Concerns about Dustin Pedroia

[Jayhawk Bill]

Do you use dilithium crystals to do all this or what?

 

JB started it. You give him detention and I'll take the Red Sox pocket protector back.

 

Dilithium crystals? In response to a serious discussion of Pedroia's value? Exactly who started it?

[a700hitter]

Dilithium crystals? In response to a serious discussion of Pedroia's value? Exactly who started it?

It's a valid discussion, but not one that some fans are willing to engage in. Some Yankee fans still think Jeter can play SS.

[BSN07]

I can't believe some on here are so willing to give up on Dustin Pedroia so quickly. Of course your probably the same that where barking to play Cora more last spring. Listen he may not hit .300 every year. If he can hit .280, and play the D he does then whats the issue? Is Lowrie going to be that much better hitter or fielder? All I'm saying is, the guy deserves a little slack. He has bounced back before, lets let him try. Hes not hindering the team at the moment.

[a700hitter]

I can't believe some on here are so willing to give up on Dustin Pedroia so quickly. Of course your probably the same that where barking to play Cora more last spring. Listen he may not hit .300 every year. If he can hit .280' date=' and play the D he does then whats the issue? Is Lowrie going to be that much better hitter or fielder? All I'm saying is, the guy deserves a little slack. He has bounced back before, lets let him try. Hes not hindering the team at the moment.[/quote']I needed to see him play every day to appreciate him. At the beginning, all I saw was a short guy with a big swing and average physical tools. If there ever was a player who had intangibles like heart and instincts make him into a valuable major leaguer, it is Dustin Pedroia.

[YAZMAN]

DON'T MESS WITH TANNER BOYLE YOU FRIGGIN' CRUDS!!!

[TheKilo]

I can't believe some on here are so willing to give up on Dustin Pedroia so quickly. Of course your probably the same that where barking to play Cora more last spring. Listen he may not hit .300 every year. If he can hit .280' date=' and play the D he does then whats the issue? Is Lowrie going to be that much better hitter or fielder? All I'm saying is, the guy deserves a little slack. He has bounced back before, lets let him try. Hes not hindering the team at the moment.[/quote']

 

Who's giving up on him?

 

I was one of his biggest defenders last season.

 

Fact is, his approach f***ing sucks right now and I don't think that's even debatable.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Fact is' date=' his approach f***ing sucks right now and I don't think that's even debatable.[/quote']

 

Let's debate that.

 

Over the past five games Dustin Pedroia is 0-15. Is there any way that's defensible?

 

1) Pedroia has an OBP of .238 without getting a hit in five games. An IsoD of .238 is remarkable--there are players NOT in slumps who can't maintain a .238 OBP, and a .238 IsoD is the realm of Ted Williams or Barry Bonds. Pedroia's not giving up and swinging at everything--he's still selecting pitches.

 

2) Let's look at his balls in play over these five games:

 

Fly ball to LF, wind blowing out at 16 mph (1/6)*

Ground ball, 5-4 force out

Ground ball, 5-3 putout

Sacrifice fly to deep CF (1/6)

Fly ball to CF (1/6)

Line out deep RF (2/3)

Ground ball, 1-3 putout

Ground ball, 4-3 putout

Fly ball to deep RF (1/6)

Ground ball, 5-3 putout

Ground ball, 4-6-3 DP (1/3)

Ground ball, 5-3 putout

Pop fly to C

 

On 7 of those 13 balls in play I'd suggest that there was practically no chance of his getting a hit: they were weak ground balls or pop flies. On the others, though, he should've had about 1.67 hits with average luck. On several he had a chance for extra bases. Even though he's had several weak balls in play recently, with only three strikeouts in five games he should have at least one, maybe two hits.

 

If one adds 1.5 hits and 3 total bases to his batting line the past five games, it becomes .100/.338/.200. That batting line wouldn't be the stuff of legend except insofar as it would be an oddity, but a .338 OBP is perfectly respectable. Even discounting Pedroia's bad ground balls--and agreeing with you that he needs to work on them--I still see the slump as a matter of luck.

 

*Fractions represent rough chance of a hit on that ball in play.

