Plan B

[example1]

I think you got a little too defensive there. All good though' date=' made me laugh [/quote']

 

He's very selective about his criticism. Glaring weaknesses on the Sox are completely tolerated on the Yankees. Obvious places of likely decline on the Sox are overlooked or assumed non-existant on the Yankees. It's lame.

 

Ellsbury's 6.4 WARP value last year despite a long period of struggle, tells me that the CF position for the Sox is in good shape and protected from offensive struggle. Pedroia might decline? Yeah, but he's 24 years old. Do a lot of 24 year old's hit their peak and then predictably decline? What statistical analysis did Jacksonian use that the Sox FO didn't use, when they decidedc to sign him for 6 more years? A lot of reasonable of people expect improvement as young players age. They don't assume decline.

 

Is Youkilis bound to decline, due to last season's increase? I think we've seen in other posts that Youkilis has changed his approach at the plate and is more aggressive. His power spike seemed natural to me, given the ABs he had the years before (having watched hundreds and hundreds of his PAs) and his 'warning track power' the years before.

 

Lester? Was his stuff somehow unconvincing? Meanwhile Wang and Burnett are both injury hounds and make up 2 of the top 3 in the Yankees rotation. Their most valuable player is a 39 year old closer... I could speculate too, but it's a waste of time.

 

You should have noticed I don't spend much time talking s*** about the Yankees or lamenting the Sox not being as good. I'm much more in the "let's see how this plays out" area. I get sick of reading posts talking s*** and then throwing out a bunch of speculative ********. We can all speculate on which team is better, it doesn't carry any weight when there hasn't been a pitch thrown.

[jacksonianmarch]

example, quit whining. We've beaten this dead horse a million times. The sox had a ton of overachievers last yr, well above their baseline performance, and they need to prove they can maintain this level of performance before you pencil them in for whatever they did last yr. We had a lot of underperformers last yr and when you consider their baselines, you should expect them to get closer to them rather than stay at the new, lower level of performance. Its regression to the mean.

[jacksonianmarch]

 

Example1 doesn't get what? The s*** load of speculation you just put on the table? That would be like me saying "Jacko doesn't get it, as usual. A-Rod could die, Jeter could get hit by a bus, Yankee Stadium could collapse under the weight of the raised expectations". What a stupid comment.

 

speculation that players eventually regress to the mean and only a select few outperform prior performance and stay there? Yeah, I'm breaking new ground here (this is sarcasm).

 

 

Sure, I get that next season could be worse than last year. Does that apply to the Yankees or Rays too, or just the Sox? Next point...

 

Depends on whose healthy and if the Rays can keep up what they did last yr, which I think they could since they dealt with some serious injuries to some key players. I do think the yankees SIGNIFICANTLY improved, though.

 

Tell me Jacko, "replace what Manny was doing", what do you mean?

 

How many wins do you think Manny actually contributed while he put up decent numbers and pulled himself out of games?

 

This is the biggest f***ing joke of all. He's a great player, nobody denies that. But let's actually look at what he did, instead of pretending he's some Hollywood Starlet whose box office draw equates to wins on the field.

 

WARP

2002: 8.3

2003: 8.0

2004: 7.0

2005: 6.7

2006: 5.9

2007: 4.7

2008: 4.5-partial season

 

Manny is an extremely consistent and reliable hitter. He's not irreplaceable. The fact that he got to LA and immediately put up 1999 numbers tells me that he was slacking, started juicing (for a contract), or just got hot against weak NL pitching. It certainly tells me he wasn't injured.

 

 

Manny was a presence. He was feared. He was pitched around. And he forced the other team to pitch to the player he was protecting (Ortiz). Now Youks did a damn good job in that 4 hole, but he isnt Manny. Sorry, Manny is a first ballot HOFer who was probably one of the top 3 right handed hitters of the last 25 yrs or so (Frank Thomas, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez). You dont replace that, especially when he is still producing to a prime level. And you can use all the stats you want to use. His worth to the sox was way more than any WARP you throw this way. He had 6 consecutive yrs where his OPS was .982 or higher in Boston (8 overall if you count CLE). He had one down yr in 07, but was back up to the .927 pace prior to the part of the season that he consistently dominates (the back half). I am sorry, adding Jason Bay or switching youks to the 4 hole doesnt make up for that.

 

The point is, you should really quantify things with me Jacksonian. I'm not someone who is convinced by "Manny was so intimidating, and he was good, so take that, now he's gone, ha ha!". He had 4.7 wins above replacement in 2007. Remember when the Sox lost that year? I don't. I remember your ass sitting at home, silently observing the Sox game because you didn't have anything you could say. You had to zip it. Manny wasn't the savior that year, he was just a good player. He is replaceable.

 

Everyone will need to be replaced from time to time. But unless you pry ARod from Hank's cold dead hands, you wont get the same production and presence out of one player. Manny isnt a guy you replace with one player. And the sox proved that. The entire lineup around Manny improved last yr making it much easier for a deal to be struck. If those guys regress to the mean, then Manny's loss will be magnified 200 fold.

 

 

The catcher slot was a disaster last year and this team did very well. Wrong Jacko.

 

The CF slot "regressed something fiece [sic] from June on last year" yet the player who played there offered more wins (again, quantifying this) than everyone on the Yankees not named Rivera, A-Rod or Mussina. So he would have been the 4th most valuable player on your team last year. Why aren't you talking s*** about the inherent weakness of Cano, Jeter, Joba, Wang, Matsui, or Melky? They all had worse seasons, and none-aside from Joba- were rookies. Ellsbury was largely healthy, he played the whole year and won 6.4 games above margain and, by that measure, was the Sox 5th most valuable player last year--tied with Papelbon, who also blows. Wrong Jacko.

 

you are a sensitive little lass arent you? You use WARP. I think its useful at times, but it highly overestimated Ellsbury's worth to the team. His post May performance was abysmal. He had half the walks from June on that he had in the first two months. His OBP plummeted. THAT is what is useful for him. And he wasnt useful from June on. I'll get to the rest of your bitching later. I have to work for the next 30 hours.

[italstallianion]

Just for the record, why do we have a token Yankee fan on here anyway?? Is that to improve PR?

[BSN07]

Just for the record' date=' why do we have a token Yankee fan on here anyway?? Is that to improve PR?[/quote']

 

There are alot of Yankees fans here. That's why they have their own section as well. Keeps things balanced around here. Makes for good entertainment.

[ORS]

example' date=' quit whining. We've beaten this dead horse a million times. The sox had a ton of overachievers last yr, well above their baseline performance, and they need to prove they can maintain this level of performance before you pencil them in for whatever they did last yr. We had a lot of underperformers last yr and when you consider their baselines, you should expect them to get closer to them rather than stay at the new, lower level of performance. Its regression to the mean.[/quote']

No, you've been beating this drum ever since you've been emboldened by the Yankees' offseason signings. What you have failed to do is establish that we do indeed have a baseline for any of the players in question. Your "ton" is, per your own post upthread, 3 players. They are all young and still developing. Only one has reached prime years, but an identified change in approach appears to be the cause for his "overachievement".

 

You can shout "regression to the mean" until you are blue in the face, but it means nothing until we know where the mean is.

[Dipre]

example' date=' quit whining. We've beaten this dead horse a million times. The sox had a ton of overachievers last yr, well above their baseline performance, and they need to prove they can maintain this level of performance before you pencil them in for whatever they did last yr. We had a lot of underperformers last yr and when you consider their baselines, you should expect them to get closer to them rather than stay at the new, lower level of performance. Its regression to the mean.[/quote']

 

I'll need some statistical evidence that justifies your shouts of "over achievement" on the part of every Sox player you have mentioned.

 

You know, BABIP, FB/GB ratio, anything that suggests that last year were "freak" statistical years, instead of just the typical growth or change in approach that young players typically experience during their developmental years.

 

All things said, i think you're just being a douche as usual, and you're (and other yankee fans) cry of over performance are unsubstantiated because of a lack of a big enough sample size to establish a "career path" for any of these players except Youk, whose power spike has actually been explained by one of your fellow Yankee fans as a change of approach instead of a "freak" year.

 

So yes, either give me some solid evidence or:

 

http://images.icanhascheezburger.com/completestore/2008/6/22/gtfoandtakeur128586621619036707.jpg

[BSN07]

Don't let Jacko's personal views and hopes get you wound up. Of course hes hoping Youk is a fluke, and the Pedroia has reached his physical limits, Ellsbury is a bust, Lester is a one year wonder, Beckett doesn't regain form, all the Sox FA signings fall through, and a meteor hits Yawkey way. Jacko will find some stat, report or what have you to justify his views. Thus making it easier for him to sleep at night.

 

 

I mean if you saw your rival spending money wisely, locking up key homegrown talent, drafting quality players, wouldn't you be worried too?

 

 

Jacko is always going to Poo Poo anything the Sox do. If you understand this going in, it makes his post's entertaining instead of annyoing.

[jacksonianmarch]

so you truly think that Pedroia is gonna hit 20+ homers next yr? Wouldnt that be an improvement seeing as he's a young player and young players typically progress instead of regress?

 

And the "young" Kevin Youkilis suddenly established a new career baseline at 29? Cmon now. Look at his history. He was drafted in 01. His only season where he had 300+ ABs and a .900+OPS was 2003 in AA and after a promotion he was awful. THe most homers he hit in a season was the 16 from 2007. You expect him to continue this new trend even though he has 6.5 seasons showing a consistent low .800s OPS baseline. You're delusional.

 

 

We arent talking about two guys with room to grow. Duddy is 5'9 and swings from his toes in every AB and the HR balls barely get out. Its not like he's hitting towering shots here or that he's a physical specimen strong enough to hit a ball out of the park while barely making contact. He is not the kind of guy who you expect their power to translate on a yr to yr basis. His BA is very impressive, but name me any player since Tony Gwynn whose been consistently above .330 yr in and yr out. Thats the precedent you are setting if you think Duddy is gonna progress. You're saying that he could be a consistent .330BA 20HR hitter and I dont see it due to sheer size and due to the rarity of a consistent .330 hitter.

 

I'm not breaking new ground here. I think that both players will have trouble replicating their 2008 seasons. And any grounded, level headed sox fan would agree with this statement.

[Dipre]

so you truly think that Pedroia is gonna hit 20+ homers next yr? Wouldnt that be an improvement seeing as he's a young player and young players typically progress instead of regress?

 

And the "young" Kevin Youkilis suddenly established a new career baseline at 29? Cmon now. Look at his history. He was drafted in 01. His only season where he had 300+ ABs and a .900+OPS was 2003 in AA and after a promotion he was awful. THe most homers he hit in a season was the 16 from 2007. You expect him to continue this new trend even though he has 6.5 seasons showing a consistent low .800s OPS baseline. You're delusional.

 

 

We arent talking about two guys with room to grow. Duddy is 5'9 and swings from his toes in every AB and the HR balls barely get out. Its not like he's hitting towering shots here or that he's a physical specimen strong enough to hit a ball out of the park while barely making contact. He is not the kind of guy who you expect their power to translate on a yr to yr basis. His BA is very impressive, but name me any player since Tony Gwynn whose been consistently above .330 yr in and yr out. Thats the precedent you are setting if you think Duddy is gonna progress. You're saying that he could be a consistent .330BA 20HR hitter and I dont see it due to sheer size and due to the rarity of a consistent .330 hitter.

 

I'm not breaking new ground here. I think that both players will have trouble replicating their 2008 seasons. And any grounded, level headed sox fan would agree with this statement.

 

No one is saying they'll both replicate their 2008 seasons, we're just saying they'll continue to provide above-average level of production,not suddenly turn into Cesar Izturis and Scott Hatteberg,and because no player "replicates" a given season, then your statement is wrong even in its nature.

 

And again, you keep running your fingers without giving us any type of statistical evidence or at least a worthwhile empirical analysis, you're all like "Pedroia is 5'9, he won't hit 20 homers" with drool running down your chin, and IMHO, if you can't provide with any type of proof that either player will SURELY regress in 2009, then i suggest you STFU.

[ORS]

I'm still waiting for him to explain what the power baseline for a developing 24 y/o should be. I'm still waiting for him to explain how we treat a change in approach from a player in his peak with respect to his power projection. I'm still waiting for an explanation of how we can know the "mean" toward which the regression will occur when we are talking about a young pitcher who has found the plate. Instead, I get, "He's 5'9"!!!one"

[BSN07]

He only says things like this to get everyone wound up.

 

 

When he thinks his argument is legit, he backs it up with anything he can find. When he's just being a pain in the ass and he doesn't have anything more to go on the personal opinion, we get the he's 5'9" babbel.

