David Aardsma Traded To Red Sox

[BSN07]

David Aardsma Traded To Red Sox

According to the Boston Globe, the Red Sox acquired reliever David Aardsma today for minor league pitchers Willy Mota and Miguel Socolovich.

 

Aardsma, 26, was a first-round pick of the Giants in '03. He started a bit in the minors in '03 but has mostly pitched as a reliever.

[Jayhawk Bill]

the Red Sox acquired reliever David Aardsma today

 

This is, of course, an obvious attempt by Theo Epstein to have his name linked to the player alphabetically first among all MLB players in history.

 

OK, better reasons to acquire Aardsma, who has a lifetime 5.16 ERA:

 

1) Mid-90's heat. He's just a little bit wild at times, but this guy can throw hard. As an aside, I suspect that he's a guy who'll benefit from the installation of Pitch f/x in MLB: young pitchers with reputations for wildness used to lose all the borderline calls, but that may be changing, and that'll help Aardsma.

 

2) Outstanding NCAA pitcher, very cool under pressure in the College World Series.

 

3) Once-upon-a-time first-round draft choice.

 

4) His minor-league record was quite good through 2006. His 2007 record should've been better: his K/9 went up to 11.46 and his WHIP went down to 1.05, but he yielded 7 HR in only 35.3 IP. That HR issue is out of line with his career rates, and it has to be an outlier--that happens with home runs sometimes.

 

5) Aardsma was actually a pretty good pitcher with the Cubs. He yielded eight of his 24 runs that season in two already-lost blowouts in Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out. Except for those two unimportant appearances, he had a 2.72 ERA. As an aside, Dusty Baker, his manager, used him frequently on successive days, a possible reason for his struggles.

 

6) Believe it or not, his 2007 season was ruined at Wrigley Field, too. He gave up five runs against the cross-town rivals in Interleague play with the wind blowing out (three of those runs coming because he left the bases loaded and the next pitcher immediately coughed up a home run). Guillen brought him in to pitch the very next day and left him out there to give up four more runs in 33 pitches in a blowout. Except for those two games, he posted a 4.18 ERA in MLB last season. His FIP was 4.15 and his xFIP was 4.22, right near that 4.18 figure--he was really an AL-average relief pitcher screwed by two bad days.

 

7) His nickname is "Crazy Eyes." How cool is that?

 

8) Aardsma was promoted from single-A ball to MLB by the Giants. He was clearly unready, and that may have set back his development. He's ready now.

 

9) I don't see any record of injury for Aardsma in the past three season.

 

10) Here's Aardsma's 2007 PECOTA "Stars and Scrubs" chart:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/images/aardsda01_004.gif

 

See that narrow dark-green band at the bottom where he's obviously similar to one superstar? That similar player is Curt Schilling. Aardsma gets to learn from the one guy with talent like his who made it big in MLB.

 

Overall, I think that Aardsma has a good chance of helping the 2008 Red Sox. I'd be cautious about using him in situations where the wind is blowing out and where a single home run might make a difference, but he's got 97 mph heat and he's better than his MLB stat line looks. Let's see if he's another guy helped by John Farrell--I'm hoping that he makes the 25-man roster.*

 

 

* If he doesn't, with three years of MLB experience he's probably out of options.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Low risk, decent reward.

[BoSox21]

* If he doesn't' date=' with three years of MLB experience he's probably out of options. [/quote']

 

he is out of options. I guess they'll see what happens in ST

[jacksonianmarch]

I have always liked Aardsma's ability. He sounds like the Mantei signing. High upside, low risk and cut him if he cant locate.

[rician blast]

Hard thrower who may have a tendency to give up the long-ball? lack of movement or wild within the zone?

[das11209]

So who cares we don't have Santana - we have Aardsma now.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Hard thrower who may have a tendency to give up the long-ball? lack of movement or wild within the zone?

 

Actually, Aardsma's tendency to allow home runs, on a career basis, looks normal. His MLB HR/FB rate is 11.8%, right in the expected 11-12% range.

