Where the Moneyball Meets the Road

[a700hitter]

Really?

 

So you mean structuring a contract for a guy like Pedroia so his AAV during his Arb. years to be around $4 or $5 mill, when he could EASILY beat 6 or 7, and reach as much as 10 in his last year, and also buy out at least 2 years of free agency which would come at around 12+ mill per year, and you're overpaying?

 

Well ok then, buddy.

 

Then if we go by your logic then i don't see why every team around the majors is doing it.

I didn't say that you were overpaying for the life of the contract. They will be overpaying him for this season. He could get injured etc. I questioned whether the savings in the later years when balanced by overpaying in the earlier years is worth the fact that for most of these years the players are still in their formative years. Very few guys hit the ground running like Pedroia. Those who become immediate stars usually don't sign away their FA years. Extending Ellsbury wouldn't be such a great idea, because he may not fully develop for 2 or more years. Let's not use the freak case of Pedroia as the standard. They extended Nomar before he was Arb eligible and overpaid for the early years and had to endure years of inactivity due to injury in his early FA years, so nothing was saved. Would you extend Papelbon for 6 years to capture his first 2 years of FA? He could blow his arm out in year two and you'll have overpaid for the last 4 years. As a cost savings strategy, for each two players where it pays off, there might be another guy who goes bust. Where's the big cost savings?

[a700hitter]

Why is he an exception?

 

If you have elite young talent and you lock them up for the long term, how can it not make sense?

 

If Pedroia is an exception, then do you sugeest not locking up Lester, Youk and Paps?

 

Because those 3 are also on the upper echelon of talent, and would make a load of money through arb. and their first FA contracts.

But Youk isn't going to sign on the cheap... is he? IMO the Sox will not take a chance on Papelbon's shoulder for 6 years even at a reduced rate. The Sox extended Beckett and got one good year from him out of two so far. They underpaid for 1 year and overpaid for 2008. Let's see how he performs the rest of the way before we determine whether or not the Sox got value by the early extension.

[Dipre]

I didn't say that you were overpaying for the life of the contract. They will be overpaying him for this season. He could get injured etc. I questioned whether the savings in the later years when balanced by overpaying in the earlier years is worth the fact that for most of these years the players are still in their formative years. Very few guys hit the ground running like Pedroia. Those who become immediate stars usually don't sign away their FA years. Extending Ellsbury wouldn't be such a great idea' date=' because he may not fully develop for 2 or more years. Let's not use the freak case of Pedroia as the standard. They extended Nomar before he was Arb eligible and overpaid for the early years and had to endure years of inactivity due to injury in his early FA years, so nothing was saved. [b'] Would you extend Papelbon for 6 years to capture his first 2 years of FA?[/b] He could blow his arm out in year two and you'll have overpaid for the last 4 years. As a cost savings strategy, for each two players where it pays off, there might be another guy who goes bust. Where's the big cost savings?

 

Yes i would, if the price is right, although Paps has 3 years of ML experience, so in order to buy out his first 2 arb years, you'd extend him for 5, not 6.

 

Also, how is his "blowing his arm out" a deterrent to locking him up long term?

 

If you don't wanna shell out FA contracts, then you lock up your young talent, but in turn, it's not like big-money FAs or players acquired through trade from small market teams can't blow out their arms either, effectively canceling your argument.

[a700hitter]

Yes i would, if the price is right, although Paps has 3 years of ML experience, so in order to buy out his first 2 arb years, you'd extend him for 5, not 6.

 

Also, how is his "blowing his arm out" a deterrent to locking him up long term?

 

If you don't wanna shell out FA contracts, then you lock up your young talent, but in turn, it's not like big-money FAs or players acquired through trade from small market teams can't blow out their arms either, effectively canceling your argument.

Papelbon has a medical history that is not the greatest. He has a misplaced ulnar nerve that causes him to have a constant tingling in his hand. He has a loose shoulder joint that has popped out once already. Papelbon has a track record of getting fatigued at the end of the season. Other pitchers are more durable and are worth the risk of a long term investment.

[Dipre]

Papelbon has a medical history that is not the greatest. He has a misplaced ulnar nerve that causes him to have a constant tingling in his hand. He has a loose shoulder joint that has popped out once already. Papelbon has a track record of getting fatigued at the end of the season. Other pitchers are more durable and are worth the risk of a long term investment.

 

Name two other elite closers under the Red Sox' control who are more worthy of the investment.

[a700hitter]

Name two other elite closers under the Red Sox' control who are more worthy of the investment.

Just because there are no other closers worthy of investment doesn't mean that you offer Papelbon a 5 year $40- 45 million deal. He has a bad medical history.

[a700hitter]

For the FO to declare that Free Agency is not the way to go is short-sighted. Sometimes a player comes along who will transform a franchise. Manny was that type of player. He transformed he red Sox offense into a wrecking crew. The Sox had to blow away the market to get him, but he was worth it. He was a once in a generation type of hitting talent.

[Dipre]

Just because there are no other closers worthy of investment doesn't mean that you offer Papelbon a 5 year $60 million deal. He has a bad medical history.

 

If you offer him a 5 year $60 million deal, then you just gave him a FA contract, that's where "buying years" comes into play, so you don't have to pay an AAV to a player who has not reached FA, as if he already had, just look at Soriano and Howard, who received massive paydays during their arbitration years (Howard still in it), but in the case of Soriano, he made a lot of money before FA, and landed a top-20 all-time contract after he became a FA.

 

Bottom line, if you have a very good player in your hands, avoiding arbitration and delaying FA is the way to go, not with a $60 million contract as you state, because that would just be silly.

[a700hitter]

If you offer him a 5 year $60 million deal, then you just gave him a FA contract, that's where "buying years" comes into play, so you don't have to pay an AAV to a player who has not reached FA, as if he already had, just look at Soriano and Howard, who received massive paydays during their arbitration years (Howard still in it), but in the case of Soriano, he made a lot of money before FA, and landed a top-20 all-time contract after he became a FA.

 

Bottom line, if you have a very good player in your hands, avoiding arbitration and delaying FA is the way to go, not with a $60 million contract as you state, because that would just be silly.

I edited my post. Don't get caught up in hypothetical dollar amounts being thrown around on this forum. The bottom line is that Papelbon will not get 5 years because of his medical history unless it is steeply discounted, in which case, he'll play out his arbitration years and go FA.

[example1]

How big of an advantage is it to extend the player before they reach FA status? You end up overpaying them in the earlier years when you would have had control over them. You really only get a bargain for 1 or tops 2 years when they would have been eligible for FA. I don't see the big advantage. I am in favor of poaching players developed by teams like the Marlins' date=' Kansas City, etc.[/quote']

 

I see a big advantage. I notice you didn't say that you favor poaching players developed by teams like the D-Rays. Why? Because the Rays have locked up their players longterm.

 

Kazmir: locked through 2012

Shields: locked through 2014

Price: locked through 2012

Longoria: Locked through 2016 (at 11.5m in 2016)

Garza and Upton: both have 4+ years left before FA

 

It looks to me like the Rays were able to lock up their star talent long term, without having to spend at FA cost and keeping their team competitive throughout.

 

It seems like a no-brainer to me. They don't have to throw away dollars to young talent if they have a solid veteran in that position, but it is certainly useful when looking for trades, or trying to solidify player for the long term.

 

Also, your adoration of Manny's talent is warranted, but if the Sox didn't have the other FA pieces and trade pieces, then they don't win even with Manny.

[a700hitter]

I see a big advantage. I notice you didn't say that you favor poaching players developed by teams like the D-Rays. Why? Because the Rays have locked up their players longterm.

 

Kazmir: locked through 2012

Shields: locked through 2014

Price: locked through 2012

Longoria: Locked through 2016 (at 11.5m in 2016)

Garza and Upton: both have 4+ years left before FA

 

It looks to me like the Rays were able to lock up their star talent long term, without having to spend at FA cost and keeping their team competitive throughout.

 

It seems like a no-brainer to me. They don't have to throw away dollars to young talent if they have a solid veteran in that position, but it is certainly useful when looking for trades, or trying to solidify player for the long term.

 

Also, your adoration of Manny's talent is warranted, but if the Sox didn't have the other FA pieces and trade pieces, then they don't win even with Manny.

Locking up Longoria was a smart move. He is one of those transformational players for a franchise. Kazmir is already experiencing arm problems. His velocity is way down, and he completely abandoned his slider (his out pitch). Price's contract will run out just as his Arbitration Eligibility will kick in, so I don't see what they have saved with him. With regard to Shields... only time will tell. Baldelli was locked up to a multi year contract. That didn't work out too well. For every two times it works well, there is usually one bust.

[Dojji]

Just because there are no other closers worthy of investment doesn't mean that you offer Papelbon a 5 year $40- 45 million deal. He has a bad medical history.

 

He has one mishap that was brought on by overuse and an otherwise 100% clean bill of health including 2 healthy seasons of more innings than he pitched in his injury year. Surround him with a decent bullpen and don't expose him with stupid roster decisions and it's unlikely to be a problem in the near or intermediate future.

[a700hitter]

He has one mishap that was brought on by overuse and an otherwise 100% clean bill of health including 2 healthy seasons of more innings than he pitched in his injury year. Surround him with a decent bullpen and don't expose him with stupid roster decisions and it's unlikely to be a problem in the near or intermediate future.

His ulnar nerve is out of place and it has been since he dislocated his elbow in senior year of High School. Unless you are an orthopedic specialist, you are not authorized to give him a clean bill of health. The fact is that his displaced ulnar nerve gets irritated throughout the season. That can't be a good thing.

[Dipre]

His ulnar nerve is out of place and it has been since he dislocated his elbow in senior year of High School. Unless you are an orthopedic specialist' date=' you are not authorized to give him a clean bill of health[/b']. The fact is that his displaced ulnar nerve gets irritated throughout the season. That can't be a good thing.

 

But are you one to so "accurately" predict that he will, in fact, be the victim of a major injury in the next 5 years?

[a700hitter]

But are you one to so "accurately" predict that he will' date=' in fact, be the victim of a major injury in the next 5 years?[/quote']I am not predicting any such thing. I am saying that he has a bad medical history, which he does. Based on that history, IMO the FO would be reluctant to give him a 5 year contract.

[a700hitter]

But are you one to so "accurately" predict that he will' date=' in fact, be the victim of a major injury in the next 5 years?[/quote']I am not predicting any such thing. I am saying that he has a bad medical history, which he does. Based on that history, the probability of injury increases. IMO the FO would be reluctant to give him a 5 year contract.

[example1]

My guess is that Papelbon will want to be the highest paid closer in baseball when he is a FA and the Sox will not pay him, given their belief that they can come up with someone who is (some percentage) as good as Papelbon, for 1/20th the difference. If he were asking for a reasonable amount of money then I'm sure they would be happy to sign him to a longer deal. There's always room in the pen for a reasonably cheap arm. He won't be reasonably cheap, so they won't offer him anything longterm.

[example1]

Theo was named executive of the year by Baseball America. Good article:

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/awards/executive-of-the-year/2008/267270.html

[TheKilo]

This is an interesting thread. From my understanding, I think we're trying to evaluate what the FO is going to do to strengthen the team not just for 2009 but for the next decade.

 

The problem I am having with this FO and their "plan" is consistency. It's clear they have aversions to long term deals for position players and pitchers alike - and that is not a bad thing at all. I have no problem with roster flexibility.

 

The problem comes in the fact that the Red Sox are the second most profitable team in all of baseball and will continue to make money at an alarming pace. The Red Sox are recession-proof. There will always be money flowing on Yawkey Way. I can understand a billionaire like JWH being apprehensive devoting that serious coin to Teixeira, but if people making far less than him are willing to sell out Fenway for every home game for the foreseeable future, then he needs to have a damn good reason for not spending their money.

 

If you're not going to spend money on big time FAs, then they need to pump even more money into their player development and scouting departments. There's no excuse to not sign any of their draft picks if they aren't going to pony up for big FA contracts. The issue with this policy is that following 2009, we will be without their left fielder and after 2010, their corner infielders. Where are their replacements coming from? Do we really think they're going to pay Youkilis $20 million plus? Why? It would go against their supposed policy of not doling out big contracts to FAs. I can't come up with any rational explanation as to why they would give Youkilis that money and not Teixeira. I don't think Youkilis will be able to be a 3B for much longer, I'm not sure his body will allow him to do so after being a 1B for such a prolonged period of time.

 

The thing I am beginning to really struggle with is the fact that the Sox are not using their financial resources to put the best product on the field. They are not working on extensions for Bay, Youkilis, or Papelbon. They got extremely lucky that Pedroia signed to an affordable contract following an MVP season, comparable to Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria. If those two won MVPs this season, do you think they'd sign the same deal? I don't - for every Pedroia there's hundreds of other players that want to follow the dollar signs.

 

I think the biggest fault of the FO and a lot of people on this board is to assume that since the Red Sox made game 7 of the ALCS with an injured squad, they'll rebound and still be a 95 win team when everyone comes back next season. In a vacuum, sure, the improvements should be a great help - and they should, but the Rays are going to get better and the Yankees improved substantially. The Rays will get a full, healthy season of BJ Upton and David Price in their rotation. The Yankees close the 5 game gap between the Sox and themselves, surpassed it even (IMO).

 

It's frustrating to see a team, and an ownership group, with the incredible resources at their disposal, not make use of them. I've asked this question many times on this board - but if you're not going to spend bigtime FA dollars on a guy like Mark Teixiera, who are you going to spend it on? I have no interest seeing this team become a big market Marlins, Pirates, or Royals. Spend money. Improve the team.

[example1]

This is an interesting thread. From my understanding, I think we're trying to evaluate what the FO is going to do to strengthen the team not just for 2009 but for the next decade.

 

The problem I am having with this FO and their "plan" is consistency. It's clear they have aversions to long term deals for position players and pitchers alike - and that is not a bad thing at all. I have no problem with roster flexibility.

 

The problem comes in the fact that the Red Sox are the second most profitable team in all of baseball and will continue to make money at an alarming pace. The Red Sox are recession-proof. There will always be money flowing on Yawkey Way. I can understand a billionaire like JWH being apprehensive devoting that serious coin to Teixeira, but if people making far less than him are willing to sell out Fenway for every home game for the foreseeable future, then he needs to have a damn good reason for not spending their money.

 

If you're not going to spend money on big time FAs, then they need to pump even more money into their player development and scouting departments. There's no excuse to not sign any of their draft picks if they aren't going to pony up for big FA contracts. The issue with this policy is that following 2009, we will be without their left fielder and after 2010, their corner infielders. Where are their replacements coming from? Do we really think they're going to pay Youkilis $20 million plus? Why? It would go against their supposed policy of not doling out big contracts to FAs. I can't come up with any rational explanation as to why they would give Youkilis that money and not Teixeira. I don't think Youkilis will be able to be a 3B for much longer, I'm not sure his body will allow him to do so after being a 1B for such a prolonged period of time.

 

The thing I am beginning to really struggle with is the fact that the Sox are not using their financial resources to put the best product on the field. They are not working on extensions for Bay, Youkilis, or Papelbon. They got extremely lucky that Pedroia signed to an affordable contract following an MVP season, comparable to Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria. If those two won MVPs this season, do you think they'd sign the same deal? I don't - for every Pedroia there's hundreds of other players that want to follow the dollar signs.

 

I think the biggest fault of the FO and a lot of people on this board is to assume that since the Red Sox made game 7 of the ALCS with an injured squad, they'll rebound and still be a 95 win team when everyone comes back next season. In a vacuum, sure, the improvements should be a great help - and they should, but the Rays are going to get better and the Yankees improved substantially. The Rays will get a full, healthy season of BJ Upton and David Price in their rotation. The Yankees close the 5 game gap between the Sox and themselves, surpassed it even (IMO).

 

It's frustrating to see a team, and an ownership group, with the incredible resources at their disposal, not make use of them. I've asked this question many times on this board - but if you're not going to spend bigtime FA dollars on a guy like Mark Teixiera, who are you going to spend it on? I have no interest seeing this team become a big market Marlins, Pirates, or Royals. Spend money. Improve the team.

 

First of all, solid, coherent post Kilo. A few points, if I may:

 

1) I agree with you completely about the draft picks and consistency. Alex Meyer wants 3m and the Sox offer 2m? I admit, it's a s*** load of money, but not compared to what he will get at his first extension as a 1st round pick for (insert non-Red Sox team here). That s*** doesn't make any sense to me. Part of the reason I made this post was because I'm curious whether the Teixeira deal will ultimately push them to do that.

 

Is it possible that they are avoiding all type-A free agents so they can draft the absolute best prospects, and sign every single one of them without delay? FWIW, they have signed every top 10 round pick for the past 4 years, except for Hunter Morris in the 07 draft. Also, I think it is important to note that they have dropped 1.8m on Tazawa and 1.5m on Almanzar in the past two years as well. They should double their efforts in this respect, and sign every single player that they want.

 

 

2)

The thing I am beginning to really struggle with is the fact that the Sox are not using their financial resources to put the best product on the field. They are not working on extensions for Bay, Youkilis, or Papelbon.

 

I think they are putting the best product on the field, and that not spending a lot of money on guys like Youkilis who have two years of arbitration left doesn't seem too incompatable with the 'rational' approach to contract offering. If they signed him to 15m/yr deals and he ends up injured for whatever reason, then they are burdened with that deal and can be criticized for it. They have a little room left in his case. Papelbon has said directly that he wants to become a FA. I don't know what to expect from that. I do know that teams can be lulled into overspending on a closer, even when the job of a closer (usually coming into a game with nobody on and a lead) is replaceable. I think Papelbon is a special closer, but he's clearly got his eyes on the prize.

 

 

3)

I think the biggest fault of the FO and a lot of people on this board is to assume that since the Red Sox made game 7 of the ALCS with an injured squad, they'll rebound and still be a 95 win team when everyone comes back next season.

 

They may or they may not. I think that objectively they have a solid team from top to bottom They also have some things to figure out (#5 pitcher, C, backup OF) but not things that should ultimately make the difference. If they play well they could make the playoffs. That said, this could be a ONE playoff-team division next year, with the three top teams beating on each other. The AL Central may ultimately benefit.

 

Personally, I'm not going to cry if they don't make the playoffs and I will be excited if they do. I don't think the FO is assuming that because last year happened, this year they will get there. I think we can hope for better performances from Beckett, Buchholz, Ellsbury and Lowrie (i.e., the shortstop position). I think we can expect a better performance from the catching position, and, frankly, the 08 team actually UNDERPERFORMED based on their pythag. I see reason to think this will be a competitive team, but every year in baseball is filled with surprises.

 

4)

if you're not going to spend bigtime FA dollars on a guy like Mark Teixiera, who are you going to spend it on? I have no interest seeing this team become a big market Marlins, Pirates, or Royals. Spend money. Improve the team.

 

I don't think that spending money always improves the team. We agree with the importance of drafting. I think the type of money you are talking about is on expensive FAs, which means that somehow the Sox are at fault for having traditionally expensive positions covered by young, inexpensive talent: 1B, CF, LF, CP, #5 starter, which was their goal all along. They could easily have a payroll 30m higher than they do currently, but they wouldn't be as good, IMO. They could have Johnny Damon in CF for 14m per-season, not covering enough ground; they could have spent 13m (or whatever) on K-Rod, because they could have traded Papelbon for a 'proven star', they could have spent money to get Mike Cameron or some other expensive, 'proven' CF, but they have developed from within.

 

I think the money you're talking about is ultimately somewhere between what they have allocated currently, and what they usually spend ($120-$130m).

 

Otherwise, I'm glad you find the topic interesting. You make some good points and you and I are in complete agreement about needing to sure up their minor league picks. Matt Laporta and Alex Meyer should be at the top of the board at Soxprospects, along with a number of other people who I don't even know about . You will get no disagreement from me: if they're truly going to develop their machine then there's no reason to hold back over 3m here or 4m there.

 

EDIT: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/12/28/search_party/?page=5

 

article re: Sox farm spending, development

[a700hitter]

My guess is that Papelbon will want to be the highest paid closer in baseball when he is a FA and the Sox will not pay him' date=' given their belief that they can come up with someone who is (some percentage) as good as Papelbon, for 1/20th the difference. If he were asking for a reasonable amount of money then I'm sure they would be happy to sign him to a longer deal. There's always room in the pen for a reasonably cheap arm. He won't be reasonably cheap, so they won't offer him anything longterm.[/quote']Papelbon is as close as Mo Rivera in a Red Sox uniform as anything I have seen in since Dick Radatz. He's got the perfest closer demeanor. He's got the dominating stuff, and he always throws strikes. I think the only thing holding the Sox back from signing him long term is his medical history. If he stays healthy for a couple of more years, then I maybe they will conclude that he is durable despite his past medical history and sign him to a long term contract. After the way the idiot Yankee fans treated him and his wife during the All Star break, hopefully we will never have to watch him in pinstripes.

[BSN07]

At this point I don't ever see the Yankees out on anyone in the FA market, Papelbon or whoever. And if Papelbon goes for the $, then the Yankees are a real possibility. Papelbon is an intense competitore and adrealine junky. The Yanks can provide the rush of closing on the big stage like at Fenway+ the $ he seeks. So I wouldn't consider myself shocked if he wears pinstripes at some point. And I'm not trying to be synical. Only realistic.

 

 

I agree Kilo, I don't see the Sox giving that much $ to Youk either.

[a700hitter]

So I wouldn't consider myself shocked if he wears pinstripes at some point. And I'm not trying to be synical. Only realistic.

Just reading this makes me gag and throw up in my mouth.

[BSN07]

Just reading this makes me gag and throw up in my mouth.

 

Ya it sucks, but have you seen anything to make you think it isn't plausable? IMO ANY Red Sox player to hit the FA market over the next couple years has the chance of wearing pinstripes. To deny it is pointless.

 

 

A labor strike might be the only thing that stops it( on the assumption the strike is because of the owners wanting a salary cap LOL)

[TheKilo]

First of all, solid, coherent post Kilo. A few points, if I may:

 

1) I agree with you completely about the draft picks and consistency. Alex Meyer wants 3m and the Sox offer 2m? I admit, it's a s*** load of money, but not compared to what he will get at his first extension as a 1st round pick for (insert non-Red Sox team here). That s*** doesn't make any sense to me. Part of the reason I made this post was because I'm curious whether the Teixeira deal will ultimately push them to do that.

 

If they are really going to avoid spending huge money on big name FAs, then they absolutely have to do this. I have zero issue with doing so because it could mean you develop your own talent (ie a Pedroia, Papelbon, Youkilis) or you use prospects to lock up young talent via trade (Sanchez/Ramirez for Beckett/Lowell).

