Where do you see this team in 3 years?

[Dojji]

Since Theo Epstein has said in the past that he plans to make the postseason 4 seasons out of 5, that indicates that his offseason effforts are clearly designed not just for the next year, but for the next multiple years. Specifically for the season after the current opne but his MO involves projecting a player for the life of his contract and making as sure as he can that the later years of a deal are still serviceable and effective -- no end of contract dropoff like the Yankees just had to eat in the last few years with Mussina, Giambi and others and like they've set themselves up for with Jeter, A-Rod and Matsui.

 

With that in mind, let's expand our horizon out past the next 365 days and take in the next 3 years.

 

To open the discussion I'll ask, then do my best to answer, three questions.

 

1: Who do you see on our roster in 3 years? Both free agent signings and prospect projections are welcome as answers.

 

2: Do you still see us contending as well and as forcefully as we did this year in 2011?

 

3: Will Theo and Tito still be employed by the Sox in 2011?

 

My answers:

 

1: This will be an easier question to answer when we know who our catcher is. All of our catching prospects are at volatile points in their careers, including probably our best C prospect Luis Exposito, who just hit well in A+ ball but with a low OBP, not usually a good sign.

 

I see Bay re-signed or replaced by a similarly competent offensive player, possibly Holliday or Dunn. I see at least one of Buchholz, Bowden and Masterson claiming a pivotal spot in the rotation. Lester, Matsuzaka, and Beckett (re-signed) anchor the staff in some order. I see the bullpen not changing a great deal from year to year with the possible exception of Oki's role being reduced as he ages (although Oki's brand of soft-tossing lefties tend to age fairly well). If RamRam makes it as a Red Sox reliever there won't be a lot of moves we need to make.

 

Other than left field and possibly SP the only place I see us making a big personnel splash is catcher, either now with Salty or later when Mauer gets too expensive for the Twins (Yanks are gonna be on that one unless Montero pans out though because by then Posada certainly won't be behind the plate).

 

I do see some trouble if we lose key players. Especially if we use Youkilis. This organization is very weak at third base with only Lowrie and Navarro projecting to do decently well at that position within the 3 year window. Retaining Youk is a must. Losing him to injury is a disaster. If the chance comes along to snag a decent 3B to succeed Youk or solve a situation caused by his inability to move back to 3B you have to take it.

 

2: Answer is yes, if. We need to not have players take big steps backwards. I'm especially looking at Beckett, Daisuke, Lester, Youkilis, Lowell, Ortiz and Pedroia, who all for one reason and another stand reasonable chances of producing less than they did in 2008 and most of whom would be difficult to replace properly. If they play at the level they're capable of I see no problem giving this team a 90-win floor most seasons.

 

3: I see no reason why not. Theo Epstein is one of our most successful GM's ever in terms of actual wins, losses, and playoff berths. And health permitting Tito is possibly history's greatest Red Sox manager. There's a lot of little things they do that get on our nerves but if you step back and look at things you realize that that's just because they're so successful we can't ignore them. It's like having a hot wife with a handful of annoying quirks. SOmetimes you get hung up on the quirks and do or say something stupid but most of the time if you're smart you just realize how lucky you are. And if you'rte dumb, say hello to the alimony judge.

[jacksonianmarch]

In 3 yrs? So right before the 2012 season?

 

Gone- Papi, Lowell, Tek, Beckett, Youkilis, Drew, Bay, Papelbon

 

Up and coming- Lars at 1b, either Kalish or Redick in the OF with Ellsbury, and a bunch of moneyball, but low money mercs to fill the holes until the farm fills in the rest. Lester and DiceK leading a rotation filled with Bowden and a bunch of other kids on the list.

 

In 2012, I expect to see a VASTLY different, cheaper and younger sox team. They will reboot and then start to fill in with more mercs later on. The reason why I see Paps gone is because he wants to set a record for closers and the sox dont need to give him 14-15 mil a yr. I also think Youkilis is gone either way. The sox arent willing to pay him long term for what could be a career yr. And if Youkilis replicates his 2008, he wont want to sign long term when he could get Tex money. I also dont see the sox willing to offer CC money to Beckett when they have DiceK and Lester locked up for good money.

[Dojji]

I disagree with you about Youk and possibly Papelbon. Youks is going to be a priority for the Sox unless Almanzar does a lot better in the next 3 years than he's done so far. The whole league is weak at 3B so Youks will get paid, but Boston is one of the better places for a player to go to get paid so I do see him coming back. Ditto for Papelbon, I really doubt Theo is going to pinch pennies with a young closer in his prime, not unless Papelbon gives us some indication that he's not happy here (which so far it seems like nothing could be further from the truth).

 

Beckett is a borderline case. He's a lot like a slightly more effective AJ Burnett because of his inconsistencies related to his health. I could see Theo looking at Beckett and saying "great pitcher, but too fragile for a big franchise contract" and letting him walk, especially if Buchholz makes it an easy call.

[jacksonianmarch]

Slighly more effective Burnett? In the playoffs until Burnett plays there this yr. But in terms of effectiveness over the entirety of their AL stays, Burnett has been more effective. If you were to say a little more durable Burnett, then I'd agree. But effectiveness, no

[Dojji]

Slighly more effective Burnett? In the playoffs until Burnett plays there this yr. But in terms of effectiveness over the entirety of their AL stays' date=' Burnett has been more effective. If you were to say a little more durable Burnett, then I'd agree. But effectiveness, no[/quote']

 

That's because you severely overrate Burnett.

 

Beckett leads Burnett in starts, wins, total strikeouts, IP, WHIP, OAVG, and OOBP over the last 3 years. The only areas Burnett wins are ERA, OSLG and K/9

[Dipre]

Slighly more effective Burnett? In the playoffs until Burnett plays there this yr. But in terms of effectiveness over the entirety of their AL stays' date=' Burnett has been more effective. If you were to say a little more durable Burnett, then I'd agree. But effectiveness, no[/quote']

 

This is why Gom says you have no credibility, sir.

 

Come back when Burnett has pitched a 2007-Beckett like year.

[ydeologi]

They've got such payroll flexibility and a deep farm system... it's hard to imagine them not contending, though the strength of the AL East always makes missing the playoffs a real possibility.

[jacksonianmarch]

This is why Gom says you have no credibility, sir.

 

Come back when Burnett has pitched a 2007-Beckett like year.

 

2006-2008

Beckett (BOS)- 579.2IP 553H 265ER 524K 124BB 4.11ERA 1.16WHIP 8.1K/9IP 4.22K/BB

Opponents BAA/OBPA/SLGA/OPSA= .248/.300/.410/.710

 

2006-2008

Burnett (TOR)- 522.2IP 480H 229ER 525K 191BB 3.94ERA 1.28WHIP 9.1K/9IP 2.8K/BB

Opponents BAA/OBPA/SLGA/OPSA= .245/.315/.386/.701

 

Very similar if you ask me. Burnett allows less hits and allows less hard hit balls. Beckett walks less and is the sole reason for the disparity in the WHIP. Burnett has more power. Beckett a bit more control. There isnt much difference.

[TheKilo]

You know you can put those numbers into a table, right?

[SCM33]

can you PM me with instructions of how to do this for future reference?

 

thanks

-SCM