Yankees lineup

[jacksonianmarch]

We have seen the predictions abounding out of the sox forum about predictions and how they are going to be. Well, the Yankees lineup is rather stable from last yr minus one piece and looks to be the best lineup in baseball by far. Here goes

 

1. Damon CF. Johnny was pretty banged up by the end of the season. He had a broken foot and a shoulder problem which caused him to slip a little after the AS break. One thing he showed last yr was very surprising power and an increase in his walk totals. But to a detriment, his contact went down as did his BA. Overall, he posted his 2nd highest OPS since he left KC. As far as a prediction, I think his power totals were a bit of a career yr for him and will likely drop. At the same time, I think his lower BA is something that will climb as well. His walk totals and K totals tells me that he became more patient in the lineup. I could see a .300 15HR 80RBI season out of Damon this season with 120 runs scored and an OPS in the similar .840-.850 range. He stole 25 bases last yr and there should be no reason why he doesnt eclipse 20 this season.

 

2. Jeter SS. The guy should have won the MVP last season. Stellar, stellar year, hitting over .340 and having 97RBI. I dont see him having another .340 season, but a .320 season is well within his grasp. He stole 34 bases last yr as well, which was a career high. For all of the great things he did last yr, his HR power was down a bit, while his SLG was up due to a plethora of doubles. Overall, the guy is a god. My prediction is that he goes

.320 18HR 90RBI 120R 30SB and another GG that he doesnt deserve (although I dont buy the whole he is a poor fielder argument, I dont think he is better than Betancourt).

 

3. Abreu RF was obviously energized in his travel to NY. In just 209 ABs in NY, he hit .330 7HR 42RBI with a .419OBP and a .926OPS. While I do not expect him to hit .330 (something he has done over a full season just once in his career) you can expect this guy to surpass .300. Also, last season he hit 8HRs in 330ABs in Philly, then came to NY and enjoyed 7HR in 209ABs. In watching him, he loves the short right centerfield alley and should return to 20+ HR prowess. He stole 30 bases last yr as well, and should fit into Torre's like for the running game (although sometimes Torre runs at inopportune times). Overall, I see a dip in his BA from his NYY numbers, but an increase in his BB totals (he only walked 33 times in NY compared to a whopping 91 times in Philly).

.300 25HR 110RBI 110R 130BB .430OBP .930OPS 30SB season is well within reach for Bobby.

 

4. ARod 3B. I dislike this guy as a person, but you know what they say, root for the uniform. This fake ass will likely rebound from a poor season like he did after his poor first season in the Bronx. He hasnt had back to back sub 40HR seasons since 97, and I dont think that will fly either. Overall, ARod running game dropped a bit, only stealing 15bases last yr, which I attribute to him getting a little heavier. It is kinda funny though, he has a bad yr and it is .290 35HR 121RBI, maybe our expectations of him are high, but whatever. I expect a meaningless MVP award sitting in his locker next season as well as throngs of fans wanting to cut his balls off when he doesnt get the game winning hits or even make contact in key spots.

.310 45HR 135RBI 1.015OPS 10SB 120R and a BAw/RISP of .200.

 

5. Giambi DH. Last season was like the tale of two seasons for Giambroids. He was at a 1.026OPS at the AS break, but a wrist ligament tear sapped his power (either that or a lag in the supply of andro). At the time he was on pace for a career high in HR with well over 40, likely 48, but the injury hampered him (which was injured in the field by the way). The wrist is fixed, he should be healthy and should get more mileage out of being a full time DH rather than a s***** ass 1b. The average wont rise much, as he was at .260 while fully healthy, but his BB totals are insane and I expect the HR totals to rise. His RBI totals should rise with a full season of abreu hitting 2 spots above him. Overall.

.260 45HR 120RBI 95R .440OBP 1.000OPS

 

6. Matsui LF This lineup is a bitch, aint it? Matsui came back from a pretty serious wrist injury to show no ill effects. As a matter of fact, he came back from injury and hit .412 in september. This guy is really good. Typically VERY durable (remember the streak that ended with that freak injury). He was on pace to essentially be his normal self last season when he was injured.

He should easily hit .300 25HR 110RBI 100R .900OPS

 

7. Posada C Solid season out of Posada. Dont see it happening again. Last season, he hit .277 23HR 93RBI with an .866OPS. This after declining for 2 consecutive yrs. I dont see a drop below an .800OPS, but for a 35yr old catcher with tons of mileage, he will likely see some sort of dropoff. I'd say .265 20HR 80RBI with a .365OBP and a .810OPS.

 

8. Robinson Cano 2B. I love this kid. What a frickin hitter. He hit .342 with 41 doubles last season, while missing 6 weeks with a hammy injury. He just turned 24 and had a season like no yankee second baseman since Randolph. He never walks, but almost never K's either. He has shown impressive power to all fields and should improve on that aspect if he stays healthy. I think the average drops a bit, but he is starting to grow into his body a bit and the power should rise.

.330 25HR 90RBI .900OPS 42 doubles.

 

9. Doug Mientkiewicz 1B. I really think this gets done. Minky will give the yankees solid defense at first, which is a high priority with 2 GB pitcher in the rotation. Prior to injury last season, he was hitting .283 with a .359OBP. Assuming he is healthy, he should be a little below that. I think he'll likely hit .275 with a .350OBP and 10HR, but play spectacular defense.

 

So overall. Damon will drop his HR total, but raise the average. Jeter will drop the average and increase the HR total. Abreu will drop the average but increase the HR total in the new park. ARod will increase across the board to rebound, but still be gutless. Giambi will continue what he was pre AS break, pre injury. Matsui will be Matsui. Posada will have a decline in all fields. Cano will decrease AVG but hit for a little more power. Mientkiewicz will decline in all fields, except for defense.

[Cocos Disciples]

6 of 9 guys hit over .300...a .295 team average.

 

228 homers just in the lineup.

 

Wowza...

[jacksonianmarch]

6 of 9 guys hit over .300...a .295 team average.

 

228 homers just in the lineup.

 

Wowza...

 

The Yankees had a .285 average last season while having Melky, Bernie, Guiel, et al in the lineup. Last season, the yankees had 4 guys over .300 in Jeter, Bobby, Cano, and Matsui. Considering their histories, ARod or Damon going over .300 is no shock. Obviously somebody will get hurt, obviously somebody will have a down yr. My prediction for down yr is Posada. And otherwise, I am predicting no career yrs among the group.

[ORS]

815 RBIs from 1-8. f***ing hilarious.

[Cocos Disciples]

The "downyear" for Posada is 10 points lower on the AVG and OPS and 3 less homers...that doesn't really count as a down year. You're basically putting everyone at their ceiling. It will not be as good as this.

[jacksonianmarch]

Last season's lineup.

 

Damon 80RBI

Jeter 97RBI

Abreu 107RBI (split time in Philly)

Rodriguez 121RBI

Giambi 113RBI with torn wrist ligament

Matsui 29RBI while injured but averaged 110RBI in his first 3 seasons

Posada 93RBI

Cano 78RBI while missing 6 weeks

 

those 8 right there had 718RBI last season. Factor in Matsui's injury (which cost him 81RBI compared to average), Bobby spending an entire yr in the lineup, Giambi's injury, and a likely ARod rebound (when the time is meaningless) then 815 is well within reach.

[jacksonianmarch]

The "downyear" for Posada is 10 points lower on the AVG and OPS and 3 less homers...that doesn't really count as a down year. You're basically putting everyone at their ceiling. It will not be as good as this.

 

I am actually putting everyone rather close to last yrs production.

[Cocos Disciples]

Then why make a prediction? If you're just repeating last years results, but minus the injuries...why make a prediction. Just copy everyone who was healthy's 2006 stats, and everyone who was injured's career averages....it's pointless.

[jacksonianmarch]

everyone in the lineup has a precedent. It isnt like everyone in the lineup is a second yr player. I am going off precedent here. From there, I take last yr's numbers and see which trends look to be career blips vs consistent average. That is where the variations come in.

[DUSTINMOHR4LIFE]

Cano will not hit .330 again. It's common sense: A player who hits .330 will probably not hit .330 again the next year.

[jacksonianmarch]

He hit .342 last season.

[Cocos Disciples]

He isn't going to hit .330.

[jacksonianmarch]

Maybe not. That is why it is so fun to predict my friends. The only thing better than predicting and jawing back and forth is actually watching the games, then jawing back and forth.

[TheKilo]

Maybe not. That is why it is so fun to predict my friends. The only thing better than predicting and jawing back and forth is actually watching the games' date=' then jawing back and forth.[/quote']

 

Yeah, but if you're going to knock every prediction for the Sox, and yeah some were outrageous, you need to expect to be knocked a bit yourself.