To get a closer

[a700hitter]

I know nobody in their right mind wants to think about this on December 31st' date=' but what if those questions above become viable during the season? Snyder moves into the rotation? A weak Lester moves into the rotation? what does that force? More innings on the pen. This team is one that really needs to have a strong pen as the minor league options are not ready for bear and there are no options available to step in should someone go down for an extended period of time. This makes the pen that much more important and will make its weakness that much more glaring.[/quote']Three starters in their 20's. I'm not that worried about injuries although they can certainly happen, but 25 year olds have more pitches left in their arms than 35 year olds. Wakefield had a freaky injury, but knuckleballers don't usually suffer arm injuries. They will be able to build the pen as they go. Add another piece during ST and evaluate their needs as they move forward. They've built a solid starting rotation. The bullpen will be a work in progress. There is no concern about Papelbon being healed, because he never damaged his arm structurally. There was nothing that had to heal. His shoulder needs to be strengthened to prevent injury and I have am sure that he has been following an exercise program.

[Papelbon58]

Here is a question. What about Foulke? That flurry of reports that he was going to Cleveland went away and he has not signed. Do you think he may come back to Boston and give it another shot?

[jacksonianmarch]

Three starters in their 20's. I'm not that worried about injuries although they can certainly happen' date=' but 25 year olds have more pitches left in their arms than 35 year olds. Wakefield had a freaky injury, but knuckleballers don't usually suffer arm injuries. They will be able to build the pen as they go. Add another piece during ST and evaluate their needs as they move forward. They've built a solid starting rotation. The bullpen will be a work in progress. There is no concern about Papelbon being healed, because he never damaged his arm structurally. There was nothing that had to heal. His shoulder needs to be strengthened to prevent injury and I have am sure that he has been following an exercise program.[/quote']

 

these arent your garden variety kids. And btw, the younger pitchers are more prone to serious injuries. You see more TJ surgeries and shoulder surgeries in the younger crowd, while you see more back surgeries and muscle pulls in the older crowd. Also, the sox have a rotation that includes a guy who stayed healthy for a full season for the first time last season in 5 major league seasons and a kid who finished the season on the DL cause his shoulder transiently popped out of place. Both of those kids are in at the very least, not sure bets to stay healthy for the entire yr.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here is a question. What about Foulke? That flurry of reports that he was going to Cleveland went away and he has not signed. Do you think he may come back to Boston and give it another shot?

 

No, Foulke is taking a physical for Cleveland and then the rumors stopped. I think they found something on that physical.

[jacksonianmarch]

Three starters in their 20's. I'm not that worried about injuries although they can certainly happen' date=' but 25 year olds have more pitches left in their arms than 35 year olds. Wakefield had a freaky injury, but knuckleballers don't usually suffer arm injuries. They will be able to build the pen as they go. Add another piece during ST and evaluate their needs as they move forward. They've built a solid starting rotation. The bullpen will be a work in progress. There is no concern about Papelbon being healed, because he never damaged his arm structurally. There was nothing that had to heal. His shoulder needs to be strengthened to prevent injury and I have am sure that he has been following an exercise program.[/quote']

 

remember all the talks about pedro strengthening his shoulder through exercise? What did that get him? 5mph off his heat and a trip to the operating table. Shoulder strengthening exercises do not make the problem go away completely, they prolong the inevitable. Which is a worry for us yankee fans with our ace. One day, he will need that shoulder repaired. Here's to hoping it wont be for a long time.

[a700hitter]

these arent your garden variety kids. And btw' date=' the younger pitchers are more prone to serious injuries. You see more TJ surgeries and shoulder surgeries in the younger crowd, while you see more back surgeries and muscle pulls in the older crowd. Also, the sox have a rotation that includes a guy who stayed healthy for a full season for the first time last season in 5 major league seasons and a kid who finished the season on the DL cause his shoulder transiently popped out of place. Both of those kids are in at the very least, not sure bets to stay healthy for the entire yr.[/quote']Except for Papelbon, the other 2 20-somethings are veterans who know their bodies and their limitations. Beckett's injuries have been almost entirely blister-related. His one non-blister related injury was not serious. He returned that year and was throwing 97 in his last start, and he threw 200 innings for the first time last season. His health is not a concern. I'll stay with the 20 year olds and let Yankee fans worry about Moose's various aches and pains and inevitable break downs each season and Pettitte's elbow, and Unit's back and knees if he doesn't get traded.

