Should the Sox resign Schilling out of Spring training?

[jacksonianmarch]

 

Curt Schilling > Jason Johnson and Kyle Snyder

 

a truer statement has never been uttered.

[Mr Crunchy]

Curt Schilling > Jason Johnson and Kyle Snyder

hey

kilo and crunchy>johnson and snyder

 

never ever ever have we had enuff pitching

nobody does

lest anyone forget curtis leskanic pitched when the season was on the line for us in 04

[jacksonianmarch]

wasnt his shoulder being held on by duct tape and chicken wire at that point too?

[TheKilo]

wasnt his shoulder being held on by duct tape and chicken wire at that point too?

 

And yet...he still won game 4.

[Mr Crunchy]

my point with the leskanic reference is this

you may have a 250M payroll

but eventually your entire season will indeed lie in the arms of its weakest link so depth indeed matters

[example1]

The point is' date=' Schilling and Randy have seemed to mirror each other the past few yrs. Randy was solid one yr and abysmal the next. I think the sox want to avoid the abysmal yr that will come one day if Schill continues to pitch. The thing we will never know is if the abysmal yr is coming in 1, 2, 5 yrs from now.[/quote']

 

Who's talking about 5 years? I mean, come on. We're talking about one or two years. That's it. If the abysmal year comes this season then at worst its a bad 2 year deal for a 4-5 starter.

 

RJ and Schilling are different people. They are each deteriorating but RJ was much much worse last year than Schilling and lost his control. RJ's BABIP of .288 indicates a fair amount of luck in RJ's favor; Schilling's .328 indicates that hitters got more of the luck. These things tend to even out.

 

Thing is, the sox should snap him up if he does not leave a mid season signing open to the team. There would be too much to lose if he does come back strong and only a minimal gain if he leaves in the development of a hopefully healthy Jon Lester.

 

I agree. I don't see why he wouldn't be willing to deal with them half-way through the season, but if its that big a deal to him then offer him an incentive laden contract that is simple to achieve (i.e., 150+ IP and you get 13 m), to get some protection against injury, but get it done.

[TGov]

If they sign Schilling next year, what happens to Lester? unless Wake retires next year and that spot opens up for Lester, assuming he will be ready to start in the rotation next season...

 

Also what about Buchholz and Bowden, are they going to start in AAA in 08'?... or maybe MLB relief?

[jacksonianmarch]

Buchholz and Bowden will likely start in A+ ball with a ceiling of AA in 07. AAA in 08 if everything goes well and it would be best if they dont see the bigs until 2009.

 

Lester at this point is a HUGE ?. And even if he returns to health, his propensity to allow baserunners even at the lowest levels doesnt make it sound like he'll be a top level pitcher in the AL. His style is a lot more suited for the NL.

[ORS]

Buchholz and Bowden will likely start in A+ ball with a ceiling of AA in 07. AAA in 08 if everything goes well and it would be best if they dont see the bigs until 2009.

 

Lester at this point is a HUGE ?. And even if he returns to health, his propensity to allow baserunners even at the lowest levels doesnt make it sound like he'll be a top level pitcher in the AL. His style is a lot more suited for the NL.

What are you talking about? Lester's trend in WHIP, you know - baserunners, prior to last year was 1.38, 1.32, 1.15. Last year was the worst he's ever been. It was also the year where he got diagnosed with cancer, and he showed significantly less velocity than scouting reports touted (hint: It's easier to hit the ball, and the pitcher has to nibble more, when he can't throw it as hard). As long as he stays in remission, I expect his ability and maturation to make him a solid front of the rotation starter. That said, he needs all of this year and probably the begining of next to hone his game in AAA.

[jacksonianmarch]

Nobody really knows when the cancer started to affect his ability. His 1.4WHIP in AAA was enough to throw up some serious red flags on his reasoning for callup. He'll have to show he can stave off baserunners before he can make an impact.

[example1]

Nobody really knows when the cancer started to affect his ability. His 1.4WHIP in AAA was enough to throw up some serious red flags on his reasoning for callup. He'll have to show he can stave off baserunners before he can make an impact.

 

Damn Jacksonian, a dude gets cancer and you question whether it was the cancer or not that made him mediocre last season? Harsh.

 

As for Bowden and Buchholz, we're going to learn pretty quickly to stop referring to them as the same pitcher. Buchholz may start in AA Portland, whereas Bowden is most likely at A+. Buchholz has two years on Bowden, so whereas Buchholz might be up by 08 I wouldn't expect to see Bowden till 09.

[jacksonianmarch]

Damn Jacksonian, a dude gets cancer and you question whether it was the cancer or not that made him mediocre last season? Harsh.

 

As for Bowden and Buchholz, we're going to learn pretty quickly to stop referring to them as the same pitcher. Buchholz may start in AA Portland, whereas Bowden is most likely at A+. Buchholz has two years on Bowden, so whereas Buchholz might be up by 08 I wouldn't expect to see Bowden till 09.

 

I'll chalk his crappy MLB debut to the cancer. But his early season struggles in AAA are a big murky as far as this entire situation goes.

[example1]

Very uncharacteristic walk totals at the higher levels.

 

If that becomes a 3/1 K/BB then he'll be very tough. His AAA WHIP has everything to do with walks and little to do with being hit hard. Despite having "early season struggles" he still managed to have a 2.70 ERA in AAA, VERY good for a 22 year old.

 

I think the sox are right to have a lot of confidence that, once he's matured Lester can be a pitcher who keeps other teams off the board effectively a la pettitte in his prime.

