Sox release Mirabelli

[VA Sox Fan]

Lets just say, for a second here, that you made one post, just one, that wasn't a Red Sox doomsday scenario or a MFY pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

 

Would that constitute the breaking of the seventh seal?

 

LMAO again YAZ!!

[ORS]

so the entire 3 yr span that I just showed you can be explained by "the worm turning". Arent you a sabremetric nut? Does Bill James preach about a turning of a worm?

No, James wouldn't go anywhere with the data at hand, and for good reason. Over the last three years, only one catcher has caught him with any kind of consistency. The rest have accumulated 5x less innings caught in snap-shots that didn't span any appreciable time. The ERA data is worthless for analysis.

 

I'm at work, so I don't have the time to look into the contact types, pitch selection, overall BABIP, and BABIP by pitch type. Those are where I'd start to try and determine if his battery mate had any impact on his stuff.

[ORS]

I did have time for this though. Here's fun bit of trivia. Josh Bard was, by far, the worst to receive the knuckleball from Wake over that three year period. Horrible. Guess how impactful that was?

 

32.1 IP, 3.89 ERA

 

Doh!

[Jayhawk Bill]

Lets just say' date=' for a second here, that Wakefield meets his career averages in the middle. He isnt quite as bad as he was without Belli, but he isnt quite as good as he was with Belli due to the loss of Doug and age factoring in. That leaves him with an ERA right around 5. Is a hot/cold knuckleballer with an ERA around 5 going to be a boon to your team when right now he is being counted on as a #3?[/quote']

 

Let's just say, for a second here, that you've dodged the point about unusual bad luck with BABIP in a small sample size that I raised in response to your allegations way back on the first page. If you return Wakefield's BABIP to its three-year norms, he's smack dab where he would've been with Mirabelli catching him...maybe better.

 

The bad ERA with Cash was a fluke.

 

I believe that I watched every game where Cash caught Wakefield. Cash wasn't just OK, he was great: there was never any hesitation by Wakefield to throw the knuckleball because of who was catching him. That was the sole advantage of having Mirabelli behind home plate: it doesn't take great game-calling skill to catch a knuckleball 95% of the time. Cash was better at blocking Wakefield's wild pitches; he was also better overall on defense, including turning a bases-loaded double play as if he were a second baseman on the pivot.

 

***

 

I like Doug Mirabelli and I'll miss him. Cash doesn't have Mirabelli's power. That said, Mirabelli doesn't have Cash's comparative youth nor his superlative fielding skills, and given that Cash is hitting the ball well and that Brown is another option, releasing Mirabelli makes sense.

 

IMO. As always, YMMV.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I did have time for this though. Here's fun bit of trivia. Josh Bard was, by far, the worst to receive the knuckleball from Wake over that three year period. Horrible. Guess how impactful that was?

 

32.1 IP, 3.89 ERA

 

Doh!

 

Yeah, but Bard had cost Boston a game with his defense right before Theo pulled the trigger on the trade, IIRC.

[ORS]

Yeah' date=' but Bard had cost Boston a game with his defense right before Theo pulled the trigger on the trade, IIRC.[/quote']

Like I said, he was the worst, yet his ERA performance receiving Wake was better than Mirabelli. The intent was to show that the metric of analysis was worthless.

[TheKilo]

Lets just say' date=' for a second here, that Wakefield meets his career averages in the middle. He isnt quite as bad as he was without Belli, but he isnt quite as good as he was with Belli due to the loss of Doug and age factoring in. That leaves him with an ERA right around 5. Is a hot/cold knuckleballer with an ERA around 5 going to be a boon to your team when right now he is being counted on as a #3?[/quote']

 

Beckett

DiceK

Lester

Buchholz

Wakefield...

 

By my math, that's a #5.

[Gom]

Beckett

DiceK

Lester

Buchholz

Wakefield...

 

By my math, that's a #5.

You guys are in the same boat as us. Two rookies in your rotation.