 

The kicker is Aardsma in Wrigley. He's allowed 7 of his 14 MLB home runs in Wrigley Field, where he's thrown to only 134 of his 437 career total batters faced. I don't know exactly what the issue is, but the spike in Wrigley--coupled with the spike in AAA in 2007--makes me slightly concerned. Charlotte, where he played AAA this year, has a whopping 154% Park Factor for home runs allowed, and he gave up only one AAA home run on the road...it looks as if Aardsma struggles more than average in more challenging home run environments, but not that he usually yields too many home runs.

 

But regarding his pitches, here's a chart of his fastballs:

 

Edit: I can't maintain the image link: go check it out at the link below.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/web-based-pitchf-x-tool/

 

Not-so-great control, IMO. YMMV. :dunno:

[riverside sluggers]

Not bad of a move and it only cost 2 single A relief pitchers that arent really talked about. Pending a good ST, Aardsma will probably knock off Snyder or Lopez and be in the opening day bullpen

 

So far he could be the only new face on opening day

[ksushi]

In all likelihood he won't be with the sox by may. There is a good chance he doesn't even break camp with us.

[Thumper]

lack of movement or wild within the zone?

 

Nothin' pitching coach Farrell can't fix. :thumbsup:

[jacksonianmarch]

In all likelihood he won't be with the sox by may. There is a good chance he doesn't even break camp with us.

 

Tis true. Farrell isnt a miracle worker. And considering that the Cubs and White Sox passed on him (two teams desperately in need of bullpen) there is likely something seriously wrong (attitude, athleticism, ability) that will need a major overhaul to work. The best thing for him would be to be DFA'd, accept a MiLB deal and rebuild from the bottom.

[jacksonianmarch]

In all likelihood he won't be with the sox by may. There is a good chance he doesn't even break camp with us.

 

Tis true. Farrell isnt a miracle worker. And considering that the Cubs and White Sox passed on him (two teams desperately in need of bullpen) there is likely something seriously wrong (attitude, athleticism, ability) that will need a major overhaul to work. The best thing for him would be to be DFA'd, accept a MiLB deal and rebuild from the bottom.

[jacksonianmarch]

In all likelihood he won't be with the sox by may. There is a good chance he doesn't even break camp with us.

 

Tis true. Farrell isnt a miracle worker. And considering that the Cubs and White Sox passed on him (two teams desperately in need of bullpen) there is likely something seriously wrong (attitude, athleticism, ability) that will need a major overhaul to work. The best thing for him would be to be DFA'd, accept a MiLB deal and rebuild from the bottom.

[Jayhawk Bill]

In all likelihood he won't be with the sox by may. There is a good chance he doesn't even break camp with us.

 

A good chance? Absolutely.

 

A likelihood? I'll respectfully differ.

 

 

Farrell isnt a miracle worker. And considering that the Cubs and White Sox passed on him (two teams desperately in need of bullpen) there is likely something seriously wrong (attitude, athleticism, ability) that will need a major overhaul to work.

 

Passed on him?

 

The White Sox gave up Neal Cotts to the Cubs in the Aardsma trade. Boston gave up Mota, a guy who posted a 2.60 ERA at age 20 with Lowell, as well as Socolovich, also just 20, who was a victim of bad defense at Greenville but whose K/BB ratio improved to 2.10 with his promotion. We're not talking top prospects in any case, but the point is that Aardsma isn't necessarily a throwaway.

 

I'd suggest that Aardsma is an MLB-average relief pitcher who may not ever reach the potential that his velocity might suggest. If Farrell makes him into a better relief pitcher, I won't be surprised.

 

But if Aardsma does improve, feel free to call Farrell "Miracle Worker" in your future posts, given your current perspective.

[Ray10]

Decent pickup for the Sox will be interesting to watch.

[TheKilo]

Dude's got crazy eyes.

[TheKilo]

http://ia.imdb.com/media/imdb/01/I/65/04/63/10p.jpg

 

Did his sister come in the deal?

[schillingouttheks]

Butterface. Verrrrrrrr nice body.

 

Actually, I take that back. In that one picture, she looks like a toothpick.

 

EDIT: Eh, upon further review, she looks fine I guess. I've seen skinnier girls.

[Soxfan1]

Really thought about that one eh?

[TheKilo]

http://ia.imdb.com/media/imdb/01/I/44/91/41/10p.jpg

 

I've seen much worse.

