All that is Halladay

[Dojji]

He was pitching over his head and has regressed. That's what I mean when I say he's lost some luster.

 

He's still having a great year, so I don't see much luster lost, most everyone knew a correction was in order.

 

 

 

Saito barely pitches and has cost us a few games this season. I question the strategy of investing $1.5 million in anyone who is a question mark to throw a single pitch during the season.

 

He's on pace for over 60 innings, what the hell are you talking about?

 

Saito and his 136 ERA+ are worth that contract and then some.

 

 

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=pennybr01&year=Career&t=p

 

[table]Half|ERA|OPS|tOPS

1st|3.97|.730|98

2nd|4.37|.759|105[/table]

 

How many times was he recovering from shoulder surgery in those first halves?

 

not buying it. Putting up those second half numbers still represents an improvement.

 

Also, that's not exactly a huge split anyway.

 

 

Who are we going to trade for? Your boy Teahen isn't available according to most reports.

 

Actually that's not particularly clear, but in the absence of Teahen, Overbay, Huff, LaRoche or Johnson would serve quite nicely

Tex only cost money.

 

And our first rounder who turned into Reymond Fuentes.

[TheKilo]

a major-league pitcher who came to town for $5 million doesn't ever come without concern but what Penny has meant up to this point has absolutely justified the contract

 

He sure has.

 

What effect has his and Smoltz's 5 inning affairs had on the effectiveness of the bullpen?

 

His peripherals are in line for a regression and since he has not been a very good 2nd half pitcher in his career, everything's lined up for him really struggling from here on out.

[TheKilo]

He's still having a great year' date=' so I don't see much luster lost, most everyone knew a correction was in order.[/quote']

 

That's fair.

 

 

 

He's on pace for over 60 innings, what the hell are you talking about?

 

Saito and his 136 ERA+ are worth that contract and then some.

 

Saito has pitched 13.2 IP since June 1. That's almost two whole months. He's also struggled lately, especially with his command (7.11 ERA in his last 6.1 IP, 1 K/BB ratio, 1.109 OPS against).

 

 

 

How many times was he recovering from shoulder surgery in those first halves?

 

not buying it. Putting up those second half numbers still represents an improvement.

 

Also, that's not exactly a huge split anyway.

 

What?

 

Even if his shoulder surgery had something to do with it, his peripherals don't leave me with much hope.

 

1.5 WHIP, Over 10 H/9, less than 6 K/9, and this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/535_P_season_full_9_20090720.png

 

 

 

 

Actually that's not particularly clear, but in the absence of Teahen, Overbay, Huff, LaRoche or Johnson would serve quite nicely

 

And Teixeira would have been even better.

 

 

And our first rounder who turned into Reymond Fuentes.

 

Huzzah for a new toolsy CF! No shortage of those in the system.

[Paradisecity]

whats the market rate for Penny?

[BoSox21]

He sure has.

 

What effect has his and Smoltz's 5 inning affairs had on the effectiveness of the bullpen?

 

His peripherals are in line for a regression and since he has not been a very good 2nd half pitcher in his career, everything's lined up for him really struggling from here on out.

 

Don't bring Smoltz into the discussion, I'm not defending him. I'm talking about Brad Penny. Thx.

 

It's amazing that you defend Dice-K's 2008 season but bash Penny cause only 10 of his 18 starts have gone at least six innings.

 

And I've it with everyone and they're f***ing "he's due for a regression" doomsday s***. People said the same thing about Lowell in 2007 and Youkilis in 2008. JUDGE HIM BASED ON WHAT HE'S DONE, NOT WHAT YOU'RE SCARED HE MIGHT DO.

[Dojji]

whats the market rate for Penny?

 

$.01

[Paradisecity]

I have to believe there will be a decent market for him, specifically in the national league. Certainly better than $.01

 

I feel like he could be in the middle of a 3 team deal that gets us a bat, maybe Martinez or Johnson, with one of our higher prospects attached with him

[BSN07]

whats the market rate for Penny?

 

Depending on which pitchers are available. If Halladay and Lee are both gone, then a desperate GM might fork over a good prospect. He's at least worth a "B" level type guy right now IMO.

[yankeessuck013]

Sox have a surplus of starting pitching, they could deal Penny for a B prospect. The Phillies or Brewers come to mind, who are short on starters, especially since neither will trade the farm away for Halladay IMO. The Phils, especially, would be reluctant to part with young talent for Doc now, now that they've won 12 of 13. The Phils already stated they wouldn't trade Kyle Drabek, and the Brewers wouldn't part with Escobar or Gamel which would need to be centerpieces for a Halladay deal.

