The Dreamboat is Struggling

[TheKilo]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=ellsbja01&t=b&year=2008

 

April - .280/.396/.440/.836

May - .280/.375/.396/.771

June - .255/.276/.340/.616

 

He needs to be thanking Varitek for taking all of the heat this month. He's been terrible offensively, and it seems like he's having issues making adjustments. A .276 OBP for a leadoff hitter is unacceptable. Coco Crisp has a higher OPS.

 

(I also credit Pedroia's turnaround with my negative thread, so here's hoping this works).

[yeszir]

But he's sooooooo cute.

 

He also hasn't had a SB in his past 10 games, partly because of his horrid OBP not getting him any opportunities. What's wrong with Jacoby!

[Rdsxmbnt]

I checked to see if it was a case of balls just not dropping in for hits but his BABIP is normal. His BB/K trend is worrying for the near future: 1.86 -> 1.08 -> 0.15.

 

hey Yeszir you back to posting on netsports?

[yeszir]

hey Yeszir you back to posting on netsports?

 

I'm gonna try to stop in every once in a while.

[Jayhawk Bill]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=ellsbja01&t=b&year=2008

 

April - .280/.396/.440/.836

May - .280/.375/.396/.771

June - .255/.276/.340/.616

 

He needs to be thanking Varitek for taking all of the heat this month. He's been terrible offensively, and it seems like he's having issues making adjustments. A .276 OBP for a leadoff hitter is unacceptable. Coco Crisp has a higher OPS.

 

(I also credit Pedroia's turnaround with my negative thread, so here's hoping this works).

 

Gotta look at the split split...second half of June: .191/.224/.277

 

Bad? Yeah...but his BABIP was only .243 in those 12 games, whereas he's usually a bit over .300 because of his speed. Correct for BABIP and he's over .250 in the second half of June, and the rest of his season is fine.

 

Not to worry.

[CrespoBlows]

How about a Pedroia/Youkilis combination at the top of lineup until he turns it around?

[a700hitter]

I agree. They need to set the table at the top of the lineup and Jacoby is not getting it done. Drop him in the order and take some of the pressure off him.

[yeszir]

I've always been of the belief that dropping someone in the lineup only adds to the pressure they feel - the pressure to rebound and to regain their initial spot in the lineup.

[ksushi]

Now, I know it is early, and usually when I say something like this I end up looking like a jackass in one way or another. So here is to hoping that happens and Ellsbury gets back to being the total dreamboat.

 

I would have traded Jacoby Ellsbury this past winter, and I really wish Theo would have too. Personally, I don't place a lot of importance in a players offensive ability if they play up the middle and after seeing Coco Crisp have probably the best defensive season I've ever seen in CF, I was 100% willing to deal with his inconsistencies at the plate in favor of the glove. Plus, I think we've seen some of the worst baseball of Coco's career in terms of offense the past couple years and it has to get better from here. In that short clip we saw of Ellsbury in Sept./Oct. we saw a .350 hitter, chances are, he will never approach that average again for a longer stretch of time. He's a good player, but are we sure he is going to be THAT much more productive than Coco to justify not capitalizing on his sky-high trade value? Even still, if Theo played his hand well, he could bring a kings ransom for Ellsbury.

 

I just don't see Ellsbury being much better than a .290/.370/.400 guy year in, year out. Which is really valuable, don't get me wrong. But when you have a guy with the pedigree of an Ellsbury so early in his career, if you can turn that into a mainstay in the middle of your order if the right guy becomes available via trade. If we get a chance to reel in a power bat somehow, I think our bullpen is fixable with in-house options and I think our starters are outstanding, but our offense worries me. I would pull the trigger on an Ellsbury+ for big bat deal in a heart beat, not saying it will happen, but I'm really hoping something along those lines develops this offseason. I'm extremely worried that Manny's power seems to be reliant on bad off-speed pitches, I'm really worried that Tek has died, I'm really worried that I will have to see Julio Lugo in a Red Sox uniform for the duration of that contract (2 years left after this? Please god, no).