[schillingouttheks]

That picture makes her look MUCH prettier, so maybe she has a better face than I thought.

 

And yes, Soxfan, I really thought about it lol.

[YAZMAN]

Butterface. Verrrrrrrr nice body.

 

Actually, I take that back. In that one picture, she looks like a toothpick.

 

EDIT: Eh, upon further review, she looks fine I guess. I've seen skinnier girls.

 

Link?

[RobZombie]

Getting back to Aardsma, one thing to keep in mind is that since the Sox start in Japan and sure as heck won't need five starters until they get back to the States, they can option out John Lester to start the season.

 

That means the Sox can keep 8 relievers on the roster, and you know that someone ALWAYS gets hurt....(Timlin cough), so there will probably be another spot open on top of that.

 

That would make a bullpen to start with four locks (Timlin, Okajima, Delcarman, Paps)

 

And a scrum for the four remaining spots (Lopez, Breslow, Corey, Aardsma, Tavarez, Snyder)

[a700hitter]

... and you know that someone ALWAYS gets hurt....(Timlin cough)

A guy with more than 1,000 career appearances with only 13 guys ahead of him on the all time list is hard to criticize for lack of durability.

[TheKilo]

Gotta agree with 700 on this one.

[RobZombie]

Though Mike Timlin has in the past been among the most durable Red Sox his appearances and innings pitched have fallen the past two years as he has spent time on the disabled list with shoulder problems. Last season Timlin pitched fewer innings than he had in any non-strike year since 1992. Given that he is now 42 years old its likely Timlin will likely once again have shoulder problems and have to spend time on the disabled list. It is also likely that his appearances and innings pitched will fall for a third year in a row.

 

Pitchers who are 42 tend to get hurt more than pitchers who are 29, its not a criticism its just a fact of life. The Red Sox will likely need a reliever to replace Timlin for a spell at some point during the season quite possibly at the beginning.

 

This does not mean that Timlin will be unable to help the Red Sox in 2008, or that he was a poor signing. It just means he is what he is. A declining but still effective 42 year old middle reliever who will likely be injured for part of the season.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Pitchers who are 42 tend to get hurt more than pitchers who are 29' date=' its not a criticism its just a fact of life. [/quote']

 

Are you sure of that?

 

Pitchers who are 30 tend to get hurt more than pitchers who are 29, its not a criticism its just a fact of life. Pitchers who are 31 tend to get hurt more than pitchers who are 29, its not a criticism its just a fact of life. Pitching is an unnatural motion, and it destroys most pitchers' arms.

 

At some point, though, there's a "survivor effect." Mike Timlin has a pitching motion that has endured for two-plus decades (three-plus counting Little League and similar stuff). I know that around age 40 aging curves shift for pitchers, and you get into the range of the Warren Spahns, Nolan Ryans and Jamie Moyers. Injuries actually diminish--the problem becomes the ability of a human body to endure as it progresses deeper into middle age. Such pitchers lose velocity and can't compete--they don't suffer, as a rule, career-ending injury.

 

Mike Timlin is nearing the point where his fastball isn't good enough to set up his other pitches. That's where I see a weakness, not in injury potential.

[a700hitter]

I agree, but each year I am surprised that he is still able to stay in the 90-92 range, and with his experience and his control, he can remain very effective. We'll have to see what he hits on the gun this year. He's got that tall lanky pitcher's build that allows him to produce a lot of leverage without putting too much stress on his arm.

[riverside sluggers]

Getting back to Aardsma, one thing to keep in mind is that since the Sox start in Japan and sure as heck won't need five starters until they get back to the States, they can option out John Lester to start the season.

 

That means the Sox can keep 8 relievers on the roster, and you know that someone ALWAYS gets hurt....(Timlin cough), so there will probably be another spot open on top of that.

 

That would make a bullpen to start with four locks (Timlin, Okajima, Delcarman, Paps)

 

And a scrum for the four remaining spots (Lopez, Breslow, Corey, Aardsma, Tavarez, Snyder)

 

Tavarez is a lock to be in the bullpen as the long man. His 2008 option was picked up for $4 million, hardly think theyll do a buyout