Xavier Nady out for the yr

[ORS]

It wasn't a prediction for Christ's sake, it was what "Gom would do" to fix the Yankees. And, like BSN said, it took no foresight to see them signing those three. All 3 were in the "best available" basket, and all three addressed a position of need.

 

Now, as for Molina vs. Posada, I think the case for Molina is being overstated. Over his career, Posada has 928 RC in 1489 G, compared to Molina's 121 RC in 506 G. That's a difference of 0.62 R/G to 0.24 R/G. Figure a starting catcher catches about 120 games a year. Behind the dish, Posada is better by 46 runs over the course of a typical season.

 

For the defensive side of it, that 46 runs is worth a 0.38 change in ERA. Bill James and Keith Woolner (Baseball Prospectus) have studied catcher ERA, and independently both came to the conclusion that the impact of a catcher on a pitching staff is either statistically insignificant or unable to be measured. If the impact was 0.38, they'd be able to catch it, and it wouldn't be insignificant.

[diony]

It is truly difficult to explain anything to the idiots of the planet, but here goes.

 

I loved Nady, and I am upset he is gone. I think in the short term, this team suffers with his loss. But when I use the term, "long-term", I mean longer than the short term. I thought that was implied, but then again, I need to consider my audience. Nady is a 1 yr guy. I think its pretty easy to see. Boras is the agent, he's coming off a big 08 and he isnt really the type of player we lock up long term (lacks patience). So, as a 1 yr player, he is not a long term player. Juan Miranda, OTOH, could be a long term player as we controlhim for 6 major league seasons. He has done nothing but hit and show patience in the minor leagues and he has come out gangbusters this season. If we find a way to get him into the lineup on a semi-regular basis and prove he is more than a AAAA player, than this team benefits in the long run from Nady's absence.

 

So losing Nady is okay because it gives Juan Miranda a shot? He's not even a top-10 prospect. In fact, I'd have to check, I don't think he's even a top-30. He can't hit leftys to save his life. You do realize Miranda is a 1B right? We have 180 million Teixeira and Swisher for 1B. DH? Matsui and Posada are slotted there. When A-Rod comes back I suspect he might need some time there as well.

 

I think there is some benefit in the short term by getting Swisher in the lineup, but having Nady as the short term insurance policy would have been really nice.

 

Swisher has been in the lineup way before Nady got hurt. Don't you watch games? As someone said above, when Swisher goes back to Swisher, you're going to miss the X-man. If Nady haven't got hurt, they were going to slot Swisher in the DH spot, and screw Matsui.

[riverside sluggers]

So losing Nady is okay because it gives Juan Miranda a shot? He's not even a top-10 prospect. In fact, I'd have to check, I don't think he's even a top-30. He can't hit leftys to save his life. You do realize Miranda is a 1B right? We have 180 million Teixeira and Swisher for 1B. DH? Matsui and Posada are slotted there. When A-Rod comes back I suspect he might need some time there as well.

 

 

 

Swisher has been in the lineup way before Nady got hurt. Don't you watch games? As someone said above, when Swisher goes back to Swisher, you're going to miss the X-man. If Nady haven't got hurt, they were going to slot Swisher in the DH spot, and screw Matsui.

 

We have Dojii to headline prospects, you guys have Jacko to headline the Yankee prospects

[Dojji]

Prospects, sure. This would not be unlike being OK that we lost Lowell because now Bailey gets a chance to show us what he can do.

[jacksonianmarch]

So losing Nady is okay because it gives Juan Miranda a shot? He's not even a top-10 prospect. In fact, I'd have to check, I don't think he's even a top-30. He can't hit leftys to save his life. You do realize Miranda is a 1B right? We have 180 million Teixeira and Swisher for 1B. DH? Matsui and Posada are slotted there. When A-Rod comes back I suspect he might need some time there as well.

 

 

 

Swisher has been in the lineup way before Nady got hurt. Don't you watch games? As someone said above, when Swisher goes back to Swisher, you're going to miss the X-man. If Nady haven't got hurt, they were going to slot Swisher in the DH spot, and screw Matsui.

