Rocco Baldelli

[Jayhawk Bill]

The Tampa Bay Rays had an Opening Day payroll of $24,123,500 last season. This season, they’re on track to pay $6 million--a huge chunk of their total payroll--to an outfielder who hit .204 with five home runs last year.

 

Rocco Baldelli, Woonsocket’s favorite son, looked to be a future superstar well into his early 20’s. Drafted sixth in the 2000 MLB Draft at age 18, Baldelli seemed to have a promising career ahead of him. His first two years in MLB confirmed that: after his rookie year, his top comparable was Tris Speaker; after his sophomore year, his top comparable was Carl Yastrzemski.

 

In the winter after his sophomore year, Rocco Baldelli tore his ACL to avoid injuring his seven-year-old brother while they played together in their backyard. Just before he should’ve been ready to return, he blew out his throwing arm and he needed Tommy John surgery. Baldelli missed 2005 entirely with those injuries. He returned in 2006, looking better than he had in his first two years, but he lost months of playing time due to elbow and hamstring troubles. Last year his troubles were limited to his hamstring, but he managed only 150 PA in 35 games, and for the first time his batting average didn’t approach .300—in fact, it barely exceeded the Mendoza line.

 

If this story of injury-shattered expectations were not enough, the contract to which it led is bizarre. Near the end of his prolonged ACL/Tommy John surgery injury absence, Baldelli canned his agent, Scott Boras, and got the contract he negotiated for himself:

 

06:$2M, 07:$0.75M, 08:$2.25M, 09:$6M club option ($4M buyout), 10:$8M club option, 11:$9M club option ($2M buyout - 2010 & 2011 options must be exercised together)

$4M escalator if Baldelli has 600 Plate Appearances in 2006

$1.75M in 2007, increasing 07 salary to $2.5M

$2.25M in 2008, increasing 08 salary to $4M

performance bonuses for 2007 & 2008 if Baldelli fails to reach 600 PAs in 2006

 

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/tampa-bay-devil-rays_112131227267025321.html

 

Obviously, Baldelli missed his 600 PA in 2006 and he played for $750,000 in 2007. What he’s still got coming are the salaries or buyouts of his last four contract seasons. The really weird part is that the buyout decisions come due in April of the preceding year, so Tampa Bay must either commit to the $6 million 2009 option or buy it out this April.

 

And the thing is, Tampa Bay doesn’t have a role for Rocco Baldelli.

 

Per the official Rays’ web site, Baldelli is currently slated to play right field. He’s never played RF at the MLB level, and using him blocks Jonny Gomes, but that’s the “official” plan. What’s missing is that Justin Ruggiano looks to be ready to play at the MLB level, and that he’s probably a .280/.350/.450 hitter in MLB, and that he’ll play at MLB minimum for three years. That leaves this lineup:

 

LF Crawford

CF Upton

RF Ruggiano

DH Gomes/Floyd

1B Pena

 

That’s six names for five positions, with Gomes and Floyd the natural platoon combo to make it all work if everybody is healthy. Gomes can play all three outfield positions as a backup.

 

I’d suggest that Rocco Baldelli is probably available in trade, and that, given his injury history and his moderately large contract, he’s got practically zero trade value. Were I the Red Sox FO, I’d investigate the chance of bringing him back to New England for a not-so-great prospect, exercising the 2008 option (making the total contract worth over $10 million), and sending him down to Pawtucket. He’s out of option years, so he’d have to pass waivers, but I don’t think that there’d be too much interest in a .204-hitting outfielder with a $10 million contract obligation. For Boston, he’d offset some of the dollars by being a huge draw in Pawtucket, and there’s a chance that he could regain his talent with regular, low-pressure playing time. The gamble probably isn’t worth the money for any other MLB team, but for Boston, given Baldelli’s hometown and Boston’s solid cash flow, it might be a chance worth taking if the Rays were willing to part with Baldelli for little in return.

[Mr Crunchy]

i know his dad very very well,a real tuff guy

its too bad because when he broke out all the old paisans were comparing him to dimaggio and if you watch him run its eery

he fell off everyones radar over the last couple years.

the redeeming quality i saw in him was his speed,,burgeoning power and great sense on tracking down flies....he will become a better hitter and god knows what hed do in a legitimate lineup where he wont be the only dangerous bat..

tampa has improved offensively,as jayhawk said,they aint paying young rocky 6M to sit behind someone else.

its a win win move if the price is right and the man can still play.

