Class of 2009 Free Agents

[Soxfan1]

Catchers

Michael Barrett (32)

Johnny Estrada (33)

Kenji Johjima (33)

Jason Kendall (35) - club option for '09; vests with 110 games played in '08

Paul Lo Duca (37)

Ivan Rodriguez (37)

David Ross (32)

Jason Varitek (37)

Gregg Zaun (38) - $3.75MM vesting option for '09; vests with 160 games played in '08

 

First basemen

Ben Broussard (32)

Carlos Delgado (37) - $16MM mutual option for '09 with a $4MM buyout

Nomar Garciaparra (35)

Jason Giambi (38) - $22MM club option for '09 with a $5MM buyout

Scott Hatteberg (39)

Kevin Millar (37)

Richie Sexson (34)

Mark Teixeira (29)

 

Second basemen

Mark Ellis (32)

Mark Grudzielanek (39)

Orlando Hudson (31)

Tadahito Iguchi (34)

Jeff Kent (41)

Felipe Lopez (29)

Mark Loretta (37)

 

Shortstops

Orlando Cabrera (34)

David Eckstein (34)

Adam Everett (32)

Rafael Furcal (31)

Cristian Guzman (31)

Cesar Izturis (29)

Felipe Lopez (29)

Edgar Renteria (33) - $11MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout

Juan Uribe (30)

Omar Vizquel (42) - $5.2MM club option for '09 with a $0.3MM buyout

 

Third basemen

Casey Blake (35)

Hank Blalock (28) - $6.2MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout

Joe Crede (31)

Nomar Garciaparra (35)

Troy Glaus (32) - $11.25MM player option for '09

Wes Helms (33) - $3.75MM club option for '09

Chipper Jones (37) - $8-11MM vesting option for '09

 

Left fielders

Moises Alou (42)

Garret Anderson (37) - $14MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout

Milton Bradley (31)

Pat Burrell (32)

Carl Crawford (27) - $8.25MM club option for '09 with $2.5MM buyout

Adam Dunn (29)

Cliff Floyd (36) - $3MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout

Raul Ibanez (37)

Jacque Jones (34)

Jason Michaels (33) - $2.6MM club option for '09

Craig Monroe (32)

Jay Payton (36)

Wily Mo Pena (27) - $5MM club option or $2MM player option for '09

Manny Ramirez (37) - $20MM club option for '09

Juan Rivera (30)

 

Center fielders

Rocco Baldelli (27) - $6MM club option for '09 with a $4MM buyout

Jim Edmonds (39)

Jacque Jones (34)

Mark Kotsay (33)

 

Right fielders

Bobby Abreu (35)

Casey Blake (35)

Milton Bradley (31)

Brian Giles (38) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout

Ken Griffey Jr. (39) - $16.5MM club option for '09 with a $4MM buyout

Vladimir Guerrero (33) - $15MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout

Jacque Jones (34)

 

DHs

Milton Bradley (31)

Pat Burrell (32)

Adam Dunn (29)

Jason Giambi (38) - $22MM club option for '09 with $5MM buyout

Vladimir Guerrero (33) - $15MM club option for '09 with a $3MM buyout

Raul Ibanez (37)

Manny Ramirez (37) - $20MM club option for '09

Juan Rivera (30)

Frank Thomas (41) - $10MM option for '09; vests with 376 PAs in '08

Jim Thome (38) - $13MM club option for '09 with $3MM buyout

Jose Vidro (34) - vesting option for '09

 

Starting pitchers

A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after '08 season

Paul Byrd (38)

Ryan Dempster (32)

Jon Garland (29)

Tom Glavine (43)

Orlando Hernandez (43)

Randy Johnson (45)

John Lackey (30) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $0.5MM buyout

Esteban Loaiza (37) - $7.5MM club option for '09 with a $0.375MM buyout

Braden Looper (34)

Derek Lowe (36)

Greg Maddux (43)

Pedro Martinez (37)

Matt Morris (34) - $9MM club option for '09 with a $1MM buyout

Jamie Moyer (46)

Mark Mulder (31) - $11MM club option for '09 with a $1.5MM buyout

Mike Mussina (40)

Brad Penny (31) - $8.75MM club option for '09 with a $2MM buyout

Oliver Perez (27)

Andy Pettitte (37)

Kenny Rogers (44)

C.C. Sabathia (28)

