Other options besides JD?

[TedWilliams101]

ignorant fool...

[BSN07]

TED I must apologize, I saw your post and thought it was directed at me and cussed you under my breath!LOL Then I went back a page and saw what tool boy wrote after me.

 

 

who cares about melky' date=' jeter, torre and every other yankee.they are all pu$$y$[/quote']

 

He must have been thinking that one up all day.

[jacksonianmarch]

find me a player in the majors who started off his career in the minors as an impatient hitter, had a breakthrough season of patience in the majors and then declined back to being completely impatient the yr after that. You can't. Your point is essentially just bias based without any factual comparisons.

[TheKilo]

find me a player in the majors who started off his career in the minors as an impatient hitter' date=' had a breakthrough season of patience in the majors and then declined back to being completely impatient the yr after that. You can't. Your point is essentially just bias based without any factual comparisons.[/quote']

 

 

Oh my f***ing god. Take off the Yankee glasses for one second. Please.

 

ORS is saying his trend is that he in an impatient hitter. He used stats (IsoD) to make his claim. He's saying that those people who walk over 50 times in a season do so because it is their game instead of a fluke. They walk 50+ times most every year.

 

Melky Cabrera, in his years of minor league baseball, has not done that. How can you base what those people have done, in years of MLB service time, to Melky, who has had one year of service time? If Melky can show his plate discipline again this year, then yes nit can be looked at as a trend. If not, then what do you say? The fact that he has not had the statistics of a patient hitter who draws a lot of walks means you cannot really say he is one yet.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am not denying that last season was his first one that he showed patience. That is not the issue. The issue is, that in 560PAs last season, he walked 57 times. At 21 yrs old. 21 yr old players typically are still very wild and free swinging. Most players garner control of the strike zone as they age. Most players who improve on patience do not regress in this area. If your argument is that he wont hit .280 again, I'd disagree, but we would both have grounds to be right. There are no instances that you can give me where you have a rookie player show a dramatic increase in patience and then fall back to baseline. There arent any. Control of your strike zone is something that isnt lost easily.

[TheKilo]

I am not denying that last season was his first one that he showed patience. That is not the issue. The issue is' date=' that in 560PAs last season, he walked 57 times. At 21 yrs old. 21 yr old players typically are still very wild and free swinging. Most players garner control of the strike zone as they age. Most players who improve on patience do not regress in this area. If your argument is that he wont hit .280 again, I'd disagree, but we would both have grounds to be right. There are no instances that you can give me where you have a rookie player show a dramatic increase in patience and then fall back to baseline. There arent any. Control of your strike zone is something that isnt lost easily.[/quote']

 

So you admit him walking so much last year, as it stands right now, is an anamoly?

[jacksonianmarch]

So you admit him walking so much last year' date=' as it stands right now, is an anamoly?[/quote']

 

I admit that it is an increase from his baseline. That hasnt been what I was arguing. My point is that most players do not regress in this stat once they show improved patience. Most players will build on this stat. This cannot be said for average or HRs as these could be very fluctuating, but patience is a rather stable stat to build on.

[seabeachfred]

Word.

 

I say they sign Floyd.

 

Sorry Soxfan but that crow will not fly. Floyd was with Boston once before and he stunk to high heaven, was booed unmercifully my the fans and left in a bitter state. We went through the recycle business with Seanez last season and I think we learned that return engagements hardly ever work. Besides, I hear the Cubs might sign him. As for Pena, again, no way. I don't know how to simplify this but he cannot play right field at Fenway. He also has trouble tracking fly balls. He is not an option unless we want to read about him costing us games with his shoddy fielding and his huge strikeout totals. We have to get the Drew thing settled. I suppose Huff would be a good option but I would still stick with getting JD signed.

[TheKilo]

I admit that it is an increase from his baseline. That hasnt been what I was arguing. My point is that most players do not regress in this stat once they show improved patience. Most players will build on this stat. This cannot be said for average or HRs as these could be very fluctuating' date=' but patience is a rather stable stat to build on.[/quote']

 

 

My point has been hold off on calling it a habit when it's only happened once.

 

What happens if his walk rates drop this year? Does that mean he's lost plate discipline?

[ORS]

I admit that it is an increase from his baseline. That hasnt been what I was arguing. My point is that most players do not regress in this stat once they show improved patience. Most players will build on this stat. This cannot be said for average or HRs as these could be very fluctuating' date=' but patience is a rather stable stat to build on.[/quote']

That's a bunch of bunk. Go to thebaseballcube.com and look up a couple of dozen players. Their IsoD from MiLB will be in strong agreement with their IsoD from MLB. They had it when they were young, they have it when they are older.