 

I don't think Ellsbury is going to be a big presence in our lineup. And I think the week or two long swoons we're having now that might not be a big issue this season, and won't keep us from being a good offensive club now, but they might be symptoms of a big problem we're going to have as guys like Tek, Manny, Ortiz, Drew and Lowell get older. I don't know if it will happen this july, but as good as our pitching outlook is for the next 5-7 years with guys like Lester, Buch, Dice, Beckett, Bowden, Masterson etc. Our offensive outlook is not so hot as is.

 

So, heres to hoping he makes me look like a jackass, but right now I love the idea of trading him.

[a700hitter]

I've always been of the belief that dropping someone in the lineup only adds to the pressure they feel - the pressure to rebound and to regain their initial spot in the lineup.

Maybe you are right, but in the mean time it will help the lineup if they move him down.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Now, I know it is early, and usually when I say something like this I end up looking like a jackass in one way or another. So here is to hoping that happens and Ellsbury gets back to being the total dreamboat.

 

I would have traded Jacoby Ellsbury this past winter, and I really wish Theo would have too. Personally, I don't place a lot of importance in a players offensive ability if they play up the middle and after seeing Coco Crisp have probably the best defensive season I've ever seen in CF, I was 100% willing to deal with his inconsistencies at the plate in favor of the glove. Plus, I think we've seen some of the worst baseball of Coco's career in terms of offense the past couple years and it has to get better from here. In that short clip we saw of Ellsbury in Sept./Oct. we saw a .350 hitter, chances are, he will never approach that average again for a longer stretch of time. He's a good player, but are we sure he is going to be THAT much more productive than Coco to justify not capitalizing on his sky-high trade value? Even still, if Theo played his hand well, he could bring a kings ransom for Ellsbury.

 

I just don't see Ellsbury being much better than a .290/.370/.400 guy year in, year out. Which is really valuable, don't get me wrong. But when you have a guy with the pedigree of an Ellsbury so early in his career, if you can turn that into a mainstay in the middle of your order if the right guy becomes available via trade. If we get a chance to reel in a power bat somehow, I think our bullpen is fixable with in-house options and I think our starters are outstanding, but our offense worries me. I would pull the trigger on an Ellsbury+ for big bat deal in a heart beat, not saying it will happen, but I'm really hoping something along those lines develops this offseason. I'm extremely worried that Manny's power seems to be reliant on bad off-speed pitches, I'm really worried that Tek has died, I'm really worried that I will have to see Julio Lugo in a Red Sox uniform for the duration of that contract (2 years left after this? Please god, no).

 

I don't think Ellsbury is going to be a big presence in our lineup. And I think the week or two long swoons we're having now that might not be a big issue this season, and won't keep us from being a good offensive club now, but they might be symptoms of a big problem we're going to have as guys like Tek, Manny, Ortiz, Drew and Lowell get older. I don't know if it will happen this july, but as good as our pitching outlook is for the next 5-7 years with guys like Lester, Buch, Dice, Beckett, Bowden, Masterson etc. Our offensive outlook is not so hot as is.

 

So, heres to hoping he makes me look like a jackass, but right now I love the idea of trading him.

 

ksushi, I disagree, and I see this as a short-term issue driven by bad BABIP in late June.

 

Still, Joe Sheehan of BP wrote a major article today suggesting that the decline is a result of MLB pitchers' decision to throw strikes to Ellsbury instead of treating him as a hitter capable of putting a ball over the fence, and, while Sheehan is both a dickhead and a Yankees fan, he is BP's best writer. Your ideas are supported by guys who write about this stuff for a living: you may be right or wrong, but if one takes into account the context from which you write, one should never consider you a jackass for having written these words.

[BSN07]

Ellsburys struggles can be traced back to the injury to his wrist. It's not 100%, and hes having trouble driving the ball. Also like Pedroia, pitchers have found weak spots in his swing and he will have to make adjustments. Ellsbury will be fine, the AS break might do him well to get his swing back, and resting his wrist won't be a bad thing either.

 

 

I do agree tho, that in the mean time it might be better if he was dropped in the batting order. Pedroia in the LO spot isn't bad, Youk hates it so him in the 2nd spot wouldn't be bad. If Ortiz returns anytime soon the could slot JD in the 2nd spot as well.

[mannyforpres]

the injury is a good point and he will hit better soon enough. but to agree with ksushi, i dont think he will ever be one of the elite centerfielders in the game and trading him now while his stock is high seems like a good option. i think that dropping him in the order would be detrimental because it would just affirm that francona believes he is slumping, which could hurt his confidence pushing it to a point where it would be tough to regain.