[Dojji]

Jimmy Rollins is 5'8"

 

lolwut?

[riverside sluggers]

Pedroia's homeruns barely get out... well the green monster seats (which are 37 feet from the ground) I guess make it seem that way. He got lucky on getting those 17 Hrs then. The Sox are foolish for signing Pedroia and Youk to these extensions because its all downhill from here!!

[Dojji]

Oh definitely. Disregard the monster contact skills, two consecutive near-batting-title performances, and the 20 stolen bases with only 1 caught stealing in 2008. Pedroia will never consistently hit 20 HR's, and that's an absolute requirement for a big league second baseman. Bad deal for the Sox.

[riverside sluggers]

Plus his gold glove was a one year wonder because he's overrated like Jeter

 

EDIT:

 

For kicks here is the calcualted average of 2008 2nd baseman (min 500 plate appearances)

 

145 games- 158 for 558 (.283 avg) (.375 obp) (.437 slg) (.812 ops) 33 Doubles, 4 Triples, 15 Hrs, 58 RBIs, 88 Runs, 51 Walks, 86 Ks, 14 SBs (5 CS)

[italstallianion]

Plus keep in mind that Pedroia and Youkilis are probably steroid users and wife-beaters so we shouldn't have any business signing them in the first place. And you can't forget that they are communist spies that give the Yankees information about the Red Sox so the Yankees will win.

[jacksonianmarch]

No one is saying they'll both replicate their 2008 seasons, we're just saying they'll continue to provide above-average level of production,not suddenly turn into Cesar Izturis and Scott Hatteberg,and because no player "replicates" a given season, then your statement is wrong even in its nature.

 

And again, you keep running your fingers without giving us any type of statistical evidence or at least a worthwhile empirical analysis, you're all like "Pedroia is 5'9, he won't hit 20 homers" with drool running down your chin, and IMHO, if you can't provide with any type of proof that either player will SURELY regress in 2009, then i suggest you STFU.

 

I never said they'd turn into an Izturis. I think both will be above average offensive players. I just dont think either will be as good as they were in 09

 

And ORS, cmon now. You are waiting for a statistical metric as to why Pedroia wont develop more power than 17 homers per yr. Thats just an assinine comment. He's small, very small. And expecting him to be a consistent 20 homer force is a farce in and of itself. You dont need to quote stats because you typically dont see too many guys the stature of Pedroia hitting double digit taters. There isnt a baseline for what he did.

[ORS]

"Come on now?" Geez, all that's missing is a "pretty please, with sugar". What about him hitting 13 HR as a 21 y/o in AA and AAA the year he injured his wrist? What about the year and a half or longer you always talk about vis a vis wrist injuries and power? All I know is this, I don't care how big someone is, when I see him hit 17 at 24 and I see him hit the ball hard as consistently as Pedroia does, and he still has body to fill out, I'm not ruling out 20.

 

Now, let's step back a moment, I believe the "overachievement" in question here is the .050 pts of SLG, is it not? I don't recall asking you to disprove why Pedroia can hit 20 HR. What I want to know is how you establish a baseline for a player who is 24 and still improving (whether it be by becoming more familiar with the league or by improvement of his physical capability). I'm genuinely curious, because I don't know where you set it. What I'm quickly learning, as I suspected all along, is neither do you.

[a700hitter]

I never said they'd turn into an Izturis. I think both will be above average offensive players. I just dont think either will be as good as they were in 09

 

And ORS, cmon now. You are waiting for a statistical metric as to why Pedroia wont develop more power than 17 homers per yr. Thats just an assinine comment. He's small, very small. And expecting him to be a consistent 20 homer force is a farce in and of itself. You dont need to quote stats because you typically dont see too many guys the stature of Pedroia hitting double digit taters. There isnt a baseline for what he did.

I was a huge Doubting Thomas when it came to Pedroia. I watched him for a week in ST in 2007 and I was convinced that he'd never be much more than an average second baseman. After watching him day in and day out for two years, I acknowledge that I was completely wrong. This guy will find ways to adapt and perform at a vey high level no matter what adjustments the opposition makes. Maybe he doesn't hit 20 HRs or even 15 HRs in 2009, but I wouldn't doubt that he could hit .360 for the season with 50+ Doubles. The only thing that could keep that kid down would be an injury. I'm knocking on wood.

