to swap out Ortiz for Kotchman

[Dojji]

Ortiz: .755 OPS

Kotchman .751 OPS

 

such a downgrade. The horror.

[ORS]

Ortiz: .755 OPS

Kotchman .751 OPS

 

such a downgrade. The horror.

Please read the rest of the thread. Papi's .750 is composed of a stretch of a .570 piece and a .900 piece (that we are currently still in). Those pieces for Kotchman are .745 (opening day to 5/31) and .757 (6/1 to present day).

 

Yes, it's a downgrade.

[Dipre]

I just caught an error in my BABIP calculation. It's been .256 during his recent stretch (forgot to take HR away from the AB total). Still low for him.

 

When did the shift start getting employed full time? I'd say, by memory, it was 2005. Since 2005 his BABIP has been .293. Compared to his career average of .304, I'd call the impact of the shift a minimal one, and not something that should account for the -0.050 he's experiencing during his recent stretch.

 

I'll argue this.

 

Looking through Ortiz's hit charts for Fenway park from '06-'09 you can easily verify the fact that Papi's use of the opposite field is minimal this year, while in his best seasons ('06 and '07), a considerable number of his hits went to the opposite way beating the shift.

 

And we're not just talking singles, but also a lot of doubles and a couple homers per seasons.

 

So, in essence, his inability to use the whole field may not have affected his power numbers a lot, but it has greatly affected his batting average and ability to get on base.

 

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=bos&playerID=120074&statType=1

[ORS]

What charts are you looking at, because the one's I get for 2009 show all of his doubles to LF and a larger percentage of his homers than the 2004-2007 stretch? You can't hotlink those flash players, but I can print screen and change the file format to a jpeg if you need me to post it.

[SoxSport]

With all the lying and the stonewalling that's gone on in baseball about steroids, it's not unfair to assume that the public is only seeing the tip of the iceberg. The only real information that has been forthcoming has been leaked to the public or volunteered by trainers who supplied steroids. If you go back to the Mitchell statements, he implies that steroid use was common, everybody knew about it and nobody did anything. That would explain the stonewalling. You can't convince me an owner or a GM who is paying millions to these guys doesn't know what's going on. Heck, 76 HRs was great for baseball, tickets, TV ratings and the rest of it. Remember when Mac hit about 10 in a row over the screen at Fenway. Wow. Now we know thanks to ESPN they cork the bats and the balls in HR hitting contests.

 

In the world of theater, everything is fakery and deception. It's entertainment. Sports TV, with all the revenue and the importance of ratings, has become a bit like theater. And with the entertainment has come the deception.

[Dipre]

What charts are you looking at' date=' because the one's I get for 2009 show all of his doubles to LF and a larger percentage of his homers than the 2004-2007 stretch? You can't hotlink those flash players, but I can print screen and change the file format to a jpeg if you need me to post it.[/quote']

 

Please do.

 

I could be dead wrong since i based my comparison in Fenway only since i couldn't find an overall chart.

[ORS]

I will tomorrow, because it's a pain in the ass that takes a little time that I'm not interested in spending on pointing out the obvious. Are you sure you can't put your glasses on and look at the years again? I looked at Fenway only too, and there's no way you can be serious about him going oppo less this year.

[Dipre]

I will tomorrow' date=' because it's a pain in the ass that takes a little time that I'm not interested in spending on pointing out the obvious. Are you sure you can't put your glasses on and look at the years again? I looked at Fenway only too, and there's no way you can be serious about him going oppo less this year.[/quote']

 

Check the link i gave you, i'm dead serious.

 

Click "All" for 2009 and then try 2007 and 2008.

[ORS]

I did. They are all very similar, but if one year had more "noise" on the LF side, it's this one. I think you are grasping at straws here.

[Dipre]

I did. They are all very similar' date=' but if one year had more "noise" on the LF side, it's this one. I think you are grasping at straws here.[/quote']

 

I probably did something wrong, so i'll check it out again.