Lars Anderson

[scottykick]

So when do you think he will be a in the majors?

[BoSox21]

So when do you think he will be a in the majors?

 

All depends on when there is a need for him. Right now, Jeff Bailey and Chris Carter are probably ahead of him in the pecking order

[Dojji]

That's kinda two different questions.

 

1: when do we think he's ready

 

2: when do we think the team will use him.

 

Possibly a third as well

 

3: When would he be a starter?

 

 

No one is going to maintain the numbers Anderson had in his AA tenure last year indefinitely, but if he puts up good numbers in Portland he might ready to be be promoted to Pawtucket in the second half. Sort of like Ellsbury and Lowrie two years ago. Or he could spend all year in Portland depending on what Bailey, Carter, Natale and McAnulty do with the 1B, backup 1B, DH and LF spots. Anderson is very young and he's not on the 40-man, and we have players under contract for all the significant positions he can play until 2011. There's time.

 

In all likelihood if Anderson is promoted midseason it'd be Bailey who was the roster casualty. IIRC he's out of options and is just too old to hold onto if Anderson starts seriously beateing the door down. Natale could go too, since he doesn't have the range for 2B or the power for 1B, but seriously the guy is an OBP monster, is still young enough to have a bit of projectability, and I suspect the team will wind up wanting to hold onto him as bench fodder. Guys who can put up a .400 OBP consistently throughout an otherwise up and down minor league career aren't guys you let go of in a hurry.

 

Once he's in AAA it's just a question of a spot opening up. In order to gain big league playing time Anderson will have to earn his way past Bailey, Carter, and McAnulty for any cups of coffee going around as a result of possible injuries to Lowell, Papi or Youkilis. He also has Bates and Still trying to run up his back for 1B/DH time in Portland, which is not high odds for either prospect but is something to think about.

 

Given the depth ahead of him it's not a given that he even makes the September roster. If we want a 1B there, I'd have to say both Carter and McAnulty need chances more than Anderson does, and IIRC Lars is not on the 40-man roster yet.

 

It would depend on a few things falling his way that may not. In all likelihood we're looking at a strong possibility of a 2010 debut and a much smaller possibility of a debut this year.

 

Now if we're talking purely on the basis of his talent alone and roster calculus doesn't enter into it, he could probably do all right in the big leagues right now -- and indeed there are teams out there that would have pushed a guy performing as Anderson did in the low minors much harder and he'd probably be in the big leagues right now. An example of this kind of thinking is Billy Butler. But since the decision to rush Butler really didn't do him any favors I don't see where there's much to lose by giving the kid more reps.

 

By 2011 assuming nothing goes wrong I'd like our corner IF to be Youk at 3B, Anderson at 1B and Natale as the backup 1B (a position where I think his exceedingly strong plate discipline can compensate for his relative lack of pop and make him a fine pinch-hitter and righthanded backup to the lefthanded Anderson).

[yeszir]

isnt that a park in Brookline?

[Cocos Disciples]

isnt that a park in Brookline?

 

*Larz Anderson

[a700hitter]

isnt that a park in Brookline?

They already named a park after him? Wow, he must be very good. Probably another Todd Benzinger.

[Dipre]

They already named a park after him? Wow' date=' he must be very good. Probably another [b']Todd Benzinger[/b].

 

Who the hell is he ?

[jacksonianmarch]

Benzinger was a 4th round pick in 81 who burst on the scene when he was 24 in AAA, hitting .323 and 11 homers in half a season. He was supposed to be the sox 1b for yrs to come. Until he turned out to be more of a backup and never lived up to the hype

[Dipre]

Benzinger was a 4th round pick in 81 who burst on the scene when he was 24 in AAA' date=' hitting .323 and 11 homers in half a season. He was supposed to be the sox 1b for yrs to come. Until he turned out to be more of a backup and never lived up to the hype[/quote']

 

I suppose you know this from experience, and that means you're......................old.

[Dojji]

Benzinger is more like Kila Ka'aihue than Anderson.

[jacksonianmarch]

I suppose you know this from experience' date=' and that means you're......................old.[/quote']

 

I do not know this from experience. I do remember when he retired, they did a short segment on him on ESPN about hype and talent gone unfulfilled.

[Dojji]

Still not as bad as Steve Balboni, the poster boy for the fact that HRs are not everything for a hitter..

[az1soxfan15]

So when do you think he will be a in the majors?

 

we could see lars this september when the roster expands to 40. but if not then we will have to wait until september 2010. this kid is gunna make youk a third baseman without question, he can rake...

[Cocos Disciples]

I disagree with September 2010. He may come up when the rosters expand this year, but in 2010 he'll see much more PT (not necessarily as a solid starter, but in stints).

