Helton Rumors

[BSN07]

Take it for what its worth. If they eat 40M+ of his salary then I wouldn't mind seeing them ship 1 prospect plus Taveras and Lowell.

 

 

Helton Meets With Rockies' Owner

Take it for what it's worth - Rockies first baseman Todd Helton met with team owner Charlie Monfort on Thursday but declined to comment on the nature of the conversation. In the opinion of Buster Olney:

 

"If the Red Sox and Rockies rekindled trade talks, getting a deal done might take about 3.4 seconds, because there was already a structure in place and both sides would have great reason to be motivated to get this done."

 

And Ken Davidoff of Newsday mentioned today:

 

"The widespread industry belief is that the Red Sox and Rockies will re-ignite trade discussions involving Todd Helton. The two clubs remain stalled in a game of chicken. Boston doesn't want to give up any young players with potential, with only expensive veterans Mike Lowell and Julian Tavarez on the table, and the Rockies don't want to hand over Helton in a straight salary dump."

 

The Red Sox remain in the catbird seat with this potential deal, as Helton is not a strong need for them in any way. They can just sit back and see if the Rockies cave and pay $40-45MM of his contract to get Manny Delcarmen.

[Cityofchampions33]

I'll take a game of chicken. Theo should walk away from this without giving up MDC or Hansen. Taverz, Lowell for Helton and cash would be phenomonal. That said, I expect a lower tier pitching prospect to be given up. Pauley?

[jacksonianmarch]

I'll take a game of chicken. Theo should walk away from this without giving up MDC or Hansen. Taverz' date=' Lowell for Helton and cash would be phenomonal. That said, I expect a lower tier pitching prospect to be given up. Pauley?[/quote']

 

Helton just packed on 20 pounds after that intestinal illness. He is coming off his worst 2 season stretch of his career. Selling low on him right now is foolish. If Helton is healthy and strong, he could go from salary dump to highly coveted player in half a season. If I were the rockies, I'd hold out until mid season and reassess then. If he is still powerless, then the deal is still there, because a powerless Helton is still worth more than Tavares and Lowell.

[jacksonianmarch]

Now if Helton is still powerless, he isnt much of an upgrade, but he is still an upgrade. But if he regains that power and goes to the sox, then that is one hell of a lineup and it will rise up to nearly equal that of NY's.

[ksushi]

Powerless or not, Helton is still taking up way too much payroll to allow the rockies to be competitive. They will trade him, maybe they'll do it at mid-season, but they take more risk the more they wait. I would give up MDC in a heart beat in this deal, Hansen, not so much. I think talks will heat up again, but I don't know if Theo will make a move because he is more stubborn about prospects and young pitchers than any man on earth. I highly doubt anything gets done just because of that.

 

If the Rockies all of a sudden become willing to pay 45-50 mil ( i think they were willing to do 30 - 35 before correct me if im wrong) then the Sox will probably be willing to talk about MDC or someone of that ilk. No way does Ellsbury or Hansen go anywhere though.

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont think the rockies will do a deal that doesnt involve either a future closer, position player or starter. I dont see them accepting MDC as he projects more as a middle relief guy. And if all you get in return for the best player in your frnchises history is a fringe middle relief prospect, then you have done your fans a disservice. Having Helton's cash off the books does nothing for them right now, but getting rid of it prior to the offseason will be helpful. That is why I think Helton gets dealt by midseason or in an early offseason move. Right now you are selling low on a very valuable commodity.

[ksushi]

Everything I've read suggests the Rockies are holding out for Delcarmen. Delcarmen hasn't put up numbers at the ML level but to say he projects as a MR is underrating him a bit. He has upside. He's what, 26? throws 95, good curve, needs to show consistency. The NL could do wonders for him. MDC and Fuentes in the NL is kinda cool.

[jacksonianmarch]

MDC has never been considered a closer in waiting. His location is poor enough to lower his ceiling. Hansen, on the other hand, when he is going right can locate all of his pitches. That makes him a solid closer candidate.

[MANNYHOF24]

If Colorado would accept and Taverez, Lowell and MDC for Helton and money, then I would do it in a heartbeat.

[jacksonianmarch]

I would too. MDC isnt even a top prospect. If they get off without having any residual future damage, then they should do it.

[example1]

Any discussions involving MDC or Hansen should continue. My take is that the bullpen is largely in trouble for this season, with or without Hansen. They can address the pen again next offseason or with guy slike Cox and Edgar Martinez continuing to develop. YOu can find MLB average relief pretty easily.