[jacksonianmarch]

Except for Papelbon' date=' the other 2 20-somethings are veterans who know their bodies and their limitations. Beckett's injuries have been almost entirely blister-related. His one non-blister related injury was not serious. He returned that year and was throwing 97 in his last start, and he threw 200 innings for the first time last season. His health is not a concern. I'll stay with the 20 year olds and let Yankee fans worry about Moose's various aches and pains and inevitable break downs each season and Pettitte's elbow, and Unit's back and knees if he doesn't get traded.[/quote']

 

his "non-serious" blister problems landed him on the DL 5 times. That is serious enough for him to miss months of seasons. Plus, last yr was his FIRST SEASON OVER 200IP. The Yankees top 3 averaged over 200IP last season. (Top 4 if you consider Igawa's stats in Japan as far as durability). I'll take them this season right now. I wont deny the sox have a nice 3 corps of young pitchers for the long haul, but only one has shown he can stay healthy and pitch well as a starter and he didnt even do that in american baseball last yr.

[a700hitter]

remember all the talks about pedro strengthening his shoulder through exercise? What did that get him? 5mph off his heat and a trip to the operating table. Shoulder strengthening exercises do not make the problem go away completely' date=' they prolong the inevitable. Which is a worry for us yankee fans with our ace. One day, he will need that shoulder repaired. Here's to hoping it wont be for a long time.[/quote']Without the shoulder strengthening exercises, Pedro would have had a date with the surgeon after the 2001 season. Since that time he has been 74-33-- not too bad-- for a .691 winning %.

[jacksonianmarch]

Without the shoulder strengthening exercises' date=' Pedro would have had a date with the surgeon after the 2001 season. Since that time he has been 74-33-- not too bad-- for a .691 winning %.[/quote']

 

I completely agree. It delayed the inevitable, but the delay was nice.

[seabeachfred]

That's a lot of ifs Jackson but I suppose it could happen. The odds of four of those going lame is very very small, but I get your point. You must have a good bullpen to survive. Your Yankees are kind of weak down there, too, but they have Rivera and he can cover a lot of things because he is such a great pitcher and the Yankees score enough runs to cover for their middle relief. We might be now able to do that having added Lugo and Drew, but unless the FO has someone definately in mind for a closer from what we have, we had better not to try and win on the cheap. When Drew signs we will have an added chip to use in a trade. I also wonder when Lester will be able to go back to pitching competively, though his health must come first.

[seabeachfred]

Here is a question. What about Foulke? That flurry of reports that he was going to Cleveland went away and he has not signed. Do you think he may come back to Boston and give it another shot?

 

What about him Papelbon? The way I see it, he wanted out of Boston and that's why he turned down that 5Mil deal. Keith was sensational for us in 2004 and I will always be indebted to him for what he helped the Red Sox accomplish, but somewhere along the way he became very angry and bitter at the Red Sox and the community. I don't think he would want to return to Boston and I'm not sure the Red Sox want him back. I think it was time for him to move on.

[jacksonianmarch]

No, I am not saying that all 4 will go down. I am saying that if you get 4 question marks, chances are, one will go down. If one goes down, the sox have no contingency plan and the pen will be put under major burden, which is something I dont think they can handle.

[jacksonianmarch]

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=174781

 

Looks like the most significant talks outside the org have been about Chad Cordero. The Nats surprisingly dont want WMP. They are asking for Hansen, Bowden, and Buchholz. Sounds like the sox are balking at Buchholz. Maybe this is getting done?

[riverside sluggers]

Hansen, Bowden, and Bucholz is really too much. Now if they were to be able to swing a deal of Hansen, Bowden, substitue for Bucholz... Im all for it. My thinking is just because Bucholz right now has the most upside of the 3 B's, particularily why the Sox are "labeling" him untouchable

 

jacksonian why are you talking as if the Yankees are a step above the Sox in terms of healthy rotation?

 

-Wang has had previous bad experience with his shoulder. He's still a young kid, who's to say it wont crop up again?

-Mussina is another year older at 38

-Andy Pettitte, there should be concern about him

-Kei Igawa, like Matsuzaka there should be caution with him as the season goes along

 

5th starter

*Carl Pavano... enough said

*If somehow RJ isnt traded, you have a 43 year old coming off of major back surgery

*One of the kids (Karstens, Rasner, Hughes, Sanchez, AZ prospects) like you said could experience shoulder woes

*If Roger Clemens would be signed, there would be risk in adding a 44 year old who pitches like a dirt dog through injuries

[jacksonianmarch]

Riverside, I know there is a ton of peril in NY in that rotation. I think the Wang thing was overblown, and potentially was a misdiagnosis. He obviously didnt need surgery and last season was pretty durable. His style of pitching leaves me to believe that he'll be fine this season.

 

Mussina is always a minor worry. He never gets injured seriously enough for him to miss a large chunk of seasons, but he is always banged up at some point. Either way, he should be around 170IP which is what he has been at for a long time now.

 

Everyone talks about Pettitte as if he is some invalid with a ticking time bomb in his arm. Yet, he made the most starts in the majors last season and is coming off back to back 200IP seasons after having surgery in 04 after a freak BP accident.

 

Igawa is an unknown, yes, but his one MO is durability. 200IP average over the past 6 seasons. That is Zito-esque durability. He at least makes me comfortable in knowing he'll take the bump every 5th day, while his performance is certainly a major ??.

 

Pavano is the 5 for now. Clemens may be the 5 a month in, who knows.

 

Now, I think the sox rotation is a stellar rotation, if things break right it could be the best in baseball by a long shot, and if people stay healthy. The reason why I dont like the sox staff (pen included) is that there is no spot starter that inspires even a bit of confidence and there are no options in the minors labelled as MLB ready this season. Couple that with a bad pen (as of right now, I know) and you have a major fragility issue, especially when injury concerns can be placed on 4 of the 5 starters (5 of the 5 if you think Matsuzaka's workload may take a toll this season, which I dont believe in full). So who comes in should, for the sake of argument, Papelbon goes down with a shoulder issue and needs to miss a month. Gabbard? He lasted 5IP per start in his 4 spot starts, had a WHIP near 1.6, and walked 16 in 26IP (plus his minor league numbers show he is no control machine). He is an option albeit not a good one. Pauley was terrible sans his start in the Bronx. Abe Alvarez? Kyle Snyder? Lets not even discuss Lester until he shows he can perform and stay healthy, god willing. All are guys who will stay in for 5 at the most, and most likely will leave the sox with 4-5+ innings of pen work. When your pen is the weakness of your team and you really have no viable contingency plan, you are VERY succeptible to injury.

 

That is where the yankees have you over a barrell. Depth. They have 2 guys with solid minor league track records who came up last season and filled in very nicely when Mussina was out and Lidle was ineffective. If RJ is dealt, they will likely get 2 more MLB ready arms back. Add that to the 3 MLB ready arms in AAA, and you have a AAA rotation that includes 5 top 10 talents as well as 2 guys who spot starter very well last season.

 

The Yankees will have injuries. So will the sox. It happens every yr. Someone misses a month, a couple starts here or there. It happens to every team. I just feel that an injury to the yankee staff can be handled better than the sox staff due to depth and the fact that the yankee pen can be leaned on more heavily than the sox one can be.

 

The sox are putting all their eggs in this 5 man's basket. Should one of them go down, they are in big trouble.

[seabeachfred]

Riverside and Jackson, this thread is getting more entertaining by the minute and well it should. What else to we have to talk about right concerning our two teams but who will be able to make it through the season with medical assistance. Both teams have their share of worries. What the Yankees have, though, is Rivera as a closer. We have nothing even remotely resembling one right now. The Red Sox, on the other hand, seem to have a stronger rotation--right now. Too early to really have a solid take of how things are going to go. We get Drew signed and trade for a closer, I will more than happy to take my chances with the Red Sox this coming year.

[seabeachfred]

http://redsox.bostonherald.com/redSox/view.bg?articleid=174781

 

Looks like the most significant talks outside the org have been about Chad Cordero. The Nats surprisingly dont want WMP. They are asking for Hansen, Bowden, and Buchholz. Sounds like the sox are balking at Buchholz. Maybe this is getting done?

 

Bucholz is off limits Jackson. That is, if the Red Sox are smart. The guy is supposed to be something really special, has all the pitches, is a competitive animal and is on the fast track to the Bigs. I'm surprised that the Nats don't want Pena. Bowden is supposed to have been a big fan of his; then again, I could understand it in light of how lousy Wily Mo is in the outfield and that strikeout machine that he is whenever he sees a breaking pitch. I'm surprised we haven't talked to Oakland, though. They have a plethora of good pitching and could use another hitter or two. They have a good closer and two more who could close. We might want to look there.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am not necessarily sure why Buchholz is off-limits and he is actually not on the fast track per se. The guy is a college grad in 05, so you would assume that a guy on the fasttrack would have started his first full season in the minors at A+ or higher. Instead, he spent nearly the entire yr at Greenville and only 3 starts in Wilmington. Chances are, he spend the year between Greenville and Portland next yr. Portland and maybe Pawtucket in 08 and then maybe he is a mid season callup in 09. That is if everything breaks right. He still hasnt passed the biggest test of the minors (AA) and wont even start there.