 

If you go by scout.com, once a player makes his debut, he is no longer on the list. Miranda made his debut last yr. Make no bones about it, Miranda has a big league bat and he has a solid eye to boot. He will carve out a job in the majors. My question is whether he's going to be a starter caliber player, or a pinch hit type. He's a butcher at 1b and has been tried in the OF with minimal to no success. He's similar to Carter in that respect.

 

In short, he turns 26 at the end of this month, he has solid power and patience. He does K a lot and has minimal value in the field. Sounds like a potential DH type to me. And if he comes up and has a good half season, say .270/.350/.450, then his value rises and he might be dealable for something we need.

[jacksonianmarch]

Prospects' date=' sure. This would not be unlike being OK that we lost Bay because now Bailey gets a chance to show us what he can do.[/quote']

 

As is currently constituted, the yankees would have to sit either Nady or Swisher. So, no, this isnt akin to that situation. Bay is going to start nearly every game this yr.

[Mr Crunchy]

Nick Swisher is on pace for 125 hrs and 250 rbi.

I for one predict a drop off but theres no way in Gods green earth losing Nady helps NY over the season.

[jacksonianmarch]

And I said that. I dont think people are understanding me here. Losing Nady hurts this team. Its a short term loss, though. It isnt like losing one of our starting pitchers to tommy john and feeling the effects for 2 seasons. This is a player who wont be on our roster in 2010. And, if a player like Miranda comes up to the majors and performs to his minor league level of performance, or even slightly below it, then it will help us in the long run as he'll be a useful trade chip, or develop into a permanent DH.

[diony]

Miranda is a 1B. Nady is an OF. I don't see why he's on the discussion.

 

Now the 'depth' in the OF, is Melky Cabrera. If Damon goes down (I'm sure he will), you'll have an Gardner and Melky in the same lineup. But you're okay with that because we have Juan Miranda in AAA.

 

David Robertson got the call up instead of Nady.

[Dipre]

It is truly difficult to explain anything to the idiots of the planet' date=' but here goes.[/quote']

 

Yes, explaining things to people like you is HARD

 

I loved Nady, and I am upset he is gone. I think in the short term, this team suffers with his loss. But when I use the term, "long-term", I mean longer than the short term. I thought that was implied, but then again, I need to consider my audience. Nady is a 1 yr guy. I think its pretty easy to see. Boras is the agent, he's coming off a big 08 and he isnt really the type of player we lock up long term (lacks patience). So, as a 1 yr player, he is not a long term player. Juan Miranda, OTOH, could be a long term player as we control him for 6 major league seasons. He has done nothing but hit and show patience in the minor leagues and he has come out gangbusters this season. If we find a way to get him into the lineup on a semi-regular basis and prove he is more than a AAAA player, than this team benefits in the long run from Nady's absence. I think there is some benefit in the short term by getting Swisher in the lineup, but having Nady as the short term insurance policy would have been really nice.

 

Strawman, and Miranda is not a ML player, at least not yet, so STFU.

 

 

Also, for Gom and the rest, losing Posada last yr was #1a reason why we werent in the playoffs. Yes, he gives something back defensively. But to say that you'd rather Molina catch is pushing it. Molina gave back nearly 300 points of OPS. I dont care how good a defensive whiz the fat man is, he does not make up a 300 point OPS drop. Without Posada, this lineup went from being patient in every hole, to having an absolute black hole in the lineup that lacked patience and speed. He is an absolute, 100% liability in the lineup.

 

Well we agree on something.

[example1]

I didn't see this thread/bit of news when it started. Nady is out for the season? That's great news! :thumbsup:

 

I don't know how a Red Sox fan could argue that this as anything but a net-loss for the Yankees. Nady's 2008 combined AL/NL VORP of 37.5 would have put him just behind Jermaine Dye and just ahead of Ryan Howard. His WARP was 4.7--not record breaking by any stretch but more valuable than Damon and would have placed him 4th on the 2008 Yankees. He's not a great player, but he's a tough out with some power who is in his prime after his best season. Let him sit out the season injured, I'm happy to see the Yankees lose depth early-on.

[diony]

^ Too bad, according to Pete Abraham, Nady won't need surgery. He believes he'll be out for 4-6 weeks.

[26 to 6]

Damn jacko, way to jump the gun with the thread title. It was feared that he MIGHT miss the season. All is good though.