 

Also, there's a 99% chance the Sox would not offer Penny arbitration after the season, so they could deal him now to get something in return. Trading him now would be the surest way of obtaining talent in return.

[BSN07]

Lee and Halladay will have to been sorted before Penny's value will really get up their. If someone misses out on the two or decide there too pricey, he could net a decent return.

[TheKilo]

Don't bring Smoltz into the discussion' date=' I'm not defending him. I'm talking about Brad Penny. Thx.[/quote']

 

Brad Penny not going deep into ballgames, along with John Smoltz, has hurt the bullpen's effectiveness. Do you disagree?

 

It's amazing that you defend Dice-K's 2008 season but bash Penny cause only 10 of his 18 starts have gone at least six innings.

 

2.90

5.02

 

Can you tell me the significance of these numbers?

 

And I've it with everyone and they're f***ing "he's due for a regression" doomsday s***. People said the same thing about Lowell in 2007 and Youkilis in 2008. JUDGE HIM BASED ON WHAT HE'S DONE, NOT WHAT YOU'RE SCARED HE MIGHT DO.

 

So, what you're essentially asking, is to cherry-pick the best season for every player and use that as the predictor of performance going forward instead of using the career as a whole?

 

Just want to be clear. Let me know.

[Paradisecity]

Lee and Halladay will have to been sorted before Penny's value will really get up their. If someone misses out on the two or decide there to pricey' date=' he could net a decent return.[/quote']

 

See, i don't agree with this line of thinking. Halladay and Lee are both premier pitchers and the talent level demanded in return is so huge that I believe it completely segregates Penny. Because of the high asking price for the other two, Penny is attractive to more teams as a viable alternative for those that know they won't be able to afford Halladay or to those who just don't want to mortgage their entire system. Meanwhile we get a high B level and ship him out along with one or our less coveted A's for a guy like Martinez, or ship less out for a guy like Johnson.

[Dipre]

 

 

 

2.90

5.02

 

 

You're using Dice-K's ERA?

 

Really?

 

How about running through his peripherals?

[TheKilo]

You're using Dice-K's ERA?

 

Really?

 

How about running through his peripherals?

 

How about running through Penny's?

 

Bad peripherals are fine when you don't give up runs. I can defend DiceK's season because even though it was flukey and out of the ordinary, he still won 18 games and posted a sub 3 ERA.

 

Brad Penny can't make that claim, and while I think he's been solid I'll put my money on a regression instead of a DiceK fluke 2nd half.

 

It's OK though, I'm just going to get called out for being a pink hat or whatever.

[VA Sox Fan]

How about running through Penny's?

 

Bad peripherals are fine when you don't give up runs. I can defend DiceK's season because even though it was flukey and out of the ordinary, he still won 18 games and posted a sub 3 ERA.

 

Brad Penny can't make that claim, and while I think he's been solid I'll put my money on a regression instead of a DiceK fluke 2nd half.

 

It's OK though, I'm just going to get called out for being a pink hat or whatever.

 

 

Pink Hat or Whatever....

[TheKilo]

Pink Hat or Whatever....

 

[BoSox21]

Brad Penny not going deep into ballgames' date=' along with John Smoltz, has hurt the bullpen's effectiveness. Do you disagree?[/quote']

 

Absolutely, but list me the teams whose 4th and 5th starters don't tax the bullpen with regularity

 

2.90

5.02

 

Can you tell me the significance of these numbers?

 

I'm not gonna get into a Dice-K vs. Penny debate but I will argue that Penny's ERA is misleading when you consider he's allowed 3 ER or less in 13 of 18 starts. How much more would you ask from your 4th starter?

 

So, what you're essentially asking, is to cherry-pick the best season for every player and use that as the predictor of performance going forward instead of using the career as a whole?

 

Just want to be clear. Let me know.

 

No, I'm gonna go ahead and not condemn a guy for s***ing the bed when he hasn't yet just so I can have the satisfaction of saying "I told you so" three months from now.

[TheKilo]

Absolutely' date=' but list me the teams whose 4th and 5th starters don't tax the bullpen with regularity[/quote']

 

After you list me the teams who's 4th and 5th starters havent pitched through the 7th inning one time this season.

 

 

 

I'm not gonna get into a Dice-K vs. Penny debate but I will argue that Penny's ERA is misleading when you consider he's allowed 3 ER or less in 13 of 18 starts. How much more would you ask from your 4th starter?

