2009 AL Cy Young Watch

[Dipre]

CC hasn't pitched well enough to be considered an AL Cy Young contender. To me' date=' its down to Doc and Felix.[/quote']

 

Greinke?

[BSN07]

No chance. He's way too far behind in ERA.

 

What? His is 3.58. Beckett's is 3.38. CC has 14 wins. Tied with Becket, 1 more then Halladay, 2 more the Felix and 3 more then Greinke. Say all you want about W's being a flawed stat or a bad gauge. I would probably agree with you. But when it comes to Cy Young's the boters really like the big W totals.

 

I'm not saying he's a lock to win it. But should be in the discussion.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I give it to Verlander.

[High Mileage]

Sunday...

Beckett: L #5, 8 innings, 9 hits, 8 runs (earned), 0 walks, 5 strikeouts, 5 home runs. ERA up to 3.65

Hernandez: L #5, 6 innings, 9 hits, 6 runs (3 earned), 0 walks, 6 strikeouts, 1 home run. ERA up to 2.73

[High Mileage]

Monday...

Halladay: L #7, 6 innings, 12 hits, 8 runs (7 earned), 1 walk, 8 strikeouts, 1 home run. ERA up to 3.03

Verlander: W #14, 5.2 innings, 10 hits, 4 runs (4 earned), 2 walks, 7 strikeouts, 0 home runs. ERA up to 3.38

 

Tuesday...

Greinke: W #11, 8 innings, 5 hits, 2 runs (earned), 1 walk, 15 strikeouts, 1 home run. ERA down to 2.43

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v359/KScivic/Royals/alcyw12.jpg

[CrespoBlows]

What? His is 3.58. Beckett's is 3.38. CC has 14 wins. Tied with Becket, 1 more then Halladay, 2 more the Felix and 3 more then Greinke. Say all you want about W's being a flawed stat or a bad gauge. I would probably agree with you. But when it comes to Cy Young's the boters really like the big W totals.

 

I'm not saying he's a lock to win it. But should be in the discussion.

 

Grienke's 181 ERA+ begs to differ.

[yankees228]

Grienke's 181 ERA+ begs to differ.

 

I would be very impressed with the voters if they gave Grienke the Cy Young. I don't expect them to.

 

If the 2005 AL Cy Young voting is any kind of indicator, he probably won't win it.

[Keeper]

I would be very impressed with the voters if they gave Grienke the Cy Young. I don't expect them to.

 

If the 2005 AL Cy Young voting is any kind of indicator, he probably won't win it.

 

Not sure how Santana didn't win in '05.

 

I still think they'll give it to Greinke, though, unless he has a major meltdown. The 15 Ks might have been the performance to put him over the top for good.

[Dipre]

I would be very impressed with the voters if they gave Grienke the Cy Young. I don't expect them to.

 

If the 2005 AL Cy Young voting is any kind of indicator, he probably won't win it.

 

Greinke is top 3 in the league in every important pitching category, and first in the most beloved by voters: ERA.

[Paradisecity]

I would argue that the most beloved voter stat is wins and losses.

 

And I think that one will hurt him.

[Dipre]

I would argue that the most beloved voter stat is wins.

 

And I think that one will hurt him.

 

CC Sabathia's Cy says hello.

[Paradisecity]

CC Sabathia's Cy says hello.

 

CC had 1 win less than the leader, with the same number of losses. Grienke is 3 wins behind the leader in wins and 4 losses behind the pitchers with the least amount of losses.

 

If this is your argument, then 2007 C.C. says hello to your ERA as well, since Lackey had him destroyed there.

 

2007 is because the guy has similar stats to the others with 40 more innings, and is irrelevant to anything we've discussed.

 

note: only 16 more innings than Lackey, who had 2 more losses and an ERA .2 lower, which only furthers my point.

[Dipre]

CC had 1 win less than the leader, with the same number of losses. Grienke is 3 wins behind the leader in wins and 4 losses behind the pitchers with the least amount of losses.

 

If this is your argument, then 2007 C.C. says hello to your ERA as well, since Lackey had him destroyed there.

 

2007 is because the guy has similar stats to the others with 40 more innings, and is irrelevant to anything we've discussed.

 

note: only 16 more innings than Lackey, who had 2 more losses and an ERA .2 lower, which only furthers my point.

 

The only point was that fact that CC, like Carpenter in 2005, didn't lead in wins.

 

This tells you that even though voters love wins, they're not completely blinded by them.

[Paradisecity]

They aren't blinded by anything. ERA included. I'm pretty sure that wasn't the point being made.

[Dipre]

I would argue that the most beloved voter stat is wins and losses.

 

And I think that one will hurt him.

 

CC Sabathia's Cy says hello.

 

They aren't blinded by anything. ERA included. I'm pretty sure that wasn't the point being made.

 

Listen, champ, i'm pretty sure you have a crystal ball and you might think you can read people's thoughts. but you can't.

 

I said Fat Sabby's Cy says hello because he didn't lead the league in wins, meaning someone who doesn't lead the league in wins can win it.

 

Now please enlighten me about the point i was trying to make that i didn't know i was trying to make.