 

You know, without Schilling, our rotations look very similar

 

Beckett>>Wang

Matsuzaka

Hughes=Buchholz

Lester>Kennedy

Wakefield=Mussina

 

The rotations are pretty even, a big advantage to you guys as an ace.

 

I consider the pens pretty even with Chamberlain in the pen for the Yankees. Our hitting is much better than yours. Should be another close race.

[TheKilo]

You guys are in the same boat as us. Two rookies in your rotation.

 

You know, without Schilling, our rotations look very similar

 

Beckett>>Wang

Matsuzaka

Hughes=Buchholz

Lester>Kennedy

Wakefield=Mussina

 

The rotations are pretty even, a big advantage to you guys as an ace.

 

I consider the pens pretty even with Chamberlain in the pen for the Yankees. Our hitting is much better than yours. Should be another close race.

 

I agree. Now don't say anything about the Yankees running away with anything.

[Jayhawk Bill]

You guys are in the same boat as us. Two rookies in your rotation.

 

Cool! Jon Lester for Rookie of the Year!

[MANNYHOF24]

You guys are in the same boat as us. Two rookies in your rotation.

 

You know, without Schilling, our rotations look very similar

 

Beckett>>Wang

Matsuzaka

Hughes=Buchholz

Lester>Kennedy

Wakefield=Mussina

 

The rotations are pretty even, a big advantage to you guys as an ace.

 

I consider the pens pretty even with Chamberlain in the pen for the Yankees. Our hitting is much better than yours. Should be another close race.

 

 

I pretty much agree, however I think our offense will be closer to yours this year. Do you realize how many guys had down years last year for us? If Manny, Drew and Lugo can go back to their career norms, our offense is going to put up a tun of runs. Plus having Jacoby instead of Crisp deepens the back end of our lineup immensey.

[MANNYHOF24]

As for the Douggie move, I just dont understand it. Cash is the same offensively as Doug. At least there was a chance that Doug could pop one out of the park once in a while. It is puzzling seeing as how they have to pay him anyway and it was only a one year deal. Strange move.

[BSN07]

You guys are in the same boat as us. Two rookies in your rotation.

 

You know, without Schilling, our rotations look very similar

 

Beckett>>Wang

Matsuzaka

Hughes=Buchholz

Lester>Kennedy

Wakefield=Mussina

 

The rotations are pretty even, a big advantage to you guys as an ace.

 

I consider the pens pretty even with Chamberlain in the pen for the Yankees. Our hitting is much better than yours. Should be another close race.

 

Beckett>Wang

Dice-K

Lester=Hughes(Hughes has more upside, Lester is a little more proven.)

Colon>Mussina

Wake>Kennedy

[mAAAbs]

Damn. Backup cather certainly isn't a glory position, but Mirabelli played it and played it well. I thank him for his many years with the Sox, and I will miss him.

[RedSoxRooter]

I'll miss Belli. I just liked the guy..

 

That said, sure, he is old and a crappy hitter. But the most important thing he did was spell Tek and catch Wake at the same time. And he was good at it.

 

Kevin Cash may be a defensive upgrade at this point and he may provide the same services that Dougie did in respect to Tek and Wake. But do any of you realize just how truly terrible a hitter Cash is? He's like the crappiest hitter at the Major League level. He's a career .167 hitter. CAREER. His best year he hit .193.

 

I'm betting it's only a matter of months before the Kevin Cash experiment ends and Koteras is called up.

 

Sometimes Theo and the guys make changes just for the sake of making changes. This smells of that.

 

Good luck with the Tigers or whoever, Dougie. Cash, you got no chance.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Kevin Cash may be a defensive upgrade at this point and he may provide the same services that Dougie did in respect to Tek and Wake. But do any of you realize just how truly terrible a hitter Cash is? He's like the crappiest hitter at the Major League level. He's a career .167 hitter. CAREER. His best year he hit .193.

