Sox minor moves

[Dipre]

I agree completely' date='[b'] I can't see the Jays making a serious run for the foreseeable future [/b]and its in their best interest to get a king's ransom for Halladay

 

A good Halladay trade might speed the process up considerably though, because as you say, he is worth a king's ransom.

[BoSox21]

Whatever they get back wouldn't equal the value of having maybe the best pitcher in baseball, at least not right away

[Dipre]

Whatever they get back wouldn't equal the value of having maybe the best pitcher in baseball' date=' at least not right away[/quote']

 

Yeah, but getting an ace-potential pitching prospect and two big-time hitting prospects that maybe pan out, plus the return of McGowan and Marcum, and they may have a decent ballclub as soon as '10.

[BoSox21]

Decent? Yes. Contending? No.

[Dipre]

But you need to remember we're talking only about internal options that would open up after a Halladay trade, but if they were to pick up a couple of pieces through the FA market, they might be able to build a contending club, i mean, i know it's a longshot, but stranger things have happened.

[BoSox21]

The fact that ownership has put the team on a very strict budget doesn't help and when you consider that the Sox, Yankees and Rays are 3 of the best teams in baseball and all happen to be in their own division, a 90 win season very realistically only helps them beat out Baltimore

[Dipre]

The fact that ownership has put the team on a very strict budget doesn't help and when you consider that the Sox' date=' Yankees and Rays are 3 of the best teams in baseball and all happen to be in their own division, a 90 win season very realistically only helps them beat out Baltimore[/quote']

 

The budget constraints, i'll give you that, but with a 90-win club they might not make the playoffs, but they would be fighting for a spot all year long, and isn't that the definition of "contending"?

[Dojji]

And the ownership is right Bosox. The Jays just got set back about 2-3 yrs with these injuries. Halladay will be mid 30s in 3 yrs. He's 31 right now' date=' turns 32 in May. If he is dealt mid season, the bidding war would be fierce. I still dont see either NY or Boston being bidders though. I dont see them dealing in division[/quote']

 

Minor correction: They'll be bidders but they'd have to blow the competition out of the water for the Jays to be sanguine about giving them Halliday. Not that either of us wouldn't swoon at the prospect of Doc gracing our rotation.

 

Also are we forgetting David Wells for Rajah back in 2000?

 

The thing that makes me sick about all this Blue Jays stuff is that short of New York itself Toronto's the largest media market on the whole East Coast, easily beating out Boston and probably at least edging the greater Baltimore/DC area, and the Jays franchise has sole control of the entire Canadian baseball market. I know that Toronto is more of a NHL/CFL sports town but a good baseball team has called to Toronto fans many times in the past, and they've responded NO reason it can't happen again. Wiith the right ownership and GM they could be right up there with Boston/NYY easy.

[BoSox21]

But the Canadian dollar is struggling compared to the American one meaning the Jays have to spend that much more for free agents

[Dojji]

That's an excuse. It's not like anyone else is getting a bargain on FA's anyhow.

[Dipre]

And they did handcuff themselves quite a bit with that ridiculous contract they gave Vernons Wells.

[Rob_Zombie]

I am glad to get more than a rosin bag and some nice maple bats for Aardsma. He is a 1 month pitcher...If he is not hitting 97, he is meat.

 

I also like the Pauley transaction. I could never understand how he produced such stellar stats in AAA. He will never be more than a #5 and for the Sox..probably nothing more than an 8.

 

That's because....he didn't.

 

Pauley's MLEs show a guy who will have a K/BB ratio of 1.56 albeit with a lot of ground balls. You can last a couple of years in the majors with talent like Pauley's and if he gets lucky he'll have one outstanding year that will make him some money. But you won't last as a starter in the majors very long with a 1.56 K/BB no matter how many grounders you throw.

 

Pauley's basically a cheap place-holder for a year or two till some of the O's better pitching prospects are ready. Reminds me of John Doherty or Ryan Dreese.

[Dojji]

You're overrating MLE's a bit. They're at best a statistical divining rod. A slightly-less-than-completely-uneducated guess.

[italstallianion]

Yeah, I didn't see Pauley doing much for the Sox anyway. I'm not saying I really believe in Randor Beird, but it's at least worth a shot.

[BoSox21]

The FO has done a pretty good job in determining which pitching prospects to jettison anyway. Kason Gabbard hasn't done anything in Texas and after NL hitters had time to figure him out, Cla Meredith has done much either, Lenny DiNardo never amounted to anything and neither did Casey Fossum.