[Dojji]

Yeah, agreed -- I really doubt he'll have that much left to prove to us by midseason 2010, and if Lowell falters in the last year of his contract (which is very possible) it seems inevitable that Anderson will get the call.

[jacksonianmarch]

I disagree with September 2010. He may come up when the rosters expand this year' date=' but in 2010 he'll see much more PT (not necessarily as a solid starter, but in stints).[/quote']

 

The question might become, when do you wish to start his clock. He might be banging on the door, but he is blocked for 2 full yrs if the MLB vets dont go down for an extended period of time. Think about it. Youkilis is locked in long term at 1b. Papi is locked in for 2 more yrs at DH. Lowell is locked in at 3b for 2 more yrs. Those are the three nebulous positions that affect Lars the most. I'll tell you what, he wont be brought up as a backup. So if Lars is in the bigs, someone went down. Hell, he could be up in 2009 if Lowell cannot recover, but it would be in the sox best interest to have Lowell return to form for 2 more yrs and keep Lars in the minors until then

[a700hitter]

This kid is overmatched in ST. He's raw with the bat and he's not a good fielder.

[ORS]

And Pedroia and Lester were destined for mediocrity and the bench, per your ST reports. Lars is now destined for stardom.

[example1]

And Pedroia and Lester were destined for mediocrity and the bench' date=' per your ST reports. Lars is now destined for stardom.[/quote']

 

Yeah, I didn't want to say anything, but a700's track record in judging young talent is pretty poor. NOBODY can judge a player based on 10 ABs.

[BSN07]

Yeah' date=' I didn't want to say anything, but a700's track record in judging young talent is pretty poor. NOBODY can judge a player based on 10 ABs.[/quote']

 

He never is too optimistic is he?

 

He has also sold Ramon Ramirez down the river.

[ORS]

I wouldn't say his ability to judge talent is deficient, but he puts a lot more into a small spring sample of performance based solely on the fact that it occurred before his eyes than he probably ought to.

[a700hitter]

I wouldn't say his ability to judge talent is deficient' date=' but he puts a lot more into a small spring sample of performance based solely on the fact that it occurred before his eyes than he probably ought to.[/quote']Posters on this forum have selective memories about my evaluation of younger players. Posters only remember my negative reports. I was wrong about Pedroia and I have acknowledged my error, but who would have projected a ROY and MVP in 2 years? Anyone who says that is full of BS. I was very optimistic about Ellsbury when I saw him at his first ST. I liked his aggressiveness at the plate and his tools were obvious. I think I first saw Lowrie in 2005 and he was really a skinny kid, but I liked his swing. I still like his swing. I am convinced that his offense last season was very much affected by the injured wrist. If Lugo doesn't hit in April and loses the job to Lowrie, Lugo will never get the job back. I think I saw Lester in 2005. I never said that he wouldn't make it. I was very critical of his command, and I said that he needed 2-3 years to be a major contributor. When he pitched in 2006, posters acknowledged that I had been right about his command. It was very frustrating to watch him get to 100 pitches in the 4th inning in every start. The cancer certainly delayed his development, but he turned the corner in a game against Texas (I think) in May (I think). He was at 40+ pitches after 2 inning. I was at the game and the crowd was moaning and groaning at every 3-2 count. I think a DP helped him and then he started throwing strikes and went 6+. After that, he never looked back and he was the best pitcher on the staff. He was a different pitcher. I was right about his development. It took about 3 years. I always like Papelbon. I never doubted that he would be a stud. Anderson is still a bit raw. He needs a few pounds and more plate discipline. His instincts in the field are poor. IMO he will take more time to develop defensively than offensively but I think he is at least a year and a half away from getting a starting job with the Sox.

 

All in all, with the limited time I get to observe the prospects every spring, I think my track record is okay. I only had the one bad miss- Pedroia. It's hard to see a kid's heart and desire. His physical tools are quite ordinary and his swing is not what any one would teach to a small middle infielder. I don't think I was alone in that assessment. He fooled lots of people with that swing.

[a700hitter]

He never is too optimistic is he?

 

He has also sold Ramon Ramirez down the river.

I didn't sell him down the river. I realize that in a ST game that a pitcher may just be working on 1 pitch in an outing and hitters will realize that and start slamming it. A spring outing is not a good indicator, because he might use a different pitch selection in the regular season. Yesterday, he threw almost exclusively fastballs and I noted that they got hammered. The hits were scoarched. That's not throwing him under the bus. I made no prediction about his regular season performance, so your accusation is completely wrong.

[TheKilo]

So what's your formal opinion of Lars Anderson?

[example1]

All in all, with the limited time I get to observe the prospects every spring, I think my track record is okay. I only had the one bad miss- Pedroia. It's hard to see a kid's heart and desire. His physical tools are quite ordinary and his swing is not what any one would teach to a small middle infielder. I don't think I was alone in that assessment. He fooled lots of people with that swing.