 

Do you realize how good a defender Kevin Cash is? BP has him as worth 10 runs or more to his team per 100 games in all three of his last MLB seasons. For a catcher, that's extraordinary, and that third season he did it mostly catching Tim Wakefield. Mirabelli was around 10 runs per 100 games below average in recent years...Cash is way better. :thumbsup:

 

Regarding hitting, Cash's PECOTA projection is a .205/.278/.326 batting line. That's higher than his MLB career line, but it's appropriate to his MiLB career .247/.325/.422 batting line. That's better than his MLB stats--acquired in sporadic use--would lead one to expect. Furthermore, the ISOD and ISOP are pretty good...the BA understates his value.

 

Let's give Kevin Cash a chance.

[CrespoBlows]

Beckett>Wang

Dice-K

Lester=Hughes(Hughes has more upside, Lester is a little more proven.)

Colon>Mussina ?

Wake>Kennedy

 

?

[BSN07]

?

 

What? Colon and Mussina are both injury risks. But Colon's upside far exceeds that of Mussina's.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Colon's upside far exceeds that of Mussina's.

 

Ummmm....no. Not even close. Please don't make me "go stats."

 

What IS true is that Colon's upside is more valuable than Mussina's likely value, and that Colon looks to be headed for an upside season after two very disappointing years. :thumbsup:

[BSN07]

Ummmm....no. Not even close. Please don't make me "go stats."

 

What IS true is that Colon's upside is more valuable than Mussina's likely value, and that Colon looks to be headed for an upside season after two very disappointing years. :thumbsup:

 

You disagree with me, but make my point in your next sentence?:dunno:

[TheKilo]

You disagree with me' date=' but make my point in your next sentence?:dunno:[/quote']

 

Mussina's upside value =/= likely value.

 

Mussina's likely value > Colon's likely value

[Jayhawk Bill]

You disagree with me' date=' but make my point in your next sentence?:dunno:[/quote']

 

 

Just trying to find common ground, BSN07.

 

Mussina's upside is scary high...Cy Young-contending high. Pitchers similar to Mussina have rebounded from two "disappointing" (but still pretty good) MLB seasons to have excellent years at his age.

 

Colon has had two BAD years. His upside is maybe 100-odd IP at a 3.00 ERA, or 150-odd IP at a 4.00 ERA...either very good, but hardly contending for the best season of any pitcher in the AL.

 

Mussina's upside is higher than Colon's.

 

What I see, though, and what seems to be your point, is that Colon looks to be pitching near his upside while Mussina may not be. That augurs well.

[BSN07]

Just trying to find common ground, BSN07.

 

Mussina's upside is scary high...Cy Young-contending high. Pitchers similar to Mussina have rebounded from two "disappointing" (but still pretty good) MLB seasons to have excellent years at his age.

Colon has had two BAD years. His upside is maybe 100-odd IP at a 3.00 ERA, or 150-odd IP at a 4.00 ERA...either very good, but hardly contending for the best season of any pitcher in the AL.

 

Mussina's upside is higher than Colon's.

 

What I see, though, and what seems to be your point, is that Colon looks to be pitching near his upside while Mussina may not be. That augurs well.

 

Mussina, Cy Young? Honestly Bill :wtf: No pitcher gets better at 38 then they where at 28,. Not unless PEDS are involved in most cases. Theres not a whole lot of "Freak of Natures". And Mussina at his highest was a Cy Young contender, but i'm pretty sure he never won one. So no, this statement is bogus and actually shocking coming from you, did you lose a bet to Gom or Jacko?

 

Guys who have excellent season at 38+ are on something (Clemens), or have changed leagues, (usually AL to NL) or DON'T have to pitch in the lineup stacked AL East. We all know soft tossing curveball, change up happy guys don't fair well in this division. And don't give me Schilling either, he had one really good season, 1 passable, and 2 injury riddled, and his arm is hanging by the perverveil thread.

 

 

What do you consider to be an excellent season?

 

Mussina might get you more innings, maybe... both are injury risks, we all now this. Mussina if he can stay healthy might get you more inning threw the entire season, but Colon has a better chance of giving quality innings. I'll take 120 IP of 4 ERA ball, then 160 IP of 5 ERA ball. The Sox have the depth to cover the 40 less inning or so. I only give these number of innings as a comparable, not saying these are exactly what they will get. Although there pretty fair estimate.

