Josh Beckett

[jacksonianmarch]

Josh Beckett seems to be a topic of debate in nearly every thread. Important facts are being skewed on both sides of the fences here, and obviously I am guilty of this too. So lets break him down by the numbers.

 

2005- FLA- 15-8 178.2IP 3.38ERA 153H 67ER 14HR 166K 58BB 1.18WHIP 8.4K/9IP 2.9BB/9IP .669OPS against

2006- BOS-16-11 204.2IP 5.01ERA 191H 114ER 36HR 158K 74BB 1.29WHIP 6.9K/9IP 3.3BB/9IP .766OPS against

 

So obviously he was more durable last yr, but his BAA, OBPA, OPSA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9 and K/BB went up significantly and his HR rate nearly tripled. Now if you break his 2006 campaign into parts, you see this.

 

PreAS- 11-4 110IP 4.75ERA 100H 92K 32BB .239BAA and a 1.2WHIP. The K rate is a bit below his 2005 #s, his BAA is right about where it was before, his WHIP is nearly exactly the same and his BB rate is actually a shade better than his 2005 season. In other words, his first half of last yr wasnt nearly as bad as his ERA would indicate. The only actual indication would be his massive HR total in 110IP of 26HRs.

 

So what happened? He got bat shy. And at the same time he got bat shy, he developed that cut on his finger and attributed it to the curve. He stopped locating it and eventually scrapped it altogether. For proof of this, I was watching one of the NESN broadcasts on a night when the yankees were off and Remy and Orsillo were pointing it out all game. "he's lost faith in his off-speed pitches, he is afraid to throw the curveball, he cannot locate that knee buckling curve." And it was never as evident as it was in his debachle in Fenway when the yankees waited him out. He walked the park because his heater was getting drilled and they knew he couldnt locate the curveball. He was a sitting duck. Thus it attributed to his rancid second half.

 

5-7 94.2IP 5.32ERA 91H 66K 38BB .252BAA and a 1.36 WHIP. That high WHIP, the very high BB rate and the low K rate shows you a pitcher who lost faith in his arsenal. He got bat shy so his BB rate rose. He became one dimensional so his K rate dropped as batters knew what was coming. His HR rate dropped precipitously as he nibbled around the zone, but it came with a large incline in BAA, and for a power pitcher, a 1.36WHIP just isnt cutting it. His ERA in the second half only tells part of the story of how bad he actually was.

 

And for those who point to september as a saving grace, his BAA was still elevated and his K rate was still low. The one thing he was able to harness going into the offseason was a bit of control as his BB rate dropped back to normal. He is a guy who lost faith in his stuff. His numbers bear it out. This isnt about Josh "adjusting the the league" or the league adjusting to him. This is about a kid who has a dominant arsenal of pitches, even if a league adjusts to him, he should dominate. He is a kid who once showed the courage of a lion in the belly of the beast in the Bronx and came out with a ring.

 

This is a kid who needs to look internally for his own good. Having faith in him is useless, he needs to have faith in himself. If he doesnt, then he will regress further. But if he shows he isnt afraid of contact, he isnt afraid of giving up a few homers, then he might be able to get back to the success he should be having. But how many times have we seen someone lose faith in themselves and reclaim it in pressure situations like Boston or NY?

It doesnt happen often, but hey, it could happen.

[riverside sluggers]

I dont see him being a now consistent 30+ HR, 70+ Walk, 5+ ERA type of pitcher

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont see him being a now consistent 30+ HR' date=' 70+ Walk, 5+ ERA type of pitcher[/quote']

 

The fact is, he will be that pitcher if he doesnt incorporate his secondary pitches back in. You cannot get by in the AL with a fastball only.

[TGov]

The fact is' date=' he will be that pitcher if he doesnt incorporate his secondary pitches back in. You cannot get by in the AL with a fastball only.[/quote']

 

of course he cant, if he's gonna throw straight fastball after fastball then he should just toss the ball over the fence... he needs his secondary pitches, he will be great with them and the pitcher we all expect him to be...

[jacksonianmarch]

of course he cant' date=' if he's gonna throw straight fastball after fastball then he should just toss the ball over the fence... he needs his secondary pitches, he will be great with them and the pitcher we all expect him to be...[/quote']

 

If he can locate his curve again with the same break and the same confidence he had at the beginning of the yr, he very well could be a top of the rotation pitcher.

[TGov]

If he can locate his curve again with the same break and the same confidence he had at the beginning of the yr' date=' he very well could be a top of the rotation pitcher.[/quote']

 

we expected him to be the next Ace of Boston when he came in last year, but he bombed, or got bombed after only throwing fastballs.....

 

so is the reason he didnt throw many secondary pitches last year because he was afraid of cutting his finger again?

[jacksonianmarch]

I think it certainly contributed to it. So did his HR rate. Some pitchers dont give a crap about their homer rates. Some get very upset about getting taken deep. It is a macho thing. Hanging curves in Florida are flown out to the wall. Hanging curves in the AL are taken deep.

