Strikeouts

[TheKilo]

Why do people think strikeouts are such a bad thing? I mean, a guy like Adam Dunn strikes out a lot, yes, but he still gets on base about 40% of the time and is good for 40+ homers a year.

 

Last I checked, a strikeout counts the same as a groundout, popout, or flyout. In fact, a strikeout is actually better than a double play!

 

Im curious, why do some on this board laud contact guys like Mark Loretta and Darin Erstad, but curse guys like Adam Dunn and even Ryan Howard for "striking out too much"?

[BruinsFan]

I think people are upset by strikeouts because they'd rather see the ball put in play. It gives them reassurance that the person isn't completely missing the ball. I agree, people like Adam Dunn shouldn't be downgraded talent wise because they strike out a lot, but if you miss the ball, you aren't even giving the play a chance to begin. It is a little more negative than a play being made on you.

[26 Reasons to Hate Us]

I think people are upset by strikeouts because they'd rather see the ball put in play. It gives them reassurance that the person isn't completely missing the ball. I agree' date=' people like Adam Dunn shouldn't be downgraded talent wise because they strike out a lot, but if you miss the ball, you aren't even giving the play a chance to begin. It is a little more negative than a play being made on you.[/quote']

 

Agreed. Also there is some benefits to ground outs, pop outs, etc., they could move a runner over or perhaps even score a run.

[ORS]

Ks are guaranteed outs. Non-hit contact events have the possibilty of a positive outcome. Errors, moving runners over, and even RBIs. That said, the DP is big negative. Look at the delta from the Expected-Runs matrix for each event. The first number is the expected runs for the situation, the second is the expected runs after the DP (with the lead runner advanced where applicable), the third is the delta:

 

Runner on 1st, no outs: .816, .105, -.711

Runner on 1st/2nd, no outs: 1.442, .314, -1.128

Loaded, no outs: 2.810, 1.314, -1.496

 

In the loaded situation, notice how it's 1.314 after the event. That is the same as 1st/2nd, but with a run scored, so even though you are actually scoring there, it's still a big negative. Here are the 1-out scenarios:

 

1st: .571

1st/2nd: .720

Loaded: 1.788

 

They obviously all drop to zero.

 

There are no appreciable benefits in the matrix in any situation where the runners are moved over for an out. Of course, it's important to remember these are theoretical expectancies, and some times you beat it while others you fall short. Due to that theoretical nature, I'll always take a run on the board. It is also important to remember that the alternative to the runner advancing outs is a K with the runners not advancing.

 

With all that said, it takes several runner-advancing plays to account for one DP in the theoretical matrix, so the overreaction to the K is unwarranted.

[Optimist]

...and that settles that.

[TheKilo]

 

With all that said, it takes several runner-advancing plays to account for one DP in the theoretical matrix, so the overreaction to the K is unwarranted.

 

Ballgame. Thanks, ORS.

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont give a flying f*** if a guy is a strikeout machine, so long as he can hit to the situation. If he goes up there with a runner on second and 0 out, I expect him to either get a hit or try to move the runner. If he goes up there with a runner on 3rd and less than 2, I expect him to try to drive it to the OF. Aside from that, the K is harmless for the most part.

 

A perfect example of this is Jeter, who has his fair share of K's, but will shorten up when warranted and place the ball.

[Cocos Disciples]

Thanks for using Dunn and Erstad! Like my Joe Morgan rant in the game thread.

[CrespoBlows]

Ks are guaranteed outs. Non-hit contact events have the possibilty of a positive outcome. Errors, moving runners over, and even RBIs. That said, the DP is big negative. Look at the delta from the Expected-Runs matrix for each event. The first number is the expected runs for the situation, the second is the expected runs after the DP (with the lead runner advanced where applicable), the third is the delta:

 

Runner on 1st, no outs: .816, .105, -.711

Runner on 1st/2nd, no outs: 1.442, .314, -1.128

Loaded, no outs: 2.810, 1.314, -1.496

 

In the loaded situation, notice how it's 1.314 after the event. That is the same as 1st/2nd, but with a run scored, so even though you are actually scoring there, it's still a big negative. Here are the 1-out scenarios:

 

1st: .571

1st/2nd: .720

Loaded: 1.788

 

They obviously all drop to zero.

 

There are no appreciable benefits in the matrix in any situation where the runners are moved over for an out. Of course, it's important to remember these are theoretical expectancies, and some times you beat it while others you fall short. Due to that theoretical nature, I'll always take a run on the board. It is also important to remember that the alternative to the runner advancing outs is a K with the runners not advancing.

 

With all that said, it takes several runner-advancing plays to account for one DP in the theoretical matrix, so the overreaction to the K is unwarranted.

 

MAN FUK U WILY MO POP UP FUKING SUX U KNO HUS RAW DARIN ERSTAD HE f***ING PUNTER AT NEBRASK WAS WILY MO POP UP NO SO QUIT PISSIN ON MY CHILDHOOD DAVID ECKSTEIN HAS GRIT IN HIS DNA SO DOES LORETTA BECAUSE GRIT= 50 RUNS A GAME THAT's WHY THE RED SOX ONE THE WORLD SERIES WITH LORETTA DELTA LOL SOUNDS LIKE THE NILE FAG!!!

[Cocos Disciples]

Well said.