Schilling a Type A, Gagne a Type B FA

[jacksonianmarch]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/al/2007-10-31-elias-rankings-complete_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

[Jayhawk Bill]

Thanks for the link!

 

Not that it's that important, but Elias uses a combined ranking scale indexed to make the best player 100.000. That player is David Ortiz.

 

***

 

Wow. Part of the calculus in acquiring Eric Gagne was that Boston would get Type A compensation:

 

* Unlike many folks, I wasn’t overjoyed about this deal when I first heard it. Trading prospects for half-season rentals oftentimes doesn’t work out — the team giving up the young guns is more likely to be on the Bagwell-to-Houston side of things than the Tek-and-Lowe to Boston one. But — and this is a big, big, but — the Sox are going to get two compensatory draft picks if Gagne goes somewhere else in ‘08 (and you can bet your ass Boras will make sure he closes in ‘08 and beyond) b/c EG is a Type A free agent.

 

http://www.sethmnookin.com/blog/2007/08/02/darkman-and-gagne-and-paps-oh-my/

 

From the link above, there were 25 Type A relief pitchers. Here are the last ten:

 

16 Joaquin Benoit 75.893 A
17 Fernando Rodney 75.716 A
18 Alan Embree 75.362 A
19 Scott Downs 74.196 A
20 George Sherrill 73.842 A
21 Justin Speier 72.923 A
22 Joakim Soria 72.853 A
23 Jeremy Accardo 72.782 A
24 Jamie Walker 72.393 A
25 Matt Guerrier 72.040 A

 

Gagne was a top-notch closer for four months of the season. To miss qualifying with those guys, he really, really had to mess up--which we know he did. He ended up 40th, behind, among others, Mike Timlin.

 

Just as an aside, yes, I know that these are multi-year rankings. BJ Ryan managed to finish tenth despite that.

[ORS]

This is compounded by the fact that he was so bad that I don't think they can risk offering him arbitration. He won't get a pay cut in arb, and he won't likely get what he got last year, so he'd take the arb offer, IMO. Oh well, broke some eggs to make the omelet, and the breakfast was good.

[Jayhawk Bill]

This is compounded by the fact that he was so bad that I don't think they can risk offering him arbitration. He won't get a pay cut in arb' date=' and he won't likely get what he got last year, so he'd take the arb offer, IMO. Oh well, broke some eggs to make the omelet, and the breakfast was good.[/quote']

 

Probably right.

 

Playing Devil's Advocate for a moment:

 

1) Eric Gagne was absolutely stellar outside save situations. Check the Game Log: he lost his confidence on August 10th, blowing a four-run lead and allowing Baltimore to win. After that date, he pitched in four save situations, allowing 7 ER in 3.2 IP, blowing three out of four and needing Papelbon to bail him out with two outs in the other one. Pitching in twelve non-save situations, including seven games down by just one or two runs, he allowed 1 ER in 11.2 IP. There's nothing wrong with his arm, IMHO, there's something wrong with his confidence.

 

2) IIRC, Boston can offer a 20% pay cut in arbitration with no incentives. Given his extraordinary collapse, he'd likely settle for something little better than that--say $5 million with hefty incentives for challenging goals including 30+ GF, All Star selection, Cy Young contention, MVP contention and Comeback Player of the Year.

 

If Gagne regains his confidence--and I expect that he will--he's that 1 ER in 11.2 IP pitcher, not the guy looking as if he's having full-blown panic attacks on the pitcher's mound.

 

***

 

I'd consider the gamble of offering him arbitration. I don't think that I'd do it--but I wanted to point out the extraordinary split.

[riverside sluggers]

Even if he accepts arbitration, the Sox can still easily swing him off in a trade

[ACL BoSox]

Type B free agents give us next to nothing in return.

 

I say try and resign Gagne at a reasonable price and hope that he can work out his problems in 2008. The guy has talent, he just needs to gain the confidence back.

 

Plus, how much could he possibly costs to retain?

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox have one of the best closers in the game. Gagne wants to close. He showed enough stuff to prove he can pitch, and he stayed healthy. Someone will pay up and Boras knows this. I have a feeling a team like Philly would take a shot and move Myers back to the rotation.

[Fried Neckbones]

I would expect that he would take another one-year deal. If he does want to close in the future (and you can bet your ass that Boras wants him to, as others have pointed out), he needs the opportunity to put up good numbers in save situations again. It's really a no-lose for the Sox if he does agree to a one-year deal. One of three things will happen - he'll recover his confidence and they can a) trade him for talent at the deadline or have a lights out setup man for a year and then let him walk as a type A next year or c) he'll suck and it's only money and he's gone anyway. It won't get any worse than it is now.

 

Edit: You're right jacksonian, he probably will get an offer from somebody, I just think the Sox should make an offer rather than consider him washed up. The upside outweighs the down if he accepts.

[ACL BoSox]

I would expect that he would take another one-year deal. If he does want to close in the future (and you can bet your ass that Boras wants him to, as others have pointed out), he needs the opportunity to put up good numbers in save situations again. It's really a no-lose for the Sox if he does agree to a one-year deal. One of three things will happen - he'll recover his confidence and they can a) trade him for talent at the deadline or have a lights out setup man for a year and then let him walk as a type A next year or c) he'll suck and it's only money and he's gone anyway. It won't get any worse than it is now.

 

Edit: You're right jacksonian, he probably will get an offer from somebody, I just think the Sox should make an offer rather than consider him washed up. The upside outweighs the down if he accepts.

 

 

I agree, at this point I doubt he'd get money from anyone to be a closer. Stay with the sox for one more year, improve you stock (it can't get worse), and then next year you can earn the big bucks as a closer somewhere else and we can get Type A compensation.

[Mr Crunchy]

The sox have one of the best closers in the game. Gagne wants to close. He showed enough stuff to prove he can pitch' date=' and he stayed healthy. Someone will pay up and Boras knows this. I have a feeling a team like Philly would take a shot and move Myers back to the rotation.[/quote']

 

sure

a nice nl east park would suit this guy just fine

or the yanks could use him after rivera goes to l.a so he can pitch closer to his home in panama and play for a contender

[elsrbueno]

I say offer Gagne arbritration. Worst case is he accepts and you're stuck with a pretty decent arm (albeit a guy who struggled) to set up Papelbon. If he declines, at least you get the compensation.

 

For what it's worth, Mike Lowell (if he signs elsewhere) is a Type A free agent.

[jacksonianmarch]

The point is, though, that Gagne would make MORE money in arbitration than he made this yr based solely upon his Texas stats. If you take him to arb and he accepts, you may be stuck with a player who sucks for 8 mil. Not something that can cripple the sox, but certainly a pain in the ass if he sucks. Then again, I dont see Gagne accepting, so if I were theo, I'd offer it and take my chances.

[Soxfan1]

So if the rays hypothetically signed schilling we'd get their first rounder? And if they signed Gagne we'd get their second rounder?

But what happens if the Rays sign another type A?

[jacksonianmarch]

No. The top 10 or 15 draft picks are inexchangeable. If the DRays signed Schilling, you would get a supplemental 1st rounder and the DRays second round pick.

[CrespoBlows]

It depends.

 

If the D-Rays were to sign Johan Santana, and Curt Schilling, the Twins would get the higher pick from the D-Rays.