Red Sox Defense According to UZR

[Dutchy]

For those of you who don't know, UZR stands for Ultimate Zone Rating. It's possibly the most advanced defensive statistic available to the public. In fact, from 2003 until just recently, UZR wasn't available to the public because it's inventor, Mitchel Litchman, was hired by the Cardinals and the organization liked the statistic so much, they didn't want any other team to have access to it. But beginning last year, UZR and UZR/150 (UZR rating adjusted to 150 games) has been available on fangraphs.

 

So I thought I'd post the various range factors four or player (catchers don't get a range factor) so we can discuss the team's defensive ability. But keep in mind, the UZR isn't a perfect stat. It can get a little distorted when measuring outfielders especially because of strange ballpark sizes or outfielder positioning. UZR assumes that every player has the same "zone" they should be defending regardless of the batter, ballpark or players around them.

 

Anyways, here are their ratings according to UZR/150.

 

Kevin Youkilis: 10.7 at 1B, -0.7 at 3B

Dustin Pedroia: 6.4

Nick Green: 3.7

Mike Lowell: -16.4

Jason Bay: -9.3

Jacoby Ellsbury: -8.9

J.D. Drew: 11.9

 

A few surprises...

 

Mike Lowell's range looks horrible. Other players who have had hip surgery have shown similar drop in their range (Utley, A-Rod). Mark Kotsay's defense at first is really quite good (+16 last year, +17 so far this year). So temporarily moving him to 1st and Youkilis to 3rd while Lowell's hip heals should improve the defense quite a bit.

 

And the other big surprise is Ellbury's -8.9. This could just be a fluke result of the large CF in Fenway Park and those strange angles, which UZR doesn't account for. His ZR is one of the best in baseball among CF. But this suggests that he may not be an elite defensive CF and he has room for improvement.

[TheKilo]

Good idea for a thread - but keep in mind the sample is not large enough to draw any conclusions from.

 

I will say this, a lot of these numbers seem accurate (aside from Ellsbury).

 

Youkilis, now, is a much better 1B than 3B. I think the fact that he's getting older means his range is becoming more limited. Still, being rated as an average defensive 3B sounds about right.

 

Pedroia and Drew are clearly above average defensive players. Green's number surprised me but he gets to a lot of balls Lugo wouldn't get to.

 

Bay has very limited range, and similar to Manny a lot of his warts are hidden by the Monster. Unfortunately, the Monster also skews the defensive rating pretty badly. Bay really benefits having Ellsbury next to him.

 

Lowell is a statue. His hands are still OK but he has no range. Very troubling that his hip is bothering him so much right now.

[Dutchy]

Good idea for a thread - but keep in mind the sample is not large enough to draw any conclusions from.

 

I will say this, a lot of these numbers seem accurate (aside from Ellsbury).

 

Youkilis, now, is a much better 1B than 3B. I think the fact that he's getting older means his range is becoming more limited. Still, being rated as an average defensive 3B sounds about right.

 

Pedroia and Drew are clearly above average defensive players. Green's number surprised me but he gets to a lot of balls Lugo wouldn't get to.

 

Bay has very limited range, and similar to Manny a lot of his warts are hidden by the Monster. Unfortunately, the Monster also skews the defensive rating pretty badly. Bay really benefits having Ellsbury next to him.

 

Lowell is a statue. His hands are still OK but he has no range. Very troubling that his hip is bothering him so much right now.

 

Most of these numbers are in line with career trends. Bay has a career -7.1 UZR/150 in left, this year it's -9.3. Ellsbury's UZR/150 in center over his career is -2.2, so his current rating is a little off from the trend at -8.9.

 

The big surprise is obviously Lowell, but like you said, he's a statue. That rating matches up with what I've seen with my eyes, and like I said pretty much everyone who has hip surgery sees their range go way down. The same dramatic trend can be seen in Utley and A-Rod. Hip surgeries didn't used to be so common though, so it's hard to say how long it will affect a player's range.

 

And I think Drew's defense has always been underrated because he never has to dive for balls. But this is the second straight year his UZR/150 has been over 10.

 

Also of note, Jed Lowrie has a 24.6 UZR/150 last year at shortstop. It will be interesting to see how he does this year.

[example1]

If I understand correctly the UZR rating literally tracks balls and plots them compared to other players ranges, is that correct? Seems like a solid way to evaluate a player, so the Ellsbury number is surprising to me too (though I had seen it a few weeks ago, so it isn't newly so).

 

This might be a case where the FO looks at the numbers and sees an imperfect measurement rather than a defensive weakness. Subjectively, Ellsbury seems like an excellent defensive CF. He tracks down linedrives and fly balls. His arm is weak but he gets to just about everything and there aren't many that he hasn't been able to make plays on. He also hasn't hurt himself with errors. It just seems like a metric that somehow under values what he brings to the table.

 

I think if you asked the Red Sox they would say that in terms of making outs in the OF Ellsbury has elite speed and gets tremendous jumps on the ball. I think they have always felt that way about him. The numbers don't back it up, but they may have their own system that does. I simply don't remember many plays that Ellsbury has missed where I thought to myself "another CF could have caught that ball". I watch most of the games, so my sample size is nearly as large as the performance itself. Curious.

[Dutchy]

If I understand correctly the UZR rating literally tracks balls and plots them compared to other players ranges, is that correct? Seems like a solid way to evaluate a player, so the Ellsbury number is surprising to me too (though I had seen it a few weeks ago, so it isn't newly so).

 

This might be a case where the FO looks at the numbers and sees an imperfect measurement rather than a defensive weakness. Subjectively, Ellsbury seems like an excellent defensive CF. He tracks down linedrives and fly balls. His arm is weak but he gets to just about everything and there aren't many that he hasn't been able to make plays on. He also hasn't hurt himself with errors. It just seems like a metric that somehow under values what he brings to the table.

 

I think if you asked the Red Sox they would say that in terms of making outs in the OF Ellsbury has elite speed and gets tremendous jumps on the ball. I think they have always felt that way about him. The numbers don't back it up, but they may have their own system that does. I simply don't remember many plays that Ellsbury has missed where I thought to myself "another CF could have caught that ball". I watch most of the games, so my sample size is nearly as large as the performance itself. Curious.

 

Yeah, Ellsbury having such poor range doesn't match up with what I've seen with my own eyes either. There are two reasons I can think of for why UZR would be so poor. One would be the triangle in centerfield. And the other could be that Drew is catching balls in Ellsbury's defensive zone, which Ellsbury would be penalized for.

 

This is probably one of those prime examples of the limitations of sabermetrics.

[THE ARS]

They rank Joe Crede as the best fielder in baseball.

 

Just some food for thought.

 

 

Tom

[Dojji]

this could be useful on the subject of how best to replace Lowell if all the desperate measures we're using to keep him in the field fail.

 

Looks to me like bringing in a 3B is the way to go. Bringing in a 1B can work but it will tend to rob Peter to pay Paul and will result in turning 1 excellent position and 1 mediocre one into two average to below average positions. Not sure the upgrade of Youks over Lowell at 3B is downgrade at 1B, either Youkilis' bat vs Kotsay's, or his glove vs. LaRoche or Johnson.

 

My favorite move is a trade for Mark Teahen, replacing Kotsay on the roster. While Teahen is a mediocre 3B (-10 UZR/150) he's an improvement over Lowell so far this year. And Teahen is a respectable outfielder over his career, His UZR/150 isn't below zero in any outfield position although the CF sample size is negligible. I imagine that he could do at least 80% of what Kotsay provides defensively, add 3B to that, and hit much better. he also destroys righties, which is a weakness of Mikey's, so even if Lowell doesn't go down I think having Teahen over Kotsay would improve the team.

[Dutchy]

They rank Joe Crede as the best fielder in baseball.

 

Just some food for thought.

 

 

Tom

 

Joe Crede's a damn good defensive player.

[Dutchy]

this could be useful on the subject of how best to replace Lowell if all the desperate measures we're using to keep him in the field fail.

 

Looks to me like bringing in a 3B is the way to go. Bringing in a 1B can work but it will tend to rob Peter to pay Paul and will result in turning 1 excellent position and 1 mediocre one into two average to below average positions. Not sure the upgrade of Youks over Lowell at 3B is downgrade at 1B, either Youkilis' bat vs Kotsay's, or his glove vs. LaRoche or Johnson.