 

He didn't fool anyone who bothered to look at his minor league numbers. Nobody in their right mind would predict someone to be an MVP caliber player, but to predict failure in a player who has had good success through the minors is silly. You have stated repeatedly that you couldn't care less about how someone does in the minors, you don't pay attention to how they do and don't see a need to; then you make evaluations based on short observations in spring training. I'm just saying that there's a more thorough way to do these evaluations, and that should include having an idea about their previous performance.

 

Lars Anderson is widely acknowledge to NOT be 'overmatched' by just about any pitching. He's got a very keen eye and plate control that is considerably above his age and playing level. Nobody knows what his ceiling is, but I think it is safe to say that calling him overmatched based on such a small sample isn't quite right. Do we even know which pitchers he's been facing? Has it been MLB pitchers, or AAA guys?

 

That said, I have to say I'm jealous that you get to be at ST and wish that you and I could watch the players together. I bet we would have a good time with a brew and a bleacher seat. :thumbsup:

[ORS]

Posters on this forum have selective memories about my evaluation of younger players. Posters only remember my negative reports. I was wrong about Pedroia and I have acknowledged my error, but who would have projected a ROY and MVP in 2 years? Anyone who says that is full of BS. I was very optimistic about Ellsbury when I saw him at his first ST. I liked his aggressiveness at the plate and his tools were obvious. I think I first saw Lowrie in 2005 and he was really a skinny kid, but I liked his swing. I still like his swing. I am convinced that his offense last season was very much affected by the injured wrist. If Lugo doesn't hit in April and loses the job to Lowrie, Lugo will never get the job back. I think I saw Lester in 2005. I never said that he wouldn't make it. I was very critical of his command, and I said that he needed 2-3 years to be a major contributor. When he pitched in 2006, posters acknowledged that I had been right about his command. It was very frustrating to watch him get to 100 pitches in the 4th inning in every start. The cancer certainly delayed his development, but he turned the corner in a game against Texas (I think) in May (I think). He was at 40+ pitches after 2 inning. I was at the game and the crowd was moaning and groaning at every 3-2 count. I think a DP helped him and then he started throwing strikes and went 6+. After that, he never looked back and he was the best pitcher on the staff. He was a different pitcher. I was right about his development. It took about 3 years. I always like Papelbon. I never doubted that he would be a stud. Anderson is still a bit raw. He needs a few pounds and more plate discipline. His instincts in the field are poor. IMO he will take more time to develop defensively than offensively but I think he is at least a year and a half away from getting a starting job with the Sox.

 

All in all, with the limited time I get to observe the prospects every spring, I think my track record is okay. I only had the one bad miss- Pedroia. It's hard to see a kid's heart and desire. His physical tools are quite ordinary and his swing is not what any one would teach to a small middle infielder. I don't think I was alone in that assessment. He fooled lots of people with that swing.

I recall your analysis of Lester's potential being a bit more critical. You didn't say he was a couple of years away. You were critical not only of his command, but said he lacked the stuff to be a big league pitcher. You basically predicted him to be a bust.

 

Don't qualify your misses with "the limited amount of time" you get to see them when that was my point to begin with. You put too much stock into that limited amount of time. It's essentially worthless in terms of making credible evaluations. Your track record, no matter how much you defend it, shows this.

[a700hitter]

He didn't fool anyone who bothered to look at his minor league numbers. Nobody in their right mind would predict someone to be an MVP caliber player' date=' but to predict failure in a player who has had good success through the minors is silly.[/quote']I thought Pedroia would be an average second baseman that would be a starter for 3-5 years. That's not failure, but it certainly was not a prediction of stardom.

You have stated repeatedly that you couldn't care less about how someone does in the minors' date=' you don't pay attention to how they do and don't see a need to; then you make evaluations based on short observations in spring training. I'm just saying that there's a more thorough way to do these evaluations, and that should include having an idea about their previous performance.[/quote']Again, I am being misquoted and misinterpreted. I have said that I don't get excited about prospects until they hit the majors. I have repeatedly said that I read the scouting reports and that I know who are the valued prospects in the organization. I just don't get excited about guys that I can't watch play everyday and who are likely to be a trading chip. Does the element of emotion validate a persons judgment. I don't think so.

 

Lars Anderson is widely acknowledge to NOT be 'overmatched' by just about any pitching. He's got a very keen eye and plate control that is considerably above his age and playing level. Nobody knows what his ceiling is' date=' but I think it is safe to say that calling him overmatched based on such a small sample isn't quite right. Do we even know which pitchers he's been facing? Has it been MLB pitchers, or AAA guys?[/quote'] He was overmatched in the ABs that I saw. His approach was poor. Next week he might rip the same pitcher. He's still learning. I didn't say a thing about his ceiling. I don't think he is ready yet, and I think the Red Sox management agrees, because he Will not be coming north.

 

That said' date=' I have to say I'm jealous that you get to be at ST and wish that you and I could watch the players together. I bet we would have a good time with a brew and a bleacher seat. :thumbsup:[/quote']It is fun.

[a700hitter]

I recall your analysis of Lester's potential being a bit more critical. You didn't say he was a couple of years away. You were critical not only of his command, but said he lacked the stuff to be a big league pitcher. You basically predicted him to be a bust.

 

Don't qualify your misses with "the limited amount of time" you get to see them when that was my point to begin with. You put too much stock into that limited amount of time. It's essentially worthless in terms of making credible evaluations. Your track record, no matter how much you defend it, shows this.

Here is one of my posts from that ST thread. I likened Lester to a John Tudor type, but said that he needed time to develop. Being John Tudor is far from being a bust. This was typical of my other Lester posts that spring. Check the thread.

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/game-thread-forum/5554-official-2006-spring-training-game-thread-13.html#post124705

 

You are recalling my more critical posts after he had been called up. I was still not calling him a bust, but his command was atrocious and the bloom was falling off his prospect rose. I thought the Sox should consider moving him from untouchable and trading him. Several other posters were frustrated with him at that time and some were saying that my ST evaluation was spot on.

 

The only reason I qualify my evaluations because of the limited amount of time that I can see these guy is because you can't judge heart, toughness and Baseball IQ unless you follow a player for an extended period. Evaluation of talent level and tools can be done in a short period, and I don't qualify my opinion in that regard. I think my track record in this regard has been pretty good.

[Dipre]

This kid is overmatched in ST. He's raw with the bat and he's not a good fielder.

 

This is basically the issue i have with your take on Lars, a700, i don't mean it as an attack, but here are some excerpts from the Scouting Reports i've found on Lars, as well as his career numbers:

 

From Fan Friday:

 

Scouting Report

 

Here’s what Baseball America had to say about Anderson, who they currently list as Boston’s #1 prospect, “Anderson has plus raw power and an advanced, patient approach for such a young hitter. He generally swings at strikes and isn’t afraid to go deep in counts. His defense around the bag also impressed one scout, who liked how he scooped balls in the dirt to save errors.”

 

 

 

From MLB.com:

 

Scouting report:

 

He has an advanced approach to hitting, simple mechanics, knowledge of strike zone and plus power to all fields. He should hit for average and power in the big leagues and he's worked hard on his defense to the point where he's a good first baseman.

 

 

From ProSports.com:

 

Scouting Report:

 

Large, powerful slugger with a great hitter's frame and a high power ceiling. Extremely smooth and fluid swing, good patience at the plate. Athletic for his size, plays a very good first base. Likely would have been an early-to-mid second round pick if not for high bonus demands.

 

Career Stats:

 

http://www.rotowire.com/Baseball/player.htm?ID=9310

 

So scouting reports from 3 credible sources citing his advanced hitting approach, his willingness to take a walk and ability to hit to all fields, plus his minor league stats, in which he has never had an OBP under .385, that alone should tell you how polished he is as a hitter.

 

That, my friend, is a Major League caliber approach.....if you want to talk about "Raw" approach, you should be talking about Josh Reddick, because that's a raw approach to hitting.

 

A lot of scouts believe that Anderson is ready to hit major league pitching NOW, and i suggest you don't let a couple ST at-bats make you think otherwise.

[kreinbihl34]

This is basically the issue i have with your take on Lars, a700, i don't mean it as an attack, but here are some excerpts from the Scouting Reports i've found on Lars, as well as his career numbers:

 

From Fan Friday:

 

 

 

 

 

From MLB.com:

 

 

 

 

From ProSports.com:

 

 

 

Career Stats:

 

http://www.rotowire.com/Baseball/player.htm?ID=9310

 

So scouting reports from 3 credible sources citing his advanced hitting approach, his willingness to take a walk and ability to hit to all fields, plus his minor league stats, in which he has never had an OBP under .385, that alone should tell you how polished he is as a hitter.

 

That, my friend, is a Major League caliber approach.....if you want to talk about "Raw" approach, you should be talking about Josh Reddick, because that's a raw approach to hitting.

 

A lot of scouts believe that Anderson is ready to hit major league pitching NOW, and i suggest you don't let a couple ST at-bats make you think otherwise.

 

You seem to just not understand that he was making a comment about what he saw with his own eye. It's nothing to be bashed on. Yes one or two guys can comments about how he might be wrong, we get a few laughs, ect. It's clearly labeled that he is basing his comments on personal view.

 

He already was scolded by some members of the board, so stop. It's not necessary.

 

No one is calling him a bust or whatever. You don't need to defend Lars because he feelings might get hurt ot because one poster on one Red Sox board said something negative.