Replacing the Captain

[TheKilo]

Well, I'm going to up and say it.

 

Tek is an offensive liability now.

 

It has been getting progressively worse and worse, and I think this year it hits rock bottom.

 

He's invaluable to the pitching staff, but at what time to do we look to replace him on a longterm basis?

 

This comment stuck with me from last night's game thread. I agree with this line of thinking. I will acknowledge that he was one of the better offensive catchers in the game last year, but the games in Japan made him look awfully bad. Then again, he just turned in two solid games in a row.

 

I don't think Varitek is an "offensive liability." I do think his defense is massively overrated, and replacing him is going to happen sooner than later.

 

What's the future for Jason Varitek? What can we expect out of him this year and moving forward?

[das11209]

The last two games he sort of redeemed himself. But I still think unless he pulls a Posada (aka late offensive explossion from an old catcher) - this should be his last year with the Sox. I do not buy into his intangibles - and as someone already said his game calling ability is questionable is last 2 years. You can always predict a shoulder high pitch on a 0-2 count from Tek.

 

The obvious problem is - who is going to replace him? That's the reason I think he will be back for 2 years with us unless we can find an answer this year. I still get mad about the Mirabelli trade - we will not be having this discussion now if Theo did not rush it.

[ORS]

I wouldn't call his defense massively overrated. It's no secret he doesn't have the best arm, but I think there's much more to defense than that. He's an above average receiver of the ball, and he reportedly is excellent at retaining the scouting report and applying it to the game, something that gives his pitchers a lot of confidence. I think that last part is an important thing that is often overlooked.

 

What's his future? Beyond this year, if he wants to keep catching, I suspect they'll keep him around for a limited amount of time. I also think they need to start working in a replacement. If Kottaras shows even a little promise this year, they should platoon the two next year.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Every major system had Varitek's 2008 somewhere between his 2007 and his 2006...no precipitous drops in the mix, despite his age.

 

The future remains Tek. Whether or not the future includes Kottaras depends upon his ability to show that 2007 was a fluke, and that may have been the case. But the future is Tek as the "starting" catcher with his games caught diminishing over the next 3-7 years.

 

And yes, I typed "seven." That's within the reasonable range, IMHO.

[mAAAbs]

I really don't see any reason to replace him right now. As long as he can still play quality defense behind the plate, he is too valuable to let walk just because he only hits 1 out of 4. It's not like there is a lineup of quality every day catchers available. I don't see why people are trying to rush him out the door, even if he is losing his offensive game, he still ranks as one of the best offensive cathcers.

[sabermatters]

Joe Mauer is a free agent after the 2010 season, he'll be around 27 at the time. If he goes into the market, which I see about a 10% chance of, I see the Red Sox paying top dollar for a five-year deal with him. That's only if they don't acquire some sort of catching prospects the next season or two or make a move to acquire somebody proven.

[BoSox21]

look, he's still an invaluable cog in the Red Sox machine and will probably still give you a .250 average with between 15-20 homers for the next 2-3 years. Obviously, it would be nice if we had a blue chip catching prospect ready to slide in and take his place but these days, those are hard to find for any team.

 

I'm sure the club is hoping Kottaras is that guy but worst case, they'll go out and get someone as a free agent who will put up roughly the same offensive numbers but probably won't give the team the same defense and intangibles as Tek and the team will just have to win without that

[jacksonianmarch]

Anyone notice a trend when Vtek gets hurt? Sox tank. I never knew a mediocre offensive catcher had THAT much impact on the lineup. I dont know what it is. If the quality of the backup is the issue, then maybe the pitchers in 06 and 02? arent as confident or were shaky without him there? I dunno. But for right now, a catcher that can receive well and give you .250 with 15HR and a good OBP is a solid offensive contributor. Dont overlook that.

[YAZMAN]

Anyone notice a trend when Vtek gets hurt? Sox tank. I never knew a mediocre offensive catcher had THAT much impact on the lineup. I dont know what it is. If the quality of the backup is the issue' date=' then maybe the pitchers in 06 and 02? arent as confident or were shaky without him there? I dunno. But for right now, a catcher that can receive well and give you .250 with 15HR and a good OBP is a solid offensive contributor. Dont overlook that.[/quote']

 

*Jacko returns to sticking pins into his Tek voodoo doll*

[rician blast]

*Jacko returns to sticking pins into his Tek voodoo doll*

 

Well, it beats him sticking his tool in a blow-up doll.

