Red Sox Rotation Discussion

[riverside sluggers]

everybody got caught up in his raw power' date=' but nobody really understood how bad of an offensive player he was. His approach sucked, he hardly ever made contact and he never could hit to the situation. Yes, when he hit the ball it was usually a missile, but that was so few and far between that he eventually ran out of chances. I'll tell you what, if Arroyo was still on this team for 2009, [b']I'd say you'd have a much better chance than where you stand now. [/b]Arroyo would man that 5 hole every 5th day and would be giving you close to 200IP. Thats all you need out of that slot in the rotation. But now? You have one pitcher with a torn labrum who's been increasingly fragile over the past couple seasons and you have a 5a and 5b who are both hurt.

 

Yep their season is looking bleak because of the 5th spot

 

Ill say it again, the Sox won the division in 2007 with Julian Tavarez as the 5th starter

[jacksonianmarch]

Would it be the 5th spot now? Penny is topping out at 90 per the NESN gun and is coming off a tired shoulder. Smoltz isnt ready yet. And Wakefield has a torn labrum. Are you saying that a healthy, innings eater like Arroyo wouldnt be welcome on your team right now? That's crap and you know it

[BoSox21]

Wakefield has had a torn labrum for two years now so how is that even relevant to the debate of his effectiveness? And if Penny doesn't work out, Buchholz is right there to pick up the 5th spot and I'll take Buchholz over Arroyo and his 4.77 ERA in the NL Central

[TheKilo]

Would it be the 5th spot now? Penny is topping out at 90 per the NESN gun and is coming off a tired shoulder. Smoltz isnt ready yet. And Wakefield has a torn labrum. Are you saying that a healthy' date=' innings eater like Arroyo wouldnt be welcome on your team right now? That's crap and you know it[/quote']

 

You're an idiot.

[ORS]

Would it be the 5th spot now? Penny is topping out at 90 per the NESN gun and is coming off a tired shoulder. Smoltz isnt ready yet. And Wakefield has a torn labrum. Are you saying that a healthy' date=' innings eater like Arroyo wouldnt be welcome on your team right now? That's crap and you know it[/quote']

What the f*** are you talking about?

 

From Penny's first start back: Link

 

A scout watching Penny had his fastball touching 94 mph and regularly in the 91-92 range.

 

“He had some real good life on his fastball,” Sox manager Terry Francona said. “From where we were, he was out there grunting and letting it fly. That’s what we’re looking for - grip it and go. I think he was excited. It was a good step for him and we all felt good about it. There was a lot of excitement in the dugout today because of how well he threw.”

 

From yesterday: Link

 

There wasn't the same explosion of his fastball as five days earlier, and there were no strikeouts over four innings. Was something wrong with Brad Penny on Saturday afternoon?

 

As it turns out, Penny was fine. It was by design that he relied less on velocity than in his Grapefruit League debut, in which he was so good that he was only able to throw 33 pitches over three innings.

 

This time, Penny wanted to get more of a workout. And he did just that, firing 68 pitches against the Twins, allowing two hits and two runs over four innings.

 

"I felt all right. I went in with a different [mind-set]," said Penny. "The first time I went out to let it go and test myself. Today I went out to pitch a little bit and mix up my pitches. I made it tough on myself a lot of times, going 2-0 to a lot of those hitters. But I got a lot of work in on my splitty especially."

 

The only people who think he's going to have velocity issues once he's stretched out are people who buy into your rectal library of baseball information.

 

This doesn't even address the fact that Arroyo doesn't beat out Buchholz for the 5th spot on this staff.

[riverside sluggers]

Would it be the 5th spot now? Penny is topping out at 90 per the NESN gun and is coming off a tired shoulder. Smoltz isnt ready yet. And Wakefield has a torn labrum. Are you saying that a healthy' date=' innings eater like Arroyo wouldnt be welcome on your team right now? That's crap and you know it[/quote']

 

Umm no, but thanks for putting words in my mouth. I was responding to your post, saying that the 5th spot could be the Sox's downfall.

[rhet]

Sox are deep with starters now, so obviously no need for Arroyo today.

 

But the truth is the Reds fleeced the Sox on that deal. Arroyo is a cheap reliable 4/5 starter innings eater who has won more games since he's been gone than anyone on the Sox except Beckett. Trading him for an injured 5th outfielder who can't field or get his bat on the ball wasn't such a great idea.

[Dojji]

Sox are deep with starters now, so obviously no need for Arroyo today.