[example1]

The fact is' date=' he will be that pitcher if he doesnt incorporate his secondary pitches back in. You cannot get by in the AL with a fastball only.[/quote']

 

This is exactly right jacksonian. I think that most sox fans have faith that this wasn't a case of Josh deciding on his own to stop throwing his curve and changeup. I think everyone believes that, to some degree, the Sox FO, or at least the everyday baseball operations guys, were responsible. They have said they wanted him to throw more innings than he ever has, and as the season went on that became more and more important, as they lost other players to injury. For morale's sake alone they wanted him to stay healthy, even if the team blew by then. So they kept telling him to stick with his fastball, kept having Varitek and Mirabelli throw down "1" and it was about as effective as one could expect from someone who only throws one pitch.

 

He didn't throw his curveball. He didn't have good command of his fastball. He stopped throwing his change-up. That's why he sucked. He doesn't inherently suck though. everyone acknowledges that he has tremendous pitches.

 

He threw more 95+ pitches than anyone in baseball this year, and his curve was voted second best in the AL by AL Managers. His stuff is tremendous.

 

What you didn't mention, however, is that he completely changed his motion last season. Whereas in the past he always raised his hands above his head, last year he changed that and had a more compact, close-to-the-body motion. I just pinpointed when he made that change once and for all after studying gametape on MLB.com.

 

For some reason, 5/9/06 was the last start where Beckett used his old motion. That was a 14-3 victory for the Sox against NYY. (7IP, 6 H, 7 K, 0 BB, 3 ER, brought his season ERA to 4.70). In his next start, 5/15/06 against BAL, he didn't raise his hands over his head anymore. In that start he pitched 7 IP, 2 H, 6 K, 0 BB.

 

:dunno:

 

I'm not saying that was the be-all/end-all on it. But I think it signifies a change from Josh Beckett the natural-talent beast to Josh Beckett the guy with talent who has been coached. I think the coaching didn't do him well ultimately and is part of the reason the Sox got themselves a new pitching coach in John Farrell.

 

I think there are a number of factors to why Beckett didn't do as well last year. I don't think any of them have to do with his stuff. Just now I went back and watched highlights from a number of his early season starts. This guy is absolutely filthy. His fastball alone makes people cringe. Two or three (or four or five) times a game though someone gets a hold of one. That's just a given, and its unfortunate. For the most part though he is an intimidating presence.

 

Hopefully the Sox have a plan for how to allow Beckett to throw other pitches, otherwise, they will be in some trouble (unless they end up using Beckett as a closer ).

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

The Red Sox front office is not stupid...I'm sure if they saw Josh Beckett as a liability going into the season they would not have him in the rotation. At this point I think we can expect he will be healthy going into the season and doing a better job selecting his pitches.

 

Does anyone really think Josh Beckett will continue this downward spiral with the Red Sox staff sitting back and allowing it to happen? Something will change

[jacksonianmarch]

Motion or no, his curve was bouncing by the time he was getting bashed by the yankees. I specifically remember him throwing 3 or 4 of them in the first 2 innings that went about 50 feet. They knew he wasnt locating them.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Motion or no' date=' his curve was bouncing by the time he was getting bashed by the yankees. I specifically remember him throwing 3 or 4 of them in the first 2 innings that went about 50 feet. They knew he wasnt locating them.[/quote']

 

I agree and I know he was struggling. Again, I'm sure the Red Sox front office has seen plenty from Josh Beckett to know if he can regain form or not.

 

Worst case scenario: he continues to get crushed and Jon Lester takes his spot in the rotation. I'll bet my money though that he will come around. He has been too good a pitcher in the past to suddenly lose all control. If he was 32-36 years old....I may not be saying the same thing.

[a700hitter]

Jacksonian, you have a strange obsession with Beckett.:dunno:

[jacksonianmarch]

I just think you cannot just pin your hopes on him blindly. He of anyone can be predicted based on how his stuff comes back or if it doesnt. BTW, I think the guy was one hell of a competitor and his fall was hard. That type of implosion was Clement'esque.

[Rodney Harrison]

Jacksonian' date=' you have a strange obsession with Beckett.:dunno:[/quote']

 

It was a fair observation stemming from the Kurkjian thread.

[SuperManny]

I just think you cannot just pin your hopes on him blindly. He of anyone can be predicted based on how his stuff comes back or if it doesnt. BTW' date=' I think the guy was one hell of a competitor and his fall was hard. That type of implosion was Clement'esque.[/quote']

 

We don't have to pin our hopes on him blindly. Thats why we have Schilling, Papelbon, and Matsuzaka. Beckett doesn't need to be an ace in Boston.

 

If you look at his WHIP it suggests that he should have a better ERA. We'll see if that shows itself in 2007.

[jacksonianmarch]

in the first half, yes. In the second half no. WHIP is relative. If you are a pitcher who induces a lot of groundballs, WHIP could be used to your benefit. If you are a flyball pitcher, WHIP is never beneficial and a WHIP circling around 1.3 is poor.