 

sorry, Riv. Had to, just had to.

[VandaleIndustries]

It's VERY WELL documented that the Green Monstah used to be the biggest problem facing the Sox. We always wanted that power right hander and it never got us anywhere until the day we realized pitching is kind of important.

 

Yeah, I read the comment about the 0-2 shoulder high fastball... Fine, I'll admit I've called that once or twice myself, but still, how did the count get to 0-2 and are you THAT worried about someone crushing an 0-2 shoulder high fastball? And it's not like EVERY time the count's 0-2 he calls for it up high. Either way, 0-2 is a good count for a ball, and see if they chase.

 

What Tek does for pitchers can't be questioned, in my mind. You'll have to really work hard to convince me he's not the best on the game as far as working with the pitching staff to put them in the best position to succeed. The offense isn't always going to be there, every team and every player has slumps, and I'm glad we have Tek behind the plate to make sure our pitching staff doesn't get clobbered. Give me a 1-0 game any day, and Tek's the guy I want calling that game.

[MDF3530]

Varitek's baseball career will not be over when his playing days are through. He'd make a good coach.

[TheKilo]

I think his gamecalling abilities are massively overrated. Just because people say those things doesn't mean it's true. IF they were, wouldn't Jason Johnson, etc. have become a decent starter?

[das11209]

Meanwhile in Bronx

 

Some old catcher who cashed out last year failed to show up for the second day with stiff shoulder.

 

It will be wise to keep an eye on Posada - might tell what is in future for V-Tek.

 

Edit - Just because the thread is 'Replacing the Captain' - how about replacing the pretty boy in the Bronx? Jeter continues his streak of hitting into DP from last year.

[VA Sox Fan]

**YAWN** :rolleyes:

[ksushi]

I think his gamecalling abilities are massively overrated. Just because people say those things doesn't mean it's true. IF they were' date=' wouldn't Jason Johnson, etc. have become a decent starter?[/quote']

 

 

See, I think the only people who can comment on a catchers game calling ability are the pitchers and the manager. If they mention as such a strong point as often as they do, their must be something to that. Guys like Posada, Mcann and Martin are elite backstops, but they don't get that kind of praise about their game calling.

 

What is certainly overrated, at least around here, is the impact game calling has on the field. I was reading a thread on here recently where somebody called out tek's game calling ability and someone else responded with "Yeah? What about Buchholz's no hitter? What about Schill's 1 hitter? Etc. etc." I don't think you can credit a catcher with any single performance by a pitcher. To have a great game the pitcher has to execute pitches. Period. I think you can look at the body of work of the pitching staff over the course of a season and figure that any pitcher on any given day feels they can trust Tek when they're in a jam or a hitter has them set up. They can trust them to know the holes in their swing and they can trust him to know what the hitter might be looking for in a certain count. The combined knowledge of opposing lineups between a pitching staff and the catcher is probably factors in significantly over the course of a season, but even though it is necessarily quantifiable with numbers, I'd be willing to bet its more valuable to have a catcher who can rake in the middle of the lineup (not that those exist anymore) than it is to have a catcher who can "handle a staff".

 

I like Tek, and I think its funny that everyone was ready to throw him to the dogs after a couple of games in Japan and then he comes back to the states and mashes. Tek will do his usual .250ish 15ish 60ish thing, and provide some stability behind the plate for the staff and be of above average (catchers) value for the sox. When you consider the other options behind the plate, you have to figure they will get a deal done for another year or two and ease kotteras in as a platoon for the short-term until something can be worked out to bring in a reliable everyday back stop with a little more in the tank than Tek.