 

Adding a guy like Helton could be the last significant move that this team needs to make for the next couple of years in my opinion. Adding Helton (even at 80% of his traditional self) to a lineup that has already secured Manny, Ortiz, drew, Lugo, Varitek, Crisp, WMP, etc., for the next few years adds a tremendous amount of defense and OBP skills in a lineup with tremendous power already. If they don't need to make significant moves for pitching or hitting the next few years, and they can get this deal done with Lowell, Tavarez and MDC or CH then that means that Ellsbury, Bard, Bowden, Buchholz, Masterson and Cox are all safe.

 

In other words, the Sox would give up two overpriced veterans and one of the picks they got for letting go of Derek Lowe (!). Most teams are aware that the sox have had a winfall of draft picks recently by taking advantage of the system, so I imagine they're getting pressed for more than one of those picks with a lot of these discussions.

[elsrbueno]

Powerless or not, Helton is still taking up way too much payroll to allow the rockies to be competitive. They will trade him, maybe they'll do it at mid-season, but they take more risk the more they wait. I would give up MDC in a heart beat in this deal, Hansen, not so much. I think talks will heat up again, but I don't know if Theo will make a move because he is more stubborn about prospects and young pitchers than any man on earth. I highly doubt anything gets done just because of that.

 

If the Rockies all of a sudden become willing to pay 45-50 mil ( i think they were willing to do 30 - 35 before correct me if im wrong) then the Sox will probably be willing to talk about MDC or someone of that ilk. No way does Ellsbury or Hansen go anywhere though.

 

I would argue that Bill Stoneman is more stubborn about giving up prospects. When was the last time the Angels actually traded one?

[ksushi]

Stoneman is ridiculous, but he might look very smart if they can get wood, kendrick and mcpherson in that lineup.

[BSN07]

Playing chicken is fine by me, we have a good enough lineup right now, Helton will just be a plus. We have the advantage right now, but if Helton comes out swinging and COL waits until closer to the trade deadline the advantage goes towards COL.

[jacksonianmarch]

Stoneman is ridiculous' date=' but he might look very smart if they can get wood, kendrick and mcpherson in that lineup.[/quote']

 

mcpherson is out for another season and all indications are that he is on the block or may be released. If that is the case, Wood may be moved to 3b. BTW, their best 1b will be Morales and theoretically, if McPherson were healthy they could have an IF of Napoli, Morales, Kendrick, Wood, and McPherson. Talk about a young, powerful infield.

[ORS]

Wood has already made the move to 3B. I think their "youngster" IF projects to be as follows:

 

1B - Kendry Morales

2B - Howie Kendrick

SS - Erick Aybar

3B - Brandon Wood

[a700hitter]

Playing chicken is fine by me' date=' we have a good enough lineup right now, Helton will just be a plus. We have the advantage right now, but if Helton comes out swinging and COL waits until closer to the trade deadline the advantage goes towards COL.[/quote']If all the haggling is about is MDC, someone in the FO needs to give Theo a cold hard slap. Helton is an offensive powerhouse, and he is motivated to get out of Colorado. If Theo delays, I would not be surprised if the Yankees stepped in and traded away a couple of their over-hyped pitchers. Theo has to jump on this if it is available.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wood has already made the move to 3B. I think their "youngster" IF projects to be as follows:

 

1B - Kendry Morales

2B - Howie Kendrick

SS - Erick Aybar

3B - Brandon Wood

 

add Napoli to the bunch and that is a damn good IF.

[Mr Crunchy]

since 04 heltons power #s have fallen thru the floor

youk had more extra base hits than helton last year didnt he??

i know lowell did

 

unless helton can close i dont see how he improves our team all that much

hes an upgrade in the field but not all that much

 

isnt it funny how giambi and k brown both had these intestinal illnesses??

now helton,who has dropped from 49hrs to 15hrs,had an intestinal illness as well....

hmnn

 

unless colorado is eating a s*** load of his eternal deal i say we pass on him and start getting serious about a bullpen

[ORS]

I think Helton's drop-off is alarming, but for different reasons than you, Crunch. Colorado went to a humidor right around the time his numbers started dropping in order to keep the ball a little heavier to help their pitchers. That, to me, is the cause, and I wonder how good his power numbers will be closer to sea level. He just doesn't look the roided out type. I mean, he's not like Giambi, who's sweating like a stuck pig in October when everyone else has a turtleneck on under the uniform.

[Mr Crunchy]

49-15??

humidor is one thing that would partially explain his hr drop off

but that wouldnt explain the gross drop in xtra base hits would it?

 

i fear hes a very expensive kevin youkilis

[jacksonianmarch]

49-15??

humidor is one thing that would partially explain his hr drop off

but that wouldnt explain the gross drop in xtra base hits would it?

 

i fear hes a very expensive kevin youkilis

 

or he is a more durable JD Drew

[ORS]

49-15??

humidor is one thing that would partially explain his hr drop off

but that wouldnt explain the gross drop in xtra base hits would it?

 

i fear hes a very expensive kevin youkilis

That's some nice creative editting. It's actually...

 

49-30-33-32-20-15

 

The gross droppoff in X-BH's is all dingers. Take out his phenominal '00-'01 and he's been a 40+ double hitter (with less than a handful of [noparse]3B)[/noparse]. He hit 45 and 40 the last two years.

 

And, his road HR's since '01 have been: 11, 12, 10, 7, 8. Like I said, he was off the charts in '00-'01 (maybe it was PED) with 20+ road bombs each year, but the '02-'05 Helton isn't too far off from what he did last year (when he was sick). He should have no problem putting up a line of .315/.420/.500 or better, which is still damn good.

[TheKilo]

or he is a more durable JD Drew

 

Helton doesn't play RF.

[Mr Crunchy]

That's some nice creative editting. It's actually...

 

49-30-33-32-20-15

 

i understand this and i wasnt intentionally trying to be deceptive.

however

hes signed for an eternity and hes posting #s that albeit decent,dont equate to the money and time he will cost us....and i suspect its all relative considering drew is getting the same coin for the same #s....

[ORS]

I agree, Crunch. Going with the assumption that he can be the '05 Helton again this year, he's 40-50 runs better and about 5-6 wins better than Youk. But, can that hold over the next 4 years? I'm skeptical, and at his contract amount, that can turn into an albatross real quick if he starts showing age.

 

As you've said before, at this point, the focus needs to be on the BP.

[a700hitter]

ORS, I think a sick and injured Helton is far superior to a prime and healthy Youklis. If Helton is healthy, it's not even close. Helton is only 33 years old. I see no reason why that couldn't hold true barring injury.

[TheKilo]

The issues I have with Helton are as follows:

 

1. That contract is atrocious. It honestly might be the worst in baseball, and unless the Rockies are kicking back $45-$50 mil to get the deal done, we shouldn't even be talking about including MDC. MDC may not amount to anything but he's young and cost controlled middle relief, and his peripheral numbers are actually pretty decent. I'd hold on to him for now.

 

2. Helton sucked last year. Whether it be due to the humidor, the illness he suffered, or just natural decline, he was comparable to Youkilis last year and cost a ton of money. Like others have said, if he really is on the decline, signing him when you have Youkilis seems redundant.

 

3. He, for his entire career, has played in arguably the most hitter friendly ballpark in the MLB (with an exception to last year). How much have his numbers been inflated?

 

The advantages to Helton are:

 

1. Like a700 said, when healthy, he is head and shoulders above Youkilis. The man was easily one of the top 10 hitters in baseball from 2000-2004. OPS+ of 158, 160, 143, 168, and 159 respectively. Average of 37.2 HR a season. SLG of .698, .685, .577, .630, and .620.

 

2. Even when he's not healthy he's an OBP machine. He had a OBP of .404 last year, his "off" year. Youkilis, by comparison, had an OBP of .381. Imagine a 3-6 of Ortiz, Ramirez, Drew, and Helton? So many people would be on base, and this lineup would work the count so well, that less than 900 runs would be a disappointment.

 

3. Acquiring Helton for middle relief and prospects will allow us to spin Lowell of for some additional bullpen help.

 

 

Basically, I'd love to see Todd Helton on the Red Sox. The advantages he'd bring to the team are unbelievable. I just think he'll never come here with the way the contract he has is currently structured. It's too bad the thing that's putting him on the market is the thing that's holding him back from moving to a different team.

[jacksonianmarch]

even if the rockies pay the entire contract, as ORS poignantly corrected me on, the cap is based on AAV. Hence why ARod counts for 25 mil n our cap even though the rangers are paying 12 a yr on it. So Helton's contract will hit the cap with full brunt force. The cap is what the sox wish to stay under.

[a700hitter]

I would count on that. That's a business decision to which none of us are privy.