[Paradisecity]

You said that the stat most beloved by voters is ERA. I disagreed. You pointed out someone who was supposed to go against what I said, but didn't make your case for you. I found statistics that show why that was irrelevant. You changed the wording of what you were saying and told me i was trying to tell you what you were saying. Thats not the case. I am telling you I disagree with your assessment as ERA being the most beloved statistic among voters. Calm down

 

Listen- I'm not saying that ERA doesn't matter, but they favor wins. Look at the 2003 (Hudson) AL race. Look at the 2005 AL race (Santana). These men had MUCH better ERAs but didn't win. The main differentiating statistic? W-L.

 

I would say if W-L are close they will favor a significantly lower ERA, but in Grienke's case, that is not the case.

 

 

Edit: had names flip-flopped- fixed now

[Dipre]

You said that the stat most beloved by voters is ERA. I disagreed. You pointed out someone who was supposed to go against what I said' date=' but didn't make your case for you. I found statistics that show why that was irrelevant. You changed the wording of what you were saying and told me i was trying to tell you what you were saying. Thats not the case.[b'] I am telling you I disagree with your assessment as ERA being the most beloved statistic among voters. [/b] Calm down

 

Listen- I'm not saying that ERA doesn't matter, but they favor wins. Look at the 2003 (Santana) AL race. Look at the 2005 AL race (Hudson). These men had MUCH better ERAs but didn't win. The main differentiating statistic? W-L.

 

I would say if W-L are close they will favor a significantly lower ERA, but in Grienke's case, that is not the case.

 

You could've just said that in the first place.

[Paradisecity]

You could've just said that in the first place.

 

 

I'm pretty sure I did.

 

Here's an example to show what I mean though:

 

 

TEAM GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L ERA

*** 33 33 222.2 215 93 86 43 157 21 8 3.48

*** 33 33 231.2 180 77 74 45 238 16 7 2.87

 

Which one of these guys won the Cy Young?

[Paradisecity]

GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L ERA

34 34 240.0 197 84 72 61 162 16 7 2.70

36 36 266.0 253 111 96 32 204 22 7 3.25

[Paradisecity]

GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L ERA

35 35 245.2 177 88 71 44 290 16 14 2.60

33 33 214.1 169 76 71 79 218 18 4 2.98

[Paradisecity]

GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L ERA

33 33 241.2 204 82 76 51 213 21 5 2.83

32 32 211.1 151 51 44 62 185 13 8 1.87

[Dipre]

IP and SO were also major factors. (Except in Santana's case)

 

But the better records DID win the Cy.

[Paradisecity]

I'm pretty sure I did.

 

 

 

 

TEAM GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L ERA

*** 33 33 222.2 215 93 86 43 157 21 8 3.48

*** 33 33 231.2 180 77 74 45 238 16 7 2.87

 

 

2005 - top is Award winner Bartolo Colon, bottom is Johan Santana

 

 

 

GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L ERA

34 34 240.0 197 84 72 61 162 16 7 2.70

36 36 266.0 253 111 96 32 204 22 7 3.25

 

 

2003- top is Tim Hudson, bottom is award winner Roy Halladay

 

 

 

 

GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L ERA

35 35 245.2 177 88 71 44 290 16 14 2.60

33 33 214.1 169 76 71 79 218 18 4 2.98

 

 

2004- Top is Randy Johnson, bottom is award winner Roger Clemens

 

 

 

 

GP GS IP H R ER BB SO W L ERA

33 33 241.2 204 82 76 51 213 21 5 2.83

32 32 211.1 151 51 44 62 185 13 8 1.87

 

 

 

2005- Top is award winner Chris Carpenter, bottom is Roger Clemens

 

 

 

The last two are crazy. Clemens threw almost the exact same number of innings, and had an ERA almost 1 full point lower than his ERA the previous year, against a man who had a higher ERA than the challenger the previous year in similar innings. But Carpenter won 21 games. Clemens 13.

[Paradisecity]

Dipre- I think Clemens 2004 v Clemens 2005 shows that innings didn't matter much. He threw the same, against an opponent who threw the same as the previous opponent.

 

RJ had 290 SO in 2004, as well as 30 extra innings and an ERA .38 lower. His 16-14 record buried him. Shameful.

[BoSox21]

To me, there's something to be said about a pitcher coming up big down the stretch when his team is in the thick of things which doesn't bode well for Greinke or Halladay. Although neither of them are at fault for their teams sucking.

[Dipre]

Dipre- I think Clemens 2004 v Clemens 2005 shows that innings didn't matter much. He threw the same, against an opponent who threw the same as the previous opponent.

 

RJ had 290 SO in 2004, as well as 30 extra innings and an ERA .38 lower. His 16-14 record buried him. Shameful.

 

This is true.

 

RJ should've won the Cy easily.

[Paradisecity]

In this process I noticed that ESPN's website doesn't show Clemens' stats? Not sure if it is because he isn't a current player, but either way it makes comparisons tough.

[Dojji]

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Roger-Clemens.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero02.shtml

[Paradisecity]

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Roger-Clemens.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero02.shtml

 

I found his stats on baseball reference- i just couldnt find an easy way to compare leaders by year- that is an easy find on espn, though it is sans RFC.

[Dojji]

If I actually thought there were any justice in the world I'd say the league should just hand Zack Greinke the award and be done with it. Considering the team he's pitched ahead of he's been absolutely incredible.