[Jayhawk Bill]

i know his dad very very well,a real tuff guy

its too bad because when he broke out all the old paisans were comparing him to dimaggio and if you watch him run its eery

he fell off everyones radar over the last couple years.

the redeeming quality i saw in him was his speed,,burgeoning power and great sense on tracking down flies....he will become a better hitter and god knows what hed do in a legitimate lineup where he wont be the only dangerous bat..

tampa has improved offensively,as jayhawk said,they aint paying young rocky 6M to sit behind someone else.

its a win win move if the price is right and the man can still play.

 

Thanks for the good words.

 

Regarding his great sense on tracking down flies, despite horrible hamstring troubles in 2007 he was still a good CF defensively. Looking at his combined rate for in-zone and out-of-zone catches, his small sample of 162 innings would have ranked between Torii Hunter and Melky Cabrera (both a little better) and Grady Sizemore and Vernon Wells (both a little worse) among qualifying AL center fielders. That's pretty good company for a guy playing lame.

[Mr Crunchy]

it really is jb

as a teenager you could see he had all the skills but he had a speech problem and a skin issue that made him rather shy...by the time he was 17 he was getting more ass than a toilet seat and was brimming with confidence,not so today...

his dad and i arent close as we once where but im told by mutuals the kid has some psych issues that he hasnt yet resolved since he got hurt and hes indeed struggling with his confidence at the plate.

as you pointed out

a 2 month gig in pawtucket would be great for him,great for the pawsox and potentially a great fill for the big club

hes got so much upside it would be nothing short of a tragedy if he couldnt make it back

[a700hitter]

Isn't $10 million a little pricey for a physical and mental reclamation case?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Isn't $10 million a little pricey for a physical and mental reclamation case?

 

First, if you've got information that I'm unable to find regarding Rocco Baldelli being a mental reclamation case, I'm eager to read it. A quick Google search revealed nothing of the sort, but I'm open to anything published in a reliable source.

 

I did, however, find this article from last year where manager Joe Maddon praised Baldelli's leadership:

 

http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070415&content_id=1900210&vkey=news_tb&fext=.jsp&c_id=tb

 

and other stuff praising his money management as a young player and some of his charitable donations.

 

I know that he came from a lower-middle class family and neighborhood. I don't know of any mental problems.

 

***

 

OK, now, that $10 million for a physical reclamation case bit? Absolutely. If I thought otherwise I'd never suggest that he could pass waivers to get to AAA again--accepting the 2009 option and the 2010/11 buyout is the "poison pill" that precludes other teams' chasing him.

 

What I'm suggesting about Baldelli is that his particular upside, including the fielding range and throwing arm to play an excellent right field in Fenway, as well as his New England heritage, make him uniquely valuable to the Red Sox. Furthermore, most teams don't have $10 million to gamble, but over three years Boston does.

 

Teams gamble on free agents' health all the time. The difference is that it's usually gambling on the assumption that good health will continue to be good. In Baldelli's case, it's a probable losing bet, but the upside is an All Star caliber player, not a journeyman. If he turns things around--and some other players have managed to avoid hamstring trouble despite previous challenges--his $23 million price tag from 2009-2011 looks like a bargain.

 

I understand your concern with Baldelli's health. I suggest that, if he could be acquired for not too much from the Rays, that he'd be worth a gamble.

[Jayhawk Bill]

it really is jb

as a teenager you could see he had all the skills but he had a speech problem and a skin issue that made him rather shy...by the time he was 17 he was getting more ass than a toilet seat and was brimming with confidence,not so today...

his dad and i arent close as we once where but im told by mutuals the kid has some psych issues that he hasnt yet resolved since he got hurt and hes indeed struggling with his confidence at the plate.

as you pointed out

a 2 month gig in pawtucket would be great for him,great for the pawsox and potentially a great fill for the big club

hes got so much upside it would be nothing short of a tragedy if he couldnt make it back

 

I don't see a temporary lack of confidence as unusual for a guy who hit the Mendoza line thanks to a May slump last year. In April 2007 he was fine, and he was actually hitting better for power than he did in his early years--I think that he'll be back regardless, but I think that a long stint in AAA would be especially valuable for Baldelli.

[a700hitter]

First' date=' if you've got information that I'm unable to find regarding Rocco Baldelli being a mental reclamation case, I'm eager to read it. A quick Google search revealed nothing of the sort, but I'm open to anything published in a reliable source.[/quote']I wasn't referring to a mental illness. I was referring to a lack of confidence with the bat that was referenced by Crunchy. A confidence problem can be every bit as debilitating as a physical problem. If they can get him on the field and healthy, at the worst he'd be a nice trading chip. Also, he's a RH bat which the Sox could use. What exactly is wrong with him at this point?

[Jayhawk Bill]

I wasn't referring to a mental illness. I was referring to a lack of confidence with the bat that was referenced by Crunchy. A confidence problem can be every bit as debilitating as a physical problem.

 

OK...but lots of players have slumps, and lots recover. When you used the phrase "mental reclamation case" I thought that we were dealing with something in the Mark Fidrych/Jimmy Piersall/Jim Eisenreich/Ed Doheny spectrum, and I was surprised to find no mention of it on the web.

 

If they can get him on the field and healthy, at the worst he'd be a nice trading chip. Also, he's a RH bat which the Sox could use. What exactly is wrong with him at this point?

 

At this point? Inadequate playing time for three years coupled with recurring hamstring troubles.

 

He was rushed to MLB in 2003 because the Rays needed a CF and Baldelli was good enough to play at the MLB level. He kinda missed the stop at AA/AAA in his development (he had 166 AB at both levels combined before becoming a starting MLB player), and he's struggled a bit with plate discipline ever since. Notably his 96 AB batting line in AAA from 2002 was .292/.292/.469: he didn't draw a single walk in AAA that year. He did well for two seasons, but since an offseason injury that forced him to miss 2005 entirely he's had just 537 PA in two seasons..

 

Here's an interesting table:

 

[table]Timeframe|BABIP

2003|.347

2004|.312

2006|.338

April 2007|.328

May 2007|.061[/table]

 

Given the breakdown of his balls in play, I'd've expected Baldelli to get maybe six more hits last season, which would've left him with a BA in the .260 range. A MLB BABIP of .061 is just plain weird, especially given that he could only have expected a couple more infield hits than he actually got.

 

If the hamstrings don't recover, he's a DH at best and a 60-day DL fixture (again) at worst. If the hamstrings do recover, .283/.329/.469 is Bill James's prediction for 2008.

[a700hitter]

Did he completely tear the hamstrings? I've heard that a torn hamstring is very difficult from which to recover. Joe Namath always says that his worst injury wasn't his knees problems, but rather a torn hamstring. If Rocco has just been pulling the muscle (as opposed to rupturing it) and he has no other structural issues, he probably would be worth the investment. He has a canon for an arm.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Did he completely tear the hamstrings? I've heard that a torn hamstring is very difficult from which to recover.

 

Allegedly he strains them.

 

"My hamstrings, I don't talk about them very often, but they're not 100 percent. They don't feel good every day when I wake up and stuff like that. Some days they feel good and some days not so good, but the turnaround from day games to night games and stuff like that, they don't really recover as well when I wake [up]."

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060629&content_id=1529632&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

St. Petersburg Times, Sept 5, 2007

 

Once more, a Devil Rays season is nearing its conclusion and Baldelli's future is a mystery. The Rays have been unusually quiet about his health, and they have asked him to keep his silence, too.

 

All we know for sure is Baldelli is a long way from having the presence we once imagined. He is sidelined with a hamstring injury. Again. He will miss the majority of a season. Again. His future is in doubt and his durability is in question.

 

It is frustrating, yes. It is costly, too. But, mostly, it is just sad. Baldelli is a terrific guy with abysmal luck. He has torn up a knee, blown out an elbow and been saddled with the most cranky 25-year-old hamstrings in creation.

 

Once, it was considered simple misfortune. A string of regrettable, yet unrelated, circumstances. Now, you have to wonder whether something is causing Baldelli to break down.

 

http://www.sptimes.com/2007/09/05/Rays/A_keeper_Rays_can_t_c.shtml