 

As for Miranda, just stop dude. f*** Miranda. The best thing we can do is trade him. He has little to no value to us otherwise. And as for him about to turn 26, keep in mind he's Cuban. That 26 could just as likely be 36

[Gom]

Also' date=' for Gom and the rest, losing Posada last yr was #1a reason why we werent in the playoffs. Yes, he gives something back defensively. But to say that you'd rather Molina catch is pushing it. Molina gave back nearly 300 points of OPS. I dont care how good a defensive whiz the fat man is, he does not make up a 300 point OPS drop. Without Posada, this lineup went from being patient in every hole, to having an absolute black hole in the lineup that lacked patience and speed. He is an absolute, 100% liability in the lineup.[/quote']

 

What Posada gives at the plate, he takes away in the field. I don't expect you to see that, it's beyond you.

 

Molina is such a better catcher than Posada overall, it's not even funny. What hurt the Yankees is the fact that Posada is a million times better than Moeller and the other backups we had. I'm convinced that Molina/Posada is as good a catching tandem in the game.

 

You're making your comparison at the top based on nothing. You're not using anything to back it up. So that point really doesn't do anything to my opinion.

 

And are you really using wins to define the success of pitchers?

 

I'm contending that Posada is adequate, nothing special, but they've been a pretty successful team in the past with him as the everyday catcher...

 

And I'll get back to the subject as well. If Matsui is healthy they need him to DH. The Yankees are a better team with him in the lineup.

Sorry...I was using WINS to define a team. My bad. I'll make sure never to do it again.

 

Is it really coincidence that the Yankees win when Molina is behind the plate, and lose when Posada is behind the plate? You'd figure the opposite would be true, considering the difference between them offensively.

 

When Molina catches, the Yankees win at a higer percentage than when Posada catches. Watch this "trend" become a fact over the season.

[Gom]

Also' date=' for Gom and the rest, losing Posada last yr was #1a reason why we werent in the playoffs. Yes, he gives something back defensively. But to say that you'd rather Molina catch is pushing it. Molina gave back nearly 300 points of OPS. I dont care how good a defensive whiz the fat man is, he does not make up a 300 point OPS drop. Without Posada, this lineup went from being patient in every hole, to having an absolute black hole in the lineup that lacked patience and speed. He is an absolute, 100% liability in the lineup.[/quote']

 

What Posada gives at the plate, he takes away in the field. I don't expect you to see that, it's beyond you.

 

Molina is such a better catcher than Posada overall, it's not even funny. What hurt the Yankees is the fact that Posada is a million times better than Moeller and the other backups we had. I'm convinced that Molina/Posada is as good a catching tandem in the game.

 

You're making your comparison at the top based on nothing. You're not using anything to back it up. So that point really doesn't do anything to my opinion.

 

And are you really using wins to define the success of pitchers?

 

I'm contending that Posada is adequate, nothing special, but they've been a pretty successful team in the past with him as the everyday catcher...

 

And I'll get back to the subject as well. If Matsui is healthy they need him to DH. The Yankees are a better team with him in the lineup.

Sorry...I was using WINS to define a team. My bad. I'll make sure never to do it again.

 

Is it really coincidence that the Yankees win when Molina is behind the plate, and lose when Posada is behind the plate? You'd figure the opposite would be true, considering the difference between them offensively.

 

When Molina catches, the Yankees win at a higer percentage than when Posada catches. Watch this "trend" become a fact over the season.

 

I didn't see this thread/bit of news when it started. Nady is out for the season? That's great news! :thumbsup:

 

I don't know how a Red Sox fan could argue that this as anything but a net-loss for the Yankees. Nady's 2008 combined AL/NL VORP of 37.5

 

I stopped reading at this point. Guess why?

[Gom]

It wasn't a prediction for Christ's sake, it was what "Gom would do" to fix the Yankees. And, like BSN said, it took no foresight to see them signing those three. All 3 were in the "best available" basket, and all three addressed a position of need.

 

Now, as for Molina vs. Posada, I think the case for Molina is being overstated. Over his career, Posada has 928 RC in 1489 G, compared to Molina's 121 RC in 506 G. That's a difference of 0.62 R/G to 0.24 R/G. Figure a starting catcher catches about 120 games a year. Behind the dish, Posada is better by 46 runs over the course of a typical season.

