Lugo's back a real concern?

[BSN07]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080310&content_id=2416649&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

Maybe we will see Lowrie on the Big League club sooner rather then later.

[jacksonianmarch]

I hope so. Past a diving Lowrie...

[TheKilo]

I hope so. Past a diving Lowrie...

 

I thought Lugo was mediocre defensively...?

[BSN07]

I hope so. Past a diving Lowrie...

 

Ya a Yanks fan raggin on a someone for having AVG range @ SS:lol:

 

" Pot, this is Kettle, Kettle this is my friend Pot, you two have lots in common."

[soxfan17881]

If Lugo is back is going to keep him out of the line up, I don't foresee a lot of difference.

 

http://img368.imageshack.us/img368/971/jljlaclj2.jpg

[TheKilo]

Fielding percentage is a pretty bad stat to use, though.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lowrie does not have the range to be a starting shortstop. And before you say it, neither does Jeter, its just that jeter hits the piss out of the ball and makes the routine plays. If Lowrie comes up and doesnt hit the cover off the ball from the getgo, he'll be a detriment.

[soxfan17881]

Fielding percentage is a pretty bad stat to use' date=' though.[/quote']

 

Lowrie does not have the range to be a starting shortstop. And before you say it' date=' neither does Jeter, its just that jeter hits the piss out of the ball and makes the routine plays. If Lowrie comes up and doesnt hit the cover off the ball from the getgo, he'll be a detriment.[/quote']

 

Here's a little more:

 

Games Errors

Lugo 145 19

Lowrie 116 17

Cora 33 3

 

Just throwing it out there. And as far a knocking the cover off the ball, Lugo has almost as little chance of doing that as Lowrie, or am I mistaken in thinking that?

[Beckett95]

i think royce clayton should be in fort meyers, just in case.

[schillingouttheks]

Here's a little more:

 

Games Errors

Lugo 145 19

Lowrie 116 17

Cora 33 3

 

Just throwing it out there. And as far a knocking the cover off the ball, Lugo has almost as little chance of doing that as Lowrie, or am I mistaken in thinking that?

 

That's still not the best way to measure someone's fielding capability. I don't have them on hand or know where to look, but ZR and other sabermetrics are much better. ORS, where do you get your stats?

[BSN07]

Lugo's range over Lowrie is negated by Lowries bat. Lowrie could easily match Lugo's numbers from last season and then some. Although I believe Lugo is due for a bounce back season.

[ORS]

That's still not the best way to measure someone's fielding capability. I don't have them on hand or know where to look' date=' but ZR and other sabermetrics are much better. ORS, where do you get your stats?[/quote']

RZR can be found at TheHardballTimes.com.

 

FRAA is on the player DT Cards at BaseballProspectus.com (these are free to all).

 

Don't know of any good sites for minor league fielding stats.

[SCM33]

i think royce clayton should be in fort meyers' date=' just in case.[/quote']

 

I was actually wondering what happened to him. I thought he would be a good bench option (I know I know, we already have Cora), but at the very least.....in AAA for security reasons.

 

He can hit a little, actually a little better than Cora and versatile on the left side....I guess the fact that Cora plays BOTH middle inf. positions hurt him since Clayton only plays the left side.

[RobZombie]

I think I read in a Gammons column last year that Alicea worked with Lugo last year at SS and he went from mediocre to fantastic defensively. There's no way to verify this with statistics as stats like UZR, and ZR are only available in one season increments.

[SCM33]

No.

 

I think the real concern is his glove, bat, arm.....the hell with it. The real concern with Lugo, is Lugo suiting up and running out to play SS.

[TheKilo]

Insightful.

[SCM33]

Insightful.

 

I apologize for the rant.

[Jayhawk Bill]

RZR can be found at TheHardballTimes.com.

 

FRAA is on the player DT Cards at BaseballProspectus.com (these are free to all).

 

Don't know of any good sites for minor league fielding stats.

 

BP PECOTA has minor league FRAA for the player's primary position at each minor league stop.

 

***

 

Regarding RZR, an excellent stat, THT also lists OOZ plays. While I like RZR by itself, for some players taking the quotient (Plays In Zone + Plays Out of Zone)/Balls In Zone gives a better picture of the player's skill. RZR rewards sure-handedness within the assigned zone; including OOZ rewards better positioning as well as greater range.

 

Using a very small 2008 sample to demonstrate this:

 

RZR

Manny Ramirez 1.000

Joey Gathright 1.000

 

(Plays In Zone + Plays Out of Zone)/Balls In Zone

Manny Ramirez 1.111

Joey Gathright 5.000

 

Manny's off to a great start, but Joey Gathright has the speed to do much better once range is considered.

 

***

 

I'm a fan of Dan Fox's new SFR system, and I've gotten some stats for players through the 2000's, but it's not yet widely available.

[ORS]

JHB, what is the primary weakness of FRAA? I've seen it ridiculed by some. Anecdotally, I've seen it agree with UZR more often than not, but I have seen some big contradictions too. Is it because it is based on counting data and not based on observational interpretation (game film)?

[Jayhawk Bill]

JHB' date=' what is the primary weakness of FRAA? I've seen it ridiculed by some. Anecdotally, I've seen it agree with UZR more often than not, but I have seen some big contradictions too. Is it because it is based on counting data and not based on observational interpretation (game film)?[/quote']

 

ORS, FRAA is based upon actual player contributions from box scores, adjusted for such things as the number of games started by right-handed and left-handed pitchers and the number of balls not in play due to strikeouts, as well as very good park factors. It's criticized for two reasons that I see:

 

1) The chances for each player are estimated based upon innings played and the factors I mentioned. While such things average out over roughly three years in most cases, there are some spikes and dips year-by-year, with bigger potential swings for part-time players.

 

2) Clay Davenport never made his methods completely public. I don't blame him--he and Baseball Prospectus have made good money by having the best system that was ever created that uses nothing but basic box score data. Still, SABR seems to have criticized FRAA more than might've been expected, and a number of writers explicitly criticized FRAA because it wasn't "transparent."

 

Dan Fox's SFR uses recent Retrosheet box scores with play-by-play data that indicate by whom hits were fielded, and that allows better apportionment of hits to various fielders. SFR's results are usually between those of FRAA and ZR-based systems.

 

Incidentally, ZR has a huge whopping flaw that's rarely discussed: it evaluates talent, not contribution. We don't excuse hitters because they don't get good pitches--and trust me, if you check Pitch F/X charts, Manny (for one) has gotten wretched pitches for years--we expect hitters to get hits and RBIs. ZR-based stats excuse players for not helping their teams because they didn't get a "fair chance" to do so, because the balls in play were a little outside their zones. Well, I see the logic--it's the same logic that drives assessing players by BA/OBP/SLG--but the integral of rate stats over a period of opportunities is more valuable, at least to me, than a rate stat by itself. FRAA is such an integral. Furthermore, actual runs scored and allowed are what win games. Actual hits and actual outs drive actual runs--and FRAA is based upon a tally of actual outs, assists and errors per game, not some arbitrary metric of "balls in zone."