 

All that said, his swing started to look pretty brutal at times last september

[HeadOfSoxNation]

I didn't say anything about his game calling or his defense...I talked about his value to the pitching staff. That takes into account a number of things, the majority of which are behind-the-scenes. I really wish there was a way to check this, but I guarantee if you did an anonymous survey of all the arms in the league as to what catcher they want to throw to, Tek would get the majority of first place votes. Pitchers love this guy...there has to be a reason for it even if we don't see it on the field.

 

Regardless...Tek's days are numbered in Boston for the first time ever, IMO. He's the 2010 catcher, maximum. If his replacement isn't Kottaras, then we'd better start looking around soon.

[ksushi]

I didn't say anything about his game calling or his defense...I talked about his value to the pitching staff. That takes into account a number of things, the majority of which are behind-the-scenes. I really wish there was a way to check this, but I guarantee if you did an anonymous survey of all the arms in the league as to what catcher they want to throw to, Tek would get the majority of first place votes. Pitchers love this guy...there has to be a reason for it even if we don't see it on the field.

 

Regardless...Tek's days are numbered in Boston for the first time ever, IMO. He's the 2010 catcher, maximum. If his replacement isn't Kottaras, then we'd better start looking around soon.

 

Eh? I was quoting and responding to someone else entirely. Unless you're talking to someone else. In which case I say "LOL".

 

Oh how I love the quote button.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

Eh? I was quoting and responding to someone else entirely. Unless you're talking to someone else. In which case I say "LOL".

 

Oh how I love the quote button.

 

The first comment on the first page, posted by Kilo, was my comment from last night's gamethread. I wasn't responding to anyone in particular, moreso clarifying my point of view.

 

SO LEAVE ME ALONE, OK?!?!?!?!

[ksushi]

Lol. All I can do is say I hope by 2010 we're not looking at at Tek behind the plate with no viable options knocking on the door.

[SCM33]

Lol. All I can do is say I hope by 2010 we're not looking at at Tek behind the plate with no viable options knocking on the door.

 

Agree. Hes had a couple of good games, but even when hes making contact, he still looks awful.

 

On the missed HR (long double) the other day which the Umpires robbed him......if you watch that swing, it seriously looks like its in slow motion. The swing is really terrible. Sooner or later it will be obvious that he cant catch up to fastballs belt-up in the zone, and god knows he likes to chase them, couple that with the fact that any type of breaking pitch down and in on him (batting LH) completely eats him up while he flails at it, and hes got some serious holes in his swing.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Agree (that I hope by 2010 we're not looking at at Tek behind the plate with no viable options knocking on the door). Hes had a couple of good games, but even when hes making contact, he still looks awful.

 

On the missed HR (long double) the other day which the Umpires robbed him......if you watch that swing, it seriously looks like its in slow motion. The swing is really terrible. Sooner or later it will be obvious that he cant catch up to fastballs belt-up in the zone, and god knows he likes to chase them, couple that with the fact that any type of breaking pitch down and in on him (batting LH) completely eats him up while he flails at it, and hes got some serious holes in his swing.

 

If you check BP PECOTA, Jason Varitek is running out of comparable players. Here are his BP top 20, in alphabetical order by first name:

 

Aaron Robinson

Alan Ashby

Bobby Bonilla

Boog Powell

Carlton Fisk

Chris Chambliss

Deron Johnson

Eddie Mathews

Ellis Burks

Fred McGriff

Gil Hodges

Jamie Quirk

Jim Hickman

Jim Thome

Joe Adcock

Jorge Posada

Ken Singleton

Lance Parrish

Sammy Sosa

Todd Pratt

 

Most of these players are aging sluggers, not large-but-nimble catchers. That’s very unusual: BP comparables are almost invariably players from the same position. Varitek’s hitting has surpassed that of other 35-year-old catchers by so much that his best comparables are mostly All Star-caliber corner infielders and outfielders. But the decline of slow-moving sluggers will offer little insight regarding what we can expect from Tek. Let’s look at the ones who meet this modest set of criteria indicating that they were at least half-time catchers:

 

1) They caught 243 or more games between ages 33 and 35, and

2) They caught 81 or games at age 35

 

Here is the new list of comparable players, in the correct order of descending comparability:

 

Jorge Posada

Lance Parrish

Aaron Robinson

Carlton Fisk

Alan Ashby

 

Let’s look at these five catchers a bit closer.