 

The issue you run into doing this is that you lock up a lot of money (relatively) for a prospect that may not be MLB-ready now or will ever be (Craig Hansen, anyone?) This brings a lot of risk in it as well because these guys, while "underpaid" are not MLB-proven at all, vs. overpaying for talent that may not live up to the duration of the contract.

 

If they're going to go the scouting and development route, then scenarios like Alex Meyer cannot and should not happen at all. Like you said, the top of soxprospects should be filled with names like Matt LaPorta, Michael Inoa, and Alex Meyer.

 

Is it possible that they are avoiding all type-A free agents so they can draft the absolute best prospects, and sign every single one of them without delay? FWIW, they have signed every top 10 round pick for the past 4 years, except for Hunter Morris in the 07 draft. Also, I think it is important to note that they have dropped 1.8m on Tazawa and 1.5m on Almanzar in the past two years as well. They should double their efforts in this respect, and sign every single player that they want.

 

Complete agreement.

 

 

2)

 

I think they are putting the best product on the field, and that not spending a lot of money on guys like Youkilis who have two years of arbitration left doesn't seem too incompatable with the 'rational' approach to contract offering. If they signed him to 15m/yr deals and he ends up injured for whatever reason, then they are burdened with that deal and can be criticized for it. They have a little room left in his case. Papelbon has said directly that he wants to become a FA. I don't know what to expect from that. I do know that teams can be lulled into overspending on a closer, even when the job of a closer (usually coming into a game with nobody on and a lead) is replaceable. I think Papelbon is a special closer, but he's clearly got his eyes on the prize.

 

Youkilis is a double-edged sword. If you let his contract run out to become a true FA, then there's no way they will sign him to any sort of a team friendly deal. I think the proper avenue would be to offer him a JD Drew type contract - 5 years, 70-80 million dollars. There is absolutely risk involved with buying out the last few years of arbitration - but that seems to be counterbalanced by signing him to a lower AAV than he would get if he hits FA.

 

Papelbon is a different animal - he's got three years left before FA. I have no problem making him earn his paycheck the next three seasons - But just in case, I'd offer him 4/50 after next season if he makes it completely healthy. I find it difficult to believe Papelbon would get much more than $12.5 million on the FA market - KRod just got that exact same AAV, for less years, after setting the save record.

 

 

3)

 

They may or they may not. I think that objectively they have a solid team from top to bottom They also have some things to figure out (#5 pitcher, C, backup OF) but not things that should ultimately make the difference. If they play well they could make the playoffs. That said, this could be a ONE playoff-team division next year, with the three top teams beating on each other. The AL Central may ultimately benefit.

 

They will be a solid team. Right now - they're the third best team in the division, and I don't think anyone can really dispute that. The Yankees have surpassed them - they're getting a Cy-Young caliber pitcher to replace Mike Mussina, and AJ Burnett to replace Sidney Ponson. They're getting a GG-caliber 1B to replace the statute they had before. They are a much better team - there's no disputing that. The Rays added Matt Joyce (completely underrated move) and will have BJ Upton and David Price for 162.

 

In a vacuum, the Sox look to be a very good team. When taking the other teams in the division into context, they have not lived up to their end of expectations, especially as the 2nd richest team in baseball. Luckily, they still have time.

 

Personally, I'm not going to cry if they don't make the playoffs and I will be excited if they do. I don't think the FO is assuming that because last year happened, this year they will get there. I think we can hope for better performances from Beckett, Buchholz, Ellsbury and Lowrie (i.e., the shortstop position). I think we can expect a better performance from the catching position, and, frankly, the 08 team actually UNDERPERFORMED based on their pythag. I see reason to think this will be a competitive team, but every year in baseball is filled with surprises.

 

See above - I'm not saying they won't be competitive, I'm not saying they'll tank - right now they look like an 88-90 win team which will be good for 3rd place in the division this season. That doesn't get you into the playoffs, which should be the goal for this team every season.

 

All I'm asking in consistency in the way they'll get there. It's becoming clearer, now they need to execute.

 

4)

 

I don't think that spending money always improves the team. We agree with the importance of drafting. I think the type of money you are talking about is on expensive FAs, which means that somehow the Sox are at fault for having traditionally expensive positions covered by young, inexpensive talent: 1B, CF, LF, CP, #5 starter, which was their goal all along. They could easily have a payroll 30m higher than they do currently, but they wouldn't be as good, IMO. They could have Johnny Damon in CF for 14m per-season, not covering enough ground; they could have spent 13m (or whatever) on K-Rod, because they could have traded Papelbon for a 'proven star', they could have spent money to get Mike Cameron or some other expensive, 'proven' CF, but they have developed from within.

 

I think the money you're talking about is ultimately somewhere between what they have allocated currently, and what they usually spend ($120-$130m).

 

I'm glad they didn't sign Johnny Damon, KRod, or Mike Cameron. Mark Teixeira is exactly the guy you spend that kind of coin on. The fact they cry poverty after losing out to Teixeira is completely disingenuous - this guy was their first priority all offseason, and they lost the bidding by $12 million. Now they want to swear off big name FAs forever, and say the Yankees are ruining baseball? Don't buy it.

 

Otherwise, I'm glad you find the topic interesting. You make some good points and you and I are in complete agreement about needing to sure up their minor league picks. Matt Laporta and Alex Meyer should be at the top of the board at Soxprospects, along with a number of other people who I don't even know about . You will get no disagreement from me: if they're truly going to develop their machine then there's no reason to hold back over 3m here or 4m there.

 

EDIT: http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2008/12/28/search_party/?page=5

 

article re: Sox farm spending, development

 

Yeah - good thread. This is exactly what was needed - I need to understand the direction this FO wants to go in.

 

I don't necessarily agree with it 100%, but we'll see where it goes.

[ydeologi]

For what it's worth, some articles today say that Tex's wife never liked the idea of playing in Boston, and that he personally had concerns about what would happen to Mike Lowell (both if he stayed or if he was traded away). I wonder how early on the Yankees really expressed their interest?

[jacksonianmarch]

A lot of these stories are being siphoned out of the sox media stew. From all reports, Tex was a 100% through and through Boras client. Top dollar was all he was after and he got it in NY

[example1]

A lot of these stories are being siphoned out of the sox media stew. From all reports' date=' Tex was a 100% through and through Boras client. Top dollar was all he was after and he got it in NY[/quote']

 

That's why Boras said "raise it by 10m" and then called them back and said "he'll take it" without contacting the Red Sox? Why was Teixeira signed so quickly before Christmas? Because he said he wanted to be signed by Christmas?

 

So Boras clients get

a) the money and nothing but the money and

signed by any arbitrary date they set

 

but they DON'T get:

 

c) any preference about where they play

 

 

You are telling me that if the Angels had come in with 185m he's be on the West Coast. I got it now, thanks for that newsflash.

 

Honestly, above a certain amount of money I bet Boras clients get to make choices about things that would make them and their family happy.

[jacksonianmarch]

You dont sign on with Boras if you intend on taking a lesser valued contract UNLESS there is another potential moneymaker involved (endorsements). By signing with Boras, you essentially say, I am gonna go to the highest bidder. Very few players actually turn down the highest offer when Scott is their agent.

[Dipre]

You dont sign on with Boras if you intend on taking a lesser valued contract UNLESS there is another potential moneymaker involved (endorsements). By signing with Boras' date=' you essentially say, I am gonna go to the highest bidder. [b'] Very few players actually turn down the highest offer when Scott is their agent.[/b]

 

And how would we know if Tex wasn't one of those "very few players"?