With the loss in Game 3, are we screwed for the series?

[TheKilo]

?

[Gom]

?

 

Don't be stupid.

[a700hitter]

The Angels are a tough team and you hate to let them up off the mat. Even if Lester pitches a strong game tonight, the bullpen will be running on fumes after last night. The Angels pen should be just as tired, so maybe that's a wash.

[BSN07]

No.......

 

 

Beckett being off shouldn't be a huge surprise.

 

 

Lester is going game 4 at Home. I like the Sox chances.

[VA Sox Fan]

If Beckett doesn't improve, we may be screwed for the ALCS.

 

Feel good about tonight's game with Lester going. DO NOT want to have to go back to LA.

[BSN07]

If Beckett doesn't improve, we may be screwed for the ALCS.

 

Feel good about tonight's game with Lester going. DO NOT want to have to go back to LA.

 

 

Beckett pitched with no pain which is a plus. He had the look of someone who hasn't pitched in a serious outing in 2 weeks. Honestly, if he had pitched good it would have been a big accomplishment. Guys who miss a start or on 15 DL are rusty when they come back. He pitched ok. He wasn't what we are used to watching. But he's human. Lester right now might have to be the Post Season stud of this team. He has been the most consistant pitcher in the rotation all season, and can be out right dominate. He is capable of this. If Matsuzaka can figure out he isn't gonna be allowed 140 pitches and make it past the fifth. The Sox still have a good chance in this post season.

[MANNYHOF24]

?

 

 

Last time I checked we still lead the series 2-1, we have our real ace on the mound tonight, and we are playing at Fenway park, where we are normally really good. Lackey at Fenway sucks. Lester is 10-1 with a sub 3 ERA at the fenways this year. To say that we are screwed is ridiculous.

[BoSox21]

why would we be screwed?

[VA Sox Fan]

Beckett pitched with no pain which is a plus. He had the look of someone who hasn't pitched in a serious outing in 2 weeks. Honestly' date=' if he had pitched good it would have been a big accomplishment. Guys who miss a start or on 15 DL are rusty when they come back. He pitched ok. He wasn't what we are used to watching. But he's human. Lester right now might have to be the Post Season stud of this team. He has been the most consistant pitcher in the rotation all season, and can be out right dominate. He is capable of this. If Matsuzaka can figure out he isn't gonna be allowed 140 pitches and make it past the fifth. The Sox still have a good chance in this post season.[/quote']

 

You're right. The big thing is that he pitched with no pain. Hopefully, he'll get his location back and shake off the rust.

[Gom]

It looked like he was still bothered. His pitches were tailing. That's just my observation.

[ORS]

I'm geniunely curious, what does "his pitches were tailing" imply to you? I don't doubt that you think you saw something there, but I question the connections you make to what you see and what really is.

[jacksonianmarch]

His location sucked. But in all seriousness, if the sox win tonight, then all is forgotten. But, if the sox have to play in Anaheim on Wednesday and come back to the east coast on Thursday, it might be more than they can recover from. Winning tonight is a must

[BoSox21]

He had the look of someone who hasn't pitched in a serious outing in 2 weeks.

 

I'm all for optimism but he had the look of someone who hasn't pitched consistently all season so put me down on the list of people who would be surprised if he pitches 7-8 shutout innings should he get another playoff start rather than those who will be surprised if he doesn't

[Gom]

I'm geniunely curious' date=' what does "his pitches were tailing" imply to you? I don't doubt that you think you saw something there, but I question the connections you make to what you see and what really is.[/quote']

Ok, let me try to explain it to you. Try to visualize what I'm saying or actually trying it and it may help.

 

When an oblique muscle is hurting, the pain will keep the body from twisting. For a pitcher what it does is that it causes him to "not finish" his pitches. Why? He can't rotate his upper body properly. Josh Beckett has excellent mechanics. He torques his body well, and he has great overall control. Seeing him miss like he had last night was uncharacteristic.

 

Now, in watching the game, and comparing it to where Varitek was setting up, his fastball was tailing away from lefties and in towards righties. The oblique is more needed for a fastball for east/west location and for breaking pitch for north/south location. Specifically it will tail to the arm side for a pitcher and up in the zone for off-speed. Watching Beckett pitch [and to tell you the truth, not having a strong rooting interest, I can see the game more objectively than you [as I'm sure you can see a Yankees playoff game more objectively than I can].

 

What I noticed was that Beckett's control of his fastball was tailing away [in to righties, away from lefties] consistently from the target that Varitek was setting, and his breaking pitches were up in the zone [he wasn't "snapping" his pitches, also known as "getting on top" of his breaking pitch, i.e., not throwing them down]. This led me to believe that his oblique was still bothering him.

[ORS]

Ok, let me try to explain it to you. Try to visualize what I'm saying or actually trying it and it may help.

 

When an oblique muscle is hurting, the pain will keep the body from twisting. For a pitcher what it does is that it causes him to "not finish" his pitches. Why? He can't rotate his upper body properly. Josh Beckett has excellent mechanics. He torques his body well, and he has great overall control. Seeing him miss like he had last night was uncharacteristic.

 

Now, in watching the game, and comparing it to where Varitek was setting up, his fastball was tailing away from lefties and it towards righties. The oblique is more needed for a fastball for east/west location and for breaking pitch for north/south location. Specifically it will tail to the arm side for a pitcher and up in the zone for off-speed. Watching Beckett pitch.

 

What I noticed was that Beckett's control of his fastball was tailing away [in to righties, away from lefties] consistently from the target that Varitek was setting, and his breaking pitches were up in the zone [he wasn't "snapping" his pitches]. This led me to believe that his oblique was still bothering him.

This fails basic physics. The lateral movement of a fastball, the "armside run", is from the magnus force that is dependent on velocity and spin frequency. If the pitch is tailing more, he's getting more finish on it, not less. When a FB isn't finished, it has less angular velocity. The fingers come off early and don't follow through to snap that extra bit spin imparted at the end of the release. This is an incorrect application of baseball jargon.

 

[and to tell you the truth, not having a strong rooting interest, I can see the game more objectively than you [as I'm sure you can see a Yankees playoff game more objectively than I can].

I don't care how many times you credit yourself with this attribute, it doesn't make it so.

[jacksonianmarch]

You are overthinking this Gom. An injured oblique means that a pitcher will have difficulty finishing their pitches. IE, the pitches will be up like they were

[ORS]

Furthermore, the pitch/fx tool at brooksbaseball.net shows no deviation in Beckett's lateral movement on his FB, from his previous outdoor starts in September. His typical September FB had armside run of about 7.60 inches. Last night it was 7.96. That's only 3/8", something you can't discern over the TV, I don't care how good your HD is.

 

I actually thought he had a decent curve last night. Brooksbaseball confirms that it wasn't his best, but the movement and location of it are similar to good September starts.

[Gom]

This fails basic physics. The lateral movement of a fastball' date=' the "armside run", is from the magnus force that is dependent on velocity and spin frequency. If the pitch is tailing more, he's getting more finish on it, not less. When a FB isn't finished, it has less angular velocity. The fingers come off early and don't follow through to snap that extra bit spin imparted at the end of the release. This is an incorrect application of baseball jargon. [/quote']

Regardless of the terminology [in playing the game the way I learned, finishing your pitches meant closing your shoulder and keeping your head tucked int to the pitch], his oblique more than likely kept him more "open" thus tailing the fastball and not breaking off his off-speed pitches].

An injured oblique means that a pitcher will have difficulty finishing their pitches. IE' date=' the pitches will be up like they were[/quote']

Isn't that what I'm saying? Fastball running more than he wants, breaking pitches up.

 

It wasn't overthinking Jacko, just pointing out something to the statheads and those that haven't played as much as I have. Ask Thumper, I'm sure he'll tell you the same thing.

[ORS]

You are overthinking this Gom. An injured oblique means that a pitcher will have difficulty finishing their pitches. IE' date=' the pitches will be up like they were[/quote']

They weren't "up". Danley eliminated the bottom of the zone early. Look at the detail chart of all Beckett's pitches...

 

http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/location.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2008/month_10/day_05/gid_2008_10_05_anamlb_bosmlb_1//pbp/pitchers/277417.xml&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3

 

The strikes called balls (dark green) predominantly occur in the bottom of the zone, and I can tell you most of those happened in the 1st two innings. Pitches weren't getting called there, so they came "up" to the called strikezone.

[ORS]

Regardless of the terminology [in playing the game the way I learned' date= finishing your pitches meant closing your shoulder and keeping your head tucked int to the pitch], his oblique more than likely kept him more "open" thus tailing the fastball and not breaking off his off-speed pitches].

The vertical and horizontal break on his pitches was no different than in Sept. There would be measurable differences if your "likey" occurred at all.

[ORS]

It wasn't overthinking Jacko' date=' just pointing out something to the statheads and those that haven't played as much as I have. Ask Thumper, I'm sure he'll tell you the same thing.[/quote']

Gom, you played HS baseball. Get over yourself.

[Gom]

ORS, this doesnt tell me what pitch was what. Which were fastballs, which were off-speed? Was the batter righty or lefty? What was the percentage of balls in the zone as opposed to what he normally throws? Don't be a JHB now.

 

Either he was hurting or he sucked. Take your pick. I'm defending your pitcher and saying that he is much better than we saw, and is probably still feeling the effects of the oblique injury.

 

P.S. I didn't only play, I've umpired, and I've coached baseball for 4 years.

[jacksonianmarch]

The run and the tail of the ball has more to do with your wrist and fingers than your oblique.

[jacksonianmarch]

I pitched at a pretty high level and threw hard enough to get scouted by the sox and other organizations. I can say from experience with a multitude of lesser injuries that the worst of them all IMO was a back or oblique strain. I couldnt finish my pitches. Everything was up. And the only way I knew my pitch would stay down was if it hurt. If you dont finish your pitches, everything stays high. The curveball has the same break but ends up down the middle instead of at the knees. The heater is chest high and ready for a homer. Those were the days I'd throw a lot of pitches inside. Since everything stayed up, no batter wished to dig in since a lot of the pitches where I missed location went whizzing by their helmets. I didnt have much trouble with lateral movement more than my usual wildness. But as I went on with my college career and had capable rotation mates, I would usually skip a start. I only had to skip a couple, but it becomes difficult to strike the fear of god into hitters as they become more advanced.

[BoSox21]

Beckett had a 5.65 ERA at home this year and had a 7.43 ERA in two starts vs. Anaheim. Why is there a need to find a reason for his disappointing outing last night beyond the fact that it's pretty consistent with what he's been this year?

 

I understand the lore of "playoff Josh Beckett" and all but he hasn't shown anything all year to suggest that he can flip that switch all of a sudden and dominate

[ORS]

He sucked. He couldn't locate his FB last night. The curve was fine. Not his best, but I've seen him successful with worse. If you want to blame that on his oblique, about the only thing that makes sense after seeing him and looking at the data, is that the oblique made him wait 12 days between starts and he wasn't sharp after sitting.

[ORS]

ORS, this doesnt tell me what pitch was what. Which were fastballs, which were off-speed? Was the batter righty or lefty? What was the percentage of balls in the zone as opposed to what he normally throws? Don't be a JHB now.

 

Either he was hurting or he sucked. Take your pick. I'm defending your pitcher and saying that he is much better than we saw, and is probably still feeling the effects of the oblique injury.

 

P.S. I didn't only play, I've umpired, and I've coached baseball for 4 years.

I will be like JHB like this. If you want the data parsed out like that, do the research yourself. I've given you the url of the site, go there and figure it out. I think they break it down to that level. Or, you could trust my "eyes". You know, those magnificent f***ing things you think trump all else. Here's what my eyes told me. He had no problem throwing the fastball down in innings 1 and 2. I know this because it was the low strike that got me to go to brooksbaseball.net to see where the pitches were coming in.

 

He had a bad night. He couldn't locate the fastball.

 

Who gives a s*** if you played, umped, or shoved baseballs up your ass for fun? You don't need a polished resume of "experience" to discuss the game intelligently. Your point need only make sense and be verifiable by some form of data.

[Gom]

Honestly, ORS, too much work to determine. It looked like he was still bothered, but he just as easily could have sucked. It's really not that important either way.

[rician blast]

Perhaps some overanalysis is being conducted here, but I'll jump in. Particularly since it was Beckett's RIGHT oblique, to the extent he was hampered by the strain, I think you could make a case that the result on his mechanics would be that he would tend to stay relatively closed throughout the deliver as opposed to opening up. There'd be a loss of rotational torque towards the release and follow through of his delivery...resulting in less movement, not more. At leats that's my thoughts, I suppose ya never know if perhaps it is bothering him to some extent.

 

At any rate, I think his struggles might tell us, or hinge upon, two things and this builds on a couple of the views expressed here today:

 

(1) The layoff left him rusty

(2) 2008 Beckett

 

Knowing Sox management, I imagine the FO is watching VERY closely to see how Beckett, assuming he has additional starts this post-season, performs as he enters his last year before the team option. Hate to say it, but despite his importance in the Sox capturing the 2007 WS title, with this FO, Beckett still needs to "prove himself" if he's to get extended beyond 2010 either during this offseason or any time prior to the close of the 2009 season.

 

If the Sox advance, but Beckett throws like crap a couple more times, especially if there is no oblique strain to blame it on, the FO will start to question his ability, and an offseason extension will be unlikely. And if he's less than stellar early in 2009, I'm afraid things could get ugly.

[Gom]

Actually rician, his right oblique would cause him to open up more, not less,