Johan Santana (30)

Curt Schilling (42)

Ben Sheets (30)

John Smoltz (42) - $12MM club option for '09

Tim Wakefield (42) - perpetual $4MM club option

Woody Williams (42) - $6.75MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout

Randy Wolf (32)

 

Closers

Joe Borowski (38)

Ryan Dempster (32)

Brian Fuentes (33)

Eric Gagne (33)

Trevor Hoffman (41)

Jason Isringhausen (36)

Todd Jones (41)

Brad Lidge (32)

Joe Nathan (34)

Al Reyes (38)

Francisco Rodriguez (27)

Rafael Soriano (29)

 

Middle relievers

Doug Brocail (42) - club option for '09

Juan Cruz (28)

Alan Embree (39) - $3MM club option for '09

Scott Eyre (37)

Kyle Farnsworth (33)

Aaron Fultz (35)

Tom Gordon (41) - $4.5MM club option for '09 with a $1MM buyout

LaTroy Hawkins (36)

Matt Herges (39) - club option for '09

Bob Howry (35)

Steve Kline (36)

Brandon Lyon (29)

Damaso Marte (34) - $6MM club option for '09 with a $0.25MM buyout

Guillermo Mota (35)

Will Ohman (31)

Darren Oliver (38)

Juan Rincon (30)

Russ Springer (40)

Mike Stanton (42) - $2.5MM club option for '09 with a $0.5MM buyout

Mike Timlin (43)

Salomon Torres (37) - $3.75MM club option for '09 with a $0.3MM buyout

Oscar Villarreal (27)

David Weathers (39)

Dan Wheeler (31)

Kerry Wood (32)

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/2009-mlb-free-a.html

 

Could anyone see some of the former Sox stars (Pedro, Millar, Nomar) returning? I doubt seeing Millar or Nomar, but I would love to see Pedro back.

 

I think 2009 will bring the end of Timlin, Manny and maybe even Wake. No way the Sox exercise that Manny option and he'll take the first bus out of here. Maybe he will actually try this year to up his value though.

 

Hopefully Santana can overshadow guys like Sheets and Burnett while the Yanks give Santana 30/8.

[example1]

Could anyone see some of the former Sox stars (Pedro, Millar, Nomar) returning? I doubt seeing Millar or Nomar, but I would love to see Pedro back.

 

 

As a bullpen coach? Terry Francona's personal Don Zimmer barrier?

 

I think 2009 will bring the end of Timlin, Manny and maybe even Wake. No way the Sox exercise that Manny option and he'll take the first bus out of here. Maybe he will actually try this year to up his value though.

 

I'm not so sure about Manny, actually. First of all, if they aren't going to keep Manny then there will be the inevitable push to trade him and I can't see how someone like him wouldn't have value. So he should be traded. Otherwise, he'll still be a productive bat worth holding on to.

[Cocos Disciples]

Pedro will not come back.

[riverside sluggers]

Schilling and Timlin are close to 100% goners after the 2008 season. Wakefield possibly. The Sox could very well end up picking Manny's 2009 option. Id love to see them get Mark Teixeira, but Im banking on Yankees giving him a blank check if he hits free agency.

 

As far as starting pitchers go, Im sure the Sox will look into Burnett if he opts out of his contract

 

Potential 2009 rotation if Santana & AJ are acquired

Johan Santana

Josh Beckett

Daisuke Matsuzaka

AJ Burnett

Clay Buchholz

[BSN07]

Mannys contract isnt considered out rageous anymore. If he can play 130 games hit .290 25+hr and 90+ rbi I imagine they pick up his options, or just sign him to an extension.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Mannys contract isnt considered out rageous anymore. If he can play 130 games hit .290 25+hr and 90+ rbi I imagine they pick up his options' date=' or just sign him to an extension.[/quote']

 

I don't believe for a moment that they pick up Manny's $20 million option. He's a huge defensive liability, and Boston already has a DH.

[das11209]

I don't believe for a moment that they pick up Manny's $20 million option. He's a huge defensive liability' date=' and Boston already has a DH.[/quote']

 

How do you think they replace his bat?

[MANNYHOF24]

I don't believe for a moment that they pick up Manny's $20 million option. He's a huge defensive liability' date=' and Boston already has a DH.[/quote']

 

He isnt that big of a defensive liability, especially at Fenway Park. His bat makes up for his defense anyways. Unless we can get someone to replace that bat, I would say there is a very good chance Manny's option will be picked up after this season. 20 Million doesn't sound as bad as it used to.

