7/28 vs LAA

[Cocos Disciples]

Dice-Man vs. Lil' Weaver

 

Ganar.

[riverside sluggers]

Weaver, hey Weaver you gonna stare down Ortiz again? Haha its like one of the kids from Hanson trying to intimidate the Hulk

 

Jered Weaver (5 games vs Boston, 0-2 with a 5.46 ERA---Career at Fenway Park in 3 games, 0-1 with a 7.88 ERA)

Dustin Pedroia, 3 for 8 (.375 avg) 2 Doubles, Walk, 2 Ks, SB

Kevin Youkilis, 5 for 15 (.333 avg) 2 HRs, 4 RBIs, Walk, K, SB

David Ortiz, 6 for 13 (.462 avg) 2 HRs, 8 RBIs, 2 Walks, 2 Ks

Manny Ramirez, 1 for 9 (.111 avg) RBI, Walk, 5 Ks

Mike Lowell, 2 for 7 (.286 avg) Walk, K

J.D. Drew, 4 for 9 (.444 avg) SB

Jed Lowrie ---

Jason Varitek, 1 for 8 (.125 avg) Double, K

Jacoby Ellsbury, 1 for 3 (.333 avg) HR, RBI

///

Sean Casey, 1 for 7 (.143 avg) RBI

Kevin Cash, 1 for 2 (.500 avg) K

Alex Cora, 1 for 3 (.333 avg) K

Coco Crisp, 1 for 11 (.091 avg) Double, 3 Ks

 

Daisuke Matsuzaka (1st career appearance vs Anaheim---Career at Fenway Park in 23 games, 14-5 with a 4.21 ERA)

Chone Figgins ---

Casey Kotchman ---

Maicer Izturis ---

Vladimir Guerrero ---

Torii Hunter, 0 for 4, 2 Ks

Garret Anderson ---

Howie Kendrick ---

Juan Rivera ---

Jeff Mathis ---

 

Weaver this season vs Boston in 1 game, 9.00 ERA, took place at Fenway. On the road in 10 games, 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA

 

Matsuzaka this season at home in 9 games, 6-1 with a 3.02 ERA

[Jayhawk Bill]

The LAAofA have been absurdly lucky this season. Part of that can be expressed as "Wins Over Pythag," where the Angels are eight games higher than they "should" be. Their D3 is even higher, with the Angels exceeding their third-order projected W-L total by a whopping 10.8 games. A big part of D3 is often the caliber of a manager, and Mike Scioscia should be, along with Ron Gardenhire, one of the two big AL Manager of the Year candidates. Still, it's tough to believe that no luck is involved.

 

Another area where the Angels appear to be getting lucky, though, is defense. The Angels are eighth in MLB in DER at .708. Last season they were twenty-fourth at .688. That's a 20-point difference in opposing teams' BABIP--that's almost a hit a game saved by better defense. How could this be?

 

1) Jeff Mathis is better than Mike Napoli this season. That's not necessarily true of their entire careers, though.

 

2) Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis are having career years at shortstop. Those both appear to be flukes.

 

3) Torii Hunter has somehow returned to the fielding rates of his halcyon days in Minnesota. That, too, appears to be a small sample effect.

 

4) Nobody is doing worse than average on defense.

 

It's easy to point to a hitter playing over his head and to know that it's not going to last. Because the effects of the Angels' unusually good defense up the middle is distributed roughly evenly across its pitching staff, it's harder to identify--but it's just as much a fluke.

 

***

 

A stat lost in the morass: Angels' starting pitchers are tiring. Their ERA over the first half was 3.75, but it's dropped to 5.33 in the second half.

 

***

 

Our hitting came back last night, assisted by Ponson. Big Papi looks OK, and Manny has beguin his end-of-contract sprint for the finish (regardless of what DeMarlo Hale signals). The Angels have the best W-L record in the league, but they've been lucky to get it, and that luck may be running out. Boston is good enough to beat this team tonight.

[TheKilo]

2/3 at the bare minimum.

[yeszir]

Boston is good enough to beat this team tonight.

 

Especially at home. I'm somewhat optimistic after what I saw last night. Let's hope this is the start of a long sox winning streak.

[schillingouttheks]

Today we salute Mr. Pro Sports Heckler Guy. That's right, the real men of genius have made a comeback.

 

Let's hope we have a guy like this at the park tonight. WIN.

 

[youtube=Mr. Pro Sports Heckler Guy]4x0MbVYVE2A

[BoSox21]

^^^^thats why I throw batteries at games. I KNOW i'm making a difference

[ORS]

The Angels have the best W-L record in the league' date=' but they've been lucky to get it, and that luck may be running out.[/quote']

I mentioned something in the gamethread during Beckett's late game meltdown that cost the Sox the game in LA. To me, when I've watched them this year, it appears that the Angels seem to benefit on offense by having their hits cluster in innings. To confirm, I looked at two things.

