... and Smoltz is Not Far Behind

[a700hitter]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/

 

At $5.5 million for a 41 year old coming off surgery who will not be ready for opening day, this is not even a low cost move. He's a long shot to make any significant contribution in 2009.

[BoSox21]

who knows, he could surprise

[a700hitter]

We can hope.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Ewww

[The Dustball]

5.5 million guarenteed for an old, NL pitcher coming off of surgery who won't be with the team until late may AT BEST? Not my ideal move.

[BoSox21]

if there's a need for a spot-start in the middle of the summer, would you rather have Smoltz or Charlie Zink?

[Cocos Disciples]

Seems like a lot of money for 2/3 of a season (at best), but he's come back from injury before. I'm very intrigued.

[Dipre]

And everyone forgets the fact that he could be an impact pitcher off the 'pen if need be, as well.

[CrespoBlows]

Yeah, but if he's healthy he's an impact starting pitcher.

 

$5.5 million isn't too much to quibble about, considering that we saved over $180 million by not signing Teixeira.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

One setback, and he's gone.

[The Dustball]

if there's a need for a spot-start in the middle of the summer' date=' would you rather have Smoltz or Charlie Zink?[/quote']

 

Obviously Smoltz is the better pitcher when healthy but he's coming off a major injury and is 41 years and has spent his time in an inferiior league. The health is a HUGE question right and 5.5 mil is not a small amount to pay if the gamble doesn't pay off.

[BoSox21]

lets be honest about the money. where the f*** else are they gonna spend it at this point?

[The Dustball]

lets be honest about the money. where the f*** else are they gonna spend it at this point?

 

Eh, good point. I just think it's too much guarenteed money.

[a700hitter]

Yeah, but if he's healthy he's an impact starting pitcher.

 

$5.5 million isn't too much to quibble about, considering that we saved over $180 million by not signing Teixeira.

I agree about the money, but I am not very enthusiastic about the prospects of a post surgical 41 year old having much of an impact. They have Schilling in waiting for a half year. Are they collecting post surgical 40 year olds for the second half of 2009?

[Cocos Disciples]

Schilling isn't under contract.

[Dojji]

It's less than they paid for Schilling, and Smoltz probably has more left in his arm than Schill had in 2007 much less 2008

[a700hitter]

It's less than they paid for Schilling' date=' and Smoltz probably has more left in his arm than Schill had in 2007 much less 2008[/quote']The difference being that the FO didn't know Schilling was injured or needed surgery when they signed him. They gave him a physical before they signed him. This guy has had surgery. There's no guessing about his health. He is in post operative recuperation.

[BoSox21]

any team that needs to adds pieces to their puzzle through the free agent pitching market without wanting to give AJ Burnett $83 million pretty much needs to do these 1-year, incentive-laden contracts.

 

Some team will overpay for Sheets who isnt much more durable than Smoltz or Penny and some team will pay out the ass in prospects for Peavy

[Dojji]

The FO might not have known that Schilling wouldn't be able to pitch at all in 2008 but they had a pretty good idea how thin the ice they were walking on was. They did work significant performance and health incentives into that final deal exactly because they were worried about his health,

 

The upside with Smoltz is 20-25 starts by one of the more talented pitchers in the game. That's worth a heck of a lot more than 5.5M. The downside is you never see him. That's worth a heck of a lot less than 5.5M. Sort of suggests that if you balance risk and reward you're about in the right place.

[Cocos Disciples]

It's less than they paid for Schilling' date=' and Smoltz probably has more left in his arm than Schill had in 2007 much less 2008[/quote']

 

If we could get 2007 Schilling out of 2009 Smoltz, that's a huge steal. But we probably cannot.

[a700hitter]

Take the $5.5 million for Smoltz and $ 5 million for Penny and compare it to $13 million for Derek Lowe who will take the ball 35 times.

[example1]

I love this move. Smoltz's first time outside of ATL in his career. He will have something to prove. He's a competetor who, aside from his injury, was pitching like he was still a very valuable player.

 

In 2007 he was the 34th most valuable (WARP) player in the NL, ahead of players like Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, and Derek Lowe, winning 6.8 games above replacement. If he even contributes 4 or 5, or even if the combination of he and Penny win a combination of, say, 7, they will have outweighed their contracts IMO.

 

I've always liked Smoltz too, he's pretty no-nonsense.

 

I know it isn't as reliable or impressive as signing 2008 Sabathia or Burnett, but both Penny and Smoltz were all-stars in 2007 and finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting.

 

My understanding is that the Sox have seen him work out and he did okay.

 

He also has a 2.65 post season ERA in 207 IPs.

[example1]

Take the $5.5 million for Smoltz and $ 5 million for Penny and compare it to $13 million for Derek Lowe who will take the ball 35 times.

 

Then subtract the first round pick the Sox would give to LAD for buying Lowe, the 6 years of MLB control at minimal cost they would get from that pick, and add Lowe's 5.42 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in his last year in BOS and then do the 35 starts look as valuable? Maybe so, maybe not.