[jacksonianmarch]

no it is not a bunch of bunk my friend. I have already looked up many players. Most improved their BB% as they aged.

[ORS]

You didn't look crap up. I just looked at over 30 players at random and every one but one had an IsoD in MLB within .015 of their IsoD in MiLB. The lone exception was Barry Bonds who put up ungodly IsoD rates from 2000-2006.

[jacksonianmarch]

so you want me to retort against your anecdotal evidence with more anecdotal evidence? Who is throwing the bunk around again?

[ORS]

No, I want to stop pulling stuff directly from your backside. A great majority of baseball players demonstrate similar patience levels throughout their entire career. I expect Melky Cabrera, like I will expect of every other player, to fit the model the trends suggest. Until he proves he can do otherwise, ie continue the anomaly, he's not getting a free pass, no pun intended, from me.

[jacksonianmarch]

what you arent incorporating is the variation as one ages. It peaks as you get towards your prime and then falls as you go over the hill. Most of the time, the best minor league IsoP numbers come right before coming up to the majors. In Melky's case, he was rushed due to necessity and his final season, the one that would make your IsoP case prudent, if it were in the MiLB, you would have your point. Take a look at a few of these players.

 

Carlos Beltran's IsoP

1995 .054

1996 .083

1997 .082

1998 .073

1999 .044 first season in the majors

2000 .062

2001 .056

2002 .073

2003 .082

2004 .100

2005 .064

2006 .113

 

look at the fluctuations in the minors, from .050 to .080 in one season. What would happen if he was in the majors after that first season? Obviously, Cabrera has a little more minor league experience than one season, but the fluctuations above show that both of us could be right, depending on where in the career you want to sample.

 

Here is another guy

 

Felipe Lopez

1998 .018

1999 .074

2000 .046

2001 .057

2002 .076

2003 .080

2004 .061

2005 .061 first full yr in the majors

2006 .085

 

look at these numbers. Lets assume that he was called up after 2001 and that was his IsoP? We would be in the exact same boat as Cabrera was in. My point is, the guy was called up too early. He came up and had an up to this point career IsoP year. If this .080 IsoP year was in AAA, we would all be talking about a guy who is an up and comer.

[jacksonianmarch]

oh and another guy that fit around your guidelines in Richie Sexson.

Career MiLB IsoP .063

Career MLB IsoP .081

 

as a matter of fact, look at his overalls.

 

1994 .065

1995 .062

1996 .055

1997 .047

1998 .068

1999 .050 1st full season in MLB

2000 .072

2001 .071

2002 .084

2003 .107

2004 .104

2005 .106

2006 .074

 

looks pretty similar to everything you are trying to disprove. Starts off a free swinger and matures into a solid IsoP guy.

[ORS]

Looks like both guys settle in at IsoD trends of about .070. Yes, there will be variation. Some will be higher, some will be lower. Melky ranged from .047 to .062 at his different stops in the minors. His .080 last year looks like a fluke at this point.

[jacksonianmarch]

Looks like both guys settle in at IsoD trends of about .070. Yes' date=' there will be variation. Some will be higher, some will be lower. Melky ranged from .047 to .062 at his different stops in the minors. His .080 last year looks like a fluke at this point.[/quote']

 

and I will respectfully agree to disagree with you kind sir.

[jacksonianmarch]

One thing I will say, though, is that you hardly see someone have a statistically significant SOLID IsoP in the minors and then not continue it in the bigs over the long haul. Just took a peek at Pedroia's stats. His power is very suspect, but that OBP is pretty good. .084 in 2 MiLB seasons will translate into something very nice for the sox, so long as they dont expect the mini-midget to crank 20HRs.

[Mr Crunchy]

i played hard ball for 10 years and drunk league softball for 10 more and i still havent decephired what VORP is

[jacksonianmarch]

me neither. I just learned what IsoP was recently. I still like the OBP, SLG, RBI, R, and the rest of the traditional stats.

[ORS]

[noparse]You know how often times people will say, "Hey those numbers aren't spectacular, but they are really good for a player at that position (SS, C, 2B)". Well, VORP is just a way of putting every position on even footing.

 

What it stands for is Value Over Replacement Player. A replacement player is considered to be bench level performance. They have looked back at decades of data and determined what type of performance the typical bench/MiLB player provides (something like 75% of league average for that position). They take the runs created by a player over a season and subtract the replacment level performance from that. This is a player's VORP.

 

It is important to note that VORP only considers offensive contribution.[/noparse]

[SuperManny]

me neither. I just learned what IsoP was recently. I still like the OBP' date=' SLG, RBI, R, and the rest of the traditional stats.[/quote']

 

RBI's and R aren't that big of a stat IMO. Ortiz had more HR's and a higher OPS in 06 than in 05 and yet ended up with less RBIs. Why is that? Because the hitters before him weren't getting on base as much as the previous year. R is a good team stat but not an individual stat because if you get a single then if you score is determined by your teammate so it doesn't have much bearing on the value of a player IMO.

 

I'm a big fan of VORP, and OPS because they give a better picture if your just looking at one stat.

[jacksonianmarch]

RBI's and R aren't that big of a stat IMO. Ortiz had more HR's and a higher OPS in 06 than in 05 and yet ended up with less RBIs. Why is that? Because the hitters before him weren't getting on base as much as the previous year. R is a good team stat but not an individual stat because if you get a single then if you score is determined by your teammate so it doesn't have much bearing on the value of a player IMO.

 

I'm a big fan of VORP, and OPS because they give a better picture if your just looking at one stat.

 

or it could be he missed some time too. The fact is, I know they are team dependent stats, and everything. But they are the most important stats, as games are won by who has the most runs, not the higest VORP.

[SuperManny]

or it could be he missed some time too. The fact is' date=' I know they are team dependent stats, and everything. But they are the most important stats, as games are won by who has the most runs, not the higest VORP.[/quote']

 

Yes but its just like giving the W to the pitcher who pitches 5 innings and gives up 7 runs but his team scores 10. The pitcher gets the W sometimes even when they do nothing to earn it. RBI's is similar but at least its something that the player can control unlike the R stat. If a runner is on base and doesn't score because the next guy K's is that his fault that the next guy couldn't get it done?

 

Position in the lineup greatly effects it as well since hitting in front of Ortiz and Manny will lead to many R's even if you suck at getting on base because they are great hitters with power.

[ORS]

or it could be he missed some time too. The fact is' date=' I know they are team dependent stats, and everything. But they are the most important stats, as games are won by who has the most runs, not the higest VORP.[/quote']

What are we trying to see with stats? Who had the better year? If that is the case, then the traditional stats are important, IMO. What if we are trying to forecast future value though? I want to know how good a player is independent of his teammates.

[BSN07]

s*** I don't know what IMO, Vorp,Winshares and all the new stuff is. I'm still trying to learn. I just know figured what OPS is LOL. Someone should make a thread explaining all the newer stats figures and how to get them( formulas). That be awesome, I hope someone takes up this challenge, kind of a "Baseball's new stats for dummies". Thanks in advance to anyone who does par take in this Mission.

 

 

Hey Jacko, I think it is easy to see why Melky's patience was better this year, look at the lineup he was in, barely any pressure on him, all he was told was to make sure to get on base so the big boys can knock him in. I don't need any stats to tell me thats what he was thinking. Sure he took his chances on pitches, but he rarely chased outside the zone because his job was to get on base not to hit doubles or homers.

[jacksonianmarch]

s*** I don't know what IMO, Vorp,Winshares and all the new stuff is. I'm still trying to learn. I just know figured what OPS is LOL. Someone should make a thread explaining all the newer stats figures and how to get them( formulas). That be awesome, I hope someone takes up this challenge, kind of a "Baseball's new stats for dummies". Thanks in advance to anyone who does par take in this Mission.

 

 

Hey Jacko, I think it is easy to see why Melky's patience was better this year, look at the lineup he was in, barely any pressure on him, all he was told was to make sure to get on base so the big boys can knock him in. I don't need any stats to tell me thats what he was thinking. Sure he took his chances on pitches, but he rarely chased outside the zone because his job was to get on base not to hit doubles or homers.

 

I dont get that logic though. If he is in a great lineup, you would think that he would be targetted as the sole weak link, hence they pitched to him. Plus, if he rarely chased balls outside the zone, you would think that he should get praise for his high OBP skills rather than calling them a fluke. Whether a guy is going for the HR or a double or whathaveyou, not chasing pitches is not chasing pitches. If you are saying it is an organizational philosophy, then he is following it to a T, kinda like Youkilis.

[ORS]

s*** I don't know what IMO' date=' Vorp,Winshares and all the new stuff is. I'm still trying to learn. I just know figured what OPS is LOL. Someone should make a thread explaining all the newer stats figures and how to get them( formulas). That be awesome, I hope someone takes up this challenge, kind of a "Baseball's new stats for dummies". Thanks in advance to anyone who does par take in this Mission.[/quote']

Baseball Terms & Definitions @ Talksox.com

[BSN07]

I'm just saying pressure will change a hitter. Wait to judge Melky when hes not surrounded by Damon,Giambi,Matsui,Jeter,Arod,Canu,Abreu. See what he puts up for numbers when he is relyed on to produce not to get on and get knocked in.

 

 

Your the man ORS!:thumbsup: