10/6 vs. Angels: ALDS game 4

[kreinbihl34]

Please take the kid out. He can't do this right now.

[Cocos Disciples]

Wait, Masterson's still pitching? The f***?

[TheKilo]

If Papelbon starts the 9th I'm gonna lose it.

[MANNYHOF24]

You're an idiot.

 

nope truth. Your the idiot if you dont realize this.

[kreinbihl34]

You're an idiot.

 

Um no.

 

Productive Manny >>>>>>> Bay

[Dojji]

This is Gumplike. Sticking with a guy who clearly doesn't have it today? Gumplike. Easy enough to put MDC in there to start this inning.

 

Tito playing to preserve the bullpen for extra innings. He doesn't think we can score next inning.

[Cocos Disciples]

Our offense isnt nearly as spontaneoulsy dangerous with out 24 in the lineup.

 

As spontaneous as Manny's decisions to sit out whenever he had a twitch on his left ball?

[Thumper]

s*** I'd rather MDC right now.... And now no DP option.

[Dojji]

TITO PULL MASTERSON NOW! NOW!!!

[Cocos Disciples]

f*** you, Justin Masterson. f*** you with a stick in the nose.

[TheKilo]

Yeah Manny probably would have asked for the day off

[kreinbihl34]

WTF take him out.

[jacksonianmarch]

This Masterson guy is becoming my favorite Red Sock.

[MANNYHOF24]

WHAT THE f*** IS TITO WAITING FOR OMGGGGGGGG

[CrespoBlows]

Far enough.

Now how to compare the two.

 

D3 is probably the best single, quickly available metric regarding the caliber of an MLB manager and his team.

 

***

 

What is D3?

 

To understand that, a few other definitions:

 

W, L : Actual team wins and losses.

 

First-order wins and losses: Expected wins and losses, based on a team's actual runs scored and runs allowed.

 

Equivalent average (EQA): A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260. EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + S + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + S. REqA is then normalized to account for league difficulty and scale to create EqA.

 

Equivalent runs (EQR): EQR = 5 * OUT * EQA^2.5. In the fielding charts, the estimated number of EqR he had at the plate while playing this position in the field. In Adjusted Standings, EqR refers to the total number of equivalent runs scored by the team.

 

Second-order wins and losses: Expected wins and losses, based on a team's equivalent runs scored and equivalent runs allowed.

 

Adjusted equivalent runs (AEQR): EQR, adjusted for the exact strength of opposing teams' players.

 

Third-order wins and losses: Expected wins and losses, based on AEQR and AEQRA.

 

***

 

What is D3? D3 is the difference between actual wins and third-order wins. That's the difference between how a team actually did and how it should have done, given

 

1) Its exact hits, walks and other contributions on offense;

 

2) Its exact hits and walks allowed, and other contributions on defense;

 

3) The strength of its opposition.

 

A good (or lucky) manager has a positive D3, getting more wins than expected, given how his players did.

 

The mean of D3 across MLB is, of course, zero. The standard deviation is 3.0. Let's look at the worst MLB managers by D3:

 

Francona had a -7.1 D3.

[TheKilo]

Ballgame. Masterson and Tito s*** the bed. No excuse.

[The Dustball]

f*** you Masterson.

[kreinbihl34]

Yeah Manny probably would have asked for the day off

 

Don't think he missed too many days in October/November

[See Red]

You've got to be f***ing kidding me.

[Beaneater]

I can't even fathom what Tito is doing here. He's handng the game to LAA on a silver platter.

[Cocos Disciples]

Papelbon should be in.

[Thumper]

Oh joyous rapture. The go ahead run at third with 2 outs.

 

I see a squeeze bunt coming.

 

 

And finally, Masterson is out.

[Dojji]

Yeah, lock the barn, Tito. Go ahead and lock the barn.

[TheKilo]

LOL HOW IS HE STILL IN THE GAME???/??

[jacksonianmarch]

Ah, these are the angels I remember seeing in the playoffs. The guys who cut your guts out, take advantage of every little mistake and outcoach and out small ball you all over the place. Why did it take 2 games for them to show up

[kreinbihl34]

Francona had a -7.1 D3.

 

Ok and how can we compare that to Cashman?

Isn't his team sitting at home?

[Cocos Disciples]

Don't think he missed too many days in October/November

 

Wait so are we complaining about Jason Bay? Cause that seems pretty unwarranted.

[Thumper]

This Masterson guy is becoming my favorite Red Sock.

 

Succeeded by Eric Gagn??

[kreinbihl34]

Ah' date=' these are the angels I remember seeing in the playoffs. The guys who cut your guts out, take advantage of every little mistake and outcoach and out small ball you all over the place. Why did it take 2 games for them to show up[/quote']

 

Why didn't your mom swallow?

[TheKilo]

Don't think he missed too many days in October/November

 

Wouldn't put it past someone who quit on their teammates.