 

I can't imagine the departure of Pauley biting the Sox in the ass

[riverside sluggers]

With Tampa Bay now in the mix, a lot of things would have to go right for Toronto and Baltimore to have a chance. "A lot" is an understaement

[italstallianion]

It's not as much jettisoning as it is getting "boned" in trades. I mean whether Gabbard has done something for the Rangers or not, the fact that we gave him up, Murphy, and Beltre (ouch) for Gagne was abominable. I mean it's not that we "jettisoned" Gabbard, as that would imply we DFA'd him or something, but we definitely got boned in that trade.

 

On the other hand, to your credit many players haven't done well since leaving the Sox. Gabbard included, and in addition to DiNardo and Fossum, don't forget about Pedro, Trot Nixon, Garciaparra, Arroyo, Millar, and possibly Mueller. I'm not sure if Shea Hillenbrand would count either...

 

So even though the Sox got screwed in the Texas trade (and possibly the 3-way Manny trade) they've done a great job at leaving players at precisely the right time.

[riverside sluggers]

Millar wasnt an all star for the O's, but he was a good guy to have in that lineup.

 

Getting Jason Bay was a great coup for the FO, he quickly settled in with the Boston enviroment. Even had some big hits when it counted in the playoffs. The only question remains is will he remain a red sox past 09

[BoSox21]

It's not as much jettisoning as it is getting "boned" in trades. I mean whether Gabbard has done something for the Rangers or not, the fact that we gave him up, Murphy, and Beltre (ouch) for Gagne was abominable. I mean it's not that we "jettisoned" Gabbard, as that would imply we DFA'd him or something, but we definitely got boned in that trade.

 

On the other hand, to your credit many players haven't done well since leaving the Sox. Gabbard included, and in addition to DiNardo and Fossum, don't forget about Pedro, Trot Nixon, Garciaparra, Arroyo, Millar, and possibly Mueller. I'm not sure if Shea Hillenbrand would count either...

 

So even though the Sox got screwed in the Texas trade (and possibly the 3-way Manny trade) they've done a great job at leaving players at precisely the right time.

 

Good point, I forgot about Arroyo too. My point is that none of the pitching prospects the Sox part with whether it be through trade or DFA really seem to bite them in the ass and a lot of the guys they hold onto tend to turn out successful.

 

Yea, the Gagne trade sucked and I think it gave the FO a healthy respect for the importance of psyche to a closer.

[italstallianion]

Agreed, it was mainly hindsight that made the Sox look bad for the Gagne trade. At the time, it looked great. Gabbard, although good for the Sox, didn't have velocity and was expendable. Murphy looked like he'd be a backup OF at best, and very little was mentioned of Beltre. The Sox had led the Yankees by a few games and got a (previously) dominant closer in addition to Papelbon and Okajima with the intend of winning a lot of close games in the dog fight that was the AL East.

 

At the time, it looked like a reasonable deal, so I won't criticize the FO too much, as it was only hindsight that makes it look so bad.

 

Personally the only players that I think did well upon leaving the Sox besides Manny were Damon and Lowe. And that's rounding up a little bit. My point is that the Sox are very capable and efficient at evaluating their own talent and it's relative worth (in money or other players)

[jacksonianmarch]

how can you put Arroyo on that list? He's done exactly what everyone knew he would do when he went to Cincy. He isnt a top tier starter, but he eats innings. And in his 3 yrs in Cincy, he's thrown 651.1IP.

[a700hitter]

how can you put Arroyo on that list? He's done exactly what everyone knew he would do when he went to Cincy. He isnt a top tier starter' date=' but he eats innings. And in his 3 yrs in Cincy, he's thrown 651.1IP.[/quote']...and won 38 games for a crappy team.

[diony]

Arroyo is a good #5 starter pitching in the wrong ballpark.

[BoSox21]

how can you put Arroyo on that list? He's done exactly what everyone knew he would do when he went to Cincy. He isnt a top tier starter' date=' but he eats innings. And in his 3 yrs in Cincy, he's thrown 651.1IP.[/quote']

 

any manager can leave a pitcher out there as long as he wants but aside from 2006, he's sucked there and you can't argue he wouldn't have gotten pummeled in the ALE

[a700hitter]

any manager can leave a pitcher out there as long as he wants but aside from 2006' date=' he's sucked there and you can't argue he wouldn't have gotten pummeled in the ALE[/quote']Except for 2007, he's been very consistently effective since 2004. He's been the #1 or 2 pitchers for most of his time in Cincy, which is a ridiculous bandbox of a ball park. Coco hit a couple of Homers the weekend in Cincy. He has averaged 13 wins in his three seasons with the Reds out of the 1 or 2 spot. He'd be a very good 5th starter for almost any team. Bash him if you want, but he has performed better and his trade value is 1000 percent higher than the turd the Red Sox received in return for Arroyo.