 

Yeah, the kid may have great stuff and yeah he has had success thus far, but the lower levels of the minors are very pitcher friendly. Now granted, throwing Hansen, Buchholz and Bowden at them is too much IMO, the big problem is, none of them are guys who will hit the majors in the next 2 years. Therefore, they have little worth. Once Buchholz gets past AA, his stock will jump. BUT, if Washington loves him, then subtract Bowden and make the deal. It isnt like you are getting a 40yr old one season rental. Cordero is one of the best young closers in the game, and he is only 3 yrs older than Buchholz.

[example1]

No way do they give up Hansen, Bowden and Buchholz for Cordero. Sorry. That's just a f***ing stupid idea and I don't see any way they do it. period.

 

They're going to trade essentially 3 first round picks (2 supplemental) from the 2005 draft for a 1st round pick from 2003. A pick who plays the most over valued, swollen position in baseball? Remember how Billy Beane would throw guys into closing situations to get them saves, then sell them to teams that overvalue closing? That's what this would be. You don't trade a potential closer and two potential #2/#3 pitchers for a guy who can get some Sv. next to his name.

[example1]

I am not necessarily sure why Buchholz is off-limits and he is actually not on the fast track per se. The guy is a college grad in 05, so you would assume that a guy on the fasttrack would have started his first full season in the minors at A+ or higher. Instead, he spent nearly the entire yr at Greenville and only 3 starts in Wilmington. Chances are, he spend the year between Greenville and Portland next yr. Portland and maybe Pawtucket in 08 and then maybe he is a mid season callup in 09. That is if everything breaks right. He still hasnt passed the biggest test of the minors (AA) and wont even start there.

 

Yeah, the kid may have great stuff and yeah he has had success thus far, but the lower levels of the minors are very pitcher friendly. Now granted, throwing Hansen, Buchholz and Bowden at them is too much IMO, the big problem is, none of them are guys who will hit the majors in the next 2 years. Therefore, they have little worth. Once Buchholz gets past AA, his stock will jump. BUT, if Washington loves him, then subtract Bowden and make the deal. It isnt like you are getting a 40yr old one season rental. Cordero is one of the best young closers in the game, and he is only 3 yrs older than Buchholz.

 

So would you trade Humberto Sanchez, Tyler Clippard and Kyle Farnsworth for Chad Cordero?

 

I wouldn't either.

[hoke3182]

if they want cordero they have to part with some talent. i agree that its to much but cordero is a proven pitcher in the bigs. none of them are

[a700hitter]

So would you trade Humberto Sanchez, Tyler Clippard and Kyle Farnsworth for Chad Cordero?

 

I wouldn't either.

I would if for no other reason than to unburden the team of Farnsworthless's contract.

[example1]

if they want cordero they have to part with some talent. i agree that its to much but cordero is a proven pitcher in the bigs. none of them are

 

 

So what? The point is not to get a proven MLB pitcher but to get the best pitchers for the long haul.

 

Would you rather have Papelbon close, say, 2/3 of the games that a regular closer would (say they're trying to save his arm) and supplement him with Timlin, Okajima, Hansen, Delcarmen, Donneley and Romero picking up the slack, or would you trade our top two SP prospects and a guy who the Diamondbacks almost took #1 overall a few years back for a guy who has experience closing?

 

Remember guys, Cordero IS MLB talent at this point because, for lack of a better phrase, the Nationals suck. If he were in the Sox organization or Yankees organization he would have spent more time in the minors and wouldn't be seen as the 'savior' that some see him as. The do sox need the help in the bullpen, but they tend to take players through the system more slowly as well, so beware to those who value him based on his MiLB placement.

 

 

I guess I'm largely against it, not because of Buchholz, but because of Bowden who has intregued me since they drafted him. I think he has the potential to be a top of the rotation, Jason Schmidt type (my comparison, but I think its somewhat valid). The kid is only 20 years old (at the most) and he's a bulldog with lots of developed pitches. If they trade Bowden AND Buchholz I will lose faith. that faith my be rebulstered by the fact that the Sox could be annual competetors for a WS crown, but I like SP.

[a700hitter]

So what? The point is not to get a proven MLB pitcher but to get the best pitchers for the long haul.

 

Would you rather have Papelbon close, say, 2/3 of the games that a regular closer would (say they're trying to save his arm) and supplement him with Timlin, Okajima, Hansen, Delcarmen, Donneley and Romero picking up the slack, or would you trade our top two SP prospects and a guy who the Diamondbacks almost took #1 overall a few years back for a guy who has experience closing?

 

Remember guys, Cordero IS MLB talent at this point because, for lack of a better phrase, the Nationals suck. If he were in the Sox organization or Yankees organization he would have spent more time in the minors and wouldn't be seen as the 'savior' that some see him as. The do sox need the help in the bullpen, but they tend to take players through the system more slowly as well, so beware to those who value him based on his MiLB placement.

 

 

I guess I'm largely against it, not because of Buchholz, but because of Bowden who has intregued me since they drafted him. I think he has the potential to be a top of the rotation, Jason Schmidt type (my comparison, but I think its somewhat valid). The kid is only 20 years old (at the most) and he's a bulldog with lots of developed pitches. If they trade Bowden AND Buchholz I will lose faith. that faith my be rebulstered by the fact that the Sox could be annual competetors for a WS crown, but I like SP.

Cordero is not only a major league proven player, but he is very good and he has had a lot of success at a very young age.

[ORS]

I don't like the idea of moving any young pitching prospects for Cordero. I think he's vastly overrated and would tank hard in the AL East.

[example1]

I don't like the idea of moving any young pitching prospects for Cordero. I think he's vastly overrated and would tank hard in the AL East.

 

Same here man. As far as probabilities go, I'd rather have three guys who all have tremendous upside than one guy with tremendous upside. With injuries and sudden changes in effectiveness (a la Keith Foulke or Brad Lidge) I'd rather have 3 shots at success than 1. Now, when you're converting position players to closers via trade then I think about it differently. Would I think about moving Coco Crisp for Cordero? yeah, probably, but pitching is invaluable.

 

Basically, the Sox worked very, very hard to acquire all these draft picks. They're not going to send three of them for one player of questionable value.

[example1]

Does the 13 HRs he gave up last year in 73 IP concern anyone? Curious...

 

Cordero has thrown about 1200 pitches each of the last two years. Assuming he stays at about that rate and we had him for say 5 years: are 6000 Chad Cordero pitches worth all of the pitches in the careers of Buchholz, Bowden and Hansen?

 

Given that each of them will very likely end up throwing AT LEAST that many in the majors every season I don't see how it could be, but that's just me. Does that make sense?

[a700hitter]

Same here man. As far as probabilities go, I'd rather have three guys who all have tremendous upside than one guy with tremendous upside. With injuries and sudden changes in effectiveness (a la Keith Foulke or Brad Lidge) I'd rather have 3 shots at success than 1. Now, when you're converting position players to closers via trade then I think about it differently. Would I think about moving Coco Crisp for Cordero? yeah, probably, but pitching is invaluable.

 

Basically, the Sox worked very, very hard to acquire all these draft picks. They're not going to send three of them for one player of questionable value.

The upside potential of our prospects is that they will someday hold down a rotation spot in the major leagues. Cordero is a proven good major league closer-- that is not his upside potential. That already is. His upside potential is that he will regularly make All Star teams and win relief awards. If the FO decides to give up the potential for the proven quantity, I am not going to complain. It's their job to know which players will make it and which will fall by the wayside. Most of them fall by the wayside.

[TheKilo]

The upside potential of our prospects is that they will someday hold down a rotation spot in the major leagues. Cordero is a proven good major league closer-- that is not his upside potential. That already is. His upside potential is that he will regularly make All Star teams and win relief awards. If the FO decides to give up the potential for the proven quantity' date=' I am not going to complain. It's their job to know which players will make it and which will fall by the wayside. Most of them fall by the wayside.[/quote']

 

 

You'd spend those prospects on a guy whose HR rate has increased evey year in an extreme pitcher's park? You think those numbers will translate well to the AL East?

 

I understand the point of developing young prospects is to go after young, proven talent, but Cordero's numbers really worry me and going after him for that price can only be viewed as a mistake.

[riverside sluggers]

The upside potential of our prospects is that they will someday hold down a rotation spot in the major leagues. Cordero is a proven good major league closer-- that is not his upside potential. That already is. His upside potential is that he will regularly make All Star teams and win relief awards. If the FO decides to give up the potential for the proven quantity' date=' I am not going to complain. It's their job to know which players will make it and which will fall by the wayside. Most of them fall by the wayside.[/quote']

 

So the Sox should just trade their 3 top pitching prospects (2 top starters) for him? Our once strong farm system will become even more depleted than ever in just over a year's time