Kotsay undergoes back surgery

[Dipre]

Ohhhhhh no, I think this team and this town have seen enough can't miss prospects miss completely to know better than to take this tack. We've lost whole generations of can't miss pitching prospects. Whither Brian Rose? Whither Frankie Rodriguez? Whither Casey Fossum and Abe Alvarez?

 

Frankly that fastball has me scared. You canNOT just assume that Clay's other pitches will make up for a shoddy fastball. There's going to be games where the curve and change aren't there. Snyder had a really good curve too after all, and a 90+ fastball. Was a heck of a prospect once upon a time Didn't do him a lot of good because he couldn't place his fastball. Same problem Buchholz has.

 

If he can't do more with that fastball than he has done then he has a very good chance of winding up with a very mediocre career. It's because I can see the problem being identified and addressed that I'm hopeful for the kid.

 

But seriously, on the basis of strong command of his main offering and solid secondary stuff, I have to think Bowden is going to "get it" first. Clay will be along, eventually, but gun to my head, ask me who becomes a legitimate pitching star first bwtween Buck and Bowden, it's Bowden.

 

 

I disagree with you on this.

 

Bucholz' stuff is awesome, and he had pretty good command of his fastball until they started tinkering with his arm slot, meaning that there's a pretty decent chance that simply going back to his previous delivery fixes his mechanical problems.

[Dojji]

Honest question from a guy who's never pitched: I thought it wasn't that easy to go back to an old delivery after training for awhile in a new delivery.

 

I still think Bowden breaks out before Buchholz does. Buchholz is probably better once both do though.

[Dipre]

Honest question from a guy who's never pitched: I thought it wasn't that easy to go back to an old delivery after training for awhile in a new delivery.

 

I still think Bowden breaks out before Buchholz does. Buchholz is probably better once both do though.

 

We're talking about months, not years.

[example1]

Does Theo pay you to ballwash the team or are you a free equal opportunity sox ballwasher? That might be the funniest quote I have seen from you in a long time. And it wasnt intended to make me laugh

 

He's actually right' date=' that quote is full of BS.[/quote']

 

Am I the only one that thinks so? No, definitely not.

 

Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook

 

"Buchholz has a low-90's fastball that tops out at 95-mph, and it's just his third-best pitch. His 12-to-6 curve-ball and his changeup both rate as 70's on the 20-80 scouting scale and are better than anyone's on Boston's big league staff... Buchholz is Boston's best pitching prospect since Clemens and has everything he needs to become a No. 1 starter."

 

Do I think that 2008 changes that? No. I think Dojii showed a pretty good list of players who took a few years to develop. Buchholz K rate is consistently around 1 per inning, which means he makes people miss. His stuff is better than most pitchers in the majors.

 

Of course, time will tell; but I don't feel like I'm ballwashing because I think that Buchholz can be an all-star caliber pitcher.

[Dipre]

Am I the only one that thinks so? No, definitely not.

 

Baseball America's 2008 Prospect Handbook

 

"Buchholz has a low-90's fastball that tops out at 95-mph, and it's just his third-best pitch. His 12-to-6 curve-ball and his changeup both rate as 70's on the 20-80 scouting scale and are better than anyone's on Boston's big league staff... Buchholz is Boston's best pitching prospect since Clemens and has everything he needs to become a No. 1 starter."

 

Do I think that 2008 changes that? No. I think Dojii showed a pretty good list of players who took a few years to develop. Buchholz K rate is consistently around 1 per inning, which means he makes people miss. His stuff is better than most pitchers in the majors.

 

Of course, time will tell; but I don't feel like I'm ballwashing because I think that Buchholz can be an all-star caliber pitcher.

 

They're Yankee fans.

 

What else could you expect from them?

[diony]

"Buchholz has a low-90's fastball that tops out at 95-mph, and it's just his third-best pitch. His 12-to-6 curve-ball and his changeup both rate as 70's on the 20-80 scouting scale and are better than anyone's on Boston's big league staff... Buchholz is Boston's best pitching prospect since Clemens and has everything he needs to become a No. 1 starter."

 

He has 3 pitches that are each better than the best pitch of most MLB pitchers, with his fastball being the weakest.

 

Oh!

 

Most MLB average pitchers.

[example1]

Ohhhhhh no' date=' I think this team and this town have seen enough can't miss prospects miss completely to know better than to take this tack. We've lost whole generations of can't miss pitching prospects. Whither Brian Rose? Whither Frankie Rodriguez? Whither Casey Fossum and Abe Alvarez? [/quote']

 

Whither Brian Rose? Are you serious? Why don't you look up those guys' numbers before lecturing me about not getting overexcited. If Red Sox fans got hurt because they were excited about guys like Brian Rose and Frankie Rodriguez whose fault is that? Look at their numbers, they're not a whole lot to get excited about. Michael Bowden's numbers are as impressive.

 

Frankly that fastball has me scared. You canNOT just assume that Clay's other pitches will make up for a shoddy fastball. There's going to be games where the curve and change aren't there. Snyder had a really good curve too after all, and a 90+ fastball. Was a heck of a prospect once upon a time Didn't do him a lot of good because he couldn't place his fastball. Same problem Buchholz has.

 

No it isn't.

 

Career Milb #'s:

Snyder: 337.2 IP, 255 K, 320 H, 79 BB, 3.68 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Buchholz: 344 IP, 417 K, 252 H, 95 BB, 2.34 ERA, 1.01 WHIP

 

On 11-3-07 I wrote (Buchholz #'s updated with 2008 stats):

 

Example1:

Minor league career statistics:

Oswalt:

526 IP, (34 IP at AAA)

9.12 K/9

2.51 BB/9

 

Buchholz

285.2 IP (81.4 IP at AAA)

10.91 K/9,

2.48 BB/9

 

Santana

343 IP (49 at AAA, 0 at AA)

9.16 K/9

3.41 BB/9

 

Peavy

437 IP (none above AA)

11.28 K/9

3.17 BB/9

 

In terms of controlling WHIP (which is largely indicative of low ERAs) Buchholz makes more hitters swing and miss, and walks about the same amount as Roy Oswalt did at his age and is better than Santana was in both categories in his minor league career. Peavy struck out about as many at a younger age, but walked a few more (and racked up 437 IP before he was 23!!).

 

With 2008 included Buchholz still leads this group in both categories, and has far more IP at the AAA level than any of the others. Take it for what it's worth, but make sure you include Brian Rose, so we get a good comparison.

 

It's because I can see the problem being identified and addressed that I'm hopeful for the kid.

 

Me too.

 

But seriously, on the basis of strong command of his main offering and solid secondary stuff, I have to think Bowden is going to "get it" first. Clay will be along, eventually, but gun to my head, ask me who becomes a legitimate pitching star first bwtween Buck and Bowden, it's Bowden.

 

Good thing nobody goes around putting guns to peoples' heads to make decisions like that.

[example1]

Oh!

 

Most MLB average pitchers.

 

Oh! The "flawed logic" route to disprove my point, huh?

 

Given that you used that as your argument, you clearly accept the premise that his secondary stuff is better than anyone on Boston's staff. I figured that would be the hard part to prove. Thanks for granting it.

 

I think that Beckett, Lester and Dice-K have better secondary stuff than most pitchers in baseball. If Buchholz's secondary stuff is better than Beckett, Lester and Dice-K (which you granted), and those guys have better secondary stuff than those "most MLB pitchers" then Buchholz's secondary stuff is, by extension, better than most pitchers in baseball.

 

The list of MLB pitchers who have a better curveball or better changeup would be less than 30 IMO. The list of MLB pitchers who have BOTH a better curveball and better changeup would be less than 20.

 

Like Dojii said, the only piece he is missing is his FB, which has the velocity just not the command yet.

[Dojji]

Whither Brian Rose? Are you serious? Why don't you look up those guys' numbers before lecturing me about not getting overexcited. If Red Sox fans got hurt because they were excited about guys like Brian Rose and Frankie Rodriguez whose fault is that? Look at their numbers' date=' they're not a whole lot to get excited about. [/quote']

 

Those two were considered major pitching prospects and were in the bigs very quickly (probably rushed a little). In retrospect it didn't turn out so good --- but that's kind of my point, these things can only really get judged after the dust has settled.