[BSN07]

Jacko, YES radar gun has him at 92-94MPH, and a hi of 95MPH from what I've seen so far.

 

Albeit a little wild, but it's only his 2nd start of the spring.

 

LOL the Yanks do own him tho:D

[Jayhawk Bill]

Mussina' date=' Cy Young? Honestly Bill :wtf: No pitcher gets better at 38 then they where at 28[/quote']

 

Well, let's check to see if Mike Mussina ever contended for a Cy Young Award seriously enough to get any votes. Yeah, he did, a couple of years:

 

1992-AL-4

1994-AL-4

1995-AL-5

1996-AL-5

1997-AL-6

1999-AL-2

2000-AL-6

2001-AL-5

 

Given that I said "Mussina's upside is scary high...Cy Young-contending high," not "Cy Young-winning high," I'm only suggesting that Mussina might be as good at age 39 as he's already been eight times in his MLB career...not better than he was at age 28.

 

But, since you mention it, at age 28 he went 15-8. At age 37 he went 15-7. Are you suggesting that a pitcher can never do better at age 39 than he did at age 37?

 

Not unless PEDS are involved in most cases. Theres not a whole lot of "Freak of Natures". And Mussina at his highest was a Cy Young contender, but i'm pretty sure he never won one.

 

Guys who have excellent season at 38+ are on something (Clemens), or have changed leagues, (usually AL to NL) or DON'T have to pitch in the lineup stacked AL East.

 

I've always suspected that Spud Chandler was juicing. And Jamie Moyer. And Jim Perry. And Warren Spahn (especially Warren Spahn). And Bert Blyleven. And Preacher Roe. And Lefty Grove. And Steve Carlton. And maybe Roger Clemens, Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, David Cone and Nolan Ryan. And certainly Gaylord Perry--heck, you could see the tobacco juice stains he left on the ball!

 

Those are all pitchers who had very good seasons at age 38. There are more: I think that I've made my point.

 

But Mike Mussina is going to be 39--let's look at age 39, and let's be a little more critical--let's look for comeback seasons from an ERA+ around or under 100.

 

Early Wynn went from 14-16 at age 38 to 22-10 at age 39, dropping his ERA by almost a run...Rick Reuschel's bad year was at age 37, not age 38, but he came back from a 9-16 record to a 19-11 record at age 39...David Wells went from 5-7 at age 38 to 19-7 at age 39...Kenny Rogers went from 13-8 to 18-9 at age 39...Sal Maglie went from 9-7 to 13-5, with an ERA+ of 140 and 191 IP at age 39...Fergie Jenkins went from 5-8 to 14-15, with an ERA+ of 118 and 217 IP, for the hapless 1982 Cubs, at age 39...Don Sutton went from 8-13 to 14-12 at age 39...and let's not forget that Connie Marrero improved in ERA+ at ages 39, 40 and 41, probably hitting his peak at age 40.

 

Gaylord Perry, of course, won a Cy Young at age 39, but he pitched well at age 38, too, and we all now know that he juiced.

 

We all know soft tossing curveball, change up happy guys don't fair well in this division. And don't give me Schilling either, he had one really good season, 1 passable, and 2 injury riddled, and his arm is hanging by the perverveil thread.

 

Curt Schilling went from 8-8 to 15-7 at age 39.

 

What do you consider to be an excellent season?

 

Mussina's 90th percentile PECOTA is a 3.60 ERA in 174 IP. That would probably put him in the top 20 pitchers in the AL. There's roughly a 10% chance that Mussina would do even better, if you follow PECOTA. When one does better than being in the top 20, it's not a far reach to one's being a Cy Young candidate...particularly in New York, particularly with the Yankees batting order scoring your runs for you.