[diony]

any manager can leave a pitcher out there as long as he wants but aside from 2006' date=' he's sucked there and you can't argue he wouldn't have gotten pummeled in the ALE[/quote']

 

What? He can't leave the pitcher out there for long if the pitcher sucks. IPs is one of the most important stats when evaluating pitchers. You seemed bring up IPs a lot when bashing Burnett .

 

Arroyo's HR/9

 

Sox

 

2004: 0.86

2005: 0.96

 

Reds

 

2006: 1.16

2007: 1.20

2008: 1.31

 

Is not a coincidence. And let's not forget the Reds horrible OF, with Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr.

 

I'm pretty sure the Sox could use a 200 IP guy with 4ish ERA on their #4 spot right now.

[italstallianion]

Except for 2007' date=' he's been very consistently effective since 2004. He's been the #1 or 2 pitchers for most of his time in Cincy, which is a ridiculous bandbox of a ball park. Coco hit a couple of Homers the weekend in Cincy. He has averaged 13 wins in his three seasons with the Reds out of the 1 or 2 spot. He'd be a very good 5th starter for almost any team. [b']Bash him if you want, but he has performed better and his trade value is 1000 percent higher than the turd the Red Sox received in return for Arroyo.

[/b]

 

 

True, but considering that you're talking about Willy Mo Pena, that's not saying much. There was another trade where we got boned...

[example1]

What? He can't leave the pitcher out there for long if the pitcher sucks. IPs is one of the most important stats when evaluating pitchers. You seemed bring up IPs a lot when bashing Burnett .

 

Arroyo's HR/9

 

Sox

 

2004: 0.86

2005: 0.96

 

Reds

 

2006: 1.16

2007: 1.20

2008: 1.31

 

Is not a coincidence. And let's not forget the Reds horrible OF, with Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr.

 

I'm pretty sure the Sox could use a 200 IP guy with 4ish ERA on their #4 spot right now.

 

 

Arroyo's salary is considerably more than this FO would be willing to pay him, his performance would be worse in the ALE, and he is easily replaceable. He will get 9.5 this year and 11 next year as part of a 2 yr/25m deal (w/ signing bonuses, etc.,). This FO can pick guys like Arroyo up off the scrap heap. In fact, if I remember correctly, that's where they got Arroyo.

 

I seriously doubt they're missing him much. They would much rather have 6 years of cost-controlled Masterson, Buchholz or Bowden available than an overpaid back-of-the-rotation SP like Arroyo. The only way a back of the rotation guy stays on this team is if he is willing to take a discount to do so, or if he is damanged goods who isn't getting what he would if healthy. Wakefield, Smoltz and Penny are all good examples.

 

They figured they would try to trade Arroyo for a high-upside guy like WMP. They swung and missed on that one, but Arroyo would have tested the FA waters already had he still been on this team. No way they were paying him 10m+ to pitch like he does.

[italstallianion]

Arroyo's salary is considerably more than this FO would be willing to pay him, his performance would be worse in the ALE, and he is easily replaceable. He will get 9.5 this year and 11 next year as part of a 2 yr/25m deal (w/ signing bonuses, etc.,). This FO can pick guys like Arroyo up off the scrap heap. In fact, if I remember correctly, that's where they got Arroyo.

 

I seriously doubt they're missing him much. They would much rather have 6 years of cost-controlled Masterson, Buchholz or Bowden available than an overpaid back-of-the-rotation SP like Arroyo. The only way a back of the rotation guy stays on this team is if he is willing to take a discount to do so, or if he is damanged goods who isn't getting what he would if healthy. Wakefield, Smoltz and Penny are all good examples.

 

They figured they would try to trade Arroyo for a high-upside guy like WMP. They swung and missed on that one, but Arroyo would have tested the FA waters already had he still been on this team. No way they were paying him 10m+ to pitch like he does.

 

 

 

Pun intended?

[example1]

Pun intended?

 

Hey, I'm not ducking it!