 

My favorite move is a trade for Mark Teahen, replacing Kotsay on the roster. While Teahen is a mediocre 3B (-10 UZR/150) he's an improvement over Lowell so far this year. And Teahen is a respectable outfielder over his career, His UZR/150 isn't below zero in any outfield position although the CF sample size is negligible. I imagine that he could do at least 80% of what Kotsay provides defensively, add 3B to that, and hit much better. he also destroys righties, which is a weakness of Mikey's, so even if Lowell doesn't go down I think having Teahen over Kotsay would improve the team.

 

Mark Teahen might be an offensive upgrade over Lowell right now. But I wouldn't call a -10 UZR/150 a defensive upgrade.

[Dojji]

-10>-16

[Dutchy]

-10>-16

 

Oh, is that how negative numbers work? :shock:

 

UZR is just one stat, and this year is a small sampling of Teahen's career. Teahen's put up some preeeeetty ugly UZR/150 ratings at 3B over his career (-23.9, -17.6). Given how sure-handed Lowell is on balls he can get too, he's probably as good as Teahen defensively, even now.

[Dojji]

-23.9,

 

In his rookie year

 

-17.6

 

In a 19 game sample in 2008 when he'd spent most of the year learning how to play right field.

 

The one year he went into the year as the Royals' presumptive 3B, Teahen had an 0.4 UZR in 2006. I think he's better than his sample suggests but because of limited exposure and having his position coopted by a younger prospect we may never know. even if not, though, he's good enough at 3B to be useful to Boston.

[THE ARS]

Joe Crede's a damn good defensive player.

 

The best defensive player in baseball?

 

 

Joe Crede?

 

I will take the utterly useless fielding percentage over UZR all day.

 

Why?

 

Torii Hunter, career -2.3 UZR. Career FP .992.

 

What number do you believe truly reflects his beauty in the field?

 

 

Tom

[THE ARS]

Oh, man, this s*** is gold.

 

Barry Bonds at 38? 6.1.

 

39? 16.79

 

40 yo? 4.6.

 

41? 24.9.

 

Kenny Lofton at 40? 7.5.

 

Good stuff, keep it coming.

 

 

 

Tom

[Cocos Disciples]

Bonds' 24.9 is per 150 games, when in that season he played 13.

[THE ARS]

How many games did he play in the other years he was rated an above average defender?

 

 

 

Tom

 

 

Julio Lugo has put up a better number than Rey Ordonez. Man, I know it only goes back to 2002 but that should tell you all you need to know about this stat.

[Cocos Disciples]

Julio Lugo has put up a better number than Rey Ordonez. Man, I know it only goes back to 2002 but that should tell you all you need to know about this stat.

 

Or it tells me all I need to know about your reading skills. Per 150 games, Ordonez's UZR is 4.3 and Lugo's is 2.9.

 

This is one of the points of statistics--to show you something you didn't know. Since you clearly have a preconceived notion of which fielders are the best and you're unable to be convinced otherwise, what's the point of any statistic?

[Keeper]

I think this shows that UZR is slightly flawed. Ellsbury is easily one of the best center fielders in the game today. Maybe he was penalized for his arm.

[Dutchy]

How many games did he play in the other years he was rated an above average defender?

 

 

 

Tom

 

 

Julio Lugo has put up a better number than Rey Ordonez. Man, I know it only goes back to 2002 but that should tell you all you need to know about this stat.

 

Joe Crede's never had a bad UZR/150 in any year of his career. He's always had good range. And having watched him play, that's what I see in the games.

 

I don't know what you're looking at for reference, but Julio Lugo's -43 UZR/150 this year is quite a bit worse than Rey Ordonez' -8.1. Lugo's career UZR/150 is also worse. Maybe you're looking at the wrong stat.

 

Not sure what you have against UZR, but it is the most advanced defensive statistic available to the public. Does it have it's flaws? Sure. But what's the alternative, FPCT? No thank you.

[THE ARS]

Or it tells me all I need to know about your reading skills. Per 150 games, Ordonez's UZR is 4.3 and Lugo's is 2.9.