 

As for Youkilis, if he continued the offseason training that he started in 2008, I see no reason why he can't produce at the same levels as 2008. It's far from freakish that a player comes into his own at age 28-29. Yaz was a 15 HR 80 RBI guy until he was 28. He started an off season strength and conditioning program, and won the Triple Crown at age 28. He also hit 40 HRs and drove in more than 100 runs for 3 of the next 4 years. Barring injury, (knocking on wood), there is no reason Youk cannot maintain his 2008 performance level.

[italstallianion]

I agree. It's not like Pedroia or Youkilis are in their mid to late 30's and are putting up 1 good year before they revert to a life of mediocrity. Outside of a beginning cup of coffee, Pedroia has been brilliant, although not consistently within the season, he's been consistently brilliant between seasons. (if that makes sense)

 

Sure Youkilis seemed to have a statistical outlier this year, but with all of his walking numbers going down and his power numbers increasing, his numbers make sense. It's not as if pitcher threw him better pitches than other batters or it's not that the ball necessarily bounced Youkilis's way. I personally predict that Youk may take a step back in 2009, but he seemed to change his philosophy at the plate which has seemed to improve his power numbers.

 

I don't see Pedroia taking a step back however. He might not hit as many homeruns, but I think he'd have another great year. Both players give it their all and I see them having full and reasonably (knock on wood) above average numbers. I don't really see Pedroia taking a step back, he may even move forward if he can spend less time in that super funk he occasionally winds up in.

[Redguitar985]

I was a huge Doubting Thomas when it came to Pedroia. I watched him for a week in ST in 2007 and I was convinced that he'd never be much more than an average second baseman. After watching him day in and day out for two years, I acknowledge that I was completely wrong. This guy will find ways to adapt and perform at a vey high level no matter what adjustments the opposition makes. Maybe he doesn't hit 20 HRs or even 15 HRs in 2009, but I wouldn't doubt that he could hit .360 for the season with 50+ Doubles. The only thing that could keep that kid down would be an injury. I'm knocking on wood.

 

As for Youkilis, if he continued the offseason training that he started in 2008, I see no reason why he can't produce at the same levels as 2008. It's far from freakish that a player comes into his own at age 28-29. Yaz was a 15 HR 80 RBI guy until he was 28. He started an off season strength and conditioning program, and won the Triple Crown at age 28. He also hit 40 HRs and drove in more than 100 runs for 3 of the next 4 years. Barring injury, (knocking on wood), there is no reason Youk cannot maintain his 2008 performance level.

 

Pedroia I doubt will be hitting cleanup every year now after the season he had in '08, but I agree that he will still be an offensive force with a high average every year.

 

Youkilis I can totally see continuing the trend he started last year. He's a fixture in the lineup who will play every day, and his second-half struggles seemingly are behind him.

[BSN07]

•Industry sources tell Rosenthal that the Red Sox have kept their payroll flexible in case mid and low-revenue teams need to dump contracts.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9112648/Don't-be-foolish,-the-Yankees-aren't-done-yet

 

 

I kinda like the approach. There isn't a sure thing out there at the moment. But like I have stated before, given the current economy, some players that weren't available in Nov-Dec, might be available now.

 

 

There might be some moves we never even considered. Or maybe nothing comes of it, and the team goes with what they got. That be fine too. With Catcher being reolved of course.

[Dojji]

Some good examples of things that could happen there:

 

If we wind up needing a starter, we might get a decent price for some very good starting pitchers. Gil Meche of the Royals springs to mind as an excellent example, especially if the Royals want to free up his salary to pay Greinke, which would be a good move for them. Scoring Erik Bedard might be a low-priced coup as well if the Mariners finally decide to actually regroup the way they need to. And for a third option, the Padres' Chris Young might be a victim of further restriction of that market. If the price is right you might even be able to score Haren or Webb from Arizona -- less likely since those two would form a good rebuilding nucleus for a team and so might be the last pieces moved.

 

For position players, the list starts with Michael Young, who is already rumored to be available. Carlos Guillen is a good candidate to be dealt by the Tigers as they could probably get along nearly as well without him and his huge contract. Wouldn't be too surprised if they come out of the gate slowly to see the Tigers shopping Magglio Ordonez around as well. The Mariners will likely part with Adrian Beltre, or at least you'd think so considering how bare the market for third basemen is and how far they are from contending right now. And of course, the A's will trade anyone. I wouldn't be too shocked to see the name of Lance Berkman showing up in trade rumors at the deadline either if the Astros are out of it, since Berkman's their best trade piece and the Astros are several pieces away from contention.