 

Should mention, this was before the sabermetric era really got started and ERA was still considered the single most important stat for pitchers.

 

Michael Bowden's numbers are as impressive.

 

No, they aren't. Rose plowed through the minors without even slowing down, Bowden hit a rough stretch in AA.

No it isn't.

 

Career Milb #'s:

Snyder: 337.2 IP, 255 K, 320 H, 79 BB, 3.68 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Buchholz: 344 IP, 417 K, 252 H, 95 BB, 2.34 ERA, 1.01 WHIP

 

You're counting post-prospect numbers. That's a pretty serious sample in Snyder's case, especially because of some of the inuuries he suffered.

 

(Buchholz #'s updated with 2008 stats):

 

 

With 2008 included Buchholz still leads this group in both categories, and has far more IP at the AAA level than any of the others. Take it for what it's worth, but make sure you include Brian Rose, so we get a good comparison.

 

Yep yep, and the strikeout numbers are impressive. A big factor with Rose, Frankie and Snyder is that they were pushed pretty hard by their teams at the time, limiting the usefulness of the minor league sample.

 

One thing though. Old friend Casey Fossum would be right up with that quartet based on minor league numbers, escluding post-prospect numbers. Minor league numbers just don't mean that much.

[Dipre]

Oh!

 

Most MLB average pitchers.

 

You do know 70% of MLB pitchers are considered "average", thus if he has 3 pitches that are better than the out pitch of more than 50% of MLB pitchers, then he does 3 better pitches than most pitchers, since anything above 55% should be considered most, my yankee loving, gay phrase "Oh!" typing friend.

[example1]

Those two were considered major pitching prospects and were in the bigs very quickly (probably rushed a little). In retrospect it didn't turn out so good --- but that's kind of my point' date=' these things can only really get judged after the dust has settled. [/quote']

 

But I didn't stake my claim on Buchholz being "considered a major pitching prospect". I think he's considered such because his stuff is excellent, and because his stuff is excellent I think he will be a very good MLB pitcher. None of that has to do with the fact that he, along with Brian Rose, and Frankie Rodriguez, fits into the class of pitchers who are considered "major pitching prospects". How other people see him isn't my first concern.

 

Of course, when BA agrees that his stuff is top-notch I will quote it because I was being accused of being too subjective in my praise (not by you).

 

 

Should mention, this was before the sabermetric era really got started and ERA was still considered the single most important stat for pitchers.

 

What does that have to do with it?

 

No, they aren't. Rose plowed through the minors without even slowing down, Bowden hit a rough stretch in AA.

 

Rose plowed through the minors for the same reason that Sox fans 'thought' he was a good prospect. Their system sucked, and they always needed help on the big club. That isn't the case any more, so Bowden can go more slowly and develop better.

 

Perhaps the best comparison because Bowden is 'only' at AAA now is their AA numbers:

[table] Brian Rose |age 20 | 164 IP |115 K | 6.31 K/9 | 2.47 BB/9 | 4.01 ERA | 1.23 WHIP

Michael Bowden | age 20-21 | 200.3 IP | 183 K | 8.22 K/9 | 2.56 BB/9 | 3.28 ERA | 1.17 WHIP [/table]

 

 

It certainly looks like they're comparable to me, and I would rather have the guy with more K's and a better WHIP who has longer to develop.

 

You're counting post-prospect numbers. That's a pretty serious sample in Snyder's case, especially because of some of the inuuries he suffered.

 

Why not pull out your own numbers then? From all that I see, Snyder stopped striking out 1/IP after his first short-season A season at age 21 when he struck out 25 in 24 IP.

 

Yep yep, and the strikeout numbers are impressive. A big factor with Rose, Frankie and Snyder is that they were pushed pretty hard by their teams at the time, limiting the usefulness of the minor league sample.

 

So the only think you're basing your comment on is that these players were hyped by teams hungry for young pitching so Buchholz could be a disappointment?

 

One thing though. Old friend Casey Fossum would be right up with that quartet based on minor league numbers, escluding post-prospect numbers. Minor league numbers just don't mean that much.

 

When they're all we have then they should mean something. Especially when we haven't seen much of the players. In this case, I've seen a lot of Buchholz (and I'm sure you have too) and I'm comfortable saying his stuff justifies the impressive K numbers and very solid minor league WHIP.

 

He's not the second coming of Sandy Koufax, but--as I said above--I feel confident that he will be a very good MLB starter.

[TheKilo]

Kyle Snyder is a terrible comp...he got injured very early on in his career and never recovered.

[BSN07]

As much as Yankees fan's ballwashed Hughes, they have no room to blast anyone for believing in Buchholz.

[diony]

As much as Yankees fan's ballwashed Hughes' date=' they have no room to blast anyone for believing in Buchholz.[/quote']

 

Why not? Is fun, don't you guys bash Joba because of his health? Oh, and "he has 3 pitches that are each better than the best pitch of most MLB pitchers, with his fastball being the weakest" too.

 

Hughes is on better boat than Clay anyway.

[Dojji]

Kyle Snyder is a terrible comp...he got injured very early on in his career and never recovered.

 

Who he hell used the word "comp?" I was only comparing because he was once consdiered a can't miss prospect.

 

Carrying comparisons farther than the other guy clearly intends them to go is a form of cheap, intellectual dishonesty.

[Dojji]

So the only think you're basing your comment on is that these players were hyped by teams hungry for young pitching so Buchholz could be a disappointment?

 

Buddy, go back and read the post that started all this. I was talking about prospect hype to begin with You were the one who busted out the slide rule.

 

 

 

When they're all we have then they should mean something. Especially when we haven't seen much of the players. In this case, I've seen a lot of Buchholz (and I'm sure you have too) and I'm comfortable saying his stuff justifies the impressive K numbers and very solid minor league WHIP.

 

He's not the second coming of Sandy Koufax, but--as I said above--I feel confident that he will be a very good MLB starter.

 

When a guy can't place his fastball everything else is suspect. Until that problem is resolved no, I'm not completely sold on Buchholz and until it's resolved I do consider Bowden the better prospect as he's more fundamentally sound and has a better basis to work off -- one of Bowden's big selling points is fastball command.

 

Interested to see whether Buchholz might actually gain some velocity as that rail-thin frame of his fills out.

 

Once Buck masters the fastball he'll be a monster, but we're kidding ourselves if we think that's going to happen overnight. He's gonna struggle a bit, it's the nature of the beast. That said, he certainly is capable of having a great game at the big league level and I think thathis struggles just went to his head because he's a kid and isn't used to sucking. I think he'll turn that around sooner rather than later, as long as he also fixes his fundamentals issue.

[BSN07]

Why not? Is fun, don't you guys bash Joba because of his health? Oh, and "he has 3 pitches that are each better than the best pitch of most MLB pitchers, with his fastball being the weakest" too.

 

Hughes is on better boat than Clay anyway.

 

Yes I bash Joba, but I also respect his skills and potential even if he hasn't put it all together.

 

As far as the 3 pitches go, I'm gonna have to go with the scouts, seems how it is there job in all to determine these sort of things. Have you ever watched Clay pitch? His change up and Curve ball are right up there with the best in the game. And his fastball is his weakest pitch. Not for velocity reasons, but for location and consistency. He has much more control over his other pitches.

[italstallianion]

Since when was Hughes on a better boat than Buchholz?? This is certainly news to me...

[BSN07]

Since when was Hughes on a better boat than Buchholz?? This is certainly news to me...

 

Is it the same boat that Wright, Desavo, Kennedy, Henn, and Clippard all drowned on?

[Dojji]

Since when was Hughes on a better boat than Buchholz?? This is certainly news to me...

 

Indeed, especially since at least Buchholz remained generally healthy. Hughes is a good pitching prospect but Buchholz is a better one, at ieast until one, the other, or both put it all together and we can compare.

[diony]

Yes I bash Joba' date=' but I also respect his skills and potential [b']even if he hasn't put it all together. [/b]

 

As far as the 3 pitches go, I'm gonna have to go with the scouts, seems how it is there job in all to determine these sort of things. Have you ever watched Clay pitch? His change up and Curve ball are right up there with the best in the game. And his fastball is his weakest pitch. Not for velocity reasons, but for location and consistency. He has much more control over his other pitches.

 

Huh? He did that last year, but unfortunately he missed one month with a sore shoulder. You have the wrong concept of what 'putting it all together' means.

[Dojji]

I happen to believe that health is part of the "it" that you have to put all together.

[diony]

Indeed' date=' especially since at least Buchholz remained generally healthy. Hughes is a good pitching prospect but Buchholz is a better one, at ieast until one, the other, or both put it all together and we can compare.[/quote']

 

I never meant Buchholz was a better prospect. But Hughes is two years younger, so he has more chance to develop than him. The Yanks have 5 solid starters, and depth in the minors. But Buchholz is the depth until Bowden is ready, and well Smolthz in June.

 

At least I can use injuries as an excuse with Phil, what's your excuse for Clay's struggles?

[italstallianion]

I never meant Buchholz was a better prospect. But Hughes is two years younger, so he has more chance to develop than him. The Yanks have 5 solid starters, and depth in the minors. But Buchholz is the depth until Bowden is ready, and well Smolthz in June.

 

At least I can use injuries as an excuse with Phil, what's your excuse for Clay's struggles?

 

 

I wouldn't go that far. I doubt any of us would let you off the hook by simply saying that Hughes had "injuries"

[diony]

I happen to believe that health is part of the "it" that you have to put all together.

 

Missing one month with an injury counts as not putting all together?

[Dojji]

I never meant Buchholz was a better prospect. But Hughes is two years younger, so he has more chance to develop than him. The Yanks have 5 solid starters, and depth in the minors. But Buchholz is the depth until Bowden is ready, and well Smolthz in June.

 

At least I can use injuries as an excuse with Phil, what's your excuse for Clay's struggles?

 

Aforementioned Brian Rose was 21. So was Carl Pavano. And again, both of those two were top prospects in their time.

 

Being rushed doesn't help you. Having time to develop after your debut doesn't help you. Getting sent back down after your debut is enough of a mixed signal that it does more harm than good. You get a lot better results by making sure the guy is ready to play before you debut him -- which the Yankees did not do with Hughes.

 

Buchholz is in the same boat but only because of the Schilling injury. Original plan was to stash him in AAA and call him up if someone got hurt but someone was hurt right off the bat.

 

In other words, Hughes was rushed because of a failure to plan. Buchholz was rushed because the plan failed.

[TheKilo]

I never meant Buchholz was a better prospect. But Hughes is two years younger, so he has more chance to develop than him. The Yanks have 5 solid starters, and depth in the minors. But Buchholz is the depth until Bowden is ready, and well Smolthz in June.

 

At least I can use injuries as an excuse with Phil, what's your excuse for Clay's struggles?

 

How about the fact that he needed more time to adjust to MLB hitters?

 

No excuse needed.

[Paradisecity]

 

At least I can use injuries as an excuse with Phil, what's your excuse for Clay's struggles?

 

Well, if I had to think of an excuse, I would say that maybe Clay got caught up in all the partying and ass getting he enjoyed from helping his team win a World Series and pitching a no hitter as a rookie. Both of these obstacles are likely to be recurring for Buchholz, while Hughes will probably not have to worry about either one in his career. So I can understand why you think Hughes may have an easier time.

[Dipre]

Well' date=' if I had to think of an [i']excuse[/i], I would say that maybe Clay got caught up in all the partying and ass getting he enjoyed from helping his team win a World Series and pitching a no hitter as a rookie. Both of these obstacles are likely to be recurring for Buchholz, while Hughes will probably not have to worry about either one in his career. So I can understand why you think Hughes may have an easier time.

 

Brilliant.