[Ray10]

He has the first year jitters out of his system. I think he'll be fine this season. Well just have to wait and see what happens but I can't see him struggling.

[ORS]

WHIP is relative. If you are a pitcher who induces a lot of groundballs' date=' WHIP could be used to your benefit. [/quote']

What in the f*** does this mean? I swear, you just make s*** up, don't you?

[hoke3182]

in the first half' date=' yes. In the second half no. WHIP is relative. If you are a pitcher who induces a lot of groundballs, WHIP could be used to your benefit. If you are a flyball pitcher, WHIP is never beneficial and a WHIP circling around 1.3 is poor.[/quote']

yeah that was dumb

[jacksonianmarch]

What in the f*** does this mean? I swear' date=' you just make s*** up, don't you?[/quote']

 

I was specifically referring to Wang. If you have a solid GB ratio, that WHIP can be turned into DP's. If you are a flyball pitcher, that WHIP typically doesnt. Bad quote, I know, it was late, I should have called it a night.

[TheKilo]

I was specifically referring to Wang. If you have a solid GB ratio' date=' that WHIP can be turned into DP's. If you are a flyball pitcher, that WHIP typically doesnt. Bad quote, I know, it was late, I should have called it a night.[/quote']

 

Ummm....it still doesn't make sense. Are you trying to say it's OK to have a higher WHIP if you are a groundball pitcher?

[BSN07]

Whatever makes Beckett look like a scrub and makes Wang look like a #1 is what hes trying to get across.

 

Hes trying to get around the fact that the same stats hes using to bash Beckett would also make Wang look bad as well.

[SuperManny]

I was specifically referring to Wang. If you have a solid GB ratio' date=' that WHIP can be turned into DP's. If you are a flyball pitcher, that WHIP typically doesnt. Bad quote, I know, it was late, I should have called it a night.[/quote']

 

I understand what your saying but Wang had a higher WHIP which is not good. Some of those grounders will go through the infield as well. You can get away with a higher WHIP if your a groundball pitcher but it doesn't necessarily predict future success just because Wang is a groundball pitcher. Wang had a worse WHIP than Beckett, the ERA's will probably show this next year.

[jacksonianmarch]

A lot of that is station to station baseball. Take a look at this.

 

Wang's IsoPower against .098

Beckett's IsoP against .205

 

Compared against the best in the game

Santana .144

Zambrano .133

Oswalt .140

Carpenter .129

 

DLowe was tied with Wang and I dont think anyone was lower. You force guys to play station to station baseball while having such a heavy sinker, you will spin a ton of DPs.

[SuperManny]

A lot of that is station to station baseball. Take a look at this.

 

Wang's IsoPower against .098

Beckett's IsoP against .205

 

Compared against the best in the game

Santana .144

Zambrano .133

Oswalt .140

Carpenter .129

 

DLowe was tied with Wang and I dont think anyone was lower. You force guys to play station to station baseball while having such a heavy sinker, you will spin a ton of DPs.

 

Sure, but Wang had a lower WHIP and higher ERA in year 1. A lot has to do with luck as well. If more groundballs find holes then the ERA jumps. Lowe also has a higher K rate than Wang.

[BudLight]

Here's some numbers that haven't been mentioned in the comparison of Beckett and Wang.

 

$4.3M - Beckett's 2006 salary

$353,000 - Wang's 2006 salary

 

Nuf Ced (borrowed )

[ORS]

Here's some numbers that haven't been mentioned in the comparison of Beckett and Wang.

 

$4.3M - Beckett's 2006 salary

$353,000 - Wang's 2006 salary

 

Nuf Ced (borrowed )

Brilliant. This is so predictive of what they will do next year. Well done.

[BudLight]

Brilliant. This is so predictive of what they will do next year. Well done.

 

Actually, it fits this discussion perfectly. It has nothing to do with what they will do this season, much like a lot of the items that have been offered throughout this and other discussions regarding Beckett. Many here believe his magical mystery tour in the Bronx in 2003 somehow raised Beckett to greatness when in fact he pitched his ass off for one game, period! Take into account his 10 trips to the DL in 5 years, his never having pitched 200 innings in a season prior to coming to Boston, his gopher ball servings last year, the fact that he was traded for the NL ROY and a guy who pitched a no-no last year speaks volumes. My point here is, don't compare Beckett and Wang, it's like comparing apples and oranges. The Sox could have 8 Wang's for the price of Beckett which would have accounted for 24 more wins for the Sox and an AL East Pennant.

[Mr Crunchy]

could have 8 wangs for 1 beckett??

then the yanks could have 16 wangs for 1 pavano

 

get it together bb

are you shattered already??

 

sure becketts seen the dl but he didnt see it last year did he??

didnt wang tung see the dl for surgery in 05??

 

give me blisters over tendon and joint trouble all day long

 

i will conceed that coming into this season wang had a great 06 and becks didnt

that was then

lets see how this plays out this season when wang will be their 1 and becks may be our 4 depending on what develops in the next 6 weeks

[schillingouttheks]

Again, the season needs to f***ing start.