 

The big opportunity I see if the market does stay bad though is the opportunity to make a deal with the Guardians for Victor Martinez. I really expect to see legitimate talks between those two clubs for VMart's services, especially if VMart lights it up and Kottaras really doesn't.

 

One thing though -- I do not expect this to impact the Rays to any great degree. The fans rallying around a winner will make up for any further economic pinch from Tampa. This probably won't affect the pennant race this year in other words.

[Dipre]

"Come on now?" Geez, all that's missing is a "pretty please, with sugar". What about him hitting 13 HR as a 21 y/o in AA and AAA the year he injured his wrist? What about the year and a half or longer you always talk about vis a vis wrist injuries and power? All I know is this, I don't care how big someone is, when I see him hit 17 at 24 and I see him hit the ball hard as consistently as Pedroia does, and he still has body to fill out, I'm not ruling out 20.

 

Now, let's step back a moment, I believe the "overachievement" in question here is the .050 pts of SLG, is it not? I don't recall asking you to disprove why Pedroia can hit 20 HR. What I want to know is how you establish a baseline for a player who is 24 and still improving (whether it be by becoming more familiar with the league or by improvement of his physical capability). I'm genuinely curious, because I don't know where you set it. What I'm quickly learning, as I suspected all along, is neither do you.

 

Jacko needs to get ready, since he'll need two father's day gifts this year seeing how ORS has become his daddy in this board.

[italstallianion]

Jacko needs to get ready' date=' since he'll need two father's day gifts this year seeing how ORS has become his daddy in this board.[/quote']

 

Props.

[Dipre]

Props.

 

Hey, the truth needs to be told.

[Redguitar985]

Some good examples of things that could happen there:

 

If we wind up needing a starter, we might get a decent price for some very good starting pitchers. Gil Meche of the Royals springs to mind as an excellent example, especially if the Royals want to free up his salary to pay Greinke, which would be a good move for them. Scoring Erik Bedard might be a low-priced coup as well if the Mariners finally decide to actually regroup the way they need to. And for a third option, the Padres' Chris Young might be a victim of further restriction of that market. If the price is right you might even be able to score Haren or Webb from Arizona -- less likely since those two would form a good rebuilding nucleus for a team and so might be the last pieces moved.

 

For position players, the list starts with Michael Young, who is already rumored to be available. Carlos Guillen is a good candidate to be dealt by the Tigers as they could probably get along nearly as well without him and his huge contract. Wouldn't be too surprised if they come out of the gate slowly to see the Tigers shopping Magglio Ordonez around as well. The Mariners will likely part with Adrian Beltre, or at least you'd think so considering how bare the market for third basemen is and how far they are from contending right now. And of course, the A's will trade anyone. I wouldn't be too shocked to see the name of Lance Berkman showing up in trade rumors at the deadline either if the Astros are out of it, since Berkman's their best trade piece and the Astros are several pieces away from contention.

 

The big opportunity I see if the market does stay bad though is the opportunity to make a deal with the Guardians for Victor Martinez. I really expect to see legitimate talks between those two clubs for VMart's services, especially if VMart lights it up and Kottaras really doesn't.

 

One thing though -- I do not expect this to impact the Rays to any great degree. The fans rallying around a winner will make up for any further economic pinch from Tampa. This probably won't affect the pennant race this year in other words.

 

If we traded for Berkman at the deadline, we'd have him under our control until next year with an option for 2011. Two plus years of 30 HRs/100 RBIs with .300 average? I say yes.

 

I agree, Haren and Webb are a stretch since Arizona basically just rebuilt, and I doubt they have any desire to sell off and start rebuilding again. They'd have to get really bad.

[italstallianion]

The Astros are a 2nd half team though, so I'm not sure they'd be that put off with some struggling in the first half. They'd have to be WAY out of it before they think about trading anyone.

[BSN07]

The Astros are a 2nd half team though' date=' so I'm not sure they'd be that put off with some struggling in the first half. They'd have to be WAY out of it before they think about trading anyone.[/quote']

 

They would try and move Lee before anyone IMO.