 

Jorge Posada has five Silver Sluggers and five All Star Games to his credit. Only three catchers in MLB history have won more Silver Sluggers than Jorge Posada: Lance Parrish, Pudge Rodriguez, and Mike Piazza. Posada is Varitek’s age, so his future is unknown. He would currently be a marginal HOF candidate.

 

Lance Parrish had six Silver Sluggers and eight All Star Games before retiring. Parrish declined swiftly starting at age 35—actually, he started to decline on a reasonable curve for a catcher after age 27, but he had a bizarre season in 1990 at age 34, probably his career best, and his decline continued on the other side of 34 as if his great year had never happened. Were it not for his freak year at age 34, though, Lance Parrish might not have been good enough to be among Jason Varitek’s twenty best comparable players.

 

Aaron Robinson has an interesting story. He was one of the good-to-great players who never got a chance to play in MLB in their primes back before the establishment of the modern MiLB systems and the Rule 5 Draft. The Yankees bought him in 1938 and eventually stashed him in Newark, but he was blocked by Bill Dickey and he didn’t get an MLB at bat until age 28 in 1943, when the Yankees brought him up for one strikeout before he went off to World War Two. Starting his real MLB career at age 30 in late 1945, probably three years past his peak already, he hit .281/.368/.481 in 50 games for an OPS+ of 141 in his rookie debut. He was 16th in MVP voting in 1946, and he was an All Star in 1947. Traded away to the White Sox to make room for Yogi Berra, he had a league-average season at the plate but he began to decline on defense. The next year, 1949, he had a resurgence at the plate in limited playing time with Detroit, hitting .269/.402/.423 in 331 at bats. At age 35 in 1950 his batting average dove for the Mendoza Line, and after two more years as a bench player he was gone.

 

Carlton Fisk had three Silver Sluggers, eleven All Star games, 1.27 MVP Award Shares, a Rookie of the Year Award, and so many years playing baseball that by the end of it his two closest comparable players at the same age were Julio Franco and Minnie Minoso. Carlton Fisk is, of course, in the Hall of Fame.

 

Alan Ashby was a journeyman catcher who couldn’t hit well in his twenties and who couldn’t field well in his thirties. He had his best season at the plate at age 35, in the hitters’ year 1987, nudging him into Varitek’s comparables, but he declined swiftly and was out of baseball after two more years.

 

Of these five catchers, only two are good comparables: Fisk and Posada. Parrish and Robinson were clearly declining by Varitek’s age, and Alan Ashby’s best year wasn’t as good as Varitek’s last year (or four of the five previous years).

 

When your only two good comparable players are Jorge Posada and Carlton Fisk, even at age 36 your future can be rosy. Furthermore, Posada is clearly losing his ability to catch--Varitek is doing well behind the plate. Jason Varitek has an excellent chance, IMO, of exceeding both normal aging curves for catchers and his current PECOTA projection. If he ages anything like the way Fisk aged, he’s got several good years left.

 

And, as a final aside, Fisk hit his career high for home runs when he was a year older than Tek is now.

 

***

 

I think his gamecalling abilities are massively overrated. Just because people say those things doesn't mean it's true. IF they were, wouldn't Jason Johnson, etc. have become a decent starter?

 

Well, Jason Johnson was betrayed by the defense in Boston. He was getting ground balls and his middle infield couldn't range effectively, so he looked like crap, but he pitched at better than replacement-level with Boston despite the high ERA. Furthermore, Terry Francona was terrible about pulling him when he became ineffective--he was good for 75 pitches, not the 90-100 most starters can throw. Go back and look at the Game Logs--you'll see what I mean.

 

That said, otherwise you're right. If you weren't right, there'd be this big gaping hole in the stats that could be attributed to catchers' game-calling. It's just not there--it's not there for any catcher. Sabermetricians have been through the whole CERA thing, and it's been disproven.

 

Can I find small sample sizes supporting Tek's greatness as a game caller? Probably. They might reflect pitcher-catcher rapport and synergy--but a whole lot of better stats guys than me have looked at catchers' game calling as a factor and they've disproven that it makes a difference.

[Mr Crunchy]

pencil tek in for 250+ 15-17hrs 68-75 rbi and another trip to the playoffs.

hes not to be confused for bob montgomery mark sullivan or tony pena for that matter.

you can almost hide his bat in our lineup if lowell has another great year.

if he dont we may need a few hits out of him that matter.

 

he can look bloody awful at times and we would like a reliable guy who can catch 50 games for us in lieu of wearing tek down.

[SCM33]

And' date=' as a final aside, Fisk hit his career high for home runs when he was a year older than Tek is now. [/quote']

 

I can see the comparisons on all levels. The major difference is that Fisk was capable of putting up those power numbers, so it made his low batting average/OBP acceptable bc his slugging % was still pretty high.

 

The year Fisk hit 38 HR, he had a 238 average and a abysmal .320 OB%, but he slugged .488 and drove in 107 runs (and also stole 17 bases)

 

Besides 2003, Tek has never put up those types of numbers, and that was 5 years ago when he was clearly in his prime.

 

All the numbers in the world cannot change what people see with their eyes right now, in the end we will see how it all plays out, but from what we see right now, I think its pretty clear he will not enjoy the same longevity, and this season will continue the downward slide. He was very good last year, but each year he slides a little bit more and more, which is totally predicted.

 

Posada is above them both offensively, and I think he has the more realistic chance of coming close to Fisks longevity (although I see a move to 1B or DH coming shortly in his future). Tek doesnt hit well enough to serve in the DH capacity, plus we already have a lock there.

 

EDIT: Baseball has changed alot of the last 20 years as well. Guys who hit .238 dont have a chance to put up those types of numbers anymore, bc they simply dont get enough ABS. Guys who hit .238 now are on the bench (regardless of OB% and OPS and SLG) unless your name is Adam Dunn. Everyone loves to talk about VORP, or OB% or OPS, but the guys who put up those high numbers, also have respectable averages, although BA is a terrible measuring stick. There is a medium between the two.

Proof? See Russell Branyan or Mark Bellhorn.

[SCM33]

Per WEEI at 0105 hours.....

 

RedSox GM seeking a catcher.......hmmmm

[Gom]

Every major system had Varitek's 2008 somewhere between his 2007 and his 2006...no precipitous drops in the mix, despite his age.

 

The future remains Tek. Whether or not the future includes Kottaras depends upon his ability to show that 2007 was a fluke, and that may have been the case. But the future is Tek as the "starting" catcher with his games caught diminishing over the next 3-7 years.

 

And yes, I typed "seven." That's within the reasonable range, IMHO.

You truly expect Varitek to be starting catcher at the age of 42? The guy is an old 35. His bat speed has decreased drastically. He hit .238 and .255 in the last two seasons, respectively. He will not get better, he will continue his decline. By age of 42, he'd be lucky to break .200

 

Where I have a lot of respect for him as a player, I don't have any believe he has a chance in hell of being a starting catcher in seven years. For any team in baseball. I caught for a season. I ached every day. I was also 16. Posada can be a starting catcher at 40 because he can hit. Varitek is quickly becoming an offensive liability, and at that age, he will be a defensive liability. That's like Yankee fans saying that Jeter will be the starting Yankee shortstop when he's 45. When that happens, then Varitek will be a starting catcher at 42.

 

I for one, hope he is your starting catcher for the next seven years. That means you are playing for fourth place and that your farm system is outright terrible.

 

You consider what you said reasonable? I respect most of your baseball opinions, but on this one, you totally s*** the bed.

[Gom]

Can I find small sample sizes supporting Tek's greatness as a game caller? Probably.

You mean like calling 26 straight fastballs from Beckett in a game in 2006? Sure you do. That's exactly what you mean, I know.

[ORS]

You mean like calling 26 straight fastballs from Beckett in a game in 2006? Sure you do. That's exactly what you mean' date=' I know.[/quote']

What do you think was happening when Beckett shook his head that year?

[jacksonianmarch]

ball in dirt or ball in stands

[Gom]

LOL!

 

Hey Jacko, too bad you had work...I threw out 9 tickets the last two days