5th starter?

[ORS]

I for one am not too worried about Wakefield breaking down. Remember knuckleballers are always more durable. Schilling didn't break down till the end of the season last year. Plus they all seem healthy today which wasn't the case at this time last year.

Yes, knuckleballers are more durable, but I think that is due more to the fact that their stuff won't wane with age. I don't think it is due to less likelihood of injury. Older pitchers don't tend to breakdown in the arm. It's usually something else like the back or the legs. And, both Schilling and Wake were healthy going into last year. Sure, there was some doubt about Schilling given his '05 performance, but he was healthy going into the year.

[jacksonianmarch]

I find it very interesting that people think the sox top 3 is going to be a sub 4ERA, three headed monster. Schilling and Beckett still have a lot to prove as does Matsuzaka. After watching Matsuzaka this preseason I would assume that he will be right under the 4ERA mark. He will not adjust seamlessly, but the arsenal will make him very effective this season. I expect him to get better as he learns the league. Beckett was a disaster last yr, and even if he figures out his blister issue, he needs to bring that curve back to what it was in the past. A 97mph fastball is not enough in the ALE. I'd think Beckett improves over last yr, but more in the mid to upper 4ERA range. Schilling is a guy who will start out strong again and with his age, probably fade to a 4ERA guy overall. The top 3 isnt bulletproof, they can be beaten. But with the closer and the offense, they should be very good. Papelbon gave them 4 starters who would likely be the same way. Solid, dominant at times and tough to beat. But the loss of the closer would make all of them a little easier to beat as they would just have to be waited out.

 

At the same time, this move rushes Lester, something I am adamantly against. I like the kid, and after watching him throw last season (cancer or not), his stuff wasnt there and neither was his location. I have heard from some on multiple sites that he isnt even breaking 90 these days. Can anyone confirm this? If that is the case, then Lester shouldnt even be sent to AAA right off the bat. He should be sent to Extended ST so he can work on rebuilding his arm and his body's strength. I said it when he was diagnosed and I'll say it again. Lester needs a year. To rush him hurts the organization and could seriously damage (either physically, emotionally, or command/stuff-wise) his development.

[ORS]

From what I've read, Lester is back to his original weight and back to full strength. If that is the case, I don't see a problem with him starting the year in AAA. I've read nothing about his velocity. The important thing to me is that he not be called up unless he's got his stuff all the way back and he's improved his command.

 

I'm not suggesting the results in ST mean a whole lot, but Beckett is a completely different pitcher if you watch him. He throwing a consistently nasty deuce, as well mixing in some changeups and a good 2-seam FB. He's not just pumping gas, and he's starting to pitch.

[jacksonianmarch]

From what I've read, Lester is back to his original weight and back to full strength. If that is the case, I don't see a problem with him starting the year in AAA. I've read nothing about his velocity. The important thing to me is that he not be called up unless he's got his stuff all the way back and he's improved his command.

 

I'm not suggesting the results in ST mean a whole lot, but Beckett is a completely different pitcher if you watch him. He throwing a consistently nasty deuce, as well mixing in some changeups and a good 2-seam FB. He's not just pumping gas, and he's starting to pitch.

 

He was pitching in the first few starts last season if I remember correctly. His first 3 starts, he was damn near untouchable. That was when the cut on his finger occured if I remember correctly. If he gets around getting cuts (which is something they can do now that they know the diagnosis, but it still wont be 100% preventable) he should be fine. It is on the sox, though, to protect their investment and sit him after he cuts himself. If he tries to avoid getting cut or having blisters erupt, he will go back to the BP machine.

[ORS]

No, I watched him then (and last ST), and it was mainly FB/Curve at about a 4/1 ratio to begin the year. He's mixing it up a lot more now.

[Mr Crunchy]

becks curve ball was better saturday than at any point last year

it is the missing pitch that he needs to harness and when he masters it he becomes very difficult to hit and cy young material in the process

 

so long as he throws it for strikes

[ORS]

becks curve ball was better saturday than at any point last year

it is the missing pitch that he needs to harness and when he masters it he becomes very difficult to hit and cy young material in the process

 

so long as he throws it for strikes

I agree, Crunch, and what has me optimistic is that it didn't come out of nowhere. It looked just as good 5 days ago against the Twins. If that is the deuce he's throwing all year, it will be good things for the Sox.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

I have heard from some on multiple sites that he isnt even breaking 90 these days. Can anyone confirm this?

 

I read the other day that he pitched well and his fastball hit 91 MPH once.

 

I couldn't agree with you more on Lester...I really like him, and think he has the makings to be a solid #3 or #4, even in the ALE, but not yet.

 

Lester had cancer last year...we all know that. But medically-speaking, it's not the cancer that makes people weak and effects performance. It's the treatment that drains your body of so much strength and energy because it kills off the good cells in addition to the bad; the therapy can't tell the difference. My point is...the things that we saw last year from Lester...not the good stuff, the things that need improvement, can't be attributed to the cancer. If he's 100% healthy and back at full-strength, then we have the pitcher we had last year who, IMO, would GREATLY benefit from one more year at AAA.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

I find it very interesting that people think the sox top 3 is going to be a sub 4ERA' date=' three headed monster. [/quote']

 

I don't think this is a given by any means, and if that's how I conveyed it, then that's my bad. All I was getting at was that I think the top 3 are CAPABLE of posting that. Give me one other team that is AS CAPABLE as the Sox of posting a top 3 with sub-4 ERAs...the Tigers? Maaaaaaaaaaybe the Angels?

[jacksonianmarch]

The yankees were closer, btw as both Wang and Mussina were well below 4 and Pettitte was at 4.2. Papelbon in the rotation gave the sox the advantage in the NYY-BOS rivalry. Paps out and Tavarez in gives them a tie IMHO, and that is because Wake is more reliable than anything we have in the 4-5 hole.

[jacksonianmarch]

No' date=' I watched him then (and last ST), and it was mainly FB/Curve at about a 4/1 ratio to begin the year. He's mixing it up a lot more now.[/quote']

 

you would know, I havent seen him thus far. That is certainly favorable for you.

[CrespoBlows]

The yankees were closer' date=' btw as both Wang and Mussina were well below 4 and Pettitte was at 4.2. Papelbon in the rotation gave the sox the advantage in the NYY-BOS rivalry. Paps out and Tavarez in gives them a tie IMHO, and that is because Wake is more reliable than anything we have in the 4-5 hole.[/quote']

 

You've got to be kidding.

[jacksonianmarch]

You've got to be kidding.

 

no, I'm not. Look at the matchups now.

 

Wang > Schilling

Mussina > Beckett

Pettitte

Igawa

Pavano >= Tavarez

 

Our top 2 held up to your top 2 even with Papelbon in the rotation. But you had the 3-5 slots locked up at that point.

[CrespoBlows]

no, I'm not. Look at the matchups now.

 

Wang > Schilling

Mussina > Beckett

Pettitte

Igawa

Pavano >= Tavarez

 

Our top 2 held up to your top 2 even with Papelbon in the rotation. But you had the 3-5 slots locked up at that point.

 

Oh, I got you. I thought you were calculating it with the injuries, but I agree with your statement.

 

BTW, you're being way too nice for that fifth starter position.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

no, I'm not. Look at the matchups now.

 

Wang > Schilling

Mussina > Beckett

Pettitte

Igawa

Pavano >= Tavarez

 

Our top 2 held up to your top 2 even with Papelbon in the rotation. But you had the 3-5 slots locked up at that point.

 

Wang's already starting the season on the DL...how can you say the rotations are equal if your number 1 is already banged up? Doesn't it speak volumes for your rotation that your throwing out Pavano on Opening Day? Schilling's second-half inflated his ERA big time, pre-ASB he had an ERA just over 3.6. His second-half breakdown could repeat itself, as I don't feel that age/conditioning are playing in his favor...but out of the gate, you've gotta give the edge to the Sox just looking purely at health concerns, previous years, and ST performance.

[CrespoBlows]

But Tavarez, freaking Tavarez......

 

http://laki.dvhk.pl/beta/cutenews/data/emoticons/suicide.gif

[HeadOfSoxNation]

Pettitte was at 4.2.

 

Pettitte was at 4.2 with a free out once every 9 batters in the NL Central...incase we haven't said it enough, the ALE is a whole new ballgame.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pettitte finished the yr sub 3 in the last half of the yr. His first half was very unconventional for him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wang's already starting the season on the DL...how can you say the rotations are equal if your number 1 is already banged up? Doesn't it speak volumes for your rotation that your throwing out Pavano on Opening Day? Schilling's second-half inflated his ERA big time' date=' pre-ASB he had an ERA just over 3.6. His second-half breakdown could repeat itself, as I don't feel that age/conditioning are playing in his favor...but out of the gate, you've gotta give the edge to the Sox just looking purely at health concerns, previous years, and ST performance.[/quote']

 

Our #1 has a hammy problem. Something that is annoying, but not an arm issue to where it will affect him later on. Yeah, he could pull the hammy again, but it doesnt have the potential to be hanging him up for the season like an arm injury would. If everything goes right, he is in the rotation the third week of april. If it doesnt, he will likely be back in early May.

 

As far as Pavano starting opening day, it speaks more to how annoying Mike Mussina can be. Mussina would have to shorten his last ST start and throw on 3 days rest to open the season. He will not do that. They dont want to rush Pettitte and having him pitch opening day would force him to miss his last ST start, something that would be vital to his being ready for regular season. Having Igawa throw on opening day could be too much for him right off the bat. So what better way to get Pussano back into the good graces of NY than by having him start opening day vs the hapless rays? That must be their thinking. It doesnt speak for the status of the rotation as Pavano is likely the worst pitcher in our rotation, even when Rasner will be the 5.

[jacksonianmarch]

but out of the gate' date=' you've gotta give the edge to the Sox just looking purely at health concerns, previous years, and ST performance[/b'].

absolutely true. out of the gate, you rotation looks better. In May, thing will be totally different. And come July someone may have decided edge when Clemens decides to pitch.

[ORS]

Our #1 has a hammy problem. Something that is annoying' date=' but not an arm issue to where it will affect him later on.[/quote']

A leg injury can turn into an arm injury in a flash. I'd be concerned about that since he's had shoulder issues in the past.

[jacksonianmarch]

A leg injury can turn into an arm injury in a flash. I'd be concerned about that since he's had shoulder issues in the past.

 

I hear ya. Hence why they are being very cautious with him.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

A leg injury can turn into an arm injury in a flash. I'd be concerned about that since he's had shoulder issues in the past.

 

Very true...if you can't drive with your legs, you start overthrowing and straying from safe mechanics and BEG for a serious arm injury.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

absolutely true. out of the gate' date=' you rotation looks better. In May, thing will be totally different. And come July someone may have decided edge when Clemens decides to pitch.[/quote']

 

In May, things MAY be totally different. They could also stay very much the same.

 

God I can't wait for this freaking season to start.

[jacksonianmarch]

 

God I can't wait for this freaking season to start.

 

AMEN brother.

[riverside sluggers]

From that list Id say Kason Gabbard. He did a good job up in the bigs' date=' posting a 3.51 ERA including the 7 shutout innings against the White Sox. He also has just had a productive ST[/quote']

 

yea...

[CrespoBlows]

Great.

 

He shutout the Royals. He had a 1.51 WHIP coming into tonight's game, so let's not start jacking ourselves off, yet.

[example1]

He's the kind of pitcher that I can never predict and who if I were another team would love to see on the mound. He reminds me of Kenny Rogers. Rogers has proven to be an excellent pitcher throughout his career, although I can't figure out how or why this is the case.

[MANNYHOF24]

Great.

 

He shutout the Royals. He had a 1.51 WHIP coming into tonight's game, so let's not start jacking ourselves off, yet.

 

Even so, with the way Tavarez has been going, and the fact that he also pitched decent against the Tigers wouldn't you rather have Gabbard in there instead of Tavarez?

[jacksonianmarch]

Gabbard should unseat Tavarez in the rotation. Is it much of an upgrade? Probably not. What they lose in stuff, they gain in durability, so it could be a tradeoff. Then again, you play the hot hand. And if Gabbard has success allowing 3 baserunners every 2 innings, then god bless him and he should enjoy those times. Cause they wont last long.