[ORS]

Nobody really knows when the cancer started to affect his ability. His 1.4WHIP in AAA was enough to throw up some serious red flags on his reasoning for callup. He'll have to show he can stave off baserunners before he can make an impact.

The 1.4 is aggregate for his whole time in AAA which started off rocky. By the time he was called up, he was deserving and the Sox were in need of help. That was unquestionably the right move. You'll have show you can stave off your ignorance before you start making sense.

[jacksonianmarch]

His walk rate has never been very good in the minors. And to expect that his BAA will stay the same in the bigs is tough to say the least. He doesnt have the stuff of dominance if you know what I mean. He has a LONG way to go on that curveball, which he could not locate. And plus he is going to have a chore just to get back to the guy he was last yr after chemo. And the guy who took the mound last yr is not a successful pitcher. He will have to get back to last yrs level, go past that, then refine and retool his repertoire. It may take awhile if it happens at all. I am rooting for the kid, but he certainly did not look to be the ace that people were projecting him to be. He looked like a Ted Lilly clone.

[ksushi]

His rocky start in AAA was due to a 60 pitch limit imposed on him by the FO to keep him fresh if they needed him in the second half.

[ORS]

His walk rate has never been very good in the minors. And to expect that his BAA will stay the same in the bigs is tough to say the least. He doesnt have the stuff of dominance if you know what I mean. He has a LONG way to go on that curveball' date=' which he could not locate. And plus he is going to have a chore just to get back to the guy he was last yr after chemo. And the guy who took the mound last yr is not a successful pitcher. He will have to get back to last yrs level, go past that, then refine and retool his repertoire. It may take awhile if it happens at all. I am rooting for the kid, but he certainly did not look to be the ace that people were projecting him to be. He looked like a Ted Lilly clone.[/quote']

How do you know he doesn't have the stuff to dominate? You haven't seen him throw a baseball w/o cancer. Scouting reports for the last couple years touted his heat in the mid 90's. From his call-up I rarely saw him break 91. He gains his strength back, he gains his stuff back, and then he spends a year working on command. You have to remember something, based on tools, he was rated ahead of Papelbon last year, and Papelbon's stuff other than the splitter looked the same in '05 as it did in '06.

[jacksonianmarch]

We shall see guys. I am pulling for him. He'd be a fantastic example of what can be done to treat cancer. I just dont see him as the dominant force he was billed as, but he can prove me wrong. Time will tell.

[Mr Crunchy]

he showed a lot of poise out there

he battled and pitched well with guys on base but you had the feeling that all that tap dancing he did to get out of trouble would catch up to him

a season on the shelf wont hurt his arm strength

cancer will

so if he gets a clean bill of health he could be the missing lefty starter we need

[RobZombie]

I think that you are confusing the 06 Schilling to the 04, not even close and if he is a #3 or 4 starter those kind of starters don't make that kind of money.

 

Most of the Red Sox fans are players fan, i am a fan of the name in the front rather than the name on the back.

 

Scaffolds while I respect your opinion you are absolutely wrong on this issue. The fact is that #3-#4 starters do make that kind of money. You also have to guarantee them for several years. Is Schilling better than Gill Meche? How about Jason Marquis?

 

Schilling is also still even at age 41 likely a better pitcher than Tim Wakefield. If it came down to a choice between the two of them, I'd prefer Schilling. Its not even close.

 

Plus no one knows how Lester will recover from cancer if at all. If you sign Schilling, you don't have to force Lester in case he's not exactly brining it at the end of the year. If the Red Sox don't resign Schilling, the risk having to guarantee several years to a player who is at best Schilling's equal.

 

You also don't want to force feed Buchholtz to the majors in 08.

[Cityofchampions33]

Scaffolds while I respect your opinion you are absolutely wrong on this issue. The fact is that #3-#4 starters do make that kind of money. You also have to guarantee them for several years. Is Schilling better than Gill Meche? How about Jason Marquis?

 

Schilling is also still even at age 41 likely a better pitcher than Tim Wakefield. If it came down to a choice between the two of them, I'd prefer Schilling. Its not even close.

 

Plus no one knows how Lester will recover from cancer if at all. If you sign Schilling, you don't have to force Lester in case he's not exactly brining it at the end of the year. If the Red Sox don't resign Schilling, the risk having to guarantee several years to a player who is at best Schilling's equal.

 

You also don't want to force feed Buchholtz to the majors in 08.

 

I mean why wouldn't you re-sign Schilling? He wants a reasonable amount of money that some back-end starters get. It wouldn't be long-term. He can help take away the spot-light from Buchholz if we do bring him up, and mentor the young guns. He's still good (ERA under 4, was in top 5 of Ks, walks per nine) and doesn't need to be motivated to try his hardest, it's a no brainer for me.

[jacksonianmarch]

the question is, whether his end of season struggles are going to carry over or were they a result of fatigue. He had a very poor peripheral yr for him. The hit rate was bad, and when you have been well below a hit per inning for your career and all of a sudden around 40yrs old and post injury, you are well above a hit per inning, it tells you that the stuff is starting to fade. If the rumors of him being grossly out of shape are true, and he continues to decline, he will not be worth 13 mil. Not even close. This is the dilemma. And with Lester being slated for the 2008 rotation and Wakefield as consistently average as they come at a low price, you have to be prudent and see if Schilling is declining. Plus, if he proves he is healthy and the schill of old, Theo wont let him walk. If he doesnt prove that then theo would be smart by waiting.