[ORS]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8370&position=2B

 

Interesting stats here.

 

O-swing is the % of pitches swung at that are out of the zone:

 

2006 - 27.12%

2007 - 24.41%

2008 - 22.20%

 

Z-swing is the % of pitches swung at that are in the zone:

 

2006 - 60.19%

2007 - 61.49%

2008 - 61.51%

 

Here are his total swings -

 

2006 - 45.10%

2007 - 44.19%

2008 - 43.66%

 

So, if you read these stats, he's actually swinging at LESS pitches than last year, swings at THE SAME when the pitch is IN the zone, and LESS when the pitches are out of the zone.

 

He's swinging at the right pitches, just not doing anything with them.

 

Is he getting unlucky? This graph suggest not:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/8370_2B_season_full_7_20080528.png

I looked at his O-swing% and Z-swing% this weekend because to my eye it "felt" like he was chasing more. What I noticed at the bottom of his fangraphs page is that his O-contact% is the thing that has changed most. Combine this with what I thought I was observing and his weak BABIP, and I think he is chasing. What the fangraphs stats don't show us is how far outside the zone he's going after the ball. When his O-contact% drops with his BABIP, and his K-rate climbs, I think it suggests he going after more really bad pitches. What brought about this change is unknown. I've seen it suggested Magadan is responsible for this. Whatever the case, it needs to be addressed.

[Mr Crunchy]

yesterday in the 4th bedard had thrown 94 pitches

23 of them to pedroia in 2abs

now i didnt like the idea of dumping loretta to annoint this guy as the incumbent

i dont like how he swings from his heels either

i didnt like him when he was hitting .150 going into last may either

but

over the rest of the season he performed and was an integral part of our 07 run.

he needs to shorten up his swing,despite his approach which dragged bedard thru the ringer he still looks stupid when he's thinking fastball and someone drops a nasty slider on his ass but i have seen enough of him not to worry about a bad stretch such as this.

[SCM33]

The reason nobody should give up on him, is because look at what he did last year. Went from hitting .165 to finishing the season above .300. Its not like hes striking out and swinging at awful pitches, they just arent falling in. Crunchy, I echo one of your statements....most specifically the fact that he threw 23 pitches to him over 2 ab's. Its not like hes an easy out.....they are just not falling in for him. The law of averages will turn around in his favor soon enough. As long as hes seeing the ball well, and putting it in play, he will be ok.

 

Pedroia is a much better player than Loretta, I liked Loretta as well....but Pedroia is much better Crunchy.

 

He swings from his heels becuase thats just the way he plays....he did it all last year...through the good and bad, and I will assume that he has had the same approach all the way through the minor league levels, and its not going to change now.

 

I dont think he should change his approach at all....go with got you there......go with turned around your slump last year...be the same player you are today, and the law of averages will turn everything around.

[ORS]

Its not like hes striking out and swinging at awful pitches...

I contend that this is the opposite of what is happening.

 

Look at this plate discipline stats for '07 and '08 at fangraphs.com.

 

[table]Year|O-Swing%|Z-Swing%|Swing%|O-Contact%|Z-Contact%|Contact%|Zone%|Pitches

2007|24.41|61.49|44.19|84.62|94.94|92.28|53.36|2213

2008|22.77|61.36|43.70|80.91|95.73|92.19|54.22|1118[/table]

 

Quick primer: O-Swing is percentage of times he swings Out of Zone, Z-Swing is percentage of times he swings in Zone, Swing is percentage of times he swings, O-Contact is percentage of times he makes contact Out of Zone, Z-Contact is percentage of times he makes contact in Zone, Contact is percentage of times he makes contact, Zone is percentage of pitches in Zone, Pitches is total number of pitches seen.

 

His strikeout rate is up 2.5% at the expense of his walk rate that is down 2.7%. Almost 1 for 1. The idea that he is getting thrown more strikes doesn't appear to be true. Over the total number of pitches thrown, he's seen 1 more pitch in the strikezone per 100. Negligible. He's swinging less frequently overall, and most of that is taking more pitches Out of Zone. "This is what I'm saying", you say? Wouldn't he be walking more if that was the case?

 

The only big change there is in his O-Contact%. The only plausible explanation I can come up with is that pitchers are throwing him more early count strikes and then expanding the zone, and he's following them. He's taking some of them, hence the improvement in the statisitcal measure of how often he chases. However, I think he's going further out of the zone that he did last year. The lower O-Contact and higher K% agree with this. And, to my eye, he swings at just about anything with 2 strikes in the count.

[SCM33]

I contend that this is the opposite of what is happening.

 

Look at this plate discipline stats for '07 and '08 at fangraphs.com.

 

[table]Year|O-Swing%|Z-Swing%|Swing%|O-Contact%|Z-Contact%|Contact%|Zone%|Pitches

2007|24.41|61.49|44.19|84.62|94.94|92.28|53.36|2213

2008|22.77|61.36|43.70|80.91|95.73|92.19|54.22|1118[/table]

 

Quick primer: O-Swing is percentage of times he swings Out of Zone, Z-Swing is percentage of times he swings in Zone, Swing is percentage of times he swings, O-Contact is percentage of times he makes contact Out of Zone, Z-Contact is percentage of times he makes contact in Zone, Contact is percentage of times he makes contact, Zone is percentage of pitches in Zone, Pitches is total number of pitches seen.

 

His strikeout rate is up 2.5% at the expense of his walk rate that is down 2.7%. Almost 1 for 1. The idea that he is getting thrown more strikes doesn't appear to be true. Over the total number of pitches thrown, he's seen 1 more pitch in the strikezone per 100. Negligible. He's swinging less frequently overall, and most of that is taking more pitches Out of Zone. "This is what I'm saying", you say? Wouldn't he be walking more if that was the case?

 

The only big change there is in his O-Contact%. The only plausible explanation I can come up with is that pitchers are throwing him more early count strikes and then expanding the zone, and he's following them. He's taking some of them, hence the improvement in the statisitcal measure of how often he chases. However, I think he's going further out of the zone that he did last year. The lower O-Contact and higher K% agree with this. And, to my eye, he swings at just about anything with 2 strikes in the count.

 

 

So then, I guess a suggestion you are making is that he should attack earlier in the count, and with results that will allow him to be more patient. The O swing suggests that they are challenging him early, and making him chase "pitchers" pitches later in the count.

[Jayhawk Bill]

His strikeout rate is up 2.5%

 

Well, 2.6%. Who cares?

 

If his BABIP is .300, and he loses 2.6% of AB from BIP to Ks, he'll lose eight points off his batting average.

 

We're not worried about eight batting average points, we're worried about a couple hundred OPS points. I suggest that it's luck; YMMV.

[ksushi]

Since, and including the day of the brawl, I've seen a difference in the way Pedroia is attacking pitchers. I don't know if that will show up on any stat sheets, but he had some loud outs during that game, and had a couple of brilliant at bats against Bedard. THAT is how a pro breaks out of a slump, and Pedroia is exactly that. He'll bust it, and be that corner-to-corner hitter he was last year. I'm confident in that. After seeing him emerge from that early season slump last year, and seeing him be one of the most consistent hitters on the team down the stretch, I trust him to break out of whatever slump he is in. That is what good hitters do.

[BoSox21]

Since' date=' and including the day of the brawl, I've seen a difference in the way Pedroia is attacking pitchers. I don't know if that will show up on any stat sheets, but he had some loud outs during that game, and had a couple of brilliant at bats against Bedard. THAT is how a pro breaks out of a slump, and Pedroia is exactly that. He'll bust it, and be that corner-to-corner hitter he was last year. I'm confident in that. After seeing him emerge from that early season slump last year, and seeing him be one of the most consistent hitters on the team down the stretch, I trust him to break out of whatever slump he is in. That is what good hitters do.[/quote']

 

exactly, during his slow start last year, the organization stayed calm knowing the fact that Pedroia has been able to hit at every level. last year, he went on to prove that he can hit at the major league level too. he'll show that once again

[Jayhawk Bill]

Who's giving up on him?

 

I was one of his biggest defenders last season.

 

Fact is, his approach f***ing sucks right now and I don't think that's even debatable.

 

In the three days since his two-hit game, I've come to agree with you.

 

Pedroia is hitting a frightening number of pop-ups and weak ground balls, mixed with a handful of well-hit fly balls. He's doing something wrong--I think that he's trying for home runs, not line drives.

 

I checked: Pedroia was added to the MLB 40-man roster when he was called up in 2006. That shouldn't have burned an option year. It looks to me (and to SoxProspects.com) that Pedroia has THREE option years remaining. Let's burn one, send him back to Pawtucket, and give him a chance to regroup while Jed Lowrie gets a few MLB plate appearances as a regular.

 

Pedroia's June stats: .097/.256/.129

 

Pedroia's stats since May 24, where he entered the game batting .300: .117/.229/.200

 

Jed Lowrie could use some trade value, or even a chance to supplant Lugo, Pedroia or Cora. Let's give him a better look.

[TheKilo]

I think he just needs to be moved down in the order, but it wouldn't hurt during these NL games.

[TheKilo]

I'm dumb.

[Cocos Disciples]

At least the thread bumping goes both ways.

[MANNYHOF24]

LOL

[Soxfan1]

Just pay someone to bump your threads and decide which one's are LOLWUT and which ones are I'm Dumb.

[BSN07]

LOL atleast you can admit it, i've thrown out some stinkers before but this one is $. Definatley rivals some of all time Homer Simpson moments......."doooooh":thumbsup:

[BSN07]

the more aggressive approach works well with someone who isnt maximizing his ability. I have a feeling that last season' date=' Pedroia pretty much maxed his physical ability with his performance[/b']. This isnt like a Ryan Howard who is just taking too many pitches. This is a little pest who hit >.300 last yr with some pop. I wouldnt have touched a thing.

 

doooooh:lol:

[BSN07]

I believe its more of this. Second year players a good majority of the time regress a littlle when theres more info out there on them. Now we will see if Pedroia is able to adjust like the good hitters in the league.

 

 

$:thumbsup: He made great adjustments, and is going to be a some consideration for MVP.

[BSN07]

His approach f***ing sucks and someone needs to tell him that.

 

Drop him in the order and bat Youkilis 2nd.

 

doooh!dooooh!

[BSN07]

Ok I'm done, looking back on some of these threads is good stuff...

[NomahsHammSammich]

Pedroia is looking pretty good as his main competitors seem to have leveled off.

 

1. Quentin is done and likely needed a 40 HR season and a White Sox division crown to win.

 

2. Hamilton has cooled off considerably and plays for a terrible team.

 

3. Morneau and Mauer should split up the votes and there is a good chance the Twins do not make the post season.

 

4. Sizemore plays for a weak team and I doubt you see the MVP and Cy Young come from a non-playoff team.

 

5. Arod has not had an A-rod-like season.

 

 

When you factor in that Pedroia will likely win a gold glove, batting title, score 125-plus runs, hit nearly 20 Hr's, 80-plus RBI's, near 20 SB's, a near .900 OPS... I think he is the clear frontrunner at this juncture.

 

Also, while Youks may split up some of Pedro's votes, the one consistent player in the Sox lineup all year has been Pedroia. Drew, Ortiz, and Lowell all missed significant time and even Youks has missed somegames in recent weeks. As the Red Sox have distanced themselves from the pack in the Wild Card, Pedroia has been the spark-plug and cornerstone of the offense.

[BoSox21]

I'm dumb.

 

credit to you, man

 

honestly, anyone who predicted he'd be this good was drunk, high or lying

[Mr Crunchy]

i was once of the mindset that dusty would be a major league hitter when my grandmother grew a fingernail on her dick....

that swing is unbelievable for a lil guy,hes got the bat speed to make it work but if i know anything about anything its that he will have to shorten it eventually.

he must have the best set of eyes in the game,swinging from the heels on every pitch and making contact all the time is simply amazing.

[BSN07]

credit to you, man

 

honestly, anyone who predicted he'd be this good was drunk, high or lying

 

 

 

 

:thumbsup: I backed him against all the doubters here. The same people saying Cora should get more time. And against the few on here who thought he was expendable and Lowrie could easily take over.