[a700hitter]

Then subtract the first round pick the Sox would give to LAD for buying Lowe' date=' the 6 years of MLB control at minimal cost they would get from that pick, and add Lowe's 5.42 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in his last year in BOS and then do the 35 starts look as valuable? Maybe so, maybe not.[/quote']It depends who they use the pick to draft. If it is another Craig Hansen, it's looking better.

[a700hitter]

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090107&content_id=3736434&vkey=news_bos&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

 

He's on a pace to return June 1 at the earliest. One or two setbacks, which always seem to happen in these cases, and he may never toe the Fenway rubber.

[example1]

It depends who they use the pick to draft. If it is another Craig Hansen' date=' it's looking better.[/quote']

 

Obviously. Let's check in in June, and then in subsequent years.

[Soxfan1]

I feel a bad joke making fun of the democrats coming.

[Taliesin]

I'm returning briefly for a cameo appearance to weigh in a bit on the frenzy of the past few months. 700, your analytical skills are spot on but

 

"When stuck in the river, it is best to dive and swim to the bank yourself before someone drops a large stone on your chest in an attempt to hoosh you there"

Eeyore

 

Everything that's happened this offseason will be fantastic for The Game. New enemies. I mean I enjoyed the whole Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy fiasco as much as the next....however: and, the last 7 years have been manna from the heavens. Nevertheless. No fun when there isn't the best rivalry in sports. 34 years of watching it. Last year was a snooze fest. It doesn't matter to me because there is magic in the game regardless. It's palpable on certain nights. Certain nights are electric. Other nights are just like life is. What do you want for dinner. What do you want to do. 3-1 loss. Wake up, get out of bed, throw a comb across your head.

 

162 games a year and the people who say baseball is boring are boring to me and I usually spend little time with those folk. It's the most perfect game. The arguments that fly around here are the arguments that have been flying around since there was a game. The continuity is amazing. I guarantee I could find a paper from 1915 with an editorial that supported the same hypotheses, statistical analysis, complaints and praise and blather that go around every day in every forum and every blog and every article you could ever read. Dose' Bums. Damn owners. How much in life is that constant. It's rhetorical. Every spring. Every October. The same.

 

And ya but....it doesn't matter. History is the marker. I'm very much looking forward to having another Yankee team to hate because they have been ...well kind of pathetic for a LONG time. No fun the other way. Sure, I've hated them, but lately I've hated them like you hate your drunk Uncle who shows up at Christmas and embarrasses everyone.

 

And then pees himself. And, then it is just sad.

 

I'm looking forward to hating them like the f***er cousin who think he knows everything and always wins..always gets praised. Adored.. while you're the red headed step child...and then someone finds out he's a fraud and always has been. And, then they stop talking about him again.

[See Red]

I'm returning briefly for a cameo appearance to weigh in a bit on the frenzy of the past few months. 700, your analytical skills are spot on but

 

"When stuck in the river, it is best to dive and swim to the bank yourself before someone drops a large stone on your chest in an attempt to hoosh you there"

Eeyore

 

Everything that's happened this offseason will be fantastic for The Game. New enemies. I mean I enjoyed the whole Phil Hughes/Ian Kennedy fiasco as much as the next....however: and, the last 7 years have been manna from the heavens. Nevertheless. No fun when there isn't the best rivalry in sports. 34 years of watching it. Last year was a snooze fest. It doesn't matter to me because there is magic in the game regardless. It's palpable on certain nights. Certain nights are electric. Other nights are just like life is. What do you want for dinner. What do you want to do. 3-1 loss. Wake up, get out of bed, throw a comb across your head.

 

162 games a year and the people who say baseball is boring are boring to me and I usually spend little time with those folk. It's the most perfect game. The arguments that fly around here are the arguments that have been flying around since there was a game. The continuity is amazing. I guarantee I could find a paper from 1915 with an editorial that supported the same hypotheses, statistical analysis, complaints and praise and blather that go around every day in every forum and every blog and every article you could ever read. Dose' Bums. Damn owners. How much in life is that constant. It's rhetorical. Every spring. Every October. The same.

 

And ya but....it doesn't matter. History is the marker. I'm very much looking forward to having another Yankee team to hate because they have been ...well kind of pathetic for a LONG time. No fun the other way. Sure, I've hated them, but lately I've hated them like you hate your drunk Uncle who shows up at Christmas and embarrasses everyone.

 

And then pees himself. And, then it is just sad.

 

I'm looking forward to hating them like the f***er cousin who think he knows everything and always wins..always gets praised. Adored.. while you're the red headed step child...and then someone finds out he's a fraud and always has been. And, then they stop talking about him again.

 

Very well said. Couldn't possible agree with the bolded part more than I do.

[jacksonianmarch]

I see the comment about Smoltz returning from injury before. That was TJ, something that has become a right of passage nowadays. Smoltz had rotator cuff surgery, which is a deathknell for many a pitching career. Especially for a player as old as Smoltz. That being said, its a move to provide depth, and depth is good. I guess the sox are hoping that either Penny or Smoltz could be the #4 in the rotation and if both come back as useful players then so be it. I do think there is a 50/50 likelihood that neither come back well enough to be useful.