[rician blast]

Last year Ellsbury hit .360 in post-season play, but somehow I don't place much stock in his post-season performance last year. IIRC, a good number of his "big hits" were bloops or part of weak looking at bats. I'm not sure what the hitting charts show, but what I recall seeing doesn't seem to be in line with the numbers he put up. JMHO.

[TheKilo]

Last year Ellsbury hit .360 in post-season play' date=' but somehow I don't place much stock in his post-season performance last year. IIRC, a good number of his "big hits" were bloops or part of weak looking at bats. I'm not sure what the hitting charts show, but what I recall seeing doesn't seem to be in line with the numbers he put up. JMHO.[/quote']

 

Yeah, he was graced with a very lucky BABIP last fall.

[ksushi]

If the BABIP gods favor you, then you're lucky, and I don't hold that against a player. I didn't mean to say that in my previous post but it sorta came out a little bit that way. I do think, however, you can kind of excuse a guy who has had an inordinately unlucky BABIP. He might have crossed some bats, spit on the rubber, or used Ted's name in vain.

 

Typically, when any player is "hot" hits are dropping in when they are hit hard and when they are blooped. It's just what happens. I've noticed that lately, everything off Ellsbury's bat has ended up in a fielders glove. I do think a combination of wrist soreness and bad luck are making it tough for him to put up numbers now, but regardless of that, I don't like his chances of being a legitimate presence in the lineup but I do like his chances of being able to bring one in as trade bait.

 

If you want to get in a real awesome arguement about baseball with me, keep reading. I'm in the mood. (Read: I'm bored at work)

 

Speed is Ellsbury's most valuable asset. I would argue, that speed is the most exciting and the least impactful skill a player can have. Nothing is more exciting than knowing you have a player on the bases who can or might score from wherever he is IF the ball is put in play and gets through the infield. He gets a lot of points for the speed, but in order to put that speed to work he has to get on base. Once he gets on base, it can only take him so far. Lets say there are two outs, Ellsbury walks. Steals second. Steals third. Now he is standing on third with two outs, but if the batter at the plate can't reach base, he might as well be standing on first base because the only place he is going is to get his glove and hike it to centerfield. The inning is over. Speed is a skill that depends on your own ability to get on base, and the ability of the other hitters in the lineup to drive you in. I'm not saying it isn't useful, but I'm saying it isn't SO useful its worth putting all your eggs in his basket*.

 

I would say that hitting and pitching make up 70% of baseball. If you pitch and hit well, you will be effective. From there, I think defense takes in about 20% and managing 5% speed maybe 5%, but I'm willing to amend this list to include other things before I commit to saying speed is as important as a good manager because it might not be. Speed has too many IF's.

 

 

 

 

* taking a page out of JHB's book, but if you didn't LOL at that sentence, I don't like you.

[yeszir]

I disagree. Speed in the leadoff spot is crucial. Yes, its moot if the batter can't reach base or if the people behind him suck, but with a decent lineup and a decent bat, speed DRAMATICALLY improves a player's value.

 

The old, beaten to death cliche says that baseball is a game of inches. And it is. The extra infield dribblers that Ellsbury beats out, or a 2 out steal of second that puts him in scoring position (and you know he'll score on pretty much anything) are extremely valuable. Especially looking at the spat of close games the sox have lost recently. With Ellsbury producing and (I'm trying to avoid saying this but I can't) manufacturing runs, or at least some chances at runs, we win a lot of those games.

 

So yes, I agree that his speed is useless unless he performs well in other areas. But if he's hitting on all cylinders, look out.

 

This just got me thinking. Is there any possible way to see overall opponent pitchers ERA or WHIP or BAA with a guy like Ellsbury on first? You need to take the distraction factor into account too. I gaurantee you Ellsbury on first helps the batter more than Varitek on first does. (Stats might be skewed because of who follows Ellsbury in the lineup though..would there be some way to account for this?)

[Jayhawk Bill]

The player in MLB whose speed is the most valuable in a given year might have speed worth ten runs. Juan Pierre was best in 2007 with 11.47 runs; Chone Figgins led in 2006 with 9.19 runs.* Jacoby Ellsbury is good enough to be the best baserunner in MLB in any given year, but when Manny's hitting is worth 59-68 runs per year 2001-2006 (BRAR), and even Tim Wakefield's pitching is worth 40-75 runs per year 2001-2007 (PRAR), one can see that even the best baserunner in MLB isn't nearly as valuable for that skill as he should be for his hitting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

* Source http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6845

[ksushi]

I would say on-base ability is more crucial in the lead-off spot than speed. Many things have to play out in a teams favor to take advantage of a speedy player.

 

His speed definitely creates some hits, rushes defenders causing errant throws, factors on the pitchers mind. I can tell you from experience, that a fast runner at first base doesn't factor as much as you think on a pitcher, but it does do some things. If anything, it matters more to the catcher, which goes back to the bit about defenders being rushed. I think having a guy like Ellsbury on first to start a game means the middle of the order sees more fastballs. All that is great, but I think speed is a complementary skill. It complements a good route-runners defense. It is what turns good instincts into good plays. It turns close plays into base-hits. That is how I look at speed and I think you can build a very good team without very much speed. I'm not saying its a negative or a non-factor, but in Jacoby's case, I would trade his speed and potential for proven on-base ability and power in a heart beat.

 

I agree speed matters. To say it equates to roughly 4% importance when it comes to putting together a baseball team isn't saying it doesn't matter. It just matters significantly less than pitching and hitting. When you have a prospect like Ellsbury and a pressing need to fill, I think the best way to maximize the value of the prospect is to use the game changing speed as a selling point and turn that player into real run producing talent via trade. I think trading a combination of Ellsbury, Lowrie, Moss, and Bowden could net us any player we could possibly acquire on the open market. I would trade Ellsbury and Lowrie over the other two in that group because of the position they play and the particular skill sets they bring to that position.

[Jayhawk Bill]

This just got me thinking. Is there any possible way to see overall opponent pitchers ERA or WHIP or BAA with a guy like Ellsbury on first? You need to take the distraction factor into account too. I gaurantee you Ellsbury on first helps the batter more than Varitek on first does. (Stats might be skewed because of who follows Ellsbury in the lineup though..would there be some way to account for this?)

 

What I can do is check Dustin Pedroia with and without a runner on first, knowing that the runner frequently, if not usually, would be Ellsbury.

 

Nobody on base: .316/.356/.485

Runner on first: .278/.350/.407

[ksushi]

The player in MLB whose speed is the most valuable in a given year might have speed worth ten runs. Juan Pierre was best in 2007 with 11.47 runs; Chone Figgins led in 2006 with 9.19 runs.* Jacoby Ellsbury is good enough to be the best baserunner in MLB in any given year, but when Manny's hitting is worth 59-68 runs per year 2001-2006 (BRAR), and even Tim Wakefield's pitching is worth 40-75 runs per year 2001-2007 (PRAR), one can see that even the best baserunner in MLB isn't nearly as valuable for that skill as he should be for his hitting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

* Source http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6845

 

I absolutely knew you'd come through for me on this one. It was a sixth sense. Hoorah.

 

I definitely think that the speed is over-valued by fans and baseball people alike and could be taken advantage of in a trade. I think thats real, and I would love to see Theo exploit that.

[yeszir]

What I can do is check Dustin Pedroia with and without a runner on first, knowing that the runner frequently, if not usually, would be Ellsbury.

 

Nobody on base: .316/.356/.485

Runner on first: .278/.350/.407

 

Well that's just the opposite of what you'd expect

 

The player in MLB whose speed is the most valuable in a given year might have speed worth ten runs. Juan Pierre was best in 2007 with 11.47 runs; Chone Figgins led in 2006 with 9.19 runs.* Jacoby Ellsbury is good enough to be the best baserunner in MLB in any given year, but when Manny's hitting is worth 59-68 runs per year 2001-2006 (BRAR), and even Tim Wakefield's pitching is worth 40-75 runs per year 2001-2007 (PRAR), one can see that even the best baserunner in MLB isn't nearly as valuable for that skill as he should be for his hitting.

 

I've been proven very wrong. I guess I'm just blinded by the sexiness of a stolen base.

[TheKilo]

When do we consider sending him to Pawtucket and give Moss or Van Every a shot?