 

For the defensive side of it, that 46 runs is worth a 0.38 change in ERA. Bill James and Keith Woolner (Baseball Prospectus) have studied catcher ERA, and independently both came to the conclusion that the impact of a catcher on a pitching staff is either statistically insignificant or unable to be measured. If the impact was 0.38, they'd be able to catch it, and it wouldn't be insignificant.

 

Then explain why the Yankees pitching overachieved last year, Mussina finally won 20 games, and that the Yankees have a better winning percentage with Molina behind the plate this year.

 

I don't for a second believe that a catcher doesn't have an impact on balls and strikes behind the plate. I believe your second half of the statement is true, that it can't be measured using current statistics. Not only is his ability to influence balls and strikes UNDER valued here, but his arm stops the opposition running game cold. Just like when you had a Rickey Henderson on the bases, he would cause a team to alter their strategy. Same with Molina. Teams don't really run on Molina. When they do, they pay.

 

I thought that James' article on Jeter vs. Everett was a great article, especially the part that stated that some of the worst fielders are some of the best hitters, since their hitting compensates for their fielding.

 

I believe the same is true in reverse. Some of the worst hitters are some of the best fielders, otherwise they wouldn't be in the league.

 

There are two positions in the field that I would sacrifice offense for defense. Catching, unquestionably. Shortstop, maybe. Catchers have an effect on every pitch. Fielders have an effect on only plays in which they are involved in.

 

In any game, from a defensive standpoint, the pitcher has the biggest impact. I'm sure you've heard the saying "Momentum starts with today's starting pitcher". The starting pitcher has the biggest effect on the outcome of any game. Next would be catcher. Last would be DH.

[yankees228]

Gom, a team winning or losing is based on so many other factors than the performance of the pitcher. You know this. Wins are really not a good way to define how well a pitcher is doing. There are much better ways.

[ORS]

Then explain why the Yankees pitching overachieved last year' date=' Mussina finally won 20 games, and that the Yankees have a better winning percentage with Molina behind the plate this year. [/quote']

Two completely meaningless justifications for your argument. One, like Yankees228 mentioned, a W/L is dependent on more than the efforts of the pitcher. Does the picther play a significant role? Absolutely, but he can't control is team's offensive output nor the performance of his bullpen. In 2001 Mussina won 17 games, yet he struck out 214 in 228 IP, and logged a 3.15 ERA with a WHIP of 1.067. Compare that to last year, when he only struck out 158 in 200 IP, and his ERA was 3.37 with a WHIP of 1.223. Clearly, he was better in 2001, but he didn't get the wins. Oh, by the way, Posada caught 131 games in 2001, and 30 of Mussina's 35 games.

 

Two, the Yankees have played 14 games and the split has been 8/6 in favor of Posada in games started. They are 8-3 when CMW doesn't pitch. Posada has caught every CMW game. Think that might skew the W% a bit?

 

I don't for a second believe that a catcher doesn't have an impact on balls and strikes behind the plate. I believe your second half of the statement is true, that it can't be measured using current statistics. Not only is his ability to influence balls and strikes UNDER valued here, but his arm stops the opposition running game cold. Just like when you had a Rickey Henderson on the bases, he would cause a team to alter their strategy. Same with Molina. Teams don't really run on Molina. When they do, they pay.

The problem is, you have an idea in your head, the idea that the team is better with Molina, and therefore you "find" evidence to support it through assumption. You are assuming that Molina can "steal" strikes that Posada can't. If this were true, it would be true of every pitcher he caught for in comparison to Posada, and it would be apparent in the stats. I say it would be apparent because the impact of a strike or ball call on the 1st pitch is a .200 swing in OPS....from there the gap gets wider. If he was able to do it regularly, you'd see suppressed offense when he caught. You did see that last year, but remember what happened. Posada caught most of the early games, when Hughes and Kennedy were s***ing all over themselves, and Molina caught their best pitcher, Mussina, all year. In 2007, when the staff was more stable, their catcher OPSA was identical.

 

I thought that James' article on Jeter vs. Everett was a great article, especially the part that stated that some of the worst fielders are some of the best hitters, since their hitting compensates for their fielding.

