Yankees and Red Sox come out on top of hot stove season

[elsrbueno]

Bueno

 

I agree, even if the Drew deal falls apart, the Sox have a serviceable option in WMP in the short term. As for the bullpen, one shouldn't overlook the lack of a closer even with their much improved starting rotation. If they don't have a reliable closer, the starters will get overworked in close games which could lead to problems late in the season. I don't think Epstein or Cashman are done yet this off-season.

 

Neither team is done, both have at least one order of business to take care of (the Yankees trading Johnson seems inevitable, and Drew to the Sox also seems inevitable).

 

That having been said, both teams are old or injury prone or both, so I imagine some contingencies being added over the next couple months.

 

I don't forsee any major deals on either side (aside from Johnson/Drew). Courting Clemens obviously but that probably won't happen until April or May anyway because he only wants to pitch half a season.

 

If anything, the Sox will break the prospect bank open to add a closer, but I'm not sold on Gonzalez or Cordero in the AL East.

[Fried Neckbones]

If anything' date=' the Sox will break the prospect bank open to add a closer, but I'm not sold on Gonzalez or Cordero in the AL East.[/quote']

 

It is looking to me like the closer is coming from within. I'm not sold on either one of those guys either (especially for what they will cost). As SCM33 said in another thread, just throw all the s*** at the wall and see what sticks. With as many arms as they have, at least one will stick and be a servicable closer. Who will that be? I have no idea. If I knew how to project success at the back end of the bullpen, I would quit my crappy job and get hired as a GM somewhere. That's the problem - projecting who is going to be a top tier closer going into a season is next to impossible. Outside of maybe a half a dozen guys, it seems like there are a new group of closers rising each year, and a group of closers from the year before who totally crap the bed. :dunno: They'll figure something out.

[jacksonianmarch]

most of those closers go from being solid setup men to being solid closers though. You rarely see a Huston Street scenario where the kid comes from the minors to the closer position directly.

 

Also, the big problem with finding a serviceable closer is that your 4th or 5th choice may be the best bet. How many games will you blow with your 1st, 2nd, 3rd get my drift. Last season, the sox got real lucky putting a power armed kid in the closers slot. But anyone who saw Paps pitch, knew he had the demeanor, the pedigree and the stuff to close. I dont see that out of any pitcher projected to the sox in 07. Cox may be the long term closer. Hansen may be the closer of the future too. Hell, MDC may be the closer this year. But none of them have the pedigree and the track record of success.

 

I think the sox will initially go with a veteran. But none of the vets in the pen thus far strike me as closer material. Timlin hasnt been a full time closer in years and he is undoubtedly declining, Donnelly is declining and has never closed full time, Okajima is not a closer, Romero is certainly not a closer, and anyone who watched Tavres pitch knows that Julian is not a closer either. You know what, interesting poll question is coming out of this. Stay tuned.

[riverside sluggers]

Somewhat relating to the Sox/Yankees article

 

rotoauthority.com

 

Best Starting Rotation In the AL

My projections award the best projected cumulative starter ERA in the AL for 2007 to...Boston at 3.86. The Evil Empire is second at 3.98. One caveat: overall these team ERAs look a tad low - usually a team or two is over 5. However, I do see some improvements on the way in KC and Tampa Bay, and they usually bring up the rear. And of course unexpected major injuries will cause some teams' ERAs to rise beyond my projections.

 

Boston and Baltimore rate as the best strikeout staffs, with Tampa Bay placing a surprising third. Scott Kazmir, Jason Hammel, and Edwin Jackson have above average K rates, and Jae Seo isn't enough to bring them down. Cleveland is projected to miss the fewest bats.

 

The Red Sox are also the toughest to hit, followed by the Angels. As expected, the Guardians have baseball's most hittable staff. Westbrook, Lee, Sowers, and Byrd need a strong defense behind them.

 

Cleveland also has the league's best control by far, balancing out the hits. I have them at 2.2 BB/9, followed by the White Sox and Yankees. The Orioles have the worst control, as Cabrera, Loewen, and Wright should have below average walk rates.

 

Best HR prevention goes to the Yankees, followed by the Orioles. The O's could be a nice surprise if Mazzone can coax better control out of his staff. A guy like Bedard certainly has the potential, and Loewen and Cabrera could figure it out too.

 

Team ERA

Boston- 3.86

New York- 3.98

Los Angeles- 4.03

Oakland- 4.06

Detroit- 4.10

Cleveland- 4.28

Chicago- 4.33

Seattle- 4.50

Minnesota- 4.52

Toronto- 4.54

Baltimore- 4.56

Texas- 4.73

Kansas City- 4.77

Tampa Bay- 4.94

[jacksonianmarch]

hell I'd take that!

[hoke3182]

Somewhat relating to the Sox/Yankees article

 

rotoauthority.com

That would be great hopefully the bullpen doesn't suck to much. I wonder where they rank in that

[jacksonianmarch]

If I had to rank the bullpens, the sox would be better than TB, and thats it. I think KC improved a bit and the sox pen is just abysmal.

[TheKilo]

If I had to rank the bullpens' date=' the sox would be better than TB, and thats it. I think KC improved a bit and the sox pen is just abysmal.[/quote']

 

SHUT THE f*** UP.

 

WE GET IT.

[riverside sluggers]

Roto's ERA predictions for the Sox & Yankees. No surprise he doesnt have Pavano listed

 

New York

Wang 3.88

Pettitte 3.69

Mussina 3.67

Igawa 4.97

Hughes 3.59

 

Boston

Matsuzaka 3.41

Beckett 3.97

Schilling 3.70

Wakefield 4.19

Papelbon 3.48

Lester 4.97

 

We're in for a good number of pitching duels if comparisons for both staffs come even close to panning out

[jacksonianmarch]

Wang's era will be lower.

Pettitte's era will be higher.

Mussina's seems about right, although I'd go a tick higher

Igawa's will be a bit lower

Hughes at 3.59 is, I dunno. I'd take it and love it, but we'll see.

Pavano's would be mid 4's if I had to guess.

 

I really think they gave the sox a ton of credit. Lesters would be lower, wake's is about right. I think the other 4 are getting way too much credit. In the AL East, a mid 3 era is CY.

[riverside sluggers]

True a mid 3's ERA is CY but only if it comes with a good number of wins. Example Roger Clemens' incredible 2005 season while just notching 13 wins because of the Astros' piss poor offense

[jacksonianmarch]

the offense will be there, especially if they land Helton. The only thing that will keep the sox starters from high win totals will be BS's.

[schillingouttheks]

Wait, what's this talk about Helton...?

[TheKilo]

Hughes and Papelbon's ERAs are a joke.

 

Matsuzaka will be around 4.00 IMO, and Schilling too,

 

I also think Wang will be around 4.20, same with Pettite.

[Rodney Harrison]

Isn't Helton under contract for the next five seasons?

[schillingouttheks]

Isn't Helton under contract for the next five seasons?

 

He might waive a no trade clause, supposedly, to come to Boston.

[Rodney Harrison]

He might waive a no trade clause' date=' supposedly, to come to Boston.[/quote']

So the Rockies are giving up on 2007 already...

[schillingouttheks]

Well, if they get Hansen and Delcarmen along with Bowden ... I don't see how they'd pass it up.

 

Also, haha why do you call yourself Rodney Harrison? Are you a Chargers fan and you like him still, or...?

[jacksonianmarch]

Hughes and Papelbon's ERAs are a joke.

 

Matsuzaka will be around 4.00 IMO, and Schilling too,

 

I also think Wang will be around 4.20, same with Pettite.

 

I agree with everything you say aside from Wang. His era will be sub 4.

[TheKilo]

I agree with everything you say aside from Wang. His era will be sub 4.

 

Unless he can cheat the system more than one season, you can't really say that.

[jacksonianmarch]

He doesnt "cheat a system". He has 330IP of baseball under his belt with a career era sub 4 as well as two solid playoff starts. He'll only get better or stay the same so long as he stays healthy.

[TheKilo]

He doesnt "cheat a system". He has 330IP of baseball under his belt with a career era sub 4 as well as two solid playoff starts. He'll only get better or stay the same so long as he stays healthy.

 

330 IP is not that much in the grand scheme of things.

 

If he shows he can do it for more than one season, then yeah, I'll believe it.

 

The peripheral #'s just aren't there. If he has such dynamic stuff, why doesn't he miss more bats.

 

One season is an accident....two is a trend IMO.

[jacksonianmarch]

He will. He doesnt fool anyone. This isnt mirrors or tricks. He throws a 95mph biting sinker 80% of the time, an inconsistent slider 15%, and a change that is for show about 5-6 times a game. You know what is coming. You just cannot hit it. He'll be fine assuming he stays healthy.

 

What you should be concerned with is what happens if he develops his other pitches. If he turns that slider into a great pitch, then he'll start K'ing a lot more.

[ksushi]

You can't say that just because a player has performed one way his whole career that he'll just stay that way. He strikes out no one. No one. That would concern me.

[jacksonianmarch]

You can't say that just because a player has performed one way his whole career that he'll just stay that way. He strikes out no one. No one. That would concern me.

 

it concerned me last yr. After his solid 120 inning rookie season, I thought he, Chacon and Small were flukes. Chacon and Small were. But Wang is strange. If you look at his numbers, his K rate doubles when he needs a K, his GB% rises significantly with a runner on 1b, and the XBH off him are mostly hit when nobody is on base. He has the second lowest P/IP in the game and one of the best GB%. You can say that is a fluke, but I have watched him for nearly all of his 330IP. He looks like he is trying to make the batter get himself out. He does not have a K pitchers mentality. That is why he lasts so long. If he tries for the K, his pitch count goes way up. And with his injury history and Torre's love for his bullpen, he'd be pulled regularly. Wang is strange, but he is no fluke. expect something similar to last yr.

[ksushi]

Your boundless optimism for every yankees player makes me nauseous sometimes.

[TheKilo]

srsly.

[a700hitter]

Your boundless optimism for every yankees player makes me nauseous sometimes.

I am optimistic about watching Ortiz face Wang again. I was at the stadium the day he hit launched a rocket that left the Stadium faster than it got to the plate.

[jacksonianmarch]

Your boundless optimism for every yankees player makes me nauseous sometimes.

 

I'm not optimistic about the entire team my friend. I still dont like our rotation come playoff time.

[TheKilo]

I'm not optimistic about the entire team my friend. I still dont like our rotation come playoff time.

 

Liar. You'd find some reason to suck their dicks.