 

This is one of the points of statistics--to show you something you didn't know. Since you clearly have a preconceived notion of which fielders are the best and you're unable to be convinced otherwise, what's the point of any statistic?

 

Not every statistic is pointless.

 

This one is.

 

Now tell me honestly, without looking at your beloved numbers.

 

Was a 40yo Barry Bonds or a 38yo Kenny Lofton a better defender than Torri Hunter?

 

If you can defend these numbers I will grant you a 400.64 UZR.

 

 

Tom

[Cocos Disciples]

Now tell me honestly, without looking at your beloved numbers.

 

lulz

 

You like fielding percentage, right?

[Dutchy]

Torri Hunter what year? If you're talking 38 year old Lofton and Torii Hunter now, I'd say it's a toss up. I remember seeing Kenny Lofton in 2007, when he was in his 40's and he could still run the ball down out there. Obviously, I'd expect Bonds' numbers to be worse than either one, even though he was playing left field which has a different zone rating system than centerfield.

 

Like I said, UZR has some flaws, especially with outfielders. But what's the alternative?

 

What do YOU use for defensive stats, fielding percentage?

[THE ARS]

Joe Crede's never had a bad UZR/150 in any year of his career. He's always had good range. And having watched him play, that's what I see in the games.

 

I don't know what you're looking at for reference, but Julio Lugo's -43 UZR/150 this year is quite a bit worse than Rey Ordonez' -8.1. Lugo's career UZR/150 is also worse. Maybe you're looking at the wrong stat.

 

Not sure what you have against UZR, but it is the most advanced defensive statistic available to the public. Does it have it's flaws? Sure. But what's the alternative, FPCT? No thank you.

 

 

Dutchy, these geeks did not invent the calculator.

 

They use the same stats that have been available since the start of the game.

 

They have the same value they did in 1919.

 

None.

 

If you rate Joe Crede as the best defensive player in baseball you are wrong.

 

These are the same dudes who will tell you with a straight face that BA is a useless stat.

 

The only time a walk is as good as a hit is when you can't get a hit.

 

I know this. I heard it every time I stepped on deck.

 

 

Tom

[Dutchy]

Looked it up, UZR/150 said Hunter has a -4.3 which isn't all that shocking since it looks like he's lost a step watching him play. Lofton had a career high 19.9 UZR/150 in 2005 at age 38 (not a full season). Again, not shocking because he was a good fielder and was still in good shape, he stole 22 bases that year.

 

And Bonds played 13 games at age 40 so you couldn't possibly have been serious trying to use that as a sample size

[Cocos Disciples]

You guyz are all nerds that live in your mother's basements!!!!

[Dutchy]

Dutchy, these geeks did not invent the calculator.

 

They use the same stats that have been available since the start of the game.

 

UZR was invented this decade.

 

If you rate Joe Crede as the best defensive player in baseball you are wrong.

 

That's not how UZR works. It compares players to other players AT THE SAME POSITION. That just means that Joe Crede has more range than any other 3B in baseball, it has nothing to do with his defensive ability compared to anyone not playing 3B. You should look up how the stat works before you bash it. If you did, you'd realize you're not reading the stat correctly.

[THE ARS]

lulz

 

You like fielding percentage, right?

 

 

No.

 

Worthless number.

 

Like UZR.

 

No.

 

Bet they use it to compute UZR though.

[Dutchy]

 

Bet they use it to compute UZR though.

 

Yup, just like UZR has been around since the 1800's and it's valid to compare a guy's range at 3rd to a guy' range in center

[THE ARS]

Looked it up, UZR/150 said Hunter has a -4.3 which isn't all that shocking since it looks like he's lost a step watching him play. Lofton had a career high 19.9 UZR/150 in 2005 at age 38 (not a full season). Again, not shocking because he was a good fielder and was still in good shape, he stole 22 bases that year.

 

And Bonds played 13 games at age 40 so you couldn't possibly have been serious trying to use that as a sample size

 

 

Hunter at - 2.9 career.

 

You think he is anything less than stellar in CF?

 

Saves more runs than any man in baseball, in my humble opinion.

 

 

Tom

[BoSox21]

You guyz are all nerds that live in your mother's basements!!!!

 

I live in yer mother's room, LOLWUTZZZZZZ