 

I believe the same is true in reverse. Some of the worst hitters are some of the best fielders, otherwise they wouldn't be in the league.

You just admitted to being impressed by common sense. This is why people think you have very little of it.

[Gom]

The problem is, you have an idea in your head, the idea that the team is better with Molina, and therefore you "find" evidence to support it through assumption. You are assuming that Molina can "steal" strikes that Posada can't. If this were true, it would be true of every pitcher he caught for in comparison to Posada, and it would be apparent in the stats. I say it would be apparent because the impact of a strike or ball call on the 1st pitch is a .200 swing in OPS....from there the gap gets wider. If he was able to do it regularly, you'd see suppressed offense when he caught. You did see that last year, but remember what happened. Posada caught most of the early games, when Hughes and Kennedy were s***ing all over themselves, and Molina caught their best pitcher, Mussina, all year. In 2007, when the staff was more stable, their catcher OPSA was identical.

QUOTE]

 

When Posada got injured last year, I came out and said that it would be a blessing in disguise for the Yankees as Molina was a much better defensive catcher and IMO the best catcher in the game at framing pitches.

 

Lo and behold, the Yankees pitching way overacheived last year. It's amazing that Mussina threw to Posada for his whole career with the Yankees, and when he finally threw to a good catcher, he won 20 games. Amazing, isn't it?

 

The real problem with you ORS is that you really can't think for yourself. You pay for all these websites with fancy graphs and tables, but you can't formulate an opinion for yourself. You watch pitch f/x and can't understand when pitches out of their strikezone are called strikes, or why pitches in the strike zone are called balls. Try being ahead of the pack sometimes rather than the sheep. Come up with an idea before it becomes mainstream.

 

I watch the games, and I see the difference. I can't tell when I'm at the stadium, but I can see it when I watch on TV. Before you scoff at watching the game, realize that most of your stats come from someone punching in data while watching the game.

[yankees228]

This last post made me laugh. I'm not defending ORS, nor does he need me to, so I'm simply responding to a post that wasn't directed at me. We all watch the games Gom. We don't sit at home in our mother's basements, without a TV, reading statistics and graphs off of our computers. The "new-age" statistics help us better understand what we see on TV. Not everything makes sense, in my opinion, without the help of some of these newer statistical innovations.

[ORS]

Keep telling yourself I'm just some echo-chamber for other's work. I'm sure it soothes you while you avoid the stark truth of how much more well informed and well thought out my points are than yours. Ask anyone.

[ORS]

This last post made me laugh. I'm not defending ORS' date=' nor does he need me to, so I'm simply responding to a post that wasn't directed at me. We all watch the games Gom. We don't sit at home in our mother's basements, without a TV, reading statistics and graphs off of our computers. The "new-age" statistics help us better understand what we see on TV. Not everything makes sense, in my opinion, without the help of some of these newer statistical innovations.[/quote']

It's really funny how predictable he's become. Every, not sometimes, but every single time he gets backed into a corner where the statistical case does not support what he says, he goes to the well, Old Faithful, "Try watching the games".

 

This stuff is freely available (sorry Gom, I pay nothing) to anyone with desire and capacity to learn. Those who lack one of those two things consistently mock it because they can't use it.

 

Here's a question for Gom, if Jose Molina is the best you've ever seen at framing pitches, and framing pitches is so important that it leads to pitcher overachievement (your words), why then was last year the first since 2004 where he lead his team (more than 30 games caught) in catcher OPS against? Clearly, such a magnificent "strike stealer" should be able to repeat this feat, right?

[jacksonianmarch]

it is really, really good that he will be back. Like I said, long term, there was a potential benefit, but we live in the short term, and having him on the roster can only help

[Cocos Disciples]

Definitely. Having Nady on the roster allows the Yankees to further utilize Swisher's versatility, by playing him at 1B when Tex sits and not having to start Gardner/Cabrera in a corner outfield spot. And he'll help when Swisher comes back to Earth.

[CrespoBlows]

I watch the games, and I see the difference. I can't tell when I'm at the stadium, but I can see it when I watch on TV. Before you scoff at watching the game, realize that most of your stats come from someone punching in data while watching the game.

 

I didn't quote the rest of your argument, because it was either idiotic, strawman, or both. However, I give you the point on the salary cap.