 

1) Situational hitting - If this were true, the splits with runners on and RISP should be better.

 

[table]Situation|BA|OBP|SLG

All|.261|.322|.398

Runners|.283|.349|.436

RISP|.279|.358|.418[/table]

 

2) Runs scored vs. Runs created - They should exceed their theoretical run production if they are clustering.

 

[table]Runs|RC|EqR

467|446.2|447[/table]

 

Time for the other shoe to drop.

[dreilly]

Especially at home. I'm somewhat optimistic after what I saw last night. Let's hope this is the start of a long sox winning streak.

 

That's what I'm hoping.

[Cocos Disciples]

JHB, I was looking at BR's expanded standings and was pretty surprised to see OAK with the same pythag as LAA. Right now, Oakland's pythag W-L puts them at 2 games over the Angels. In actuality, they are 11 games back. Too bad.

 

So, while I expect LAA to win the West, I doubt they get homefield. Sox should win tonight.

[Jayhawk Bill]

JHB, I was looking at BR's expanded standings and was pretty surprised to see OAK with the same pythag as LAA. Right now, Oakland's pythag W-L puts them at 2 games over the Angels. In actuality, they are 11 games back. Too bad.

 

So, while I expect LAA to win the West, I doubt they get homefield. Sox should win tonight.

 

BP third-order standings has Oakland up by 3.1 games over LAA...part of that, of course, is Mike Scioscia, but part of it is that LAA has probably gotten lucky.

[CalvnHobs6]

Lineups:

Red Sox

 

1. Dustin Pedroia, 2B

2. Kevin Youkilis, 1B

3. David Ortiz, DH

4. Manny Ramirez, LF

5. Mike Lowell, 3B

6. J.D. Drew, RF

7. Jed Lowrie, SS

8. Jason Varitek, C

9. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF

--Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP

 

Angels

 

1. Chone Figgins, 3B

2. Casey Kotchman, 1B

3. Maicer Izturis

4. Vladimir Guerrero, RF

5. Torii Hunter, CF

6. Garret Anderson, LF

7. Howie Kendrick, 2B

8. Juan Rivera, DH

9. Jeff Mathis, C

-- SP, Jered Weaver

 

I like our chances if Dice K can go 7.

[jacksonianmarch]

Isnt the pythag thrown off by dominant closers or dominant relievers? IIRC, the yankees always exceeded their pythag, and most of that was attributed to having the best closer in the game

[Jayhawk Bill]

Isnt the pythag thrown off by dominant closers or dominant relievers? IIRC' date=' the yankees always exceeded their pythag, and most of that was attributed to having the best closer in the game[/quote']

 

There was lots of unresearched chatter about that. I read a study a few years back that had been inspired by that chatter, particularly with respect to the Yankees with Fruitbat closing. The study showed that a great closer was worth less than an extra win over Pythag--there was an effect, but it was very minimal. As the author pointed out, great closers have great ERAs, and great ERAs affect a team's Pythag projected win counts.

[jacksonianmarch]

it would make sense though. You get beat in games that the other team just throttles you, but get a tight lead late and the game is over

[Gom]

Go Angels.

 

Do you guys actually watch the games, or just pore over the numbers?

[ORS]

Do you guys actually watch the games' date=' or just pore over the numbers?[/quote']

The two are mutually exclusive?

[Cocos Disciples]

Go Angels.

 

Do you guys actually watch the games, or just pore over the numbers?

 

Does that smily mean you're kidding, or will I have to slap you?

[zackredsox]

Manny I want another big game.

[TheKilo]

That lineup, I love it.

[Cocos Disciples]

DiceK got a big break there.

[msubulldogs21]

It really is weird seeing a little guy like Maicer Izturis in the 3 spot of any lineup. It just is.

 

Nice 1-2-3 inning for Dice.

[Cocos Disciples]

Why does Maicer Izturis hit 3rd, where the best hitter normally goes?

[Gom]

Does that smily mean you're kidding' date=' or will I have to slap you?[/quote']

Kidding. Glad to see someone thinks up in New England.

[yeszir]

Not the greatest start for Daisuke

[msubulldogs21]

Really good play by Drew right there to save several runs.

[Bostonownsyou]

Damage minimized great job Drew/Dice.

[Bostonownsyou]

Orioles 4 Yankees 0 top 2nd.

[ORS]

Weaver got an extra 5" on the outside corner for the called strike 3.

 

EDIT: This was for Manny's AB. The called 3rd to Jed was a strike.

[Bostonownsyou]

Figgins is a really annoying dood.