 

More innings, more strikeouts from a supposed power pitcher.

 

I did say he's been solid, but I really wonder how long it will continue.

 

 

 

No, I'm gonna go ahead and not condemn a guy for s***ing the bed when he hasn't yet just so I can have the satisfaction of saying "I told you so" three months from now.

 

So we're not going to discuss anything or offer opinions on what we think will happen?

 

The numbers say Penny is a worse 2nd half pitcher than 1st half pitcher.

 

His peripherals are OK if you disregard the fact that he gives up over 10 H per 9 and the FB% as increased while the GB% has decreased.

 

I'll put my money on him struggling. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it turns out not to be the case.

[BSN07]

His 2nd half numbers are worse then his first half. But not by leaps and bounds.

 

Penny's inability to get passed the 6th inning stems from a few things, some I have noticed are.

 

1. The Sox having him on a strict pitch count. So as to protect their investment and no tax his surgically repaired shoulder.

 

2. Penny's inability to manage the pitch count that has been given to him.

 

3. The 3rd time through the lineup might be giving him problems. He lives on his FB. And we all know that can come back to haunt you( See Beckett 06).

 

Most games he gives a quality outing. But he's normally around 100 pitches in the 5th or 6th. Similar to what Dice-K gave last season(this year it was 100 pitches for 2 IP while giving up 3 or 4 runs(I exaggerate)).

 

This is just one point of view though. I'm sure there are many leading factors to Penny not being able to pitch late into games.

[BoSox21]

More innings, more strikeouts from a supposed power pitcher.

 

I did say he's been solid, but I really wonder how long it will continue.

 

he's been allowed to go over 100 pitches in 8 of 18 starts this season and there are 6 starts that I saw where he was pitching well and had a reasonable-enough pitch count that he gone have gone at least 7 innings were the organization not (and rightfully so) pulling back on the leash a little bit

 

but who knows, maybe the fact that they've held him back earlier in the season could make for a stronger than usual second half from him

[SCM33]

Blue Jays set July 28th deadline on Halladay:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4346295

[SoxSport]

I think the Sox did not count on Dice-K effectively missing the season up to this point, and that has complicated things. It has put more pressure on Penny and even Smoltz. You put a right Dice-K into the equation, and things look different.

 

When you consider their top 3 starters stunk in April and May, they are lucky to be where they are. On the other hand, they'd be far ahead if their top 3 had pitched as was expected.

[yankeessuck013]

Ricciardi told the Toronto Sun "it is unlikely Halladay will be traded"

[Dutchy]

Ricciardi told the Toronto Sun "it is unlikely Halladay will be traded"

 

Ricciardi is the one who should be traded.

[a700hitter]

Ricciardi told the Toronto Sun "it is unlikely Halladay will be traded"

They like to say that right before they trade the guy.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Rays have reportedly jumped in the Halladay sweepstakes.

 

http://www.torontosun.com/sports/columnists/bob_elliott/2009/07/23/10230151-sun.html

 

The most intriguing team to surface in addition to usual suspects such as the Brewers, Phillies, Red Sox, Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago White Sox are the Rays, who emerged on Tuesday night.

 

And there are more offers.

 

"They tell me they are getting calls from teams you would not guess if I gave you 10 guesses," one visiting scout said. "Not all the names in the papers and elsewhere are accurate. I don't think we're at that point yet. It's still early."

 

I'd rather that didn't happen.

[redsoxrules]

I'm still shocked that Riccardi hasent been given the Boot yet

he's been nothing but FAIL

[BSN07]

Ricciardi told Jordan Bastian that Halladay has provided him with a list of teams to which he would approve a deal.

 

Ricciardi also says Halladay wants to test the free agent market after next season.

 

 

No extension? No thank you. That's all we need. Trade Buchholz to Toronto and watch him dazzle for the next 5+ years. And then watch Halladay walk out of town possibly to the Yanks.

[SoxSport]

I wonder if the Red Sox are short suiting themselves by building a stable of starters who can't go over 100 pitches because they aren't conditioned to go much more than that. That may be the downside of pitch counts. Soundness and conditioning are the two most important elements for an athlete--just like racehorses.And they are independent. If you want a guy to go 7 innings, you have to condition him to go 120 pitches, not 100 pitches. If you have a pitcher who isn't sound, you aren't going to get much bang for your buck.

[yankeessuck013]

Buster Olney reporting ESPN950 radio that Phillies & Halladay trade will happen and includes pitching prospect Kyle Drabek.