Postgame grumblings thread

[jacksonianmarch]

Don't pull that half a season in Pittsburg BS and come back with what Swisher "could" do at his best. You know Abreu is consistently a more productive player than either of them.

 

prior to 07, you are right. But 07-08 he has shown a significant dropoff in power and patience making him less desireable. Consider this, in his last 3 full yrs in Philly, his IsoPatience was .119, .127, .109. FOr 07 and 08, his IsoPatience was .086 and .079. His last 3 full yrs in Philly, his IsoPower was .168, .243, and .188. In NY for 07 and 08, .162 and .175. His 2 OPS's in NY for 07 and 08 of .814 and .842 were the 2 lowest totals of his entire career. Abreu was a great addition to this team and I loved what he did for us out of the 3 hole. But he was not the same player in NY as he was in Philly. If he was, we wouldnt have let him walk for nothing.

 

Nady, OTOH, put up an .867 OPS last yr. And while most of that was due to a power surge, he did out slug and out OPS Abreu. And Swisher, who comes off an abysmal 2008 in CWS, consistently showed the power and patience of his time in Oakland. His BABIP was much lower than it should have been (.249) and potentially points to an unlucky season. When he is on, Swisher is a .120 IsoPatience guy and a .200 IsoPower guy. I think we'll be able to replace him.

[ORS]

IsoP and IsoD are only relevant in the context of what additional information they provide on top of BA. Adam Dunn has a higher IsoD with about the same IsoP as Manny Ramirez in a career comparison. There's no question who the better offensive player is, it's Manny Ramirez because he hits for about .070 more points of BA. The supplemental information doesn't tell us much if we ignore what it is supplementing.

 

Then there's running the bases. This look doesn't account for how 20 or so of Bobby Abreu's singles and walks turn into doubles, while virtually none of Nady's and Swisher's do. If you look at something like RC/G, where Abreu was at 6.2 last year, this compares to Swisher's career highs. Nady isn't even in the conversation without his first half last year. Now, I'm not suggesting that first half gets thrown away, it did happen, but all I'm asking is that you be realistic with your expectations. You are taking career bests from the two guys you support in this argument and throwing them out there as what should be expected. This is coming from the same guy that has written it down in stone that Pedroia and Youkilis are going to be worse this year because last year they set "career highs".

[ORS]

ORS - I get to my conclusions from observation and intution - so I am probably a casual fan. We still have some of them in the site(VA Sox Fan comes to mind).

 

Not that there is anything wrong with statistics - I enjoy all those posts..

Intuition is the ability to sense without reasoning. In other words, thoughtless emotion, as I suspected.

[diony]

IsoP and IsoD are only relevant in the context of what additional information they provide on top of BA. Adam Dunn has a higher IsoD with about the same IsoP as Manny Ramirez in a career comparison. There's no question who the better offensive player is, it's Manny Ramirez because he hits for about .070 more points of BA. The supplemental information doesn't tell us much if we ignore what it is supplementing.

 

Then there's running the bases. This look doesn't account for how 20 or so of Bobby Abreu's singles and walks turn into doubles, while virtually none of Nady's and Swisher's do. If you look at something like RC/G, where Abreu was at 6.2 last year, this compares to Swisher's career highs. Nady isn't even in the conversation without his first half last year. Now, I'm not suggesting that first half gets thrown away, it did happen, but all I'm asking is that you be realistic with your expectations. You are taking career bests from the two guys you support in this argument and throwing them out there as what should be expected. This is coming from the same guy that has written it down in stone that Pedroia and Youkilis are going to be worse this year because last year they set "career highs".

 

Swisher/Nady compensate that with defense. That gives them more value. Abreu was the worst defender in the AL last year in terms of run saved. He costs the Yanks around 22 runs last year in RF. You can also win games by preventing runs.

[ORS]

True, but not relevant to a discussion of offensive production, which was the topic.

[jacksonianmarch]

IsoP and IsoD are only relevant in the context of what additional information they provide on top of BA. Adam Dunn has a higher IsoD with about the same IsoP as Manny Ramirez in a career comparison. There's no question who the better offensive player is, it's Manny Ramirez because he hits for about .070 more points of BA. The supplemental information doesn't tell us much if we ignore what it is supplementing.

 

Then there's running the bases. This look doesn't account for how 20 or so of Bobby Abreu's singles and walks turn into doubles, while virtually none of Nady's and Swisher's do. If you look at something like RC/G, where Abreu was at 6.2 last year, this compares to Swisher's career highs. Nady isn't even in the conversation without his first half last year. Now, I'm not suggesting that first half gets thrown away, it did happen, but all I'm asking is that you be realistic with your expectations. You are taking career bests from the two guys you support in this argument and throwing them out there as what should be expected. This is coming from the same guy that has written it down in stone that Pedroia and Youkilis are going to be worse this year because last year they set "career highs".

 

Arent you of the belief that BA is not a useful stat? Cmon now ORS, be consistent. If you are going to sit there and say that batting average is not useful when it supports your argument and then use it as the basis of another argument, then you are being a hypocrite. Which one is it? If you are of the belief that BABIP is the way to go, then Swisher will be a pretty damn good replacement for Abreu. If batting average is the way to go and if a player has a career yr and it should be considered their new baseline (as you have advocated), then Nady is the better player. Which one is it ORS?

[adam334581]

Yes.....

[Cocos Disciples]

^ Is this THE adam?

[adam334581]

What???

[Cocos Disciples]

Should you be a mod?

[adam334581]

yes

[Cocos Disciples]

Oh boy oh boy oh boy!

[yeszir]

Not again

[Cocos Disciples]

Not again

 

You aren't thrilled?

[TheKilo]

No situational hitting and terrible bullpen management.

 

Yup, it's a Terry Francona team.

[Cocos Disciples]

*Grumble, grumble, etc*

[Dojji]

Sad thing is this game was very winnable if the hitters had performed at an average level with RISP.

[ORS]

Arent you of the belief that BA is not a useful stat? Cmon now ORS' date=' be consistent. If you are going to sit there and say that batting average is not useful when it supports your argument and then use it as the basis of another argument, then you are being a hypocrite. Which one is it? If you are of the belief that BABIP is the way to go, then Swisher will be a pretty damn good replacement for Abreu. If batting average is the way to go and if a player has a career yr and it should be considered their new baseline (as you have advocated), then Nady is the better player. Which one is it ORS?[/quote']

Can you read?

 

Where do I place importance on BA? I only pointed out the failure in your post to account for the base information that IsoD and IsoP are calculated on. Think about what you did. Here's a comparable situation.

 

You want to buy a race car. You neighbor has two race cars for sale. You ask him how fast car #1 is, and he tells you it's 15 mph faster than Jeff's race car. You ask him how fast car #2 is, and he tells you it's 20 mph faster than Steve's race car. Can you make a decision? Apparently, you can without asking him how fast Jeff's and Steve's cars are. At least, that is the essence of what you did in making a case for Swisher and Nady on IsoD and IsoP.

 

The important numbers are still OBP and SLG, but their compenents are BA with IsoD and IsoP respectively. In your comparison, you ignore one component, thus you never get to the more important OBP and SLG.

 

In the end, Swisher and Nady, if they match career highs, can be just a little better than Abreu was in OPS. Only one, Swisher, has been in that range in 50% of the years he's played. The other has done it once. What's the reasonable expectation here?

[Mr Crunchy]

Isop Isod Izod Iroc Ididarod.....

I have no f***ing clue what these abbrevs mean and i have given up on all this s*** since VORP was invented and H became a stat for those who have foresaken women for their fantasy baseball clubs.

Seriously kids, I know women are frightening to talk to at 1st but after the 1st one breaks your heart it gets easier.

as far as the sox go.

I do know that they aint hitting when it matters and Becks was perhaps out of line throwing at Abreaus head with the lead...

1 week into the season and this is what i have concluded so far.

Everyone is beatable and everyone can win a series.

Florida beat santana yesterday

KC beat the Yanks

LA beat us with our horse going

We beat la with wakefield going

Cleveland almost won saturday against Halladay

Philly looks weaker and older

Oakland maybe a pain in the ass

Texas can rake

Bedard in seattle may make them competetive

and atlanta's starters seem good but their bullpen eats it.

Nobody distinguished themselves with the exception of Baltimore looking pretty rugged offensively.

In other words i dont think the al east winner has a chance at 100 wins and the competetion may keep the 2nd place team out of the playoffs because the al east is that good.

Its early and injuries havent come into play just yet,nobody is streaking and the weather is cold in the east and will continue to be cold thruout this week.

We need Jon Lester to resume his status as the best lefty in the american league and i think we'll be ok.

[riverside sluggers]

Okajima didnt help any yesterday as his early season struggles continued

[diony]

Isop Isod Izod Iroc Ididarod.....

 

We need Jon Lester to resume his status as the best lefty in the american league and i think we'll be ok.

 

Yeah, ok.

[BoSox21]

We need Jon Lester to resume his status as the best lefty in the american league and i think we'll be ok.

 

Yea, its pretty tough to argue Lester has been the best lefty in the AL at any point of his career

[das11209]

How would signing Bobby Abreu work exactly?

 

Don't you think Abreu >> Rocco and may be > Drew if Drew is not playing(which happens often)..

[ORS]

Isop Isod Izod Iroc Ididarod.....

I have no f***ing clue what these abbrevs mean and i have given up on all this s*** since VORP was invented and H became a stat for those who have foresaken women for their fantasy baseball clubs.

Seriously kids, I know women are frightening to talk to at 1st but after the 1st one breaks your heart it gets easier.

Ah, and the mother's basement cliche enters the discussion. Never fails.

[das11209]

Ah' date=' and the mother's basement cliche enters the discussion. Never fails.[/quote']

 

I have no clue what you are saying.

[TheKilo]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2009/04/13/swings_of_game_dont_go_sox_way_again/

 

Mike Lowell doesn't want to take it back. Faced with a 2-0 count, with an extremely wild Scot Shields on the mound, and the bases loaded in a one-run game, he thinks it was the right thing to do and the right situation in which to do it. He would, as he said, swing again.

"Looking for one pitch, one spot," Lowell said. "I got it, took a good swing, and the result was obviously not too satisfying. But if I'm in that situation again, I would do exactly the same thing. Hopefully with a different result. But I took away the corners, I looked middle, I looked top, belt high, and that's exactly where it was. My timing was there. I guess it wasn't in the cards. But that was exactly the pitch I wanted in that situation."

[ORS]

I have no clue what you are saying.

I'll edit to clarify, but that was for Crunch.

[das11209]

I'll edit to clarify' date=' but that was for Crunch.[/quote']

 

No problems - ignore my response then.

[ORS]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2009/04/13/swings_of_game_dont_go_sox_way_again/

Is there something wrong with what he said?

[Dojji]

Yeah, Lowell's one of our better power hitters. I was frustrated as heck at the result last night but if he got all of that pitch it would have been a Red Sox win last night. I don't want to put a harness on the guy.

 

The last thing you want to do is overreact to one bad result and pull a hitter's teeth or take him out of his style of offense. That's arguably part of what emasculated Crisp in Boston.

 

That said, in that situation, if you're going to go after your pitch you'd better get some results with it.