 

Mussina might get you more innings, maybe... both are injury risks, we all now this. Mussina if he can stay healthy might get you more inning threw the entire season, but Colon has a better chance of giving quality innings. I'll take 120 IP of 4 ERA ball, then 160 IP of 5 ERA ball. The Sox have the depth to cover the 40 less inning or so. I only give these number of innings as a comparable, not saying these are exactly what they will get. Although there pretty fair estimate.

 

I expect Mussina to pitch more innings. Right now I think that it's nip-and-tuck which one will end up with a better ERA--but keep in mind that Colon was a throwaway for a reason, and that he's far too heavy for his role.

 

But your challenge regarded my estimation of upside for Mussina. I've given you several cases of pitchers who CAME BACK at age 39. There are more who simply did well: these are all pitchers who had been mediocre to bad, but who had regained their greatness. My list isn't inclusive: there are probably more.

 

So no, this statement is bogus and actually shocking coming from you, did you lose a bet to Gom or Jacko?

 

I'm shocked that you would even suggest such a thing.

 

No, I'm serious: Mike Mussina's UPSIDE is Cy Young-contending caliber. It's just that I don't see Mussina approaching his upside...hope that I'm right on that account.

[BSN07]

Jayhawk Bill;316077;]Well, let's check to see if Mike Mussina ever contended for a Cy Young Award seriously enough to get any votes. Yeah, he did, a couple of years:

 

1992-AL-4

1994-AL-4

1995-AL-5

1996-AL-5

1997-AL-6

1999-AL-2

2000-AL-6

2001-AL-5

 

Given that I said "Mussina's upside is scary high...Cy Young-contending high," not "Cy Young-winning high," I'm only suggesting that Mussina might be as good at age 39 as he's already been eight times in his MLB career...not better than he was at age 28.

 

But, since you mention it, at age 28 he went 15-8. At age 37 he went 15-7. Are you suggesting that a pitcher can never do better at age 39 than he did at age 37?

 

 

 

I've always suspected that Spud Chandler was juicing. And Jamie Moyer. And Jim Perry. And Warren Spahn (especially Warren Spahn). And Bert Blyleven. And Preacher Roe. And Lefty Grove. And Steve Carlton. And maybe Roger Clemens, Kevin Brown, Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, David Cone and Nolan Ryan. And certainly Gaylord Perry--heck, you could see the tobacco juice stains he left on the ball!

 

Those are all pitchers who had very good seasons at age 38. There are more: I think that I've made my point.

 

But Mike Mussina is going to be 39--let's look at age 39, and let's be a little more critical--let's look for comeback seasons from an ERA+ around or under 100.

 

Early Wynn went from 14-16 at age 38 to 22-10 at age 39, dropping his ERA by almost a run...Rick Reuschel's bad year was at age 37, not age 38, but he came back from a 9-16 record to a 19-11 record at age 39...David Wells went from 5-7 at age 38 to 19-7 at age 39...Kenny Rogers went from 13-8 to 18-9 at age 39...Sal Maglie went from 9-7 to 13-5, with an ERA+ of 140 and 191 IP at age 39...Fergie Jenkins went from 5-8 to 14-15, with an ERA+ of 118 and 217 IP, for the hapless 1982 Cubs, at age 39...Don Sutton went from 8-13 to 14-12 at age 39...and let's not forget that Connie Marrero improved in ERA+ at ages 39, 40 and 41, probably hitting his peak at age 40.

 

Gaylord Perry, of course, won a Cy Young at age 39, but he pitched well at age 38, too, and we all now know that he juiced.

 

 

 

Curt Schilling went from 8-8 to 15-7 at age 39.

 

 

Bill, you know as well as I do that todays games is far different then even the late 80's early 90's. So even tho I applaud your effort for finding all those players, they are irrelevant to me, because the game is alot different these day.

 

So after you thin your list down to players of this error what do you have? Randy Johnson, NL pitcher, faired decently not great in AL East, KB NL pitcher, not so well in ALE. Curt Schilling, He was injured all year when he was 38, so obviously if healthy his stats would look better. Also don't bring up record, W-L is a horrible stat to judge a pitcher by and you know this.

 

 

Ok so we got who left? Clemens( do I need to go into this?), Smoltz, Career NL pitcher, Cone I'll give you, even tho his yrs where unspectacular but passable. Moyer and Ryan are abnormalities. Ryan was a physical freak , he still could throw mid 90's at that age. And Moyer, well theres no explaining it, hes just got it done for a long time.

 

Also, you think Mussina could be a top 6 pitcher in the AL according to your argument at the top of your post? This is just madness and I don't even know where to begin, maybe its me, but does anyone else see this as insanity? Mussina might have a bounce back yr, but he will never be a top 6 pitcher, at this point his own club could start 3 to 4 pitchers in front of him.

[jacksonianmarch]

He is showing you some recent examples, you just dont seem to like the point he's making so you are ignoring it.

 

Listen, I am not in the Mussina is going to be a CY contender camp. Far from it. But he is the type of pitcher who ages well. Location, good off speed stuff, changes speeds effectively and he makes adjustments. Those who just get by on stuff do not typically age well (like Colon). That being said, in order for the Moose to get back to respectability, he needs to make even further adjustments. When he was younger, he had that running 94mph fastball and that dynamite curve. Once the heat slipped to low 90s, he added a sick changeup and became the pitcher he was at the beginning of his yankee tenure. 06 was a rennaissance yr again when Moose's heat was fading and he slowed down his off speed stuff. Last yr, the heat faded further and his approach was the problem. He'd easily get ahead 0-2 on hitters, but a 87mph FB on the outside corner isnt as effective as a 90mph FB on the corner. And his utter reluctance to use the inner half made him extremely vulnerable. Thus far, I have seen 2 of his starts. In one he was creamed, but you could tell he was working on pitches regardless of counts. In the last one I saw, he was obviously working on location and he was solid. Most of his pitches were on the inner half. If he continues that and utilizes the inner half consistently this yr, he will be much better than he was last yr. If he reverts to Pussina of last yr and strays from the inside corner, he'll be toast.

[BSN07]

I'm not ignoring his point. I'm saying Mussina is not a top 6 pitcher. His ceiling at this point is maybe #3 in his teams rotation. And for the most part, Pitchers don't get better with age. But like everything else there is the exception. I don't believe Moose to be that exception. Maybe if he was pitching in the NL. His loss in velocity is key for him. Like Jacko said, him not being able to go inside or paint the corner with a little bit of hard stuff will make it very difficult for him.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Bill' date=' you know as well as I do that todays games is far different then even the late 80's early 90's. So even tho I applaud your effort for finding all those players, they are irrelevant to me, because the game is alot different these day.[/quote']

 

I respectfully disagree. I feel that you're saying, "Only opinion matters. Actual history is irrelevant." Furthermore, you're discounting the steroid era, but you're limiting discussion to that very same era. That's, for want of a better word, unfair.

 

My position is that post-World War Two baseball carries valuable lessons regarding career paths. I could get into research regarding why I cut it off at that point in history, but I'd rather ask that you trust me on the choice of endpoint for relevant comparables with the knowledge that BP has chosen a similar endpoint for contemporary relevance.

 

Also don't bring up record, W-L is a horrible stat to judge a pitcher by and you know this.

 

W-L record is the most important stat for determining who actually wins the Cy Young Award. Ask Bartolo Colon.

 

Also, you think Mussina could be a top 6 pitcher in the AL according to your argument at the top of your post?

 

What argument? My listing of Mussina's place rankings in eight Cy Young votes?

 

This is just madness and I don't even know where to begin, maybe its me, but does anyone else see this as insanity?

 

I regard your position as, albeit not insane, unresearched.

 

How many wins does it take to lead a league? In 2006, it took 16 wins to lead the NL...from 1996 to 2008, it's taken between 16 and 24 wins, with a mode of 21 wins.

 

How many games does Mussina start in a year? His median for the last three years is 30, with a high of 32. For an upside, 33 starts hardly seems a stretch.