[a700hitter]

How do you think they replace his bat?

If you could hit with a glove, Darren Lewis would have been a Hall of Famer.

[riverside sluggers]

Two left fielders who will be free agents after the 2009 season (pending no extensions are made)

 

Jason Bay and Matt Holliday

 

Note: Im mentioning this in the scenario of the Sox picking up Manny's 2009 $20 million option.

[ksushi]

Two left fielders who will be free agents after the 2009 season (pending no extensions are made)

 

Jason Bay and Matt Holliday

 

I think your forgetting a certain 28 year old OBP Machine with Mantle power... Adam Dunn? I like the idea of a Ortiz, Lowell, Dunn in the post-manny era. I don't really think we should spend the money and give the years to Bay, he has a lot of holes, and they were exposed this season. If he fills them, and hes young enough too, and has a monster bounce-back season, then it could look a little better come next offseason.

[Soxfan1]

I see Bay and Holliday bouncing up their value a lot in 2008 and they'll probably get traded at the deadline unless the Rockies stay consistent and have a great season. I would rather get a pitcher then overpay on Bay and Holliday so Dunn seems like a good option to me.

[riverside sluggers]

Wont Dunn be a trade candidate during the trading deadline? The Reds, even in the NL Central, dont stand a good chance of at least being competitive

[yeszir]

Please cite the source Soxfan. That definitely came from another forum.

[26 to 6]

I think your forgetting a certain 28 year old OBP Machine with Mantle power... Adam Dunn? I like the idea of a Ortiz' date=' Lowell, Dunn in the post-manny era. I don't really think we should spend the money and give the years to Bay, he has a lot of holes, and they were exposed this season. If he fills them, and hes young enough too, and has a monster bounce-back season, then it could look a little better come next offseason.[/quote']

Dunn compared to Mantle?

 

what?

[Cocos Disciples]

Please cite the source Soxfan. That definitely came from another forum.

 

I saw it on MLB Trade Rumors.

[Jayhawk Bill]

How do you think they replace his bat?

 

Through trade or free agency.

 

My turn:

 

How many runs per 150-game year do you think that Manny's glove costs the team?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Dunn compared to Mantle?

 

what?

 

I think that the source meant to say "Boog Powell."

[Soxfan1]

Please cite the source Soxfan. That definitely came from another forum.

 

The list? Sorry. I'll do it now.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

Dunn compared to Mantle?

 

what?

 

Mantle power. No one is comparing the rest of his skill set to the Mick. Dunn is one of the most powerful hitters ever. Not one of the BEST, but one of the most powerful.

 

You disagree?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Mantle had hit 42 more home runs than Dunn at Dunn's age; Dunn has a better home-field advantage than Mantle. Dunn has played in an era much better for hitting than Mantle did.

 

Their isolated power numbers aren't dissimilar, but given all these other factors I'd have to think that Mantle was a little bit better at power hitting than Dunn is.

[a700hitter]

Mantle had hit 42 more home runs than Dunn at Dunn's age; Dunn has a better home-field advantage than Mantle. Dunn has played in an era much better for hitting than Mantle did.

 

Their isolated power numbers aren't dissimilar, but given all these other factors I'd have to think that Mantle was a little bit better at power hitting than Dunn is.

Although I would never compare Mantle to Dunn, Dunn does hit the ball as hard as anyone that I have ever seen. Also, I am not sure about the park advantage. The right field porch in Yankee Stadium was ridiculously short.

[ORS]

I think the power comp is hittrackeronline.com kind of stuff. Of course Mantle has better numbers in the traditional power categories. He was a much better hitter who squared the ball up more often. He just didn't hit it to places Dunn couldn't.

[das11209]

Through trade or free agency.

 

My turn:

 

How many runs per 150-game year do you think that Manny's glove costs the team?

 

I don't know - you are the stat-boy.

 

From visual evidence - he is pretty good in Fenway - and is probably not the worst outside Fenway.

 

Unfortunately - Power is not very easy to find - hopefully Anderson and Lowrie can replace him. It will be quite hard and more expensive probably replacing Manny's bat through trade or free agency.

 

Thought this latino is a pure head case - he also happens to be one of the best right handed hitters of our time - and without him David Ortiz is not the same - again visual evidence from last year. That said - I have been concerned with his injuries - just don't see it how it is easy to replace him.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I don't know - you are the stat-boy.

 

That's an insult. I was a boy decades ago.

 

From visual evidence - he is pretty good in Fenway - and is probably not the worst outside Fenway.

 

Let's use Lichtman's UZR. UZR was unavailable for years, but Lichtman has published the 2003-2007 UZR now that his contract with the St Louis Cardinals is done. Here are the Boston left fielders, 2003-2007:

 

[table]Year | Name | runs per 150G

2006 | Mohr, Dustan | 76

2003 | Jackson, Damian | 37

2004 | Kapler, Gabe | 26

2005 | Payton, Jay | 9

2006 | Hinske, Eric | 1

2006 | Stern, Adam | 1

2004 | Hyzdu, Adam | 1

2004 | Crespo, Cesar | 1

2006 | Harris, Willie | 1

2007 | Hinske, Eric | 0

2005 | Kapler, Gabe | -2

2003 | Ramirez, Manny | -11

2006 | Kapler, Gabe | -13

2005 | Millar, Kevin | -14

2004 | Ramirez, Manny | -14

2006 | Pena, Wily Mo | -21

2003 | Millar, Kevin | -25

2006 | Youkilis, Kevin | -26

2004 | McCarty, David | -29

2006 | Ramirez, Manny | -37

2007 | Pena, Wily Mo | -38

2004 | Millar, Kevin | -39

2007 | Ramirez, Manny | -42

2005 | Ramirez, Manny | -42

2003 | Giambi, Jeremy | -68

2006 | Murphy, David | -74

2004 | Daubach, Brian | -130

2006 | Pena, Carlos | -149[/table]

 

Some of these are clearly small sample sizes, but a few things come out:

 

1) Manny costs Boston about 40 runs per year of full-time play per Lichtman's UZR. UZR was so good that the Cardinals bought it and pulled it off the market so that they'd be the only ones having it for player evaluation--it's a pretty sophisticated metric.

 

2) The only "left fielders" who approach that level are Kevin Millar 2004 (his bad season on defense, and he was really a first baseman), Wily Mo Pena 2007 (his bad season, and he's really a center fielder who struggles at either corner) and David Murphy 2006 (who made one catch in 20 innings).

 

3) Putting a guy who had no business being in left field out there had demonstrably worse results than putting Manny there: Jeremy Giambi, Brian Daubach and Carlos Pena were all worse than Manny in left field in their respective small samples of play.

 

4) All of these guys were average or better in left field for Boston at least one year:

 

Mohr, Dustan

Jackson, Damian

Kapler, Gabe

Payton, Jay

Hinske, Eric

Stern, Adam

Hyzdu, Adam

Crespo, Cesar

Harris, Willie

 

It's not impossible to play LF in Fenway--it's just that it takes skill as a defender, and a little speed never hurts when playing outfield.

 

Unfortunately - Power is not very easy to find - hopefully Anderson and Lowrie can replace him. It will be quite hard and more expensive probably replacing Manny's bat through trade or free agency.

 

Betcha that Jason Bay signs for less than $20 million a year.

 

Thought this latino is a pure head case - he also happens to be one of the best right handed hitters of our time - and without him David Ortiz is not the same - again visual evidence from last year.

 

David Ortiz seems to have greater OBP and lower BA without Manny batting behind him, but his value seems pretty much the same.

 

Frankly, it's reached the point where Manny isn't such a dominating presence as he used to be--they're intentionally walking Papi to face Manny. Manny had 10.3 runs created per game in 2006; he only had 6.6 RC/G in 2007, tied with his rookie season for his worst mark ever. FWIW, he also missed his career high in GIDP by just one, despite having dozens fewer opportunities than he had in 2003 when he had his career high.

 

That said - I have been concerned with his injuries - just don't see it how it is easy to replace him.

 

I think that it's roughly as easy as saying, "What's the best way to use $20 million in payroll to help this team?" and rationally analyzing what player gives the best return for that money. One superior option is probably Jason Bay; there are others.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Also, I am not sure about the park advantage. The right field porch in Yankee Stadium was ridiculously short.

 

Mantle's career split home-away in SLG is less than Dunn's--it is still a big edge for Mantle, too, as you suggest.

 

I think the power comp is hittrackeronline.com kind of stuff. Of course Mantle has better numbers in the traditional power categories. He was a much better hitter who squared the ball up more often. He just didn't hit it to places Dunn couldn't.

 

If one defines power by distance of the farthest shot, well, when I was a kid Mantle allegedly had the longest home run in history (565 feet). I don't think that Dunn has hit one that far.

 

Some statisticians and baseball experts believe that Mickey Mantle's 565-foot (approximately 172 meters) blast off Chuck Stobbs of the Senators in Washington in 1953 was the longest batted baseball ever. This measurement is listed in the Guinness Book of World Records as the longest home run ever measured. Guinness also clarifies that Mickey Mantle's home run measured at 643 feet (approximately 196 meters) is the longest home run measured "mathematically after the fact." This home run was hit at Tiger Stadium in Detroit on September 10, 1960.

 

http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2004/EricaRosenthal.shtml

[riverside sluggers]

4) All of these guys were average or better in left field for Boston at least one year:

 

Mohr, Dustan

Jackson, Damian

Kapler, Gabe

Payton, Jay

Hinske, Eric

Stern, Adam

Hyzdu, Adam

Crespo, Cesar

Harris, Willie

 

I take Manny in left over any of those career backups any day of the week

[Jayhawk Bill]

I take Manny in left over any of those career backups any day of the week

 

Overall, at the same salary, in 2008? Sure: Manny can hit a little bit.

 

The point is that it's possible to play league-average (or better) defense as Boston's left fielder. Manny's gotten most of the playing time, but even scanning through these "career backups" a whole bunch have proven that it's possible to play a good left field for Boston, most recently Eric Hinske this year. Eric Hinske isn't a Gold Glove outfielder, just a hard-charging four corners guy, and he's way better than Manny in left field.

 

Every time I post that Manny's defense costs the Red Sox about 40 runs each year, I get people complaining that it's all the Park Factor of the Green Monster. It's not: it's that Manny is a really bad defender. That's why I post this list of left fielders who manage to play defense just fine.

 

Let's look at it differently: who are the worst ten left fielders of the past five years, again by UZR?

 

[table]Name | runs total | runs per 150G

Cabrera, Miguel | -15 | -11

Biggio, Craig | -15 | -31

Bonds, Barry | -16 | -6

Burrell, Pat | -17 | -5

Guillen, Jose | -20 | -17

Gonzalez, Luis | -27 | -8

Lee, Carlos | -28 | -7

Matsui, Hideki | -47 | -14

Dunn, Adam | -48 | -13

Ramirez, Manny | -110 | -29[/table]

 

Manny has cost his team twice as many runs on defense as any other left fielder in MLB over five years. The only guy from the top ten with a worse rate was Biggio, an old second baseman playing out of position, and even Biggio's rate is better than Manny's in any of the past three seasons.

 

How much is Manny's hitting worth?

 

FWIW, his VORPr (VORP per Game) this year was 0.268. Over 150 games, he's worth 40.2 runs (0.268 x 150) more than a AAA call-up left fielder.

 

His defense, though, is worth 40 runs less than such a player.

 

This is why I don't see Manny as being worth $20 million. Of course, YMMV. :dunno:

[das11209]

That's an insult. I was a boy decades ago.

 

 

I was trying to play Tony Kornheizer of pardon the interuption - no offence intended.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I was trying to play Tony Kornheizer of pardon the interuption - no offence intended.

 

 

Thanks for the kind explanation.

[example1]

Jayhawk Bill wrote a lot, among which I found:

 

I think that it's roughly as easy as saying, "What's the best way to use $20 million in payroll to help this team?" and rationally analyzing what player gives the best return for that money. One superior option is probably Jason Bay; there are others.

 

I think that Bay would be an excellent option. I'm sure that through all this stuff with Santana the Sox are thinking about guys like Masterson, Bowden, Lowrie, Lester, etc., as possible pieces for a guy like Bay and hence they don't just throw everything at Santana.

 

What the hell happened to Bay last year though? He lost more than 2 RC/G off his career average... Even so, he has a career .890 OPS after his disappointing 07.

 

An outfield of Jason Bay, Jacoby Ellsbury, and JD Drew would be pretty formidable as well. It wouldn't be as explosive offensively as Manny, but Bay and Drew both have excellent plate discipline and make very difficult outs. I've liked Bay for a long time but again, what the hell happened?