 

But the truth is the Reds fleeced the Sox on that deal. Arroyo is a cheap reliable 4/5 starter innings eater who has won more games since he's been gone than anyone on the Sox except Beckett. Trading him for an injured 5th outfielder who can't field or get his bat on the ball wasn't such a great idea.

 

That's because Wily Mo wasn't an injured 5th outfielder who can't field or get his bat on the ball when we got him. He struck out a lot but he slugged consistently enough to get his OPS up into the .800 range fairly regularly despite a low OBP. He was killing the ball for the Reds, and at first for us too. What happened to him happened on our watch.

 

In other words the guy we got in trade was worth the trade, it was we who ruined Wily Mo Pena.

[a700hitter]

Sox are deep with starters now, so obviously no need for Arroyo today.

 

But the truth is the Reds fleeced the Sox on that deal. Arroyo is a cheap reliable 4/5 starter innings eater who has won more games since he's been gone than anyone on the Sox except Beckett. Trading him for an injured 5th outfielder who can't field or get his bat on the ball wasn't such a great idea.

How deep are the Sox right now? Wakefield is #4 and he has been pitching with a torn labrum for two years. Penny's shoulder is questionable and he is not ready to take a turn yet. Bucholz had a great spring, but he was god awful last season. Smoltz won't be ready until June at the earliest. There are only 3 solid pitchers in the rotation. Everyone else is a ?

[a700hitter]

That's because Wily Mo wasn't an injured 5th outfielder who can't field or get his bat on the ball when we got him. He struck out a lot but he slugged consistently enough to get his OPS up into the .800 range fairly regularly despite a low OBP. He was killing the ball for the Reds, and at first for us too. What happened to him happened on our watch.

 

In other words the guy we got in trade was worth the trade, it was we who ruined Wily Mo Pena.

The Red Sox ruined his entire career?

[Cocos Disciples]

The Red Sox also told a kid with cancer that there's no Santa Claus. They're pretty f***ing mean.

[Keeper]

In other words the guy we got in trade was worth the trade' date=' it was we who ruined Wily Mo Pena.[/quote']

 

How exactly did they ruin him? Pena was never that great to begin with.

[BoSox21]

I'm really amazed at how much analysis of this trade goes on to this day. It's not like this was Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson all over again. Yea, Arroyo turned out to be the better player but the Sox definitely don't miss him and if he pitched in the AL East today, he'd get the s*** lit out of him

[rhet]

The guy I saw on the Reds was a big lug who could hit an occassional ball 500 feet, but had no baseball skills whatsoever.

 

And yeah, the Sox are 8 deep at starter, and like every other team they have a few risks. A few risks with 8 is better than a few risks with just 5.

[a700hitter]

The guy I saw on the Reds was a big lug who could hit an occassional ball 500 feet, but had no baseball skills whatsoever.

 

And yeah, the Sox are 8 deep at starter, and like every other team they have a few risks. A few risks with 8 is better than a few risks with just 5.

8 deep with a few risks? IMO it's more like 3 solid spots in the rotation and 5 question marks. That's more than 60% question marks.

[rhet]

8 deep with a few risks? IMO it's more like 3 solid spots in the rotation and 5 question marks. That's more than 60% question marks.

 

Nothing is ever guaranteed. Nevertheless, this is the deepest Sox staff I've ever seen coming into a season. The only real questions are how to get everybody the innings they need.

[a700hitter]

Nothing is ever guaranteed. Nevertheless' date=' this is the deepest Sox staff I've ever seen coming into a season. The only real questions are how to get everybody the innings they need.[/quote']

As the season progresses, getting everyone enough innings will not be a concern. It never is. The concern will be finding healthy productive arms to run to the mound for the 4th and 5th slots in the rotation.

[Dojji]

8 deep with a few risks? IMO it's more like 3 solid spots in the rotation and 5 question marks. That's more than 60% question marks.

 

True, but most teams are lucky to have 2 guys in their rotation that isn't a question mark so saying right off that we have three is a good thing right there, besides the fact that 3 of the 6 "question mark" guys are youngsters with strong upside which is also an advantage we have over most everyone else.

[BoSox21]

You could put a question mark on anyone starting for the Sox this year. Which Beckett will show up this year? Will Lester regress a bit after a massive innings increase last year? Can Dice-K possibly be as "lucky" as he was last year if his control problems continue?

 

But between Wakefield, Penny, Smoltz, Buchholz and possibly Masterson if it comes down to it, you have to think they'll be able to hold down the 4-5 spots at least adequately

[Dojji]

How exactly did they ruin him? Pena was never that great to begin with.

 

We stunted his development by sticking him on the bench and blocking him in all but his worst position (CF). That limits his ability to get consistent development time severely. Of course most of the damage was done by whoever rushed him to the majors in the first place. but the guy proved he could hit at the big league level in 2 years as a Cincinatti Red -- despite not getting 400 at bats in any season in Cincy. It was only here where he learned how not to be able to hit.

[BoSox21]

The biggest key was that he briefly lit up Triple A in the Reds organization so he was rushed to the majors. He's never improved his ability to get on-base and he's never improved his strikeout rate so he's just too much of a liability for any team to have him as a full-time player. He's Adam Dunn without the OBP.

[a700hitter]

Wakefield has had a torn labrum for two years now so how is that even relevant to the debate of his effectiveness? And if Penny doesn't work out' date=' Buchholz is right there to pick up the 5th spot and I'll take Buchholz over Arroyo and his 4.77 ERA in the NL Central[/quote']Wakefield's torn labrum has caused him increasing durability issues. Those will not get better as he gets further into his 40's. He is also a coin flip every time he goes to the mound when healthy. His biggest asset in his career has been his durability. Without that, he is just a frustrating flutterballer. As for Bucholz, if Penny is a DL resident or just stinks, Bucholz is not a sure thing. He is unproven at the ML level. He had a good spring, but pitching well once the bell sounds is another thing. He hasn't done that yet. In fact, he stunk up the joint last season. As for Arroyo, where did I mention him in my posts?

[a700hitter]

True' date=' but most teams are lucky to have 2 guys in their rotation that isn't a question mark so saying right off that we have three is a good thing right there, besides the fact that 3 of the 6 "question mark" guys are youngsters with strong upside which is also an advantage we have over most everyone else.[/quote']But two of those teams that have rotations that are 3 or 4 deep before they have question marks are in the Red Sox Division-- Tampa and the Yankees. It doesn't matter if the Red Sox are better than every other team in baseball if they are not better than the Yankees or Tampa. That's their competition. Finishing third to those guys is a failure even if they are better than everyone else. The Yankees with CC, Burnett, Wang, Joba and Pettitte are much deeper with less question marks. The Rays with Shields, Kazmir,Garza and Sonnestine are arguably deeper than the Red Sox. I'm not all giddy about starting pitching depth that is not any better than that of our two rivals. The strength of the Red Sox pitching and its advantage over other teams is the bullpen, which can easily break down if the starters can't regularly go deep into games.

[BoSox21]

As for Arroyo' date=' where did I mention him in my posts?[/quote']

 

I was responding to Jacko. You hadn't even made a post in this thread when I made that post.

[Dojji]

But two of those teams that have rotations that are 3 or 4 deep before they have question marks are in the Red Sox Division-- Tampa and the Yankees.

 

Please. The Rays have Shields, Garza and who? Kazmir certainly has question marks with his command and durability, especially recently. Sonnanstine is #4 starter. Price is a rookie.

 

And who the heck is the other team? Not the Yankees for sure. They have Sabathia and a whole rotation full of question marks. Is Burnett going to pitch more than 130 innings or so? Is Wang going to stay healthy? Is Pettitte going to be effective a year further from his prime? Can Joba last a full season as a starter and stay healthy and effective doing it? And even Sabathia hasn't exactly been playoff money in his career. Heck, if we swapped rotations with the Yankees we'd be in PANIC mode right now.

[a700hitter]

Please. The Rays have Shields, Garza and who? Kazmir certainly has question marks with his command and durability, especially recently. Sonnanstine is #4 starter. Price is a rookie.

 

And who the heck is the other team? Not the Yankees for sure. They have Sabathia and a whole rotation full of question marks. Is Burnett going to pitch more than 130 innings or so? Is Wang going to stay healthy? Is Pettitte going to be effective a year further from his prime? Can Joba last a full season as a starter and stay healthy and effective doing it? And even Sabathia hasn't exactly been playoff money in his career. Heck, if we swapped rotations with the Yankees we'd be in PANIC mode right now.

I don't think that you are viewing the Yankees or Tampa very objectively. Most experts like their rotations. As for Kazmir, lots of teams would like to have the young lefty. Sonnestine may be a #4, but I'd swap Wakefield for him in a minute.

[Dojji]

I don't think that you are viewing the Yankees or Tampa very objectively. Most experts like their rotations. As for Kazmir' date=' lots of teams would like to have the young lefty. Sonnestine may be a #4, but I'd swap Wakefield for him in a minute.[/quote']

 

Most experts like their rotations, but what you're missing is that you're taking an extreme closeup view of the Red Sox rotation and trying to compare it to a national media level overview of the rotations of other teams. A microscopic inspection of every potential flaw in the Boston rootation means it won't look as good as a generic overview of what Tampa and NEw York have put together. That's a simple question of comparing apples to apples.

 

A lot of national media types like our rotation too, at least as much as NYY or TB. Sure we have ?'s. SO do they, at about the same level of severity and in about the same numbers, if not greater numbers. Some of those ?'s will work out well for all 3 teams. The division comes down to who gets the most ducks in a row by September.

 

Was I exaggerating? Only somewhat.

 

Kazmir has pitcher abuse related problems from the years when he was the sole savior of the franchise and they caught up with him last year, no one should be sure he'll bounce back smiling this season. He's not as volatile as, say, Oliver Perez, but he's definitely someone to watch closely.

 

Sonnanstine doesn't have top of the rotation stuff. Great command, but hittable. Probably has a Paul Byrd future to him (which both he and the Rays would happily take, I think).

 

Price is a rookie, and much like nearly every other rookie and especially every other pitcher drafted with the #1 overall pick, is going to hit some speedbumps on the road to dominance, not unlike Buchholz did last year.

 

 

Burnett has tremendous stuff, but you can't pretend durability and consistency aren't an issue there.

 

Wang's injury was freakish but at the same time, it's not like that's the first time he's been hurt either and he's a major statistical fluke who's dependent on a decaying Yankee middle infield for effectiveness.

 

Pettitte is getting older and was pretty average last year.

 

Joba Chamberlain has never pitched a full season as a big league starter and until he does, he *is* a question mark.

[ORS]

I don't think that you are viewing the Yankees or Tampa very objectively. Most experts like their rotations. As for Kazmir' date=' lots of teams would like to have the young lefty. Sonnestine may be a #4, but I'd swap Wakefield for him in a minute.[/quote']

And most experts like our rotation too. Does their opinion not count when you have a bone to pick? And, why would you take Sonnanstine over Wakefield in a minute? Wake pitched 181 innings to a 4.13 ERA, Sonnanstine pitched 193 to a 4.38. The differences are marginal, but they do favor Wakefield. I think you are being fooled by Sonnanstine's mysterious ability to frustrate this team lately.

[Dojji]

Sonnanstine throws strikes. He doesn't look like much, but he gives himself a better than usual margin for error by the simple expedient of not getting himself in trouble. He's probably got a future in the bigs as a Paul Byrd type as long as he can keep that level of command.

 

Strikethrowers are the bane of patient teams. They force them to get out of their preferred mode of offense and that tends to lead to weak offensive performances.

[a700hitter]

Most experts like their rotations, but what you're missing is that you're taking an extreme closeup view of the Red Sox rotation and trying to compare it to a national media level overview of the rotations of other teams. A microscopic inspection of every potential flaw in the Boston rootation means it won't look as good as a generic overview of what Tampa and NEw York have put together. That's a simple question of comparing apples to apples.

 

A lot of national media types like our rotation too, at least as much as NYY or TB. Sure we have ?'s. SO do they, at about the same level of severity and in about the same numbers, if not greater numbers. Some of those ?'s will work out well for all 3 teams. The division comes down to who gets the most ducks in a row by September.

 

Was I exaggerating? Only somewhat.

 

Kazmir has pitcher abuse related problems from the years when he was the sole savior of the franchise and they caught up with him last year, no one should be sure he'll bounce back smiling this season. He's not as volatile as, say, Oliver Perez, but he's definitely someone to watch closely.

 

Sonnanstine doesn't have top of the rotation stuff. Great command, but hittable. Probably has a Paul Byrd future to him (which both he and the Rays would happily take, I think).

 

Price is a rookie, and much like nearly every other rookie and especially every other pitcher drafted with the #1 overall pick, is going to hit some speedbumps on the road to dominance, not unlike Buchholz did last year.

 

 

Burnett has tremendous stuff, but you can't pretend durability and consistency aren't an issue there.

 

Wang's injury was freakish but at the same time, it's not like that's the first time he's been hurt either and he's a major statistical fluke who's dependent on a decaying Yankee middle infield for effectiveness.

 

Pettitte is getting older and was pretty average last year.

 

Joba Chamberlain has never pitched a full season as a big league starter and until he does, he *is* a question mark.

So, you have convinced me that the Red Sox rotation is comparable to that of the Yankees and the Rays. I believe that is what I was saying. Those comparisons can be argued in either direction with no clear cut winner. That's why I am not getting all excited about the depth of the Red Sox starting pitching, because it is only arguably on par with that of our two rivals. The Red Sox do not have a clear advantage in this regard in its own division.