 

In what percentage of games do Cy Young contenders get decisions? The pitchers lucky enough to contend get decisions in, remarkably, 85-90% of their starts. For an upside year, let's award Mussina 29 decisions.

 

How good can Mussina be? Certainly a run average (not an ERA--an RA) of 4.00 is WELL within reach.

 

How good can the Yankees be? Chien-Ming Wang got 6.47 runs of support per game last year...that's certainly not a stretch.

 

How well would Mussina be expected to do with those stats? He'd win roughly 72% of his games.

 

What are the chances of a pitcher getting a certain number of wins if he got 29 decisions and he had a 72% chance of winning each one?

 

16 2%

17 5%

18 8%

19 12%

20 15%

21 16%

22 15%

23 12%

24 8%

25 4%

26 2%

 

I think that Mike Mussina might possibly contend for one of the top six W-L Records in the AL.

 

Mussina might have a bounce back yr, but he will never be a top 6 pitcher, at this point his own club could start 3 to 4 pitchers in front of him.

 

Probably true!

 

But not certainly true...both history and analysis suggest a frightening possible upside for Mussina. Rather than being needlessly surprised should the Yankees' version of Glenn Close emerge from the bathtub killing mad, I'd rather be aware of the outside chance as a worst-case scenario while taking pleasure in Bartolo Colon's reasonably good spring through his first four batters today and Mussina's adequate but uninspiring spring.

[BSN07]

I respectfully disagree. I feel that you're saying, "Only opinion matters. Actual history is irrelevant." Furthermore, you're discounting the steroid era, but you're limiting discussion to that very same era. That's, for want of a better word, unfair.

 

My position is that post-World War Two baseball carries valuable lessons regarding career paths. I could get into research regarding why I cut it off at that point in history, but I'd rather ask that you trust me on the choice of endpoint for relevant comparables with the knowledge that BP has chosen a similar endpoint for contemporary relevance.

 

 

 

W-L record is the most important stat for determining who actually wins the Cy Young Award. Ask Bartolo Colon.

 

 

 

What argument? My listing of Mussina's place rankings in eight Cy Young votes?

 

 

 

I regard your position as, albeit not insane, unresearched.

 

How many wins does it take to lead a league? In 2006, it took 16 wins to lead the NL...from 1996 to 2008, it's taken between 16 and 24 wins, with a mode of 21 wins.

 

How many games does Mussina start in a year? His median for the last three years is 30, with a high of 32. For an upside, 33 starts hardly seems a stretch.

 

In what percentage of games do Cy Young contenders get decisions? The pitchers lucky enough to contend get decisions in, remarkably, 85-90% of their starts. For an upside year, let's award Mussina 29 decisions.

 

How good can Mussina be? Certainly a run average (not an ERA--an RA) of 4.00 is WELL within reach.

 

How good can the Yankees be? Chien-Ming Wang got 6.47 runs of support per game last year...that's certainly not a stretch.

 

How well would Mussina be expected to do with those stats? He'd win roughly 72% of his games.

 

What are the chances of a pitcher getting a certain number of wins if he got 29 decisions and he had a 72% chance of winning each one?

 

16 2%

17 5%

18 8%

19 12%

20 15%

21 16%

22 15%

23 12%

24 8%

25 4%

26 2%

 

I think that Mike Mussina might possibly contend for one of the top six W-L Records in the AL.

 

 

 

Probably true!

 

But not certainly true...both history and analysis suggest a frightening possible upside for Mussina. Rather than being needlessly surprised should the Yankees' version of Glenn Close emerge from the bathtub killing mad, I'd rather be aware of the outside chance as a worst-case scenario while taking pleasure in Bartolo Colon's reasonably good spring through his first four batters today and Mussina's adequate but uninspiring spring.

 

I concede, I see your point and you make a valiant argument. I guess I just couldn't get past my intial stuberness at the thought of Mike Mussina being more them a flimsy 5th SP. You've backed your argument well, and I in all honesty am really going of my opinion of